The Never-Too-Early 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Were not picking at 31

[SprDaVE]

Interesting tidbit from Jonas Siegel regarding Dubas and the draft. Said that Dubas thinks some scouts get swayed way too much by WJC performances

I mean, GMs overall will defend their "prospect pool" and overall draft selections for a lot of different reasons but I think really hit the nail when he talked about recency bias and what it can do to sway opinions on a prospect.

I think those comments were a lot more directed at the Sandin versus Liljegren thing a lot of people seem to be pushing these days.

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

I mean, GMs overall will defend their "prospect pool" and overall draft selections for a lot of different reasons but I think really hit the nail when he talked about recency bias and what it can do to sway opinions on a prospect.

I think those comments were a lot more directed at the Sandin versus Liljegren thing a lot of people seem to be pushing these days.

I think that's what it was about as well. That and all the "experts" who all came out with lists recently that omitted Liljegren while WJC players were all ranked incredibly high. I think Dubas (and other GMs) realize context is important and things such as Liljegren playing bigger minutes and tougher match-ups really do matter and not just production at a glance.

 

[stickty111]

Simmonds completely changed his stance on the trade down when it worked out.

 

[93LEAFS]

Simmonds completely changed his stance on the trade down when it worked out.

Dermott was still the Hunter pick there. But, he would have taken Konecny and didn't want to trade down. He blamed Dubas for the trade down, not who was taken.

 

[93LEAFS]

HockeyProspect.com released their January list today. Here's the top 10. Top 31 is available for free, the full 65 is available to people with membership to the site.

HockeyProspect.com 2019 NHL Draft Top 31, January - HockeyProspect.com

1: Jack Hughes
2: Kaapo Kakko
3: Vasili Podkolzin
4: Alex Turcotte
5: Matthew Boldy
6: Trevor Zegras
7: Peyton Krebs
8: Kirby Dach
9: Dylan Cozens
10: Spencer Knight

 

[Peasy]

Knight at 10?

Yikes.

Goalies are too much of a gamble to be taking that high imo.

 

[stickty111]

Dermott was still the Hunter pick there. But, he would have taken Konecny and didn't want to trade down. He blamed Dubas for the trade down, not who was taken.

Fair enough.
I do agree with you. Just pointing the different direction Simmonds went in after Dermott worked out. Humter was in charge of the draft, and Dubas was managing the trades.

 

[93LEAFS]

Fair enough.
I do agree with you. Just pointing the different direction Simmonds went in after Dermott worked out. Humter was in charge of the draft, and Dubas was managing the trades.

To an extent. It was pretty much a split, with Shanahan being the deciding vote on which pitch he liked more when it came to the trade down stuff. For example, trading down with the Marner pick isn't something Dubas could have done unilaterally. Pretty sure because of how heated it got, that is why Lou was brought in. Shanahan realized he didn't do enough day to day hockey stuff to be the deciding vote on these issues, so he brought in the best person he could find.

Media guys will always spin stuff in a positive direction for people who help them out. Mirtle does the same for Dubas. It's just how the industry works.

 

[93LEAFS]

Knight at 10?

Yikes.

Goalies are too much of a gamble to be taking that high imo.

It's a risk, but its due to this draft being pretty void of close to sure things after 9. This draft is really questionable.

 

[Knies iT]

HockeyProspect.com released their January list today. Here's the top 10. Top 31 is available for free, the full 65 is available to people with membership to the site.

HockeyProspect.com 2019 NHL Draft Top 31, January - HockeyProspect.com

1: Jack Hughes
2: Kaapo Kakko
3: Vasili Podkolzin
4: Alex Turcotte
5: Matthew Boldy
6: Trevor Zegras
7: Peyton Krebs
8: Kirby Dach
9: Dylan Cozens
10: Spencer Knight

No Byram in the top 10? That's...odd. I'd take him as high as 3rd overall. By far the best defender in this draft.

 

[93LEAFS]

No Byram in the top 10? That's...odd. I'd take him as high as 3rd overall. By far the best defender in this draft.

Well, they still have him as the best defender in the draft. He's just ranked 11th.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

Any opinions on Michael Vukojevic from the Kitchener Rangers?
I think he'd be a potential steal in the 3rd, I'd even be happy with him in the 2nd round.

- He showed a ton of promise in his first (3/4) season in the OHL, was a total rock on the backend for a deep playoff run.
- Took a step back for the first half of this season, (albeit on a team with poor defence overall, played lower than expected pp time and plays under a coaching group that hasn't had a great recent record of developing individual players into stars).
- He finally has been giving free reign to display his offensive skillset and is rebounding in recent weeks... also plays with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and can throw his weight around pretty good.

