The Jets' RFAs in 2016

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

I think everyone is over-estimating Armia's price. To some extent, Lowry's, too. I have high hopes for Joel over the next few years, but there's no reason to pay him for his potential, especially short-term. You pay him for what he HAS done, even when you know (or suspect) that he can and will do much more. One million x 2.

I agree, I was just going to post the same thing. A lot of people all ways pump the tires of our up and coming newbies and over value them come contract time. These players are RFAs and do not have extensive NHL resumes. We sent Lowry and Armia down to the Moose this year and they did not even tear up the AHL.
I believe both have potential but can be had for 2 years at 1.25 mill per year.....max

People want to give Lipon a 2 year deal at 875k per. He gets a min qualifying 2 way 1 yr offer at best. He will be lucky to make opening day roster. (yes I know he will have to pass through waivers next year). But if he cannot make our team at training camp......... not many teams other than the Oilers may pick him off waivers.

Last Summer it was the same thing with Hutch and Chairott. They had medium success at the end of the season and the same people on here want to give them both 1.5-1.75 mill per year. (you posters now who you are) I said then that Postma, Chairott and Hutch will all sign around 800k per and will just be thrilled to be getting one way deals.

 

[Grind]

I think the term is a little trickier than the way you are putting it. The next contract starting when they are 28 or 29 might be better than if they are 30 or 31. At the higher age you have a situation like Ladd's. They are too good to let them go but not good enough to justify their next contract. I would rather be signing them for another 6 at 29 than another 6 at 31. That and the AAV is lower for 6 than it is for 8. Considering those 2 factors the 6 year deal may be better for all concerned. There are pros and cons to each.

i'd rather not be signing anyone that's 29 to a six year deal.

structure the contract so their coming up at 30.

If you rnot going to get him back afterwords, then you trad ehim at 30.

Who cares? you got their best years already.

Better to walk away from a 30 yearold asset that's priced themself out of your range, then have one leave you at 28.

To me, totally not worth it to be concerned about the contract afterwards.

approach your extension a year before UFA. If it's not happening, move on from the 30 yearold.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

i'd rather not be signing anyone that's 29 to a six year deal.

structure the contract so their coming up at 30.

If you rnot going to get him back afterwords, then you trad ehim at 30.

Who cares? you got their best years already.

Better to walk away from a 30 yearold asset that's priced themself out of your range, then have one leave you at 28.

To me, totally not worth it to be concerned about the contract afterwards.

approach your extension a year before UFA. If it's not happening, move on from the 30 yearold.

Can't exactly disagree but I don't think the Ladd situation was ideal. We are talking a choice between 29 and 31 here for when the next contract would start or 28 to 30 for when it would be negotiated. I would rather Ladd had been 2 years younger. Then offering him 6 years would have been the same end date as if we could now have signed him for 4. A lot less term worry that way. Also consider that 6 year AAV will be from .5 to .75 mil/yr cheaper. If you have to move them at the end it is better to be trading a 29 YO than a 31 YO at the deadline.

I also like the idea of having your best young players locked up for as long as possible but the whole picture has to be considered. In the end it will come down to the negotiating. The player, or his agent may resist going the full 8 years or require a lot of extra money for those last 2 years.

 

[10Ducky10]

What do we do with them?
Here are my opinions...

Scheif 7 x 6m per 8 X 6.5M
Trouba 2 x 4m per 2X 3.5M
Armia 2 x 2m per
Lowry 2 x 1.75m per
Hutch 2 x 700k per (TWO WAY CONTRACT)
Lipon 2 x 850k (TWO WAY CONTRACT)
Cormier minor league two way contract (TWO WAY CONTRACT)
Kichton minor league two way contract (TWO WAY CONTRACT)
Brassard minor league two way contract (TWO WAY CONTRACT)
MacWilliam minor league two way contractGONE
Melchiori minor league two way contract (TWO WAY CONTRACT)

It was late when I started this and I changed a couple of things now that I am more awake...

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Lowry only went to the A because they couldn't send Burmi there instead.

While Lowry was in the A he was a point per game player on the tire fire Moose team though. That's pretty good even though it was a small sample size.

Considering what Hoffman got in arbitration though it's probably true both Armia and Lowry could be had for less than my originally projected 1.5.

 

[Coach G]

To be clear, I'm not down on either Armia or Lowry, I just think RFA market value is less.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It was late when I started this and I changed a couple of things now that I am more awake...

Scheif - that's still top dollar.
Trouba - too much for a bridge
Armia - too much - he's done less than Lowry.
Lowry - too much - he hasn't done enough
Hutch - I think only 1 year. He is on 1 way now. Hard to back up to 2 way. He will need waivers either way.
Lipon - hasn't earned 850k. More like 650-700. Yes 2 year, 2 way.
Minor league contracts are all 1 way - no NHL.
Can we please say 'good-bye and good luck' to Cormier. PLEASE!

