The Leafs are positioned to submit offer sheets on RFAs; is it worth the risk?

[The Legend]

As many in this fan base have rightfully noted, the Leafs (as presently constructed) appear to be on the right path. For the first time in almost a decade, there are actual long term assets in this organization, which (to me at least) is extremely refreshing. The one asset that goes overlooked a bit though, is the sheer amount of committed cap dollars that the Leafs have moving forward.

2016/2017 season: 41.5M
2017/2018 season: 23.2M
2018/2019 season: 5.25M (!!)

Usually, the schedule of cap space is usually tied to lists of unrestricted free agents (there are multiple threads on UFA’s on our board even right now). Even yours truly is guilty of that - I've had "Stamkos in 2016" as my header since 2014. But as the growth of the cap begins to stagnate, I think we will see teams start turning to offer sheets on restricted free agents more frequently. If you aren't familiar with the rules of restricted free agency or offer sheets, they can be found within the NHL's CBA.

Historically, offer sheets have been few and far between.That's because teams would usually match, and all that would be accomplished is creating an enemy out of an opposing GM (and likely others around the league as well). The NBA has a similar mechanism (that gets used more frequently), but rarely do superstars make it that far.

But with the cap stagnating, I think the odds of a successful offer sheet increase. And - with lots of cap space - the Leafs are well positioned to take advantage of restricted free agents as a result. Typically teams will try and sign short-term contracts to bridge their RFA's to free agency, but if the leafs are willing to offer long-term, high AAV contracts, they may be able to entice.

So what are the downsides?

Well, for starters, the Leafs also have their own RFAs to worry about, starting with Morgan Rielly this year and continuing through whenever Nylander and Marner's entry level contracts expire. Signing an RFA to an offer sheet - no matter if successful or not - puts a pretty large target on the Leafs backs moving forward. As we all saw when the Oilers decided to go after Penner, GMs in this league – specifically the old guard – takes these things pretty personally. It’s not hard to imagine a situation where multiple GMs get upset with a team that submits an offer sheet, even if it doesn’t directly impact.

Then there's also the hard costs. Successfully signing an RFA to an offer sheet costs draft picks - lots of them, determined on a sliding scale based on the AAV of the offer sheet.

That all said, the fact that salary cap growth is softening leads me to believe that the chances of a team being unable to match an offer sheet are increasing. At the very least, the threat of an offer sheet makes the possibility of a trade more likely. And as the Leafs continue to stockpile picks, losing some through an offer sheet isn’t actually the worst possibility in the world, because – for the first time – they have a surplus.

TL;DR: Offer sheets are taboo, but could be an effective weapon for a team with a lot of cap space and extra draft picks, like the Leafs (especially after 2018). There are repercussions, but they might be tolerable if the player is worth it. What do all of you think?

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[KGL]

If you're going to offer-sheet a player, it had better be a game changing player, a top 4/top 6 player. Those don't come cheap. The offer sheet would get us into the territory where we'd be giving up a first round pick in all likelihood which the Leafs are in no position to be potentially losing a first round pick. For that reason, I wouldn't be happy with offer sheeting a player (assuming a first round pick would be given up to get them).

 

[Mad Brills*]

Someone wants to give up 2 1sts for rielly go nuts, he's good but overrated on here.

 

[HEAVY DUTY]

if we draft mathews and sign stamkos and have another high draft pick in 2017, i would love for us to offer sheet mcdavid in 2018. max salary for 4 years. mcdavid will probably be a god by then, so giving up 4 1sts for him will be worth it. also, if edmonton matches/re-signs him, then we speed up his UFA process and get a shot at McDavid at UFA once the 4 year deal is up.

 

[Stephen]

Offer sheets don't make sense unless you reasonably believe they will make you so good that the picks won't be lottery picks, or you still feel like however many lottery picks are worth trading for that player.

Right now, I think that's basically only McDavid.

You might make a case for Ekblad as well, but it's less obvious. Eichel could potentially be that target but so far he just looks like a normal star rookie, and you might put him in a Kessel type position if you move out too many picks and can't support him.

