The Next 4 years

[Alex K]

washington did not lose ovi and backstrom. They also have a hart trophy finalist goalie.

Yeah, a year ago everyone was thinking this way

 

[Jettany]

no i don't think anyone thinks this current lineup is good enough to win. Who is our 3rd line center. Who is our starting goalie. These things right now are holding us back in a major major way

We are talking about the next 4 years? Don't you think there is a chance that either Hart or Sandstrom are ready by next year 19-20 to contribute? Hart could be ready late this year after 30 AHL games. A 1-2 year window tough. Talking 4 years absolutely possible. My opinion.

 

[Jettany]

The Flyers have Claude Giroux and Jake Voracek locked up for atleast the next 4 years. I presume the next 4 years will be much more productive than the 4 years beyond that should they choose to play.

The next 4 years also give us the the advantage of having coots, and ghost locked up to extremely favorable contracts, while having a pleothera of talented young players such as nolan ,sanheim, myers , provorov, frost, lindholm, hart, konecny etc all under team control for the next 4 years.

it is quite possible that our lineup looks like this within the next 4 years.

Giroux Coots konecny
Lindblom patrick voracek
jvr frost Allison
farabee rubstov laberge


provy myers
sanheim ghost
morin ginning
friedman

hart

that would presumbably leave top prospects such as o'brien, ratcliffe, and Tanner L as guys would would not be on the roster plus a vareity of potential hidden gems we have out there.

the only player in that groupoing that does not fit the immediate time frame in which they would be needed is Hart.

I think it will take hart atleast 2 years to get up to the flyers and become a goalie that can win a cup. That means we only have a 2 year window of having our highest probability of winning a cup . I don't like the fact that hexy has been very patient with this group, drafting and developing to only have a 2 year window. I think something needs to be down to focus on this next for years. for something needs to be done to focus on the years beyond giroux and voracek.

I think signing bobrovsky gives us a chance to win immediately. Which makess Hart Expendable. Considering this roster we should have the capsapce to do it.

As much i like Carter Hart and am impressed by his ability, I don't see a time frame in which we win a cup with him and giroux on the same roster.

The Flyers paying 8+ million a year for 5+ years for a goalie who has never won a playoff series. And actually has been the hindrance for his teams playoff chances. Yep...That would play well in Philly.

 

[Jtown]

Yeah, a year ago everyone was thinking this way

i think we are in a very differnt postion than the caps were/are. We struggle to make the playoffs, they struggle getting past the pens while being president trophy contenders.

 

[Jtown]

We are talking about the next 4 years? Don't you think there is a chance that either Hart or Sandstrom are ready by next year 19-20 to contribute? Hart could be ready late this year after 30 AHL games. A 1-2 year window tough. Talking 4 years absolutely possible. My opinion.

so if hart is a viable candidate to win a cup in 2 years, then we have shortened the giroux window to 2 years.

Giroux and voracek are coming off fantastic years, why should we wait for hart to possibly become the main guy when we can acquire a goalie that that gives us a legit chance to compete now instead of elliott and neuvirth. We have been waiting in the middle for a while for things to happen. I think we are now at the point where we need to force our hand one way or another. EIther really go for it in these next 4 years, or start trading voracek and giroux and recoup assets while we can for the future core which looks to be the brightest in the nhl.

 

[deadhead]

By the time Giroux's contract expires, there will be numerous replacements available. So that's not a "deadline" at all.
This is a transition year, the kids are too young for a major push, as we saw in last year's playoff, only Couts and Provorov have turned that corner. But the team is too talented to keep "rebuilding," at some point winning begets winning.

By 2019, players like Patrick, TK, Lindblom, Sanheim, Myers will be more experienced and ready for the playoff grind, while the next wave of young players will add depth, but not be asked to carry the load.
At that point you just need a goalie to get hot, and past experience suggests that can come out of nowhere, the same way solid regular season performances don't presage good playoff goaltending.
And once you get that goalie you can trust, then you make the big push.


The 2009-10 team was a bit fluky, only had 88 points in the regular season, 232-222 GF-GA.
What got them to the SC finals was Leighton having a strong playoff 8-3, .916 while Boucher struggled 6-6, .909.
32 year old Briere played out of his gourd, 23g 12-18 30
The other key forwards, Richards, Giroux (RW), Leino, Hartnell and Gagne (Carter only played 12 games)
Pronger 29:53, Kimmo 26:38, Carle 25:54, Coburn 25:09 [Krajicek, Parent, Bartulis]

Next season they put up 106 points, 256-216 GF-GA
Bob and Boucher had solid regular seasons, .916 and .915, then .877 and .904 in the playoffs.
Giroux, Briere, JVR, Richards, Versteeg, Leino were the only forwards who stepped up, Carter was injured again, Hartnell was meh
Meszaros 26:01, Kimmo 24:54, Carle 23:24, Coburn 24:08

Point is that depth matters, both for a one year run and for the long haul.
You're gonna have bad luck with injuries (first Pronger, then Meszaros), so you need to be prepared.

