The Leafs are positioned to submit offer sheets on RFAs; is it worth the risk?

[LeafsNation75]

I would not risk the Leafs draft picks for offer sheets and chances are it will get matched, so they would not end up getting the player.

 

[tmlms13]

Offer sheet McDavid after the 17-18 season to a max deal, 4 1sts. If he gets 100 points in each of those 4 season and the Leafs are a top 5 team in the NHL it's worth it imo. With the current plan Leafs are going to be a contender at that time without him. If they can maneuver the cap do it.

 

[Faltorvo]

Is it actually "our 2017 2nd" or "a 2017 2nd"?

if pit makes it this year , we give them their 2016 2ND BACK

if we get their 2017 1rst then they get OUR 2017 2nd

 

[Pi]

I'd only offer sheet McDavid (Edmonton would match it though).

So? **** them over if they match it.

They offered Vanek an offer sheet...they know it's strictly business.

 

[The Legend]

No.

The a leafs will likely have a high first next year - it is an absolute that they keep it.

Also to successfully get an offer sheet to work - you need to massively overpay a young player. This hurting your teams cap space.

I'd rather have the cost controlled assets in draft picks.

Sure - but that's just this year. The Leafs have massive amounts of cap space in the next few years, so even if they have to overpay, it shouldn't hamstring them too much (assuming that the player being acquired is actually good).

Most importantly, I'd rather break the bank on a young player than the typical veteran we tend to see on the UFA market. The majority of NHL players are most effective in their 20's - how many are getting to free agency before 30 these days?

And sure, cost controlled draft picks are helpful, especially in a cap system. But they are also a bit of a crapshoot, and - to be honest - might have more value in a trade (or RFA signing) if the Leafs have a surplus (which they do), because of the strain that comes from having too many players of the same age in the system.

 

[The Legend]

I'd only offer sheet McDavid (Edmonton would match it though).

Agreed. But they are also a point in case of what happens when your core all comes of age at relatively the same time - they are already have 33M in cap space committed for that year. We have 5M. At the very least, you likely force them into a corresponding move.

The NHL is a zero sum game - hurt your opponent, you help yourself. Lots of GMs avoid this reality.

 

[Pi]

Agreed. But they are also a point in case of what happens when your core all comes of age at relatively the same time - they are already have 33M in cap space committed for that year. We have 5M. At the very least, you likely force them into a corresponding move.

The NHL is a zero sum game - hurt your opponent, you help yourself. Lots of GMs avoid this reality.

Pretty much. We can afford McDavid at even 12-13M, Edmonton can match but that doesn't mean they can afford him at that price and manage to do anything with their roster.

 

[Leafsbeast*]

Offer sheets are not worth the risk. Then you p1ss off another GM and he won't deal with you.

Then there is payback.

Payback is a beyatch.

 

[613Leafer]

I think that's a bit disingenuous. Some teams/GMs (we had one for a while) abhor the concept and have an informal policy against a perfectly legitimate tool in the CBA.

You're grasping at straws here. Aside from Burke, I dont think the majority of GMs out there are against the concept. GMs HAVE tried. ROR, Weber, Kesler, Vanek, etc. These guys were all signed to offersheets as well, the point is that teams MATCH.

The other team will match unless you drastically overpay. You HAVE to overpay in terms of caphit to get a player via offersheet, and then you're giving up multiple high picks. Plus you have to convince the player to sign an offersheet, and my guess is that unless players are in a bad situation, they see offersheets as more of a last resort type of thing.

If they were realistic, they'd be done more. Its the same thing evry single offseason, talk about offersheets to the top RFAs out there. And then it virtually never happens, and when it does the team just matches anyways.

 

[leafsfuture]

Offer sheets are not worth the risk. Then you p1ss off another GM and he won't deal with you.

Then there is payback.

Payback is a beyatch.

I dont think the offer-sheet itself is the issue. Its when you sign the guy to the offer sheet and the team with rights doesnt know.