 

[MJ65]

This subject is discussed on these boards on various occasions and I am not going in to any details and my answer is NO

 

[Faltorvo]

As many in this fan base have rightfully noted, the Leafs (as presently constructed) appear to be on the right path. For the first time in almost a decade, there are actual long term assets in this organization, which (to me at least) is extremely refreshing. The one asset that goes overlooked a bit though, is the sheer amount of committed cap dollars that the Leafs have moving forward.

2016/2017 season: 41.5M
2017/2018 season: 23.2M
2018/2019 season: 5.25M (!!)

Usually, the schedule of cap space is usually tied to lists of unrestricted free agents (there are multiple threads on UFA’s on our board even right now). Even yours truly is guilty of that - I've had "Stamkos in 2016" as my header since 2014. But as the growth of the cap begins to stagnate, I think we will see teams start turning to offer sheets on restricted free agents more frequently. If you aren't familiar with the rules of restricted free agency or offer sheets, they can be found within the NHL's CBA.

Historically, offer sheets have been few and far between.That's because teams would usually match, and all that would be accomplished is creating an enemy out of an opposing GM (and likely others around the league as well). The NBA has a similar mechanism (that gets used more frequently), but rarely do superstars make it that far.

But with the cap stagnating, I think the odds of a successful offer sheet increase. And - with lots of cap space - the Leafs are well positioned to take advantage of restricted free agents as a result. Typically teams will try and sign short-term contracts to bridge their RFA's to free agency, but if the leafs are willing to offer long-term, high AAV contracts, they may be able to entice.

So what are the downsides?

Well, for starters, the Leafs also have their own RFAs to worry about, starting with Morgan Rielly this year and continuing through whenever Nylander and Marner's entry level contracts expire. Signing an RFA to an offer sheet - no matter if successful or not - puts a pretty large target on the Leafs backs moving forward. As we all saw when the Oilers decided to go after Penner, GMs in this league – specifically the old guard – takes these things pretty personally. It’s not hard to imagine a situation where multiple GMs get upset with a team that submits an offer sheet, even if it doesn’t directly impact.

Then there's also the hard costs. Successfully signing an RFA to an offer sheet costs draft picks - lots of them, determined on a sliding scale based on the AAV of the offer sheet.

That all said, the fact that salary cap growth is softening leads me to believe that the chances of a team being unable to match an offer sheet are increasing. At the very least, the threat of an offer sheet makes the possibility of a trade more likely. And as the Leafs continue to stockpile picks, losing some through an offer sheet isn’t actually the worst possibility in the world, because – for the first time – they have a surplus.

TL;DR: Offer sheets are taboo, but could be an effective weapon for a team with a lot of cap space and extra draft picks, like the Leafs (especially after 2018). There are repercussions, but they might be tolerable if the player is worth it. What do all of you think?

The kessel trade for now has caused a little road block

Our 2017 2nd cannot be moved or offered to anyone.

It's currently tied up in the "what if" stipulations of the deal.

 

[Todd Skill]

Tendering offer sheets seems like a much better idea for teams that draft lower in the rounds. They're already decent as a team and would be going after a proven talent. Teams with high draft picks (like the Leafs) that have a lot of work to do, are generally better just drafting and building slowly without the salary commitment and loss of picks that comes with offer sheeting.

 

[Faltorvo]

As many in this fan base have rightfully noted, the Leafs (as presently constructed) appear to be on the right path. For the first time in almost a decade, there are actual long term assets in this organization, which (to me at least) is extremely refreshing. The one asset that goes overlooked a bit though, is the sheer amount of committed cap dollars that the Leafs have moving forward.

2016/2017 season: 41.5M
2017/2018 season: 23.2M
2018/2019 season: 5.25M (!!)

Usually, the schedule of cap space is usually tied to lists of unrestricted free agents (there are multiple threads on UFA’s on our board even right now). Even yours truly is guilty of that - I've had "Stamkos in 2016" as my header since 2014. But as the growth of the cap begins to stagnate, I think we will see teams start turning to offer sheets on restricted free agents more frequently. If you aren't familiar with the rules of restricted free agency or offer sheets, they can be found within the NHL's CBA.

