The Next 4 years

[achdumeingute]

I am more worried about our coach being able to ice the best lineup possible without inserting his favorite plug this season. When we get a coach who can do that, I'll start worrying about 4 years from now.

Sooooooon....there will be no plugs remaining. We will be having high talent young guys playing on the 4th line. Claude Giroux was on the 3rd line in 2010...he was a very talented guy then...the team will be better being able to play top talent in lower roles.

If they continue to draft well, there is no end to the window.

 

[achdumeingute]

This whole "get assets" for Giroux just isn't a good idea. We really not get value for him...in very few instances do you see these trades work out for team trading the veteran being traded. We are better off just keeping him and hoping his elite play keeps up as long as possible.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

You could give Dave Hakstol the Red Army team & he’d still find a way to fail at optimizing the lineup.

 

[pmwlker]

Wow. My head hurts a bit after reading the last few pages. Now I’ll add my 2 cents

Giroux is still our best player and in my opinion is and has been very underrated league wide during his career. He’s our elite player if you will.

Coots is next and he’s our best 2 way player in my opinion. Was glad his offensive numbers jumped but I expected that as I always thought he could put up points with the right line mates.

Third currently I’d say is Provorov but I expect eventually he’s our best player and one of the best in the league at his position. Kids focus and dedication is unreal. He’s our franchise defender type guy.

 

[FLYERSFAN18]

Sooooooon....there will be no plugs remaining. We will be having high talent young guys playing on the 4th line. Claude Giroux was on the 3rd line in 2010...he was a very talented guy then...the team will be better being able to play top talent in lower roles.

If they continue to draft well, there is no end to the window.

I still do not trust Hakstol to make the right lineup and in game decisions. While I love our prospect pool, not everyone of them is going to turn out well and I don’t trust Hakstol to get them to their ceilings.

 

[CapnZin]

Barring any trades or such... I will give my two cents as to what this team will look like.

In 2020 I expect the SEA team to select JVR for their expansion pick and that’s my only movement for players.

Farabee - Couts - TK
Giroux - Patrick - Allison
Lindblom - Frost - Voracek
Ratcliffe - Rubtsov - Simmonds

Laughton/Vorobyev

Provorov - Ghost
Sanheim - Myers
Morin - Ginning

Hagg/Friedman

Hart
Sandstrom/Ustimenko



————— Now lets say the flyers make a couple of trades:

Giroux —> Miro Heiskanen + 1st
Voracek—> Henrik Borgstrom + Serron Noel
Simmonds —> Jonathan Dahlen

(My valuation may honestly be horrible... idk tho.)

Farabee - Couts - TK
Lindblom - Patrick - Allison
Ratcliffe - Borgstrom/Frost - Frost/Borg
Dahlen - O’Brien - Rubtsov

Provorov - Heiskanen
Ghost - Myers
Sanheim - Morin

Hart
Sandstrom/Ustimenko



My trades could be horrible, but you never know.

 

[AdamParrot]

Giroux is still our best player. 2nd in points in this decade (8 years already!), no reason trade him. He is our leader, our legend, our captain!

Our only and one problem is Dave Haktard. ONLY DAVE HAKTARD.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Giroux is still our best player. 2nd in points in this decade (8 years already!), no reason trade him. He is our leader, our legend, our captain!

Our only and one problem is Dave Haktard. ONLY DAVE HAKTARD.

And our goaltending being lackluster.
And having a very "meh"-to-bad bottom 6 (including a ? at 3C).
And a bad bottom defensive pairing.

 

[AdamParrot]

And our goaltending being lackluster.
And having a very "meh"-to-bad bottom 6 (including a ? at 3C).
And a bad bottom defensive pairing.

Where are Hart, Sandstrom, Stolarz?
What are Raffl, Frost, Simmonds, Lindblom, Laughton, Weal, NAK, Vorobyev if not good/very good bottom-six players?
What are MacDonald, P. Myers, Morin if not solid bottom Dmen?

 

[deadhead]

Where are Hart, Sandstrom, Stolarz?
What are Raffl, Frost, Simmonds, Lindblom, Laughton, Weal, NAK, Vorobyev if not good/very good bottom-six players?
What are MacDonald, P. Myers, Morin if not solid bottom Dmen?

