The Jets' RFAs in 2016

[Evil Little]

I think people are missing what a bridge deal is and what it does for both sides. The goal is not to play a young player full price for a short term contract. The whole point is to keep costs down while you determine what kind of player they will grow into. With Maatta signing a long term contract, which includes several expensive UFA years, at a little over $4 million AAV, it is ludicrous to offer sign Trouba to MORE money per year when buying two RFA years. Even if you think he is much better than Maatta, you would still offer him $4 million, at the most, for a bridge. If you are going to pay $5 million, you do it long term.

This is almost all true, except that Maatta only signed away two UFA years. That kept the money down, I think.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think people are missing what a bridge deal is and what it does for both sides. The goal is not to play a young player full price for a short term contract. The whole point is to keep costs down while you determine what kind of player they will grow into. With Maatta signing a long term contract, which includes several expensive UFA years, at a little over $4 million AAV, it is ludicrous to offer sign Trouba to MORE money per year when buying two RFA years. Even if you think he is much better than Maatta, you would still offer him $4 million, at the most, for a bridge. If you are going to pay $5 million, you do it long term.

I'm pretty unconvinced by Trouba. I see the potential, but much less of the work ethic that Scheifle has. I'm beginning to feel that Trouba's ceiling may be as a 2/3, which would still be great, but not 8 years, $7 million great. I think, as others have said, that both sides may be interested in a bridge; the Jets to see what it is they have and Trouba to put up a couple of seasons of performance without Stuart. Two years at $3.75 million.

Also agree with the earlier poster that there is no chance Scheif signs any long term contact that approaches $5 million AAV. The going rate for centres of his calibre and age starts at $6 million. If you could get him for 8 years and $6.5 million, I think the Jets would be very happy, although my guess is that his camp will want him to sign his next contract while he is still in his 20's and may push for only 6 or 7 years.

Playing with the numbers a bit, what about 5.5, 5.75, 5.75 (RFA years), 7.5, 4.5 (lockout year), 8.25, 8.25 for an AAV of $6.5 million over 7 years?

Still too much for Trouba. Ryan Murray just signed 2x2.85. That's the comparable for Trouba. Puts his upper limit at 2x3.

I don't know who you are comparing Scheifele to. Couturier just signed 6x4.33 and Barkov 6x5.9. Scheif belongs between those 2 which split at 5.1. I think he is closer to Barkov than to Couts so I would go 5.5 for 6 years. 8 years gets 6-6.2 mil. JMO The idea is to get him for less than you would have to pay him after a bridge. If there is no saving then why risk the long term commitment?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Bogo's was $2M + $3M with a lower cap

$2.5M + $3.5M seems right

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I get the feeling that Both Scheif and Trouba sign long term deals, 6 or 7 years for one, 7 or 8 for the other... I could also see Lowry signing long term cuz it's pretty obvious the organization is high on him. The rest, they get 2 year deals max, that's not including the AHL guys who outside of Kichton and Lipon, I could care less about. Think Brassard gets a new deal 2 despite what some are saying, the guy has played well this year and yeah his shooting percentage is high but, from the games i've been 2, he's been quite noticeable in a good way, He's a good AHL player, perhaps a late bloomer of sorts.

 

[Duke749]

I don't think they sign Lowry long term yet. He had a good rookie year followed by a rough sophomore year. Still lots for him to have to prove even if they are high on him.

 

[csk]

I don't think they sign Lowry long term yet. He had a good rookie year followed by a rough sophomore year. Still lots for him to have to prove even if they are high on him.

He gets a Burmi-style bridge deal

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I know people on these boards aren't high on Lowry but the people that matter certainly seem to be.

 

[csk]

I know people on these boards aren't high on Lowry but the people that matter certainly seem to be.

I don't think that it's being low on Lowry... just realistic on what he has shown so far. Most still seem to think he has middle 6 upside despite the sophomore slump

 

[Aavco Cup]

I get the feeling that Both Scheif and Trouba sign long term deals, 6 or 7 years for one, 7 or 8 for the other... I could also see Lowry signing long term cuz it's pretty obvious the organization is high on him. The rest, they get 2 year deals max, that's not including the AHL guys who outside of Kichton and Lipon, I could care less about. Think Brassard gets a new deal 2 despite what some are saying, the guy has played well this year and yeah his shooting percentage is high but, from the games i've been 2, he's been quite noticeable in a good way, He's a good AHL player, perhaps a late bloomer of sorts.

It's not that we're down on Lowry, it's just that players in his strata don't sign long term deals out of their ELC. It just doesn't happen. It only happens with the top tier players.

 

[Grind]

I don't think they sign Lowry long term yet. He had a good rookie year followed by a rough sophomore year. Still lots for him to have to prove even if they are high on him.

I know people on these boards aren't high on Lowry but the people that matter certainly seem to be.

I don't think that it's being low on Lowry... just realistic on what he has shown so far. Most still seem to think he has middle 6 upside despite the sophomore slump

It's not that we're down on Lowry, it's just that players in his strata don't sign long term deals out of their ELC. It just doesn't happen. It only happens with the top tier players.

This is pretty much it.

Also, even if Lowry is what folks may "think" he is (lets say a high quality third line C, who could spot duty as a 2c - he is definitly not this) you also usually don't see those types of guys get long term contracts.

Look at a guy like Perrault, or Nick Bonino. The longest term you ever give to a player in that range is 4 years, and i wouldn't do that yet with Lowry.

for the quality of player he is right now, i never give him a long term deal. If he maintains/improves, i'd at the longest do like a 3 year deal, and pretty much only if i'm eating at least 1 ufa year there.

too much risk in tieing up contracts with guys that may not even pan out as plus third liners. Not that's it's likely, but if he tanks, reverts, never gets better then he was for most of this season, anything long term could quickly become a Stuart/Thorburn contract. Especially when younger, better players come up and get roadblocked by him.

