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Blue Jays Discussion: The "Let's blow up the team" edition

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phillipmike

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Signing in June would be a horrible strategy for Jose. No one is gonna give hi, two years and he doesn't want two years unless that second year is 20M which isn't happening because he wants to reestablish his value to hit the market again.

The last two guys to sign in season to avoid or tried to avoid the draft pick hang over their head had awful seasons were Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales. They came in during the season without ST and missing almost 2 months when guys are already in mid season form. Its a bad decision.

Drew had an OPS+ of 111 with Boston in 2013... signed in season back with Boston for 11M got traded to the Yankees and finished the year with an OPS+ of 50. He made 5M the year after and 3M this past year finally rebuilding his value as a utility player with the Nats in 70 games but still sits on the market.

Morales came off an OPS+ of 123 with Seattle in 2013. Signed after the draft for a prorated 10M with Minnesota was terrible and was dealt back to Seattle where he regained some value to finish the season with an OPS+ of 83 and got a 2 year deal worth 7.5M per from KC.

Both players got less than the QO they rejected, both players signed in season and had bad seasons and both players got even less the year after. Jose would be dumb to wait it out until June.
 
Kurtz

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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phillipmike said:
Signing in June would be a horrible strategy for Jose. No one is gonna give hi, two years and he doesn't want two years unless that second year is 20M which isn't happening because he wants to reestablish his value to hit the market again.

The last two guys to sign in season to avoid or tried to avoid the draft pick hang over their head had awful seasons were Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales. They came in during the season without ST and missing almost 2 months when guys are already in mid season form. Its a bad decision.

Drew had an OPS+ of 111 with Boston in 2013... signed in season back with Boston for 11M got traded to the Yankees and finished the year with an OPS+ of 50. He made 5M the year after and 3M this past year finally rebuilding his value as a utility player with the Nats in 70 games but still sits on the market.

Morales came off an OPS+ of 123 with Seattle in 2013. Signed after the draft for a prorated 10M with Minnesota was terrible and was dealt back to Seattle where he regained some value to finish the season with an OPS+ of 83 and got a 2 year deal worth 7.5M per from KC.

Both players got less than the QO they rejected, both players signed in season and had bad seasons and both players got even less the year after. Jose would be dumb to wait it out until June.
Click to expand...

While an interesting read, 2 examples don't really constitute a compelling sample size.
 

Discoverer

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The only situation in which it actually makes sense for Bautista to wait until after the draft is if someone is willing to give him a multi-year deal. And even then, he's better off taking a contract that guarantees more money over a full 2017 season and betting on himself.

That is to say... it makes no sense for Bautista, not to mention the Jays would likely sign him before it comes to that since the value of the draft pick no longer applies if it's clear he's going to wait.

So yeah... it makes no sense and it won't happen.
 
Leaftors

Leaftors

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Did something happen between stroman and sanchez? Am i super late on it if it did? Stroman unfollowed sanchez on twitter and went on a twitter rant for those who don't know
 
phillipmike

phillipmike

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Kurtz said:
While an interesting read, 2 examples don't really constitute a compelling sample size.
Click to expand...

Sure but its a less than ideal scenario. If he is holding out for more money then it would be dumb because he would be missing 2.5 months of pay from 6 months. No one is gonna ear mark 14-15M mid season for Bautista because a lot can happen in 2 months. The teams that had that kind of money dont have the money or roster spot or else they would have signed him now.

He is better off lowering his demands now than waiting 2.5 months to get comparable money.

17.2M is worth 10.2M prorated from mid June onwards. He is better off taking 10-12M now than 10M or less in June and missing time. i doubt many teams have 10M to spend in June. He has more suitors now too than he would in June.

Dont need to do a study to tell you that missing almot 2.5 months isnt a good idea as 36 year old when teams already question your durability. You arent gonna be the same player or better after sitting for 2.5 months - can only get worse or stay the same best case... if Bautista does wait then he is another Jay FA taking more bad advice from his agent.
 