 

[Jettany]

so if hart is a viable candidate to win a cup in 2 years, then we have shortened the giroux window to 2 years.

Giroux and voracek are coming off fantastic years, why should we wait for hart to possibly become the main guy when we can acquire a goalie that that gives us a legit chance to compete now instead of elliott and neuvirth. We have been waiting in the middle for a while for things to happen. I think we are now at the point where we need to force our hand one way or another. EIther really go for it in these next 4 years, or start trading voracek and giroux and recoup assets while we can for the future core which looks to be the brightest in the nhl.

I'm not sold on Bob, at all, to make a cup run. The Blue Jackets were a REALLY good team last year. Was expecting a run if Bob could hold up. He did not.

 

[Jtown]

I'm not sold on Bob, at all, to make a cup run. The Blue Jackets were a REALLY good team last year. Was expecting a run if Bob could hold up. He did not.

ok so not bob. THe point is not bob. The point of the thread is to hopefully raise awareness of the two windows sitting in front of us , and hoping Ron chooses 1 instead of maintaining status quo.

 

[Jtown]

By the time Giroux's contract expires, there will be numerous replacements available. So that's not a "deadline" at all.
This is a transition year, the kids are too young for a major push, as we saw in last year's playoff, only Couts and Provorov have turned that corner. But the team is too talented to keep "rebuilding," at some point winning begets winning.

By 2019, players like Patrick, TK, Lindblom, Sanheim, Myers will be more experienced and ready for the playoff grind, while the next wave of young players wil add depth, but not be asked to carry the load.
At that point you just need a goalie to get hot, and past experience suggests that can come out of nowhere, the same way solid regular season performances don't presage good playoff goaltending.
And once you get that goalie you can trust, then you make the big push.


The 2009-10 team was a bit fluky, only had 88 points in the regular season, 232-222 GF-GA.
What got them to the SC finals was Leighton having a strong playoff 8-3, .916 while Boucher struggled 6-6, .909.
32 year old Briere played out of his gourd, 23g 12-18 30
The other key forwards, Richards, Giroux (RW), Leino, Hartnell and Gagne (Carter only played 12 games)
Pronger 29:53, Kimmo 26:38, Carle 25:54, Coburn 25:09 [Krajicek, Parent, Bartulis]

Next season they put up 106 points, 256-216 GF-GA
Bob and Boucher had solid regular seasons, .916 and .915, then .877 and .904 in the playoffs.
Giroux, Briere, JVR, Richards, Versteeg, Leino were the only forwards who stepped up, Carter was injured again, Hartnell was meh
Meszaros 26:01, Kimmo 24:54, Carle 23:24, Coburn 24:08

Point is that depth matters, both for a one year run and for the long haul.
You're gonna have bad luck with injuries (first Pronger, then Meszaros), so you need to be prepared.

so if we don't win a cup with giroux and he leaves and or retires at the end of his contract , you are ok with that.

From a asset management stantpoint that would be a huge failure. Here you have one of the best players in the league, and instead of trying to win with him in his prime or trade him for future assets you do neither. That is worst case scenario and its exactly what you are advocating.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I don't think Laberge is going to make it

 

[Jettany]

ok so not bob. THe point is not bob. The point of the thread is to hopefully raise awareness of the two windows sitting in front of us , and hoping Ron chooses 1 instead of maintaining status quo.

Or do the Flyers potentially have TWO windows. The next 4 years with G and Jake. And another 5-8 after that because of the depth being built? Only time will tell.

 

[DancingPanther]

Bob's next contract will be ridiculous. Do not want.

Even thinking of trading Hart is mind numbing.

NEXT

 

[deadhead]

so if we don't win a cup with giroux and he leaves and or retires at the end of his contract , you are ok with that.

From a asset management standpoint that would be a huge failure. Here you have one of the best players in the league, and instead of trying to win with him in his prime or trade him for future assets you do neither. That is worst case scenario and its exactly what you are advocating.

First, given his recent playoff performances, I don't consider Giroux a key cog in a Cup run, it would be nice if he had a Briere "last hurrah" but I'm not counting on it.
Second, Giroux has a lot of value for a young team as captain, which is why I'd trade Voracek way before Giroux. Intangibles do matter.
Third, this team is in transition, it's too good to trade key veterans for draft picks, not good enough to make the big move to get over the top.

The veteran trade I'd make, as someone suggested, is Voracek (Simmonds won't get you the big haul) for a top RHD or a sniper, but that might be a one step back, two steps forward move until the young RWs are ready. Simmonds won't get a lot, and Giroux won't get what he's worth to the transition (he takes the pressure off the kids for a couple years, allowing them to mature).

