The Leafs are positioned to submit offer sheets on RFAs; is it worth the risk?

[The CyNick]

Not even one season into the rebuild and there are more and more threads about shortcuts.

I'm always cautious about prospects, but right now it looks like Hunter had a decent draft in 2015. We will likely have something like 13 picks this draft. If he can replicate 2015 in 2016, our prospect pool will be that much better. Let the group do that for another 2-4 years and see where were at.

I'm not a fan of going back to the years of giving up draft picks. It didn't get us anywhere.

 

[Leafsbeast*]

I dont think the offer-sheet itself is the issue. Its when you sign the guy to the offer sheet and the team with rights doesnt know.

So if some team comes to Toronto and says: "We have been in talks with Nazem Kadri, and we want to sign him to an offer sheet at 4 years for $5 million a year. What are your thoughts on that?" -- Lou couldnt possibly be upset

Lou can then potentially negotiate a trade (like Burke did with Kessel), give a blessing, or say they dont like the offer

That is a "best" case scenario.

The Leafs have a ton of cap and serious flexibility right now.

But you pull the same thing with say.....Hedman, after the Lightning filled Stamkos's wishes.

They are up against the cap. You put them in a nasty situation that the GM won't forget.

Same with teams like Chicago, L.A etc.

When you do it in those cases, you are shooting yourself in the foot because later on down the line, when the Leafs want to sign guys and they are up against it, those teams will be sure to pay you back.

Look at Anaheim and Edmonton. Burke needed to keep Penner but the Ducks didn't have the room to match Edmontons offer. Then, Lowe and Burke grew a hate on for each other. And don't think this doesn't become personal because it does. People are human and hold grudges, just like Burke and Lowe.

They got along before the Penner issue. After that, they hated each other. Then Burke brought that with him to toronto.

We don't want the Leafs to go against potential trading partners.

Offer sheets are a pretty dumb way to do business. I owned a restaurant and another restaurant decided to go after my best bartender.

Thats called poaching. Offer sheets are poaching no matter how you look at it.

 

[The Legend]

What risk?

Any player that's worth an Offer Sheet will be matched by their Team.

That is an oversimplification. Salary and compensatory picks are both variables that might cause a team not to match.

What you've said is the equivalent of saying, "any trade worth doing, won't be done by the other team".

 

[The Legend]

Every week there seems to be these "ideas" that will do nothing more than derail the methodical rebuild the current management group is undertaking. Sometimes I wonder whether it's actually sincere fan impatience or wishful sabotage from less sincere sources hoping to stir up unrest in our fan base.

I must have missed the memo on how a "methodical rebuild" precludes offer sheets on restricted free agents over the next few years. No one said anything about strictly limiting these types of ideas to the immediate future - that was just your misinterpretation, likely (and ironically) out of impatience.

We all agree that the Leafs should be targeting young, controllable and talented players as part of a rebuild. Crazily enough, some of those players are often available as part of restricted free agency! Part of the benefit of hoarding draft picks and cap space is to use them on the right player if/when they become available.

You got me - this is just sabotage. I've just been on these boards for 13 years as a long con to stir up unrest on a random Tuesday in February. Nailed it.

 

[ACC1224]

That is an oversimplification. Salary and compensatory picks are both variables that might cause a team not to match.

What you've said is the equivalent of saying, "any trade worth doing, won't be done by the other team".

Not the equivalent at all.

Any player that is worth going this route on would hold more value than picks.
What's an example(even hypothetical) of a Team not wanting to match?

 

[The Legend]

Not even one season into the rebuild and there are more and more threads about shortcuts.

I'm always cautious about prospects, but right now it looks like Hunter had a decent draft in 2015. We will likely have something like 13 picks this draft. If he can replicate 2015 in 2016, our prospect pool will be that much better. Let the group do that for another 2-4 years and see where were at.

I'm not a fan of going back to the years of giving up draft picks. It didn't get us anywhere.