Lowry only went to the A because they couldn't send Burmi there instead.

While Lowry was in the A he was a point per game player on the tire fire Moose team though. That's pretty good even though it was a small sample size.

Considering what Hoffman got in arbitration though it's probably true both Armia and Lowry could be had for less than my originally projected 1.5.

I think Lowry went to the A because he needed the kick in the butt. He probably should have stayed down there a little longer but somebody got injured. Forget who. Was that Scheif then? Burmi probably should have had a stint there too.

 

[Koonta]

I hope Lowry comes back next year alot meaner than he was this year. He lacked that IMO and some of what he was missing this year. I believe he is playing better lately and hope he bounces back next year from the get go.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Scheif 7 years at 5M
Trouba 2 years at 5M
Armia 3 years at 1.5M
Lowry 5 years at 2M
Hutch - Walk
Lipon 3 years at 900k
Cormier - Walk
Kichton - 3 year two-way
Brassard - Walk
MacWilliam - Walk
Melchiori - Walk

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I hope Lowry comes back next year alot meaner than he was this year. He lacked that IMO and some of what he was missing this year. I believe he is playing better lately and hope he bounces back next year from the get go.

I'm not seeing much mention of it but I think Chiarot has been gradually improving almost all year. Since moving back to the left side he has been mostly pretty good by my eye test. When I have noticed him it has usually been for a good play. The rest of the time I haven't noticed him much at all, which is good.

 

[Flair Hay]

I'd say try and get Scheifele for 8 years at around the same AAV as Barkov.

Trouba I think it's in his and the team's best interest to do a bridge. He hasn't earned the huge contract yet that he will want. Keep the carrot in front of him and hope he takes off over the next 2 years. 2 yrs, $3M per.

Lowry and Armia will likely be okay with qualifying offers. If not, 2 years, 900k.

If the team holds onto Pavelec, as is tradition, I could see them not qualifying Hutch. Would put Hellebuyck in the NHL, give Comrie big mins and we could bring in Phillips on an ELC. Would prefer a Pavelec buyout and qualifying Hutch but not expecting it.

 

[BigZ65]

I'd say try and get Scheifele for 8 years at around the same AAV as Barkov.

Trouba I think it's in his and the team's best interest to do a bridge. He hasn't earned the huge contract yet that he will want. Keep the carrot in front of him and hope he takes off over the next 2 years. 2 yrs, $3M per.

Lowry and Armia will likely be okay with qualifying offers. If not, 2 years, 900k.

If the team holds onto Pavelec, as is tradition, I could see them not qualifying Hutch. Would put Hellebuyck in the NHL, give Comrie big mins and we could bring in Phillips on an ELC. Would prefer a Pavelec buyout and qualifying Hutch but not expecting it.

Agree with all of this.

If they sign Phillips, there's no reason for a guy like Hutch. Have Comrie and a guy on a AHL deal with the Moose, Phillips playing in the ECHL for the most part.

 

[KingBogo]

i'd rather not be signing anyone that's 29 to a six year deal.

structure the contract so their coming up at 30.

If you rnot going to get him back afterwords, then you trad ehim at 30.

Who cares? you got their best years already.

Better to walk away from a 30 yearold asset that's priced themself out of your range, then have one leave you at 28.

To me, totally not worth it to be concerned about the contract afterwards.

approach your extension a year before UFA. If it's not happening, move on from the 30 yearold.

I think Scheif just might be one of those guys who will sign an 8 year deal because it guarantees him he gets to play hockey for another 8 years. I'm calling Mark signs a $50 M - 8 year deal for a AAV of $6.25 which takes him to 31 y/o. perfect team contract. After that he signs 2 year deals for fair market value until he retires a Jet. He wears the C for a decade and hoists 2 cups

 

[robertocarlos]

Scheif 7 years at 5M
Trouba 2 years at 5M
Armia 3 years at 1.5M
Lowry 5 years at 2M
Hutch - Walk
Lipon 3 years at 900k
Cormier - Walk
Kichton - 3 year two-way
Brassard - Walk
MacWilliam - Walk
Melchiori - Walk

You added 14 million in Cap when they only have 12 million in Cap space. What are the projections?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Scheif just might be one of those guys who will sign an 8 year deal because it guarantees him he gets to play hockey for another 8 years. I'm calling Mark signs a $50 M - 8 year deal for a AAV of $6.25 which takes him to 31 y/o. perfect team contract. After that he signs 2 year deals for fair market value until he retires a Jet. He wears the C for a decade and hoists 2 cups

Why doesn't he hoist the other 2?

