Injury Report: The lottery thread of misery and doom! 2023 edition

[Bench]

Haha, yeah I get it.

I mean it could be sooner! That's the goal for Yzerman, I'm sure. But if we think guys like Kasper, Cossa, and Seider are the core, then it wouldn't be unusual for this team to fully peak in another 6-7 seasons.

Presumably there's some other top talent added along the way in that time, obviously.

That's when it happened for Tampa and Hedman, Vasi, and company. Unfortunately the prospect pool was so depleted that Larkin being drafted can't really count as the "start" of the rebuild. It's really more the 2019 Seider draft.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

This is a super insulated take.

Do you have any idea how popular college football is in America, particularly the Southern United States? It's basically religion.

Mario Lemieux? He's only big in hockey circles. That's gonna be a Mario Lewho compared to Payton Manning.

Even busts like Baker Mayfield are going to be infinitely more recognizable and popular than Tavares. Nobody outside of hockey nerds knows who he is or Bedard.

I am a massive CFB fan, in fact more so than an NHL fan by some measure. Obviously football is a much more popular sport so any half decent NFL prospect gets a lot more ink in the U.S. media than any hockey prospect. But that's also totally irrelevant to the point because that isn't related to media attention.

It concerns the importance given to being able to draft a particular player and the awareness of the availability of said player in a given draft. This just isn't the case in football. No-one would have destroyed their roster just to land Baker Mayfield or even Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow ended up the clearcut number one in 2020 but by the time that became apparent, the NFL season was already at least 3/4 in. The big QBs were supposed to be Tua and Justin Herbert in that draft. They didn't even get taken at #2 and #3.

Meanwhile the biggest name QB in the league today is Patrick Mahomes who wasn't even a big name player in college and only known by the more devoted fans. The fact he was taken top 10 at all was down to the pre-draft scouting process (which is totally divorced from the CFB performance evaluation). With CFB teams having such uneven talent, facing uneven competition and using QBs in very different roles, it's almost impossible to just use CFB performance and extrapolate NFL success from that. Bama has had many QBs who were total non-factors for the NFL. The combine, the workouts, the interviews affect things so much and they all happen way after the NFL season is over.

Meanwhile in hockey you have prospects that are penciled in as no.1 for their draft year literally years in advance. How long have we been talking about Bedard? How long were people talking about Crosby and McDavid? Everyone knew this was the Bedard year. There were threads about tanking for Bedard well before the season. It's much more like basketball that way where people often can already tell great NBA prospects when they're underclassmen in High School.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Haha, yeah I get it.

I mean it could be sooner! That's the goal for Yzerman, I'm sure. But if we think guys like Kasper, Cossa, and Seider are the core, then it wouldn't be unusual for this team to fully peak in another 6-7 seasons.

Presumably there's some other top talent added along the way in that time, obviously.

That's when it happened for Tampa and Hedman, Vasi, and company. Unfortunately the prospect pool was so depleted that Larkin being drafted can't really count as the "start" of the rebuild. It's really more the 2019 Seider draft.

yeah, honestly when I first saw 2030 my reaction was "that's insane! that's forever!" then realized the 2030 season is in less than 7 years away.

Not what I'm hoping for, but not insane in terms of being a serious Cup contender.

 

[dalem177]

The hickey Gods were sure smiling on the Hawks, after all,

Just wear a high-necked sweater.

 

[ricky0034]

i'd take a 2030 contender in a second as someone that thinks that will take till more like 2050

 

[Bench]

Meanwhile in hockey you have prospects that are penciled in as no.1 for their draft year literally years in advance. How long have we been talking about Bedard?

OK but that literally just happened with Trevor Lawrence. He's been talked about as the top QB since he was a teenager. It was one of the first things they kept asking him about after he was picked #1 overall.

And there's just as many examples people have already provided for you. Payton Manning. Eli Manning. Andrew Luck. Even non-QB Clowney was a freak athlete people were noticing as a young teen.

During and throughout the entirety of his middle school and high school career, Clowney was often regarded as the best player in his class. ESPN described him as "a special talent who could have vied for the top spot in several previous classes".[10] Both major recruiting services, Rivals.com and Scout.com, as well as ESPNU, considered Clowney not only a five-star recruit, but also the No. 1 overall prospect of the 2011 class, basically throughout his senior year.

So yeah, years and years of hype and attention for Clowney. It started in MIDDLE school.

I guess I don't understand why you think it's different?

 

[norrisnick]

i'd take a 2030 contender in a second as someone that thinks that will take till more like 2050

If that is truly what you believe, why are you even here? I took a few years off when the post-Lidstrom years got too bad. There's a glimmer of hope with the kids and I'm back as I'm ever the optimist. But if I didn't think anyone currently on the team or drafted in the rest of this decade or the next can help make the Wings a contender I sure as shit wouldn't be wasting my time around here.