You don't win with one or two very good (or even great, Crosby and Malkin) players - you win with a TEAM.
Hextall is building a deep, talented TEAM, you don't mess that up by trying to win now.

 

[deadhead]

I don't think Laberge is going to make it

The reason you have an AHL team, and want that team in the AHL playoffs each year, is to both develop your young players and identify the players most likely to help your team over the next few years.

Laberge was a talented player, he may still become a talented player, it costs the organization little to give him a year or two in LHV to find out.

It's going to be fun watching the Phantoms the next few years to gauge the progress of our prospects, except for someone like Frost in the CHL or Lindblom in the SHL, most prospects don't dominate at a young age, so it takes time to see if they're for real.

 

[Jtown]

Or do the Flyers potentially have TWO windows. The next 4 years with G and Jake. And another 5-8 after that because of the depth being built? Only time will tell.

I like how you think. But what if instead of having two small windows, you could combine the two and have a big window. That is what i am trying to discuss here.


Let's talk about JVR and the 2010 stanley cup run. Other than that flukey goal in game 7 against the bruins , JVR had no real impact on that run. Here we had a prime asset a 2nd overall pick and he was basically a non factor. What if instead of trying to win now and trying to win later, we went all out and tried to win now and trade JVR for win now assets. Chances are we would have had a much better chance to win.

Gm's today try to win now , try to win later and its a huge mistake and its a mistake I hope Ron does not make. Another Great examples are the phillies if you are familiar with baseball.

 

[Jtown]

First, given his recent playoff performances, I don't consider Giroux a key cog in a Cup run, it would be nice if he had a Briere "last hurrah" but I'm not counting on it.
Second, Giroux has a lot of value for a young team as captain, which is why I'd trade Voracek way before Giroux. Intangibles do matter.
Third, this team is in transition, it's too good to trade key veterans for draft picks, not good enough to make the big move to get over the top.

The veteran trade I'd make, as someone suggested, is Voracek (Simmonds won't get you the big haul) for a top RHD or a sniper, but that might be a one step back, two steps forward move until the young RWs are ready. Simmonds won't get a lot, and Giroux won't get what he's worth to the transition (he takes the pressure off the kids for a couple years, allowing them to mature).

You don't win with one or two very good (or even great, Crosby and Malkin) players - you win with a TEAM.
Hextall is building a deep, talented TEAM, you don't mess that up by trying to win now.

That captain comment is bs. WHo was Toews captain when he came into the league, or eichel , or mcdavid, or matthews. None of that stuff matters. I agree , ahving depth is the key to winning, but we currently don't have depth and our depth is not going to make a major impat until giroux is gone. So why even hold onto him. Put the C on couturier for all i care trade giroux to a team that is making a push to win it all like Tampa Bay and get what you can.

 

[Lindberg]

Trading Giroux and Voracek is how you end up with a team like Edmonton. This team is finally trending upwards I'd rather not go backwards. Regardless the flyers have plenty of assets, cap space, and the right contracts for the transition in the future. Solving the defense (P Myers? and everyone else being older) and even strength scoring (hopefully with JVR and Frost?) will improve this team a lot.

Hakstol needs to not run his goalies into the ground and Lappy needs to be fired. I don't think Elliot isn't the worst goaltender either, he just needs to play well enough. Looking back at Chicago they won with some crappy goaltenders.

 

[Psuhockey]

The Flyers window likely doesn’t open up for a couple of seasons but that doesn’t mean you have to dump Giroux and Voracek now. They can be moved later when there are young guys ready to take their place. With the size of their contracts, Hextall won’t be getting better returns this summers as opposed to later on. Teams aren’t moving multiple top assets for players anymore especially elite prospects. The ROR and McDonagh trades showed that once again. So any Giroux or Voracek trade would likely be a 1st rd pick and a bunch of “B” grade assetts like second level prospects or 2nd rd picks and in all likelihood some cap dumps. Outside of the 1st rd pick, none of that has any worth to the Flyers. They can still get a 1st for Giroux or Voracek is 3 years

 

[Lindberg]

Gotta say deadhead is making a lot of sense in this thread, must have laid off the brown acid this morning.

 

[bauer]

we're not trading Giroux. he'll get every opportunity to retire a Flyer. also, his contract is not tied to us making a cup run. they are two separate things.

by the time this team is in major cup contention mode, Giroux and Voracek will be supporting players, similar to the way Hossa and Kessel were in Chicago and Pittsburgh. they will not be our core at that point. this team's future at forward is built around Couturier/Patrick/Konecny/Frost/Farabee, etc. the plan is to win way beyond having those two in our lineup.

when they're in the final year of their contracts, then we can see how they're playing and if they're worth trading or re-signing. but that's many years away. not even worth discussing now. lots will change by then. 100% they're not getting traded anytime soon. nor should they be. Hextall wants this team to be competitive while the youth develops.