Despite not putting up flashy offensive numbers... I really like this kid's tools, I think he's a prime candidate to have a breakout draft+1 year. When he's engaged, I see a potential NHL 2nd pairing all around d-man with some size and snarl.

Reminds me of Rasanen a lot.

 

[Prodigy MayD]

To an extent. It was pretty much a split, with Shanahan being the deciding vote on which pitch he liked more when it came to the trade down stuff. For example, trading down with the Marner pick isn't something Dubas could have done unilaterally. Pretty sure because of how heated it got, that is why Lou was brought in. Shanahan realized he didn't do enough day to day hockey stuff to be the deciding vote on these issues, so he brought in the best person he could find.

Media guys will always spin stuff in a positive direction for people who help them out. Mirtle does the same for Dubas. It's just how the industry works.

With the Marner pick (Hunter), Babcock wanted Hanifin and Dubas wanted Proverov or Werenski.
People that question Hunter's draft guru is mistaken though. Bracco/Dermott/Grundstrom/Woll/Scott are all looking highly promising.

 

[Kiwi]

HockeyProspect.com released their January list today. Here's the top 10. Top 31 is available for free, the full 65 is available to people with membership to the site.

HockeyProspect.com 2019 NHL Draft Top 31, January - HockeyProspect.com

1: Jack Hughes
2: Kaapo Kakko
3: Vasili Podkolzin
4: Alex Turcotte
5: Matthew Boldy
6: Trevor Zegras
7: Peyton Krebs
8: Kirby Dach
9: Dylan Cozens
10: Spencer Knight

Jesus

I can't say I'm impressed with anybody in the 20's

Those names don't look particularly appetizing

 

[93LEAFS]

Jesus

I can't say I'm impressed with anybody in the 20's

Those names don't look particularly appetizing

I generally believe after 10 to 15 all drafts are pretty much the same, outside of extreme outliers (see 2015 and 2003). Past 15 or so it's pretty much a crap shoot. Generally, there are around the same amount of high-end players from about 10th overall on. Although, I agree, that I can't identify anyone in the 20's I like as a sleeper pick to reach it. Sometimes the elite guy outside the top 10 is number 11 like Kopitar, other times its Kucherov in the late 2nd or Gaudreau in the 4th.

 

[Kiwi]

I generally believe after 10 to 15 all drafts are pretty much the same, outside of extreme outliers (see 2015 and 2003). Past 15 or so it's pretty much a crap shoot. Generally, there are around the same amount of high-end players from about 10th overall on. Although, I agree, that I can't identify anyone in the 20's I like as a sleeper pick to reach it. Sometimes the elite guy outside the top 10 is number 11 like Kopitar, other times its Kucherov in the late 2nd or Gaudreau in the 4th.

I usually find a player or two I like in the 20's but I just don't see it in that mock

If there's anybody interesting you like around the 20's in that mock I'd like to see hear it

It would give me someone to look up anyway

 

[93LEAFS]

I usually find a player or two I like in the 20's but I just don't see it in that mock

If there's anybody interesting you like around the 20's in that mock I'd like to see hear it

It would give me someone to look up anyway

I'm curious to see how Bob's list looks tomorrow. That will give me more ideas about consensus than rankings lists. I'm intrigued by Seider and Soderstrom for example who I've seen in the 20's in certain places but are top 20 here.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Perfect draft to trade the pick

 

[SeaOfBlue]

HockeyProspect.com released their January list today. Here's the top 10. Top 31 is available for free, the full 65 is available to people with membership to the site.

HockeyProspect.com 2019 NHL Draft Top 31, January - HockeyProspect.com

1: Jack Hughes
2: Kaapo Kakko
3: Vasili Podkolzin
4: Alex Turcotte
5: Matthew Boldy
6: Trevor Zegras
7: Peyton Krebs
8: Kirby Dach
9: Dylan Cozens
10: Spencer Knight

That is one... Interesting list.

 

[Duffman955]

Perfect draft to trade the pick

Ya after the top 15ish the draft doesnt seem great

 

[93LEAFS]

That is one... Interesting list.

I trust them, especially on OHL guys.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I trust them, especially on OHL guys.

There are not many great OHL guys, but Suzuki and Kaliyev should be higher. Kaliyev is not even on the list.

Spencer Knight is also no where near good enough to be taken in the top 10 as a goalie. Neither is Hunter Jones to be taken in the first round.

Honestly, if this was a reflection on the real draft, I'd want to trade down to try and get of the guys who dropped, because there will be some major steals in that 2nd round.

 

[93LEAFS]

There are not many great OHL guys, but Suzuki and Kaliyev should be higher. Kaliyev is not even on the list.

Spencer Knight is also no where near good enough to be taken in the top 10 as a goalie. Neither is Hunter Jones to be taken in the first round.