Historically, offer sheets have been few and far between.That's because teams would usually match, and all that would be accomplished is creating an enemy out of an opposing GM (and likely others around the league as well). The NBA has a similar mechanism (that gets used more frequently), but rarely do superstars make it that far.

But with the cap stagnating, I think the odds of a successful offer sheet increase. And - with lots of cap space - the Leafs are well positioned to take advantage of restricted free agents as a result. Typically teams will try and sign short-term contracts to bridge their RFA's to free agency, but if the leafs are willing to offer long-term, high AAV contracts, they may be able to entice.

So what are the downsides?

Well, for starters, the Leafs also have their own RFAs to worry about, starting with Morgan Rielly this year and continuing through whenever Nylander and Marner's entry level contracts expire. Signing an RFA to an offer sheet - no matter if successful or not - puts a pretty large target on the Leafs backs moving forward. As we all saw when the Oilers decided to go after Penner, GMs in this league – specifically the old guard – takes these things pretty personally. It’s not hard to imagine a situation where multiple GMs get upset with a team that submits an offer sheet, even if it doesn’t directly impact.

Then there's also the hard costs. Successfully signing an RFA to an offer sheet costs draft picks - lots of them, determined on a sliding scale based on the AAV of the offer sheet.

That all said, the fact that salary cap growth is softening leads me to believe that the chances of a team being unable to match an offer sheet are increasing. At the very least, the threat of an offer sheet makes the possibility of a trade more likely. And as the Leafs continue to stockpile picks, losing some through an offer sheet isn’t actually the worst possibility in the world, because – for the first time – they have a surplus.

TL;DR: Offer sheets are taboo, but could be an effective weapon for a team with a lot of cap space and extra draft picks, like the Leafs (especially after 2018). There are repercussions, but they might be tolerable if the player is worth it. What do all of you think?

truth be told legend, we are exactly the kind of team that in no way shape or form should even consider offer sheets.

franchises that are in a stronger position , not to risk moving a high draft slot are best suited

it is the unspoken inequality in the RFA system

right now who has spent more to land that RFA if the price is 2 1rsts?

Us or Chicago?

 

[Swervin81]

No. At least not right now.

Hell, offer sheets in general aren't worth it. The only team to ever go crazy with them IIRC is the Blues and they basically killed any chance they had of having a future when they offer sheeted Stevens and Shanahan.

 

[Porn*]

as much as i'd love a mackinnon type, we can't afford to be losing top end picks for years in a row.

 

[The Legend]

Offer sheets don't make sense unless you reasonably believe they will make you so good that the picks won't be lottery picks, or you still feel like however many lottery picks are worth trading for that player.

Right now, I think that's basically only McDavid.

You might make a case for Ekblad as well, but it's less obvious. Eichel could potentially be that target but so far he just looks like a normal star rookie, and you might put him in a Kessel type position if you move out too many picks and can't support him.

I agree McDavid (and maybe Ekblad) are the targets if we are going towards the higher end. But on the lower end of the scale, offer sheets up to 3.4M AAV (for instance) don't even require a first round pick. Surely there are cap-conscious teams who would balk at those types of prices for good, young depth players with upside.

Someone wants to give up 2 1sts for rielly go nuts, he's good but overrated on here.

Would likely fetch more than that on an offer sheet. For me, it depends how bad the team is that is offer sheeting him, and - accordingly - how good the picks are.

Tendering offer sheets seems like a much better idea for teams that draft lower in the rounds. They're already decent as a team and would be going after a proven talent. Teams with high draft picks (like the Leafs) that have a lot of work to do, are generally better just drafting and building slowly without the salary commitment and loss of picks that comes with offer sheeting.

I agree with this, and I personally would wait until we are higher on the success curve - perhaps after the 2017 season - before tendering an offer sheet.