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Kurtz

Kurtz

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phillipmike said:
Sure but its a less than ideal scenario. If he is holding out for more money then it would be dumb because he would be missing 2.5 months of pay from 6 months. No one is gonna ear mark 14-15M mid season for Bautista because a lot can happen in 2 months. The teams that had that kind of money dont have the money or roster spot or else they would have signed him now.

He is better off lowering his demands now than waiting 2.5 months to get comparable money.

17.2M is worth 10.2M prorated from mid June onwards. He is better off taking 10-12M now than 10M or less in June and missing time. i doubt many teams have 10M to spend in June. He has more suitors now too than he would in June.

Dont need to do a study to tell you that missing almot 2.5 months isnt a good idea as 36 year old when teams already question your durability. You arent gonna be the same player or better after sitting for 2.5 months - can only get worse or stay the same best case... if Bautista does wait then he is another Jay FA taking more bad advice from his agent.
Click to expand...

These are fair points, and I think it's why Bautista will sign soon rather than wait for June.

But to play devil's advocate: If I'm Washington or LA or Boston, I know I'll most likely make the playoffs, so if Bats misses the first third of the season and then takes a month to get going...it's not a huge deal as long as he's healthy and there for the second half run.

So if I'm them, and the choice is to give Bats $15 mil today + give up a first, which is valued at ~$10 mil...or wait for 2 months, give him a prorated salary for that amount and keep the pick...I probably chose the latter.

Granted, Bautista is assuming risk in this scenario, but perhaps he can make a verbal agreement with one of the aformentioned suitors to sign on June 14th for that predetermined amount. (assuming that's legal).


And while the two examples you've shown didn't work out for those players, it clearly shows precedent for MLB players sitting out until the pick compensation goes away, so it's not an outlandishly new notion.
 
Eyedea

Eyedea

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Jan 29, 2012
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That solves one OF slot, and realistically you could have Pompey/Upton in left with Carrera being waiver/trade bait and have (bad nickname alert) HarRambae and Ceciliani as the AAA options (with Alford being right behind them).
 
phillipmike

phillipmike

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Really hoping its under 15M. Less the better. Could really get some bargains with more money available.
 
TF97

TF97

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Jul 4, 2010
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I'm very happy to hear that Jose will likely be returning. His "struggles" last season were overstated, despite the injuries, he still produced at a good level. Not only is Jose my all-time favourite Blue Jay, he is arguably the greatest Blue Jay of all-time. It's also great to keep him at the top of the lineup. Now, I'm interested to see what the terms will be.
 
Canada4Gold

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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Kinda wanted the pick tbh, as bad as that sounds for a team who's supposed to be contending.

If it's 1 year at less than the QO or 2 years at a reasonable price(2/30?) I'll be happy, but I don't find either of those things likely.

I still think it's quite possible that he has a better year than Edwin, he appeared to be the more likely of the 2 to remain productive into their older years up until this past year. If he can stay healthy and his defense doesn't be in the completely unplayable range he'll be a really useful piece for sure which we could certainly use. His eye is still good, and he can still mash.
 
jetsforever

jetsforever

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Dec 14, 2013
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Getting Bautista back would be great, hopefully on a favourable deal. Losing one franchise hitter is enough this year.
 
Edo

Edo

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Bautista had a miserable season last year. I feel like this is management giving into the pressure. His at bats last year and his approach was hard to watch at times. And his defense :laugh:.
 
Mitchy

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Bats definitely didn't have a great season, but even with all of his struggles, he still managed a 122 wRC+. notbad.jpg
 
hoglund

hoglund

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Leaftors said:
Did something happen between stroman and sanchez? Am i super late on it if it did? Stroman unfollowed sanchez on twitter and went on a twitter rant for those who don't know
Click to expand...

Why do you bother with Twitter? It's so negative and many times incorrect, please stop.
 
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