 

[Bench]

If that is truly what you believe, why are you even here? I took a few years off when the post-Lidstrom years got too bad. There's a glimmer of hope with the kids and I'm back as I'm ever the optimist. But if I didn't think anyone currently on the team or drafted in the rest of this decade or the next can help make the Wings a contender I sure as shit wouldn't be wasting my time around here.

He's probably just waiting for some of us to die.

 

[ricky0034]

If that is truly what you believe, why are you even here? I took a few years off when the post-Lidstrom years got too bad. There's a glimmer of hope with the kids and I'm back as I'm ever the optimist. But if I didn't think anyone currently on the team or drafted in the rest of this decade or the next can help make the Wings a contender I sure as shit wouldn't be wasting my time around here.

I mean there's always the chance i'm wrong, who knows maybe someone like Lombardi randomly becomes a superstar or the Wings trade up for Michkov or the Wings win one of these 10% or whatever lotteries one of these days or someone like Matthews signs here in free agency for some inexplicable reason or something

you're definitely right in that i'm not nearly as mentally invested as I was say a decade ago though

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

OK but that literally just happened with Trevor Lawrence. He's been talked about as the top QB since he was a teenager. It was one of the first things they kept asking him about after he was picked #1 overall.

And there's just as many examples people have already provided for you. Payton Manning. Eli Manning. Andrew Luck. Even non-QB Clowney was a freak athlete people were noticing as a young teen.

During and throughout the entirety of his middle school and high school career, Clowney was often regarded as the best player in his class. ESPN described him as "a special talent who could have vied for the top spot in several previous classes".[10] Both major recruiting services, Rivals.com and Scout.com, as well as ESPNU, considered Clowney not only a five-star recruit, but also the No. 1 overall prospect of the 2011 class, basically throughout his senior year.

So yeah, years and years of hype and attention for Clowney. It started in MIDDLE school.

I guess I don't understand why you think it's different?

The deciding element here is the difference between picking #1, #2, #3 or #4 as seen from the perspective of say the first two months of the preceding pro season. An NFL team in October 2022 isn't so sure about who they'd want to pick at #1 and what that guy's impact would be to make major decisions on the back of trying to obtain that #1 pick. And remember the only real sure way to get that #1 pick in the NFL is to not win any games. So really that's a choice you gotta make pretty early in the year.

In the NHL meanwhile you got the perception that a pick like Crosby or McDavid or Bedard can be the difference between winning Cups and raising banners on the one hand and continued failure (with key decision-makers losing their jobs) on the other hand. And people are pretty sure of that even in the summer before the draft. If the difference between that kind of generational talent and a Bobby Ryan or Jack Eichel is just playing a few more minor leaguers to lose 5-10 more games then what GM wouldn't do it?

 

[jkutswings]

yeah, honestly when I first saw 2030 my reaction was "that's insane! that's forever!" then realized the 2030 season is in less than 7 years away.

Not what I'm hoping for, but not insane in terms of being a serious Cup contender.

I don't think it's unreasonable to guess that Detroit could PEAK around 2030 (or just before).
But that also means they make the playoffs in the next year or so and take a few years to learn how to win in the playoffs.

So it could be a little of both, with the Wings pushing for a playoff spot next year, winning a round or two in 2025-26, and really hitting their stride in 2027-30, with a Cup 7 years from now.

 

[Bench]

The deciding element here is the difference between picking #1, #2, #3 or #4 as seen from the perspective of say the first two months of the preceding pro season. An NFL team in October 2022 isn't so sure about who they'd want to pick at #1 and what that guy's impact would be to make major decisions on the back of trying to obtain that #1 pick. And remember the only real sure way to get that #1 pick in the NFL is to not win any games. So really that's a choice you gotta make pretty early in the year.

I'm baffled how you come to this conclusion after this NFL draft just happened...

You realize the #1 overall pick was traded this year? For an actual king's ransom.

The full package of assets sent to Chicago reads like a shopping list: the ninth-overall pick this year, a second-round selection in 2023 (No. 61 overall originally from the 49ers), a first-round pick in 2024, a second-round pick in 2025, and Moore, a receiver who just completed the first year of a three-year, $61.88 million contract with the Panthers.

This would be the equivalent to an NHL team giving up like FOUR first round picks for one player.

You don't think the Carolina Panthers are banking on Bryce Young changing their franchise after that commitment? What?

Oh by the way, Bryce Young was also highly scouted and hyped by literally everyone as a teenager.