For guys with his upside/pedigree/etc, the risk/reward just doesn't seem to be there for long term deals for a guy like Lowry.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think they sign Lowry long term yet. He had a good rookie year followed by a rough sophomore year. Still lots for him to have to prove even if they are high on him.

I think that both Lowry and Trouba would prefer the bridge deals themselves. They both need to boost their play to earn bigger money before signing long term.

Edit: Should not neglect to say that Scheif has definitely earned the long term deal. Only how long and how much remain to be worked out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is pretty much it.

Also, even if Lowry is what folks may "think" he is (lets say a high quality third line C, who could spot duty as a 2c - he is definitly not this) you also usually don't see those types of guys get long term contracts.

Look at a guy like Perrault, or Nick Bonino. The longest term you ever give to a player in that range is 4 years, and i wouldn't do that yet with Lowry.

for the quality of player he is right now, i never give him a long term deal. If he maintains/improves, i'd at the longest do like a 3 year deal, and pretty much only if i'm eating at least 1 ufa year there.

too much risk in tieing up contracts with guys that may not even pan out as plus third liners. Not that's it's likely, but if he tanks, reverts, never gets better then he was for most of this season, anything long term could quickly become a Stuart/Thorburn contract. Especially when younger, better players come up and get roadblocked by him.

For guys with his upside/pedigree/etc, the risk/reward just doesn't seem to be there for long term deals for a guy like Lowry.

Sums it up. I think there are going to be a few 1 year deals handed out, 2 tops.

 

[garret9]

I know people on these boards aren't high on Lowry but the people that matter certainly seem to be.

High on him and what he's done is two different things.

An RFA who has performed like Lowry is not going to get a big payday, despite whether we, management, or even Lowry, is high on him.

 

[gbill2004*]

Lawless and Button were just on TSN. They both agreed they'd go 8 years with Scheifele that'll cost $6m+ AAV.

 

[Duke749]

Lawless and Button were just on TSN. They both agreed they'd go 8 years with Scheifele that'll cost $6m+ AAV.

I know I'd do the term. I just don't know where the AAV would be honestly. I'd love anything under $6 but I see $6+ thrown out so maybe I'm off base.

 

[garret9]

Guess it depends on how you compare Scheif to Barkov deal

 

[Channelcat]

We love to spend money around here. I am very high on Scheif, but when I look at the comparibles I just dont see a 6M$ aav. Even for an 8 year deal. I like the 6x4.8M$ range more than 8x6. Yes, we get two less years but that little extra space makes a big difference in the meantime

 

[csk]

We love to spend money around here. I am very high on Scheif, but when I look at the comparibles I just dont see a 6M$ aav. Even for an 8 year deal. I like the 6x4.8M$ range more than 8x6. Yes, we get two less years but that little extra space makes a big difference in the meantime

I'm not to concerned about locking him up for too long... he seems like the type of person who won't look to leave when he becomes a UFA

 

[Aavco Cup]

I know I'd do the term. I just don't know where the AAV would be honestly. I'd love anything under $6 but I see $6+ thrown out so maybe I'm off base.

It will probably take $50M to get Scheifele's signature on a 8 yr contract.

 

[KingBogo]

It will probably take $50M to get Scheifele's signature on a 8 yr contract.

Agreed. Maybe you get an AAV of 5.5 - 6 for a 6 year deal on 6 - 6.5 on an 8 year deal. But my feeling is how the Jets handle the RFA contracts will be vitally important for this organization. Signing Scheif and Trouba long term now will keep the AAV down for when there is a lot of upward pressure on the cap. IMO unless the organization plans to use the available cap room in the short term to sign vets on short contracts (which I doubt) you are better off spreading out the cap hit to allow for more room to sign guys like Ehlers, Connor (Matthews ) when they are coming off their ELC's. This is for guys you know will be key pieces. Guys like Lowry there are still way too many question marks so he needs to be bridged.

 

[gbill2004*]

Trouba should be bridged too...lots of risk there with him. Need to see more before committing long-term.

 

[KingBogo]

Trouba should be bridged too...lots of risk there with him. Need to see more before committing long-term.

He is already a top four defenseman at 22 y/o. Even if the guy never developed past where he is now he is worth a long term contract pushing $5M AAV. I don't see much risk at all. The risk I see is him really starting to hit his groove over the next couple years and he costs us 2-3 M more per season impacting decisions on the other top young players coming off their ELC's. There is a reason why the trend is to lock up top young talent yearly. Cost certainty in a cap depressed world is very valuable.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I think Trouba camp will push for a bridge deal. I don't think they'll lock in for Maatta money. They'll gamble there's a bigger payday down the road.They will try and follow the Johansen model with a three year bridge with a big jump in year 3. The Jets will resist. He may not be signed when TC opens. If he's selected to the U23 team will he play without a contract? I don't think so.

 

[KingBogo]

I think Trouba camp will push for a bridge deal. I don't think they'll lock in for Maatta money. They'l gamble there's a bigger payday down the road.They will try and follow the Johansen model with a three year bridge with a big jump in year 3. The Jets will resist. He may not be signed when TC opens. If he's selected to the U23 team will he play without a contract? I don't think so.

Agreed. A bridge deal will be risky for the Jets. Trouba might be a tough guy to keep around without a big long term contract.

 

[gbill2004*]

Agreed. A bridge deal will be risky for the Jets. Trouba might be a tough guy to keep around without a big long term contract.

That's why a trade might be a better option.