The Legend
GW
- Feb 24, 2004
- 5,490
- 611
As many in this fan base have rightfully noted, the Leafs (as presently constructed) appear to be on the right path. For the first time in almost a decade, there are actual long term assets in this organization, which (to me at least) is extremely refreshing. The one asset that goes overlooked a bit though, is the sheer amount of committed cap dollars that the Leafs have moving forward.
2016/2017 season: 41.5M
2017/2018 season: 23.2M
2018/2019 season: 5.25M (!!)
Usually, the schedule of cap space is usually tied to lists of unrestricted free agents (there are multiple threads on UFA’s on our board even right now). Even yours truly is guilty of that - I've had "Stamkos in 2016" as my header since 2014. But as the growth of the cap begins to stagnate, I think we will see teams start turning to offer sheets on restricted free agents more frequently. If you aren't familiar with the rules of restricted free agency or offer sheets, they can be found within the NHL's CBA.
Historically, offer sheets have been few and far between.That's because teams would usually match, and all that would be accomplished is creating an enemy out of an opposing GM (and likely others around the league as well). The NBA has a similar mechanism (that gets used more frequently), but rarely do superstars make it that far.
But with the cap stagnating, I think the odds of a successful offer sheet increase. And - with lots of cap space - the Leafs are well positioned to take advantage of restricted free agents as a result. Typically teams will try and sign short-term contracts to bridge their RFA's to free agency, but if the leafs are willing to offer long-term, high AAV contracts, they may be able to entice.
So what are the downsides?
Well, for starters, the Leafs also have their own RFAs to worry about, starting with Morgan Rielly this year and continuing through whenever Nylander and Marner's entry level contracts expire. Signing an RFA to an offer sheet - no matter if successful or not - puts a pretty large target on the Leafs backs moving forward. As we all saw when the Oilers decided to go after Penner, GMs in this league – specifically the old guard – takes these things pretty personally. It’s not hard to imagine a situation where multiple GMs get upset with a team that submits an offer sheet, even if it doesn’t directly impact.
Then there's also the hard costs. Successfully signing an RFA to an offer sheet costs draft picks - lots of them, determined on a sliding scale based on the AAV of the offer sheet.
That all said, the fact that salary cap growth is softening leads me to believe that the chances of a team being unable to match an offer sheet are increasing. At the very least, the threat of an offer sheet makes the possibility of a trade more likely. And as the Leafs continue to stockpile picks, losing some through an offer sheet isn’t actually the worst possibility in the world, because – for the first time – they have a surplus.
TL;DR: Offer sheets are taboo, but could be an effective weapon for a team with a lot of cap space and extra draft picks, like the Leafs (especially after 2018). There are repercussions, but they might be tolerable if the player is worth it. What do all of you think?
2016/2017 season: 41.5M
2017/2018 season: 23.2M
2018/2019 season: 5.25M (!!)
Usually, the schedule of cap space is usually tied to lists of unrestricted free agents (there are multiple threads on UFA’s on our board even right now). Even yours truly is guilty of that - I've had "Stamkos in 2016" as my header since 2014. But as the growth of the cap begins to stagnate, I think we will see teams start turning to offer sheets on restricted free agents more frequently. If you aren't familiar with the rules of restricted free agency or offer sheets, they can be found within the NHL's CBA.
Historically, offer sheets have been few and far between.That's because teams would usually match, and all that would be accomplished is creating an enemy out of an opposing GM (and likely others around the league as well). The NBA has a similar mechanism (that gets used more frequently), but rarely do superstars make it that far.
But with the cap stagnating, I think the odds of a successful offer sheet increase. And - with lots of cap space - the Leafs are well positioned to take advantage of restricted free agents as a result. Typically teams will try and sign short-term contracts to bridge their RFA's to free agency, but if the leafs are willing to offer long-term, high AAV contracts, they may be able to entice.
So what are the downsides?
Well, for starters, the Leafs also have their own RFAs to worry about, starting with Morgan Rielly this year and continuing through whenever Nylander and Marner's entry level contracts expire. Signing an RFA to an offer sheet - no matter if successful or not - puts a pretty large target on the Leafs backs moving forward. As we all saw when the Oilers decided to go after Penner, GMs in this league – specifically the old guard – takes these things pretty personally. It’s not hard to imagine a situation where multiple GMs get upset with a team that submits an offer sheet, even if it doesn’t directly impact.
Then there's also the hard costs. Successfully signing an RFA to an offer sheet costs draft picks - lots of them, determined on a sliding scale based on the AAV of the offer sheet.
That all said, the fact that salary cap growth is softening leads me to believe that the chances of a team being unable to match an offer sheet are increasing. At the very least, the threat of an offer sheet makes the possibility of a trade more likely. And as the Leafs continue to stockpile picks, losing some through an offer sheet isn’t actually the worst possibility in the world, because – for the first time – they have a surplus.
TL;DR: Offer sheets are taboo, but could be an effective weapon for a team with a lot of cap space and extra draft picks, like the Leafs (especially after 2018). There are repercussions, but they might be tolerable if the player is worth it. What do all of you think?