As a senior, he was the Los Angeles Times Player of the Year and California's Gatorade Football Player of the Year after throwing for 4,528 yards and 58 touchdowns.[6][7] He was also the USA Today High School Offensive Player of the Year.[8] During his high school career he passed for 13,520 yards and 152 touchdowns and was a five star recruit ranked the nations #1 quarterback prospect and second overall recruit.[9][10] After originally committing to USC to play football, Young instead decided to play at Alabama.[11][12][13][14]

I'm sorry man, I'm trying to understand where you're coming from but it feels like you can't see these are essentially the same thing. Bryce Young isn't any different from Eric Lindros here.

 

[Gniwder]

This draft looks good, but it's going to take a while to know if the depth outside of the top 4-5 guys is anything special.

2003 draft is widely considered one of the best ever and it's not because the very top was elite. Fleury, Staal, Horton and Zherdev doesn't sound that impressive, but the depth was.

Who cares about 4-5, we're gonna win the lottery in 2025. Misa gonna be a Red Wing.

That also means I anticipate the team sucking for couple more years, lol. Unfortunately, I think that's what it's gonna take for the Wings to become a contender. As much as I want Auston Pornstache, he's not gonna leave Toronto.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

OK but that literally just happened with Trevor Lawrence. He's been talked about as the top QB since he was a teenager. It was one of the first things they kept asking him about after he was picked #1 overall.

And there's just as many examples people have already provided for you. Payton Manning. Eli Manning. Andrew Luck. Even non-QB Clowney was a freak athlete people were noticing as a young teen.

During and throughout the entirety of his middle school and high school career, Clowney was often regarded as the best player in his class. ESPN described him as "a special talent who could have vied for the top spot in several previous classes".[10] Both major recruiting services, Rivals.com and Scout.com, as well as ESPNU, considered Clowney not only a five-star recruit, but also the No. 1 overall prospect of the 2011 class, basically throughout his senior year.

So yeah, years and years of hype and attention for Clowney. It started in MIDDLE school.

I guess I don't understand why you think it's different?

Stafford is another one that was a #1 draft pick clear back to high school in terms of knowledge.

This exists in all of the major sports really. I think baseball is probably your best argument but it happens there too in terms of certain guys over the years being the known draft pick for years.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Guess I'll come back later.

 

[Oddbob]

If there wasn't a salary cap floor, I think you would have more of a point. The salary cap floor is going to insulate you from having more substantially terrible play than what we get already. And regardless of if there is a lottery or not, they should really consider making it illegal to do what Arizona does as far as taking on retired players contracts to get to the cap floor.

That is going to protect you from having teams as bad as what you suggest.

I disagree on the hype with NFL prospects, but don't need to die on that hill. Andrew Luck was incredibly hyped if you go back and look at any articles from that time frame. I think the same will happen next year with this USC kid.

I don't pay attention to the NFL at all and even I heard the hype around Andrew Luck.

For real. Colorado had quite a long rebuild as well.

They are a team we all admire now but that was a nearly 15 year process. Landeskog was picked at #2 overall in 2011.

Looking at other teams, it wouldn't be weird at all for the Wings to be fully ready in like... 2030.

Also, interesting they already had MacKinnon for 3 full seasons when they had their brutal season in 16-17. I think people forget stuff like this, because the Avs and MacKinnon have been so good since. You can already have franchise level talent for the future in your lineup and still be bad for a bit.

I mean there's always the chance i'm wrong, who knows maybe someone like Lombardi randomly becomes a superstar or the Wings trade up for Michkov or the Wings win one of these 10% or whatever lotteries one of these days or someone like Matthews signs here in free agency for some inexplicable reason or something

you're definitely right in that i'm not nearly as mentally invested as I was say a decade ago though

No matter who you draft, eventually you/we need the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders etc., to pop out some great surprises. None of the good teams have just the 1st round as their only reason for being good. You get 1 or 2 of the lower picks hitting and being big parts of a team and your whole build looks way different. Problem for us, is we haven't had any stars outside the 1st round in a very long time.

 

[heyfolks]

I need clarification before I tear your post to shreds

Dump the draft. Have the UFA and former draft begin on the same day. The only restriction is you can't exceed your cap.

Chicago dumps players to get cap room and sign Bedard for 12x8. This then limits their ability to be major players for the top talent in the next draft, as their eat up their cap space.

You can also stagger the entry UFA period with the League UFA period for more off season fan engagement.

 

[Retire91]

Dump the draft. Have the UFA and former draft begin on the same day. The only restriction is you can't exceed your cap.

Chicago dumps players to get cap room and sign Bedard for 12x8. This then limits their ability to be major players for the top talent in the next draft, as their eat up their cap space.