Those extra draft picks (with more likely to come) make it easier to stomach an offer sheet. We have substantial cap space in the summer of 2017 and (especially) 2018 - I would look there. No one is saying anything about shortcuts.

 

[indigobuffalo]

If the Oilers didn't have the cap space at the time would they be given time to make some available?

Yes they have a day or so to match. Beyond that though, O/Ss are made in the off-season, so there's a 10% cap cushion. For Edmonton to not have Cap space they'd have to be above 90% of the cap max without McDavid's current (ELC) cap hit taken into account.

For that to happen Chiarelli would have to have gone completely off the rails.

 

[indigobuffalo]

That is an oversimplification. Salary and compensatory picks are both variables that might cause a team not to match.

What you've said is the equivalent of saying, "any trade worth doing, won't be done by the other team".

Problem is though, if a team decided not to match, they're in effect saying they feel the compensation is more valuable than the player.

Considering how much we've invested in Hunter and the scouting department, I would think the player would have to be exceptional.

It could only be for a player worth 4x 1st rounders where the player is a generational talent, like McDavid, Ekblad, maybe Tarasenko... There could be one or two others that make the cut... But how do make it work? The Panthers will have cap room, and will make it work budget wise just like Nashville with Weber. St Louis maybe... But they'd still probably match.

And you have to make the offer large enough, which then exposes you to retaliatory offer sheets for your own prospects.

Would you really want to make this trade:

acquire
F Vladimir Tarasenko
2018 STL 1st
2019 STL 1st
2020 STL 1st
2021 STL 1st

acquire
F Mitch Marner
2017 TOR 1st
2018 TOR 1st
2019 TOR 1st
2020 TOR 1st

???

Would that be worth it?

 

[ACC1224]

Yes they have a day or so to match. Beyond that though, O/Ss are made in the off-season, so there's a 10% cap cushion. For Edmonton to not have Cap space they'd have to be above 90% of the cap max without McDavid's current (ELC) cap hit taken into account.

For that to happen Chiarelli would have to have gone completely off the rails.

If he was unsigned his next salary would already be accounted for.

 

[Pucker77]

The only two players worth offersheeting are McDavid and Ekblad. However, Ekblad isnt available for another year and McDavid for another 2. It is very likely that both players will be signed and probably to long term deals well before they hit the RFA market.

However, if they did manage to become available, a team must not only look at the salary to determine what picks are beingcompensated but also look at it as a trade. Say the Leafs sign Ekblad for $7.3 mil while front loading the contract to scare away Florida who may not me able to afford it. The compensation would be a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. In terms of compensation that is a lot to give up but if you look at it as would you trade a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to land Ekblad? It becomes a lot more intriguing.

Depending on the team an offersheet could be used as a way of forcing a team to make a trade that they wouldnt normally do, simply based off of the salary demands.

Im sure people will say "I would rather keep those picks and have 3 chances of drafting our own Ekblad..." which to me is a somewhat dumb philosophy. You would rather gamble 3 times with the hope of getting a #1D rather than simply "trade" for the proven 21-yr old #1D.

Its like that episode of Family Guy. "A boat's a boat, but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat! You know how much we want one of those!"

"A #1D is a #1D, but draft picks could be anything! They could even be a #1D! You know how much we need one of those!"

 

[The Legend]

Considering how much we've invested in Hunter and the scouting department, I would think the player would have to be exceptional.

It could only be for a player worth 4x 1st rounders where the player is a generational talent, like McDavid, Ekblad, maybe Tarasenko... There could be one or two others that make the cut... But how do make it work? The Panthers will have cap room, and will make it work budget wise just like Nashville with Weber. St Louis maybe... But they'd still probably match.

I cherry picked this part, because I agree with what you're saying - the player either has to be generational, or it has to be someone that is underrated enough that you can nab him for a small AAV and sacrifice a 2nd round pick only.

In regards to making an offer that is difficult to match, as I mentioned earlier, if it can't happen from a cap perspective, it can from a cash perspective.