So if some team comes to Toronto and says: "We have been in talks with Nazem Kadri, and we want to sign him to an offer sheet at 4 years for $5 million a year. What are your thoughts on that?" -- Lou couldnt possibly be upset

Lou can then potentially negotiate a trade (like Burke did with Kessel), give a blessing, or say they dont like the offer

 

[Confucius]

Someone wants to give up 2 1sts for rielly go nuts, he's good but overrated on here.

2 1sts from a playoff team could be utter crap where neither pick even makes it to the NHL. Could be something like 25th and 27th overall.

 

[Fourier]

Pretty much. We can afford McDavid at even 12-13M, Edmonton can match but that doesn't mean they can afford him at that price and manage to do anything with their roster.

I'd put the odds that McDavid is signed for 8 years on July 1, 2017 at 95%. The Oilers ownership will insist on it and he will clearly be the teams #1 priority. That's a full year before he becomes a RFA so It may be wise to look at a different target.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I don't see the Leafs offer sheeting anyone.

But I do see them as extremely well positioned to take on an RFA who a team decides to unload due to a cap crunch like we saw with Brandon Saad, Dougie Hamilton, Rielly Smith last summer.

We've got the cap space and lots of depth in terms of cheap young assets that are very close to NHL ready to pull off a 2 or 3 assets for a better piece.

 

[tmlms13]

If there is so much paranoia about RFA and the supposed unwritten rule among GM then the NHL should just do away with RFAs. Get the Arbitration system that baseball time has.

 

[The Legend]

You're grasping at straws here. Aside from Burke, I dont think the majority of GMs out there are against the concept. GMs HAVE tried. ROR, Weber, Kesler, Vanek, etc. These guys were all signed to offersheets as well, the point is that teams MATCH.

The other team will match unless you drastically overpay. You HAVE to overpay in terms of caphit to get a player via offersheet, and then you're giving up multiple high picks. Plus you have to convince the player to sign an offersheet, and my guess is that unless players are in a bad situation, they see offersheets as more of a last resort type of thing.

If they were realistic, they'd be done more. Its the same thing evry single offseason, talk about offersheets to the top RFAs out there. And then it virtually never happens, and when it does the team just matches anyways.

I think you are saying two different things here. On one hand, you're saying that the new team has to (a) overpay and (b) give up multiple high picks. On the other hand though, you're saying that the old teams are very likely to match. Or put another way, if the picks and overpayment are such a disincentive for the new team, then wouldn't they be the same for the old team, thus encouraging them to walk away?

The reality is, the reason they aren't done is because teams just don't make offers. There have been 8 since the salary cap era. Granted, the draft picks are a deterrence. But that's only an issue if teams don't match - and you seem to be saying that teams always match.

 

[Todd Skill]

If the Leafs get a top three pick and Stamkos this year and are essentially ensure they won't be a basement dweller

Edmonton says hi

 

[The Legend]

One other point worth noting:

The Leafs not only can take advantage of teams up against the cap, but also up against a budget. That is, they can structure the salary payments on any offer sheet to make it very difficult for a cash-conscious team to match.

I'll use McDavid as an example, since plenty of people keep bringing him up.

Let's assume a salary cap for 2018/2019 of 74M (that seems to be the projection for 2016/2017). Under the CBA, the maximum AAV per player is 20%, or $14.8M. With salary variance rules of 35% year to year, the Leafs could conceivably structure an offer sheet like this:

Year 1: 24M
Year 2: 18M
Year 3: 13.5M
Year 4: 12M
Year 5: 12M
Year 6: 12M
Year 7: 12M

AAV: 14.7M

Barring a miss of some information in that monster manuscript also known as the CBA, the upshot is that the Leafs can put the squeeze on the Oilers from a cash flow perspective. The Oilers may be able to afford an AAV of $14.7M on their cap for 7 seasons, but a large salary up front of $24M might be more difficult given their cash budget. And of course the Leafs can easily afford plenty of both real dollars and cap dollars. Just another option, that I'm sure/hopeful the Leafs will consider as well.