You can also stagger the entry UFA period with the League UFA period for more off season fan engagement.

The amount of terrible contracts produced by this system would be astounding. Yakupov would still be making like 8 mill

 

[jaster]

For real. Colorado had quite a long rebuild as well.

They are a team we all admire now but that was a nearly 15 year process. Landeskog was picked at #2 overall in 2011.

Looking at other teams, it wouldn't be weird at all for the Wings to be fully ready in like... 2030.

In the poll I started about a month ago, I selected 2027/28-2029/30 as Detroit's most likely prime 3-year window. So yeah, I don't really disagree with you that 2030 is a distinct possibility. But imagine being back in June of 2014, watching Larkin get drafted, and being told A) this kid is going to turn out exceptionally well, play first line center, and wear the "C", but also B) the Wings will not be ready to truly compete again until he's 34 years old. I probably would have been like, "cool story bro."

 

[heyfolks]

The amount of terrible contracts produced by this system would be astounding. Yakupov would still be making like 8 mill

Seriously.

It stands to reason that the less successful teams have the least amount of talent and, if managed well, the lowest spend. a big IF, maybe. Yet this system honors a true free market system (one where an 18 year-old kid isn't saddled to a single employer) , while maintaining spending parity.

In countering your argument, whether a draft exists or not, a team pays for a paid contract, unless they can dump it.

 

[RabidBadger]

Stafford is another one that was a #1 draft pick clear back to high school in terms of knowledge.

This exists in all of the major sports really. I think baseball is probably your best argument but it happens there too in terms of certain guys over the years being the known draft pick for years.

Does Lebron and Kobe ring a bell for anyone? I remember seeing Lebron's high school jersey for sale at a mall in Asheville, NC....while he was still in high school.

It's safe to say more people are sporting amateur jerseys of football or basketball players than hockey players...in the U.S. at least.

 

[ZDH]

Who cares about 4-5, we're gonna win the lottery in 2025. Misa gonna be a Red Wing.

That also means I anticipate the team sucking for couple more years, lol. Unfortunately, I think that's what it's gonna take for the Wings to become a contender. As much as I want Auston Pornstache, he's not gonna leave Toronto.

Auston Playing Like It's A Pickup Game at a Dead-end Street in Inner Cleveland Zero Heart Even Though its A GD Elimination Game You're Such a Worthless Turd Matthews?

Yea I want him too.

 

[Gniwder]

Auston Playing Like It's A Pickup Game at a Dead-end Street in Inner Cleveland Zero Heart Even Though its A GD Elimination Game You're Such a Worthless Turd Matthews?

Yea I want him too.

I didn't watch the game, but look at the upcoming UFA centers and it's slim pickings.

Without Auston, the Wings will probably get a shot at Misa. I don't think Kasper will be good enough his first 2 seasons to carry the second line and get the team to the playoffs.

 

[Oddbob]

Dump the draft. Have the UFA and former draft begin on the same day. The only restriction is you can't exceed your cap.

Chicago dumps players to get cap room and sign Bedard for 12x8. This then limits their ability to be major players for the top talent in the next draft, as their eat up their cap space.

You can also stagger the entry UFA period with the League UFA period for more off season fan engagement.

You can't get rid of the draft. That is how all the top end players end up in only the top 5-10 markets. If they can just pick willy nilly, the bottom 10-15 or so teams, would never get anyone but castoffs that didn't work out elsewhere.

In the poll I started about a month ago, I selected 2027/28-2029/30 as Detroit's most likely prime 3-year window. So yeah, I don't really disagree with you that 2030 is a distinct possibility. But imagine being back in June of 2014, watching Larkin get drafted, and being told A) this kid is going to turn out exceptionally well, play first line center, and wear the "C", but also B) the Wings will not be ready to truly compete again until he's 34 years old. I probably would have been like, "cool story bro."

I will say this, if it is indeed going to take that much longer, than we should trade Larkin right now!

 

[Retire91]

Seriously.

It stands to reason that the less successful teams have the least amount of talent and, if managed well, the lowest spend. a big IF, maybe. Yet this system honors a true free market system (one where an 18 year-old kid isn't saddled to a single employer) , while maintaining spending parity.

In countering your argument, whether a draft exists or not, a team pays for a paid contract, unless they can dump it.

If we are going total free market though we also need at will employment. Would be interesting to see teams be able to drop underperformers even mid season so we don't get stuck with the Abby's, and Neilsons.

I am not totally against the idea of no draft, would be nice to see the youngsters be able to cash in, they are only 1 injury away from having realized only like 2% of their lifetime earning potential in the current system. Like Jiri Fischer