For example: The most Shea Weber will make in a season is $14M. If I was the Leafs and I was offer sheeting McDavid, I would juice the first season - say, $24M in salary. Then subsequent seasons can be decreased to comply with the cap and keep the AAV for the 7 year contract in the 14M range.

Just a thought.

 

[Menzinger]

I cherry picked this part, because I agree with what you're saying - the player either has to be generational, or it has to be someone that is underrated enough that you can nab him for a small AAV and sacrifice a 2nd round pick only.

In regards to making an offer that is difficult to match, as I mentioned earlier, if it can't happen from a cap perspective, it can from a cash perspective.

For example: The most Shea Weber will make in a season is $14M. If I was the Leafs and I was offer sheeting McDavid, I would juice the first season - say, $24M in salary. Then subsequent seasons can be decreased to comply with the cap and keep the AAV for the 7 year contract in the 14M range.

Just a thought.

The problem is - as amazing of a player McDavid is, I don't think I'd want to destroy by paying a player 14 million per.

 

[Apotheosis]

There's only two players in the entire league I would ever consider offer sheeting and handing those picks over for; Ekblad or McDavid.

The way I see it, if at bare minimum we could offer sheet them come the end of NEXT season, that mean we have already drafted a lot in the last two drafts, and multiple core pieces are likely identified. Just to have some fun playing hypotheticals, let's assume this.

Nylander, Marner and Rielly all pan out. They are core pieces. I don't bank on winning the lottery, so let's say we draft 4th at worst.

We get a choice of either Finn, JC, Nylander or Tkachuk. Including the likely amount of later round picks we'll have from moving the rentals and potentially Bozak and the likes, we'll have gotten more bang for our buck in that regard.

Is it worth it? I think so. You add McDavid or Ekblad to the guys who are going to pan out (hopefully Hunter's home runs turn out to be just that) and to the core guys we have identified. It all fits into the idea of the rebuild as well, since they're at the age to comply with our core guys ages.

 

[Apotheosis]

The problem is - as amazing of a player McDavid is, I don't think I'd want to destroy by paying a player 14 million per.

McDavid is the only player in the NHL I would ever consider paying absolute max money for. That's how good he is going to be.

 

[BlueBaron]

McDavid is at the worst the third most important player in Oiler franchise history. I'd probably say second but others may argue that Messier was more significant. Ownership will authorize any amount necessary to keep him. And the team will move players to make it possible.

Of course they can't force him to sign a deal which is why I left a 5% option on the table. But there are no examples of star players choosing to bolt after such a short time during the salary cap era. Despite the perception Edmonton has always been a very popular place for young players to play (far less so for older FA's). Hockey is king in the city, relatively speaking even more so than it is in Toronto. These kids are treated like rock stars and are generally given their space. He seems to have settled in very well. He and Hall are quite close now. There is absolutely no indication that he is looking to bolt. In fact it would actually be very much contrary to how he carries himself to expect he would be the one star who would force his way out of a city.

And while you mention Stamkos, it would seem that there were no offer sheets for him. Even now, Yzerman has said the he will not deal the pending UFA and both sides have indicated they still want a deal. It may not happen because Stamkos may not be worth the money to the Bolts. But it is not like he has written off Tampa and in this case he has all the cards in his hands.

Sure maybe someone will offer sheet him to a 7 year max contract and he will sign and they match but I suspect no one will bother. You are really trying too hard. I didn't say he would not be an Oiler for life or anything along those lines, only that if he wanted to he could be in Stamkos's current situation, this is undeniable. So basically everything you have posted has nothing to do with what I posted. Your 5% number is also pretty funny since we know where you pulled that out of.....it's meaningless.

Tell you what, let's wait and see if Stamkos leaves Tampa and then maybe you will have your example in the modern era. Regardless none of it makes what I said any less true.

 

[Steve]

Realistically, if you are going to put in an offer sheet for someone, you better make sure you are picking late or getting an absolute stud. So I would say no for the Leafs.

That being said, I'd offer McDavid an offer sheet without hesitation.