Honestly, if this was a reflection on the real draft, I'd want to trade down to try and get of the guys who dropped, because there will be some major steals in that 2nd round.

Kaliyev is a one trick pony who isn't a great skater. I don't think his game will carry over. If his scoring does, he'll prove people wrong, but he can easily be an AHL lifer. Suzuki is so overrated around here it is ridiculous. The kid is passive as hell, and doesn't impose his will at all on games. Just look at tonight, instead of driving the net, he just tries to wait for the trailer and messes up a 2 on 1. The kid doesn't try to impose his will on a game at all. And, I don't mean in a physical way, but in a way like Marner who is trying to generate chances every time he has the puck and driving play forward. Compare that to how someone like Pelletier plays.

Knight is the best NA goalie prospect since Price. I wouldn't take him top 10, but there's a pretty big drop off around 10 in this draft. So, I could see a team chancing it.

I don't see anyone in the 2nd who I would label a major steal. But, I'm not a Kaliyev fan. The CHL talent in this draft is really sub-par, and I think that is getting overvalued.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Kaliyev is a one trick pony who isn't a great skater. I don't think his game will carry over. If his scoring does, he'll prove people wrong, but he can easily be an AHL lifer. Suzuki is so overrated around here it is ridiculous. The kid is passive as hell, and doesn't impose his will at all on games. Just look at tonight, instead of driving the net, he just tries to wait for the trailer and messes up a 2 on 1. The kid doesn't try to impose his will on a game at all. And, I don't mean in a physical way, but in a way like Marner who is trying to generate chances every time he has the puck and driving play forward. Compare that to how someone like Pelletier plays.

Knight is the best NA goalie prospect since Price. I wouldn't take him top 10, but there's a pretty big drop off around 10 in this draft. So, I could see a team chancing it.

I don't see anyone in the 2nd who I would label a major steal. But, I'm not a Kaliyev fan. The CHL talent in this draft is really sub-par, and I think that is getting overvalued.

Poulin, Vlasic and Harley are three that would easily come to mind if they slip out of the 1st round. Definitely better than the likes of Rhett Pitlick and Simon Holmstrom, who should not even be considered top 60 picks at this point. Kaliyev should also easily be a 1st round pick, regardless of his issues. He is easily top 10 in terms of pure offensive talent, if not close to the top 5. Foote has a good argument himself, but I can see him dropping to the early 2nd and I personally would not draft him. I like Beecher, Poulin and potentially Lavoie/Kaliyev a lot more. I do not see guys like Knyazev and Bjornfot being 1st rounders anymore, but I think they'll provide a ton of great value as 2nd rounders. I am also somewhat surprised Ryder Donovan does not get as much attention as he did earlier on. There are some good high school players this year, but I think Donovan is by far the best.

I am not going to say this is 2015 or anything, but I think there is a lot more talent here than people are seeing. There may not be many elite-potential type guys after the top 15 or so, but you can find guys in the Sandin and Dermott tier well into the 2nd round, and some will easily slip into the 3rd as well. It's another draft where the Leafs should trade down, but that 1st should still be highly valued.

 

[93LEAFS]

Poulin, Vlasic and Harley are three that would easily come to mind if they slip out of the 1st round. Definitely better than the likes of Rhett Pitlick and i, who should not even be considered top 60 picks at this point. Kaliyev should also easily be a 1st round pick, regardless of his issues. He is easily top 10 in terms of pure offensive talent, if not close to the top 5. Foote has a good argument himself, but I can see him dropping to the early 2nd and I personally would not draft him. I like Beecher, Poulin and potentially Lavoie/Kaliyev a lot more. I do not see guys like Knyazev and Bjornfot being 1st rounders anymore, but I think they'll provide a ton of great value as 2nd rounders. I am also somewhat surprised Ryder Donovan does not get as much attention as he did earlier on. There are some good high school players this year, but I think Donovan is by far the best.

I am not going to say this is 2015 or anything, but I think there is a lot more talent here than people are seeing. There may not be many elite-potential type guys after the top 15 or so, but you can find guys in the Sandin and Dermott tier well into the 2nd round, and some will easily slip into the 3rd as well. It's another draft where the Leafs should trade down, but that 1st should still be highly valued.

I don't agree with your assessment of Kaliyev. He has a great shot, and can score in close. Outside, I see an extremely flawed player. If he hits, he'll hit as a 30 goal guy, but otherwise, he's an AHLer.

Harley is a mess in his own end.

And, have you actually seen Rhett Pitlick? I haven't, so, I don' think I can say that is good or bad just by looking at Elite.

I think this draft is really sub-par past the top 10. Its probably better than 2017, 2014 and 2012, but I don't think its much better than other years in recent memory. I simply don't see that depth.

You find good players in the 2nd or later every draft. I don't think this draft has easily identifiable guys though.