 

[The Legend]

truth be told legend, we are exactly the kind of team that in no way shape or form should even consider offer sheets.

franchises that are in a stronger position , not to risk moving a high draft slot are best suited

it is the unspoken inequality in the RFA system

right now who has spent more to land that RFA if the price is 2 1rsts?

Us or Chicago?

It's a fair point Faltorvo - I'm staring more at the 2017 or 2018 offseasons, when we (hopefully) are in a better position to sacrifice draft picks.

 

[LeafsFIO*]

If the Leafs get a top three pick and Stamkos this year and are essentially ensure they won't be a basement dweller, I would 100% offer sheet Ekblad. But there's a lot of ifs there

 

[Woll Smoth]

The kessel trade for now has caused a little road block

Our 2017 2nd cannot be moved or offered to anyone.

It's currently tied up in the "what if" stipulations of the deal.

Is it actually "our 2017 2nd" or "a 2017 2nd"?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Is it actually "our 2017 2nd" or "a 2017 2nd"?

Offer sheets must be made with your own picks. Coach compensation can be anything. That's why we are likely going to acquire a couple of playoff 3rd's from our rentals and pay off our debt for Babcock and Lou.

 

[613Leafer]

ONE player has been acquired via offersheet in the past 15 years. One. And it was a bad move where the picks given up and cap space used were worth more than the player.

It's simply not a realistic way of adding talent, if it were, it would happen more frequently. By definition, you have to overpay the player to get the other team to decline, then you have to give up more valuable picks the more you overpay, so you get hurt double.

 

[Woll Smoth]

Offer sheets must be made with your own picks. Coach compensation can be anything. That's why we are likely going to acquire a couple of playoff 3rd's from our rentals and pay off our debt for Babcock and Lou.

I meant in the deal going to Pitts under the condition that we have to give them a pick in 2017

 

[Woodman19]

How about we use our top picks for a change to draft and develop our own young stars?

 

[TmlHockeyFan]

I'd only offer sheet McDavid (Edmonton would match it though).

 

[Kamiccolo]

If we get Matthews this year, I'd offer sheet Ekblad, even if it meant losing up to 4 firsts.

xxx-Matthews - Marner
JVR - Nylander - XXX
Leipsic - Kadri - Komarov

Is an outstanding top 9 for the next few seasons, and the XXX can be either FA's or our prospects coming up. Our only hole will be on D, and Ekblad is a #1 D, he changes everything for us. On defense we get:

XXX - Ekblad

Rielly - XXX

This gives us two top pairing D, and we have tons of picks coming up to fill this up.

IF Reimer resigns and gives us even average goaltending, we're a playoff bubble team next year with this line up, and a sure playoff team the years after.

 

[Snow Dog]

I'd only offer sheet McDavid (Edmonton would match it though).

If the Oilers didn't have the cap space at the time would they be given time to make some available?

 

[Menzinger]

No.

The a leafs will likely have a high first next year - it is an absolute that they keep it.

Also to successfully get an offer sheet to work - you need to massively overpay a young player. This hurting your teams cap space.

I'd rather have the cost controlled assets in draft picks.

 

[The Legend]

ONE player has been acquired via offersheet in the past 15 years. One. And it was a bad move where the picks given up and cap space used were worth more than the player.

It's simply not a realistic way of adding talent, if it were, it would happen more frequently. By definition, you have to overpay the player to get the other team to decline, then you have to give up more valuable picks the more you overpay, so you get hurt double.

I think that's a bit disingenuous. Some teams/GMs (we had one for a while) abhor the concept and have an informal policy against a perfectly legitimate tool in the CBA.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I agree McDavid (and maybe Ekblad) are the targets if we are going towards the higher end. But on the lower end of the scale, offer sheets up to 3.4M AAV (for instance) don't even require a first round pick. Surely there are cap-conscious teams who would balk at those types of prices for good, young depth players with upside.

Who are we going to offer sheet for less than 3.4 million and give up a 2nd to do it that's going to result in the team not matching?

It won't be anyone any good, put it that way.