 

[indigobuffalo]

0% chance of an offer sheet

 

[BlueBaron]

I'd put the odds that McDavid is signed for 8 years on July 1, 2017 at 95%. The Oilers ownership will insist on it and he will clearly be the teams #1 priority. That's a full year before he becomes a RFA so It may be wise to look at a different target.

They can insist all they like, he can hold out and it would cripple their season. McD if he chooses could be in Stamkos's spot . He may or may not like the Oilers but it is misguided to think a team can force a player into an 8 year contract.

And yeah, I would not offer sheet anyone but him . We just aren't there yet.

 

[613Leafer]

I think you are saying two different things here. On one hand, you're saying that the new team has to (a) overpay and (b) give up multiple high picks. On the other hand though, you're saying that the old teams are very likely to match. Or put another way, if the picks and overpayment are such a disincentive for the new team, then wouldn't they be the same for the old team, thus encouraging them to walk away?

No, im saying to acquire a player via offersheet, aka make it so the other team doesnt match, you need to overpay. If you dont overpay, and simply offersheet a fair contract, the other team will match, and keep the player. And going by history, even if you overpay slightly, the other teams tend to match, so you have to overpay drastically to get the other team to walk away.

You're talking about what it would take to ACQUIRE a player via oversheet, which means that yes, you would have to overpay, and likely overpay big. And thats just the capspace, you're then also giving up picks on top of that.

 

[pooleboy]

No, we aren't in a position to actually trade out picks (see kessel trade). Only player I can see us winning in an offer sheet scenerio is mcdavid and there is 0 chance that edmonton doesn't match even if someone offered him max

 

[Fourier]

They can insist all they like, he can hold out and it would cripple their season. McD if he chooses could be in Stamkos's spot . He may or may not like the Oilers but it is misguided to think a team can force a player into an 8 year contract.

And yeah, I would not offer sheet anyone but him . We just aren't there yet.

McDavid is at the worst the third most important player in Oiler franchise history. I'd probably say second but others may argue that Messier was more significant. Ownership will authorize any amount necessary to keep him. And the team will move players to make it possible.

Of course they can't force him to sign a deal which is why I left a 5% option on the table. But there are no examples of star players choosing to bolt after such a short time during the salary cap era. Despite the perception Edmonton has always been a very popular place for young players to play (far less so for older FA's). Hockey is king in the city, relatively speaking even more so than it is in Toronto. These kids are treated like rock stars and are generally given their space. He seems to have settled in very well. He and Hall are quite close now. There is absolutely no indication that he is looking to bolt. In fact it would actually be very much contrary to how he carries himself to expect he would be the one star who would force his way out of a city.

And while you mention Stamkos, it would seem that there were no offer sheets for him. Even now, Yzerman has said the he will not deal the pending UFA and both sides have indicated they still want a deal. It may not happen because Stamkos may not be worth the money to the Bolts. But it is not like he has written off Tampa and in this case he has all the cards in his hands.

 

[ACC1224]

What risk?

Any player that's worth an Offer Sheet will be matched by their Team.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

No way.

The Leafs are better off trading a multitude of prospects + picks for a RFA that is having trouble being resigned by his own team.

Trying to do offer sheets present multiple issues:

1) Getting the player to actually sign: You will likely have to overpay a lot in salary to get the player to actually sign your offer sheet

2) The Leafs are not in a position where there draft picks are going to be 10-30th, most players who become available through offer sheets are not worth multiple top 10 picks

3) Ruining relationships with other teams: Believe it or not, but it is not a positive thing to make an offer sheet on another team's player. You are opening up the risk of having other teams do similar things to you.

4) Most offer sheets are matched anyway.

 

[deletethis]

Every week there seems to be these "ideas" that will do nothing more than derail the methodical rebuild the current management group is undertaking. Sometimes I wonder whether it's actually sincere fan impatience or wishful sabotage from less sincere sources hoping to stir up unrest in our fan base.