EDIT - I hope the someone offers him a contract after his entry level, that takes him to his first year of UFA eligibility.

 

[The Legend]

Not the equivalent at all.

Any player that is worth going this route on would hold more value than picks.
What's an example(even hypothetical) of a Team not wanting to match?

Successfully signing a restricted free agent is the equivalent of making a trade. You are exchanging assets with another team, and both teams have to agree.

You do realize that the phrase "any player that is worth going this route on" has different connotations to different teams, right? The Leafs could think that a player is more valuable than the cap space and draft picks, while the other team could think that the cap space and draft picks are more valuable than the player.

It's hard to dream up examples when NHL GMs are incredibly gun shy to even make the offer sheets in the first place. I know you'd probably say that it's because they aren't likely to succeed (to which I say, who cares?), but I would say it's likely because they are de facto colluding with eachother to avoid salary inflation for young players and keep their friends in the league happy.

I mean, honestly, the last time an offer sheet was successful, we almost had two GMs renting out a barn in Lake Placid to throw down.

 

[Fourier]

Sure maybe someone will offer sheet him to a 7 year max contract and he will sign and they match but I suspect no one will bother. You are really trying too hard. I didn't say he would not be an Oiler for life or anything along those lines, only that if he wanted to he could be in Stamkos's current situation, this is undeniable. So basically everything you have posted has nothing to do with what I posted. Your 5% number is also pretty funny since we know where you pulled that out of.....it's meaningless.

Tell you what, let's wait and see if Stamkos leaves Tampa and then maybe you will have your example in the modern era. Regardless none of it makes what I said any less true.

I think you may have misinterpreted what I wrote based on the wording. I am not saying that the Oilers insist that McDavid sign. Of course they can't. What I meant was that the Oilers ownership would insist that management does everything in its power to get him to sign long term as soon as possible. Chia won't have the option to just let him go to RFA status without trying every option to get the deal done. My guess is that they will pretty much meet any demand McDavid makes. And if it ever did get to an offer sheet, which is the part I think would be very unlikely, they will be told to match regardless of the terms. Of course if McDavid came out and demanded a trade that would change things. But it would seem to be 100% out of character for him to do so.

I am an Oiler fan who lives in Waterloo so I have an interest in what happens with the Leafs. I was reading this thread because I actually think that if there is a cap crunch this year we might see a few offer sheets and the Leafs could be in a decent position to target some solid players. Of course it may be too early to do so because of the potential value of your 2017 1st. My comments were not meant as a shot at the leaf fans in here for targeting McDavid. He is absolutely the one guy that I would go all out for with an offer sheet if the opportunity presented itself. My post was more about how McDavid is viewed by the Edmonton Oilers. The memory of the Gretzky sale is very much alive in Edmonton. As an owner who is trying to build a little empire around the new arena, you would have to be an absolute idiot to allow McDavid to leave without doing absolutely everything in your power to prevent it from happening. Of course this is the Oilers we are talking about so perhaps that might not be so hard to imagine.

If you are looking at the Oilers over the next couple of years the more realistic, but still very low probability target, for an offer sheet might be Draisaitl. There is a small chance that if they don't trade Nuge that they try and get him to sign a bridge deal if the cap does not go up much just to keep cap space open for McDavid.

 

[BlueBaron]

Have to agree, they will absolutely do anything to keep him. Who wouldn't ?

 

[JayDog17]

Seeing how McDavid has openly stated he is a leaf fan at heart, the Leafs should 100% offer sheet him when he comes up, with a contract that both would hurt the oilers financially to match, and last just until he is UFA eligible. If they match (I believe they would), you make a monster offer when he hits UFA.
I would do the same with Ekblad.

 

[The Legend]

Seeing how McDavid has openly stated he is a leaf fan at heart, the Leafs should 100% offer sheet him when he comes up, with a contract that both would hurt the oilers financially to match, and last just until he is UFA eligible. If they match (I believe they would), you make a monster offer when he hits UFA.
I would do the same with Ekblad.