Hart, Sandstrom - future goalies, Stolarz injured and ??? - last year Elliott, Neuvirth, Mrazek, Lyon (off two meh AHL campaigns, .912, . 913)
Raffl, Simmonds, Weal, Laughton, were available last year, Lindblom finished last year as the 2LV, NAK this year, Vorobyev this year, next January?
Frost is a top 6 player who may spend a few years as the 3C
MacDonald is a veteran 3rd pair guy, Hagg is a 6/7, Gudas is a 2nd/3rd pair guy, Sanheim and Myers are still ???

What this team will be in 2019-20 in terms of depth is far different than what it was in 2017-18 or the previous two years.
This season will be a transition year, Myers and Sanheim should be top 4 defensemen, but 2018-19? 2019-20? Not every player hits the ice flying.
Weal? Does he have a role? Raffl, Simmonds in their contract years? Laughton 4C or 4 LW? Is Frost NHL ready? Is Vorobyev NHL ready?

Next year you'll have the young guys with another year of experience, and Rubtsov, Laberge, Kase, Friedman, Bunnaman, Twarnyski available to push for bottom six jobs in camp along with Frost, Ratcliffe out of juniors and maybe Allison and Laczynski out of college. If Raffl and Simmonds both walk, Ron may bring in another veteran forward.

 

[briererocks]

One thing missing from this discussion is free agents. The flyers should have a ton of cap space especially if they trade or do not resign Simmonds. Next year Skinner is a potential free agent as is Seguin and others. The flyers could add another very good player.

Given the expansion draft rules, the free agent addition is likely a forward.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Where are Hart, Sandstrom, Stolarz?
What are Raffl, Frost, Simmonds, Lindblom, Laughton, Weal, NAK, Vorobyev if not good/very good bottom-six players?
What are MacDonald, P. Myers, Morin if not solid bottom Dmen?

1. We still don't have a goalie though. They are prospects.
2. We had arguably one of the best top-6 forward groups in the NHL but, still finished towards the middle of pack in GF. That was due to our bottom 6. They could be decent this year and great in the future but, right now they aren't too good.
3. AMac sucks. Myers and Morin are still just prospects.

Hakstol is still one of a few problems and most should be fixed internally within the next few years.

 

[deadhead]

We didn't have one of the best top 6 forward groups last year, Lindblom and Patrick were rookies and played like it, Simmonds was a 3RW.
With JVR, Patrick healthy and Lindblom with some experience, we can go 8 deep this year, 9 if we find a 3C.
Last year we were essentially 5 deep, with Raffl 6 deep. And only 4 players who were top 6 caliber.

MacDonald is a solid 3rd pair guy (as was Manning), go check what the 150th best defenseman in the NHL is really like! [Hagg or so]

 

[FlyTimmo]

We didn't have one of the best top 6 forward groups last year, Lindblom and Patrick were rookies and played like it, Simmonds was a 3RW.
With JVR, Patrick healthy and Lindblom with some experience, we can go 8 deep this year, 9 if we find a 3C.
Last year we were essentially 5 deep, with Raffl 6 deep. And only 4 players who were top 6 caliber.

MacDonald is a solid 3rd pair guy (as was Manning), go check what the 150th best defenseman in the NHL is really like! [Hagg or so]

Subtract JVR and we were still pretty good.

And no AMac is disaster when using either the eye test or advanced metrics. If you want to make the argument that he is an ok placeholder and not Hagg/Manning terrible, fine. But, lets not lie here and call him "solid"

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Where are Hart, Sandstrom, Stolarz?
What are Raffl, Frost, Simmonds, Lindblom, Laughton, Weal, NAK, Vorobyev if not good/very good bottom-six players?
What are MacDonald, P. Myers, Morin if not solid bottom Dmen?

Are these serious questions?

All of the above are currently unfit for the roles I described OR haven't proven they can do those roles yet.

 

[Flyerfan13]

Biggest question mark for me is who is our starting goalie next season. does hexy find a stop gap goalie or will carter hart , sandstrom, maybe lyon be able to handle being the starter. I was hoping for an upgrade this off season at goalie but there wasn't much available in way of an upgrade.