50 for 8 has a nice ring to it. With that in his pocket I doubt he has much trouble getting a car loan or a mortgage.

 

[KingBogo]

You added 14 million in Cap when they only have 12 million in Cap space. What are the projections?

The Jets have $20.5 M projected cap space available next season with 17 players already under contract. Scheif, Trouba, Lowry and Armia brings that to 22. Add in Helly and Connor you have yourself a lineup staying well under the cap.

 

[KingBogo]

Why doesn't he hoist the other 2?

50 for 8 has a nice ring to it. With that in his pocket I doubt he has much trouble getting a car loan or a mortgage.

Because Wheeler is still captain for the 1st 2

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Because Wheeler is still captain for the 1st 2

D'oh!

 

[10Ducky10]

If we bridge Trouba, does he have arbitration rights after that contract is done?

 

[Gm0ney]

If we bridge Trouba, does he have arbitration rights after that contract is done?

Yes. If a player signed his ELC at 18-20 years old, he's eligible for arbitration after 4 years in the NHL. So Trouba would be eligible after a 1 or 2 year bridge deal.

 

[garret9]

By all accounts Brassard has been pretty good this year. I think they probably qualify him

Heh. I'm sure his 22% sh% has a part to play in that.

He has improved though. Probably will get QO. Not sure he's really worth it though.

 

[garret9]

Lowry only went to the A because they couldn't send Burmi there instead.

While Lowry was in the A he was a point per game player on the tire fire Moose team though. That's pretty good even though it was a small sample size.

Considering what Hoffman got in arbitration though it's probably true both Armia and Lowry could be had for less than my originally projected 1.5.

No. Lowry went to the A because he was legit playing poorly. They did not need to make room on the roster for someone and were stuck choosing Lowry.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Scheif 7 years at 5M
Trouba 2 years at 5M
Armia 3 years at 1.5M
Lowry 5 years at 2M
Hutch - Walk
Lipon 3 years at 900k
Cormier - Walk
Kichton - 3 year two-way
Brassard - Walk
MacWilliam - Walk
Melchiori - Walk

This is bizarre

Scheifele will never sign that deal for 7 years. His agents are not idiots.

Trouba will never get a bridge deal for that much. It's almost twice as much as Murray's bridge deal. The other 29 GM's would lynch Chevy for severely altering the marketplace.

Lowry is a one or two year contract. Don't see why either side goes 5 years.

Armia Kitchton & Lipon similar especially Lipon...don't see a 3 year deal there. They just don't happen for tweeners. Armia would only do it with a big raise in year three. Doubt the Jets do that. More likely Kitchton and Lipon get 1 yr contracts.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Heh. I'm sure his 22% sh% has a part to play in that.

He has improved though. Probably will get QO. Not sure he's really worth it though.

He's certainly borderline, a longshot but he is still improving at a decent rate, even if you deduct a bit for the sh%. I think that makes him worth keeping for another year. If he never develops into an NHL player he may at least become a worthwhile AHLer. As a 5th round pick he was never more than a longshot to begin with.

 

[powder88]

Scheif 7 years at 5M
Trouba 2 years at 5M
Armia 3 years at 1.5M
Lowry 5 years at 2M
Hutch - Walk
Lipon 3 years at 900k
Cormier - Walk
Kichton - 3 year two-way
Brassard - Walk
MacWilliam - Walk
Melchiori - Walk

I think people are missing what a bridge deal is and what it does for both sides. The goal is not to play a young player full price for a short term contract. The whole point is to keep costs down while you determine what kind of player they will grow into. With Maatta signing a long term contract, which includes several expensive UFA years, at a little over $4 million AAV, it is ludicrous to offer sign Trouba to MORE money per year when buying two RFA years. Even if you think he is much better than Maatta, you would still offer him $4 million, at the most, for a bridge. If you are going to pay $5 million, you do it long term.

I'm pretty unconvinced by Trouba. I see the potential, but much less of the work ethic that Scheifle has. I'm beginning to feel that Trouba's ceiling may be as a 2/3, which would still be great, but not 8 years, $7 million great. I think, as others have said, that both sides may be interested in a bridge; the Jets to see what it is they have and Trouba to put up a couple of seasons of performance without Stuart. Two years at $3.75 million.

Also agree with the earlier poster that there is no chance Scheif signs any long term contact that approaches $5 million AAV. The going rate for centres of his calibre and age starts at $6 million. If you could get him for 8 years and $6.5 million, I think the Jets would be very happy, although my guess is that his camp will want him to sign his next contract while he is still in his 20's and may push for only 6 or 7 years.

Playing with the numbers a bit, what about 5.5, 5.75, 5.75 (RFA years), 7.5, 4.5 (lockout year), 8.25, 8.25 for an AAV of $6.5 million over 7 years?