 

[deadhead]

The timetable on the transition is always uncertain, some players, disappoint, some mature early, some are "flashes in the pan" (Leino, one great playoff series, followed by a 53 point season and then mediocrity).
Teams that try to rush these things usually screw up, we added JVR at a reasonable cost, we'll probably make another move next summer.

Looking at our potential depth, at some point we'll have to "fish or cut bait" with a number of prospects, and at that point I can see a 1st rd pick and 3 solid prospects in a package for a top player at a position of need - but we'll need a couple years to sort out who is a core player and who is expendable - and the players will tell us that by their performance on ice.

Allison/Laczynski are a perfect example, both PFs at RW (in fact, Laczynski actually looked bigger in their photo), will there be room for both without trading Voracek? So either Voracek or one of them is in a trade package in 2020? But would you want to make that decision before then? And if one won't come out next year you'll have to pull a Marody trade to get value back. And what if Kase turns out better than his older brother?

Right now there are too many unknowns, how fast will Farabee and O'Brien develop? Is Frost ready to step in this year, next year? Will Ratcliffe build on last year and jump right to the NHL in 2019-20? Are Rubtsov and Laberge busts or just late bloomers who may turn it on in LHV this year? Will Lyon and Hart take over in 2019? Will we sign/trade for a veteran goalie?

Whether you keep them or trade them, we need more information.

 

[renberg]

i think we are in a very differnt postion than the caps were/are. We struggle to make the playoffs, they struggle getting past the pens while being president trophy contenders.

That's in the past. This is now. Looking at the rosters of teams today, I'd say that the Flyers are shoe ins to make the POs next season. They're greatly improved up front and by mid season on the defense will solidify and be much better than what went on last season due to experience and no Manning.
The goal tending, while not great, should be better. (It wouldn't surprise me to see Hextall add someone like Lehtonen and move Neuvirth out of here. A lot depends on Elliot's recovery from surgery. Lehtonen/Lyon does more for me than Elliott/Neuvirth)
Pittsburgh isn't getting any younger or better. Washington took some major hits this off season-don't underestimate the impact of losing Trotz. The Flyers should win at least two PO series next spring. Their young players are coming and they're good.

 

[captainpaxil]

I've said before that i see the real window opening next year. That gives us 3 legitimate shots with g to win a cup. He's a real deal top line player but has never been the playoff performer briere was. We'll get to see this season who those guys are that find that next gear for the playoffs and adjust accordingly. Oddly after this phantoms run i kinda see Lyon as one of those guys and i hope he can secure a job in camp.

 

[Tripod]

Giroux has 4 years left
Voracek has 6 years left

We can afford to be patient, keep developing, and keep adding like we did JVR this year. Yes we have no #3 C right now. But the offseason just started. We do have Frost who is likely 1 year away, so it's not dire straits. It's not money for nothing.

This time next year, the #3 spot could be filled. Sanheim and Myers could have the top 4 D filled.

They are all very close. They could ALL have them filled this coming year.

Now in goal, that is a different story. Hart is still likely 3 years from being a starter. If we can trade for a real #1 goalie to bridge the gap, go do it. Waiting 1 year on a forward/D is totally different than waiting 3 on a goalie. Personally, I don't go near Bob who will we looking at a Price like contract for his 30's.

Hopefully Hextall keeps looking to add NOW. He doesn't need to break the bank but adding a good goalie and a #3 C for this year really helps the team take steps forward. Mind you at ES, our goalies have been fine for years, so maybe it's just the PK.

 

[NYCFlyer]

That's in the past. This is now. Looking at the rosters of teams today, I'd say that the Flyers are shoe ins to make the POs next season. They're greatly improved up front and by mid season on the defense will solidify and be much better than what went on last season due to experience and no Manning.
The goal tending, while not great, should be better. (It wouldn't surprise me to see Hextall add someone like Lehtonen and move Neuvirth out of here. A lot depends on Elliot's recovery from surgery. Lehtonen/Lyon does more for me than Elliott/Neuvirth)
Pittsburgh isn't getting any younger or better. Washington took some major hits this off season-don't underestimate the impact of losing Trotz. The Flyers should win at least two PO series next spring. Their young players are coming and they're good.

I would be pleasantly surprised to see us win a PO series next year but ALOT would have to go right for that to happen. I think there are five more talented teams than us in the conference. Some of those would have to have some key injuries and we would have to finish ahead of either the Caps or Pens who are the last three SC champs. Our D and G is just not strong enough for that to be a likely scenario without a few trades.