I can't see the harm. If the only reason to avoid doing it is because "other teams will be mad at us!", then you're grasping at straws.

 

[Apotheosis]

Leafs will probably be one of the only teams with the cap space to offer sheet him and mess up the Oilers cap.

 

[indigobuffalo]

I cherry picked this part, because I agree with what you're saying - the player either has to be generational, or it has to be someone that is underrated enough that you can nab him for a small AAV and sacrifice a 2nd round pick only.

In regards to making an offer that is difficult to match, as I mentioned earlier, if it can't happen from a cap perspective, it can from a cash perspective.

For example: The most Shea Weber will make in a season is $14M. If I was the Leafs and I was offer sheeting McDavid, I would juice the first season - say, $24M in salary. Then subsequent seasons can be decreased to comply with the cap and keep the AAV for the 7 year contract in the 14M range.

Just a thought.

Don't forget the Weber deal is a back diving contract signed prior to the new CBA.

It's really hard to make a 7-year contract be "too onerous" for a budget team. The new CBA even has rules on how much cash a player gets year-to-year (i.e. a specific percentage per year).

On top of that, compensation is determined by the average of the 5 highest earning years, not the AAV of the entire contract, so front-loading the deal means you likely are pumping yourself up to 4x 1st rounder compensation.

No matter how you slice it, offer sheets are dangerous business at the best of times. The ONLY teams that should be considering offer sheets are teams vying for the Cup wanting to hamstring a divisional rival.

The perfect example was San Jose offer sheeting Hjalmarsson so that Chicago would have to let Niemi his free agency, and San Jose scooped up the player they really wanted for free.

 

[indigobuffalo]

The problem is - as amazing of a player McDavid is, I don't think I'd want to destroy by paying a player 14 million per.

Edmonton better not let McDavid get to the point where he can be offer sheeted. Because if he does there is at least one NHL GM that will not care about that, and at least one that will do it because they KNOW Edmonton could never let a team offer sheet McDavid so they would 100% match, which then screws Edmonton because a 20% cap hit is an anchor to the NHL's basement.

 

[Apotheosis]

Don't forget the Weber deal is a back diving contract signed prior to the new CBA.

It's really hard to make a 7-year contract be "too onerous" for a budget team. The new CBA even has rules on how much a cash a player gets year-to-year.

On top of that, compensation is determined by the average of the 5 highest earning years, not the AAV of the entire contract, so front-loading the deal means you likely are pumping yourself up to 4x 1st rounder compensation.

No matter how you slice it, offer sheets are dangerous business at the best of times. The ONLY teams that should be considering offer sheets are teams vying for the Cup wanting to hamstring a divisional rival.

The perfect example was San Jose offer sheeting Hjalmarsson so that Chicago would have to let Niemi his free agency, and San Jose scooped up the player they really wanted for free.

I disagree. You have to look at it as a bigger picture. The way I see it, the only teams that could actually afford a max offer sheet for McDavid are Buffalo and Toronto.

Look at it this way. If you're either of those teams, you have a deep prospect pool with blue chippers in Toronto's case, or your blue chippers are already coming into effect in the NHL in Buffalo's case. Adding someone like McDavid even at this stage of the development of both rebuilds is huge because he makes everyone around him better which speeds up the development of your players AND his age is in line with what we are building towards. If there's anyone who could build around a max contract player, it's Shanny and his crew.

Edmonton better not let McDavid get to the point where he can be offer sheeted. Because if he does there is at least one NHL GM that will not care about that, and at least one that will do it because they KNOW Edmonton could never let a team offer sheet McDavid so they would 100% match, which then screws Edmonton because a 20% cap hit is an anchor to the NHL's basement.

That's the point. He gets offer sheeted, it's a win win for us and whoever else would have the cap space for him. They match, handicapping any potential chance they have of actually winning (no way with 20% of the cap on him, will they be able to sign enough depth, a number 1 D and a number 1 G while being competitive) or they don't match, build around who they have without him, and we get McDavid. That's about it.