 

[deadhead]

Subtract JVR and we were still pretty good.

And no AMac is disaster when using either the eye test or advanced metrics. If you want to make the argument that he is an ok placeholder and not Hagg/Manning terrible, fine. But, lets not lie here and call him "solid"

162 defensemen who played 800 5x% minutes last year (which shows you that durability matters!).

Manning 0.98 pp/60 (33), Corsi 50.49 (75) CorsiRel +1.14 (59) xGF 48.89 (106) xGFrel -2.22 (123) - combined ranking 68
MacDonald 0.86 pp/60 (53) Corsi 46.50 (145) CorsiRel -3.84 (144) xGF 49.41 (96) xGFrel -1.33 (108) - 100
Hagg 0.49 pp/60 (143) Corsi 46.01 (151) CorsiRel -5.73 (156) xGF 48.15 (119) xGFrel -3.21 (136) - 141

Folin 0.71 pp/60 (90), Corsi 50.14 (81) CorsiRel -0.41 (90) xGF 50.26 (83) xGFrel +1.30 (59) - 82

[Combined score - scoring plus 1/2 each of the other rankings divided by 3, that way you don't double count for raw and relative scores]

 

[briererocks]

Biggest question mark for me is who is our starting goalie next season. does hexy find a stop gap goalie or will carter hart , sandstrom, maybe lyon be able to handle being the starter. I was hoping for an upgrade this off season at goalie but there wasn't much available in way of an upgrade.

For me the biggest issue is there pk. If you are a bottom 5 pk team it is very hard to win.

 

[FlyTimmo]

162 defensemen who played 800 5x% minutes last year (which shows you that durability matters!).

Manning 0.98 pp/60 (33), Corsi 50.49 (75) CorsiRel +1.14 (59) xGF 48.89 (106) xGFrel -2.22 (123) - combined ranking 68
MacDonald 0.86 pp/60 (53) Corsi 46.50 (145) CorsiRel -3.84 (144) xGF 49.41 (96) xGFrel -1.33 (108) - 100
Hagg 0.49 pp/60 (143) Corsi 46.01 (151) CorsiRel -5.73 (156) xGF 48.15 (119) xGFrel -3.21 (136) - 141

Folin 0.71 pp/60 (90), Corsi 50.14 (81) CorsiRel -0.41 (90) xGF 50.26 (83) xGFrel +1.30 (59) - 82

[Combined score - scoring plus 1/2 each of the other rankings divided by 3, that way you don't double count for raw and relative scores]

Not all of those metrics have equal weight when analyzing a player. Combining them doesn't necessarily give an accurate statistical view of a player.

 

[AdamParrot]

And I thought that this topic is about next 4 years, not about next season.

If is about next 4 years, my point stays.

Our only and one problem is DAVE HAKTARD.

 

[deadhead]

Not all of those metrics have equal weight when analyzing a player. Combining them doesn't necessarily give an accurate statistical view of a player.

Corsi and xGF are a good balance, one is volume of shots for and against, the other is quality.
Scoring is scoring.
No way to weight them, any weighting scheme would be arbitrary.
Reason for equal weight of raw and relative scores, on a good team it's easier to have a high Corsi/xGF, but harder to have a high relative score.
So the two balance out.

Point is, Manning was actually pretty good on advanced, stats, Chicago signed him but Nashville also wanted him - so much for the "experts" here who said he'd be out of the league.

MacDonald is about where you'd expect a #4/#5 to be, he's not good enough to be a top four, but he's a solid third pair defenseman.

Hagg is near the bottom, but there are still 10-20 defensemen worse than him playing on a regular basis.

 

[Freddy The Fog]

By 2020 I expect:

Hakstol to be named coach of the year and signed to an extended contract.
AMac to be resigned at 4 million a year for 4 more years and playing as our 3rd D
Lyon to win the Conn Smythe in our Cinderella SC Championship season.
Vinnie Lecavalier inducted into the HHOF wearing a Flyers jersey.
Neuvirth getting injured lacing on his skates in pre-season game 1.... again.

(It's the offseason....and I'm bored. )