The Jake Gardiner Situation

[Daisy Jane]

Respectfully Daisy, God no

He's being under appreciated for one awful performance

i don't think it's fair that if people feel that we should move him it's because of that one performance. maybe for a lot of people (i'll readily admit), it's the cherry on top of it. I personally don't think he's reliable. now i know people will stat-stat me, about how good he really is, and that's fine, but i just don't think he's got it between the ears.

i would trade him and get someone smarter (or more reliable)
i know the argument is here, well he has 50+ points and skates real well which means he's awesome. i don't think the Leafs should commit to him long term. and since i feel that way, i feel we should trade'em. I'll feel this way basically until Christmas, (like I did w/JvR and Bozak) then it will be too late.

now I do stand by what i said that i don't think it's losing "something" if someone choses free agency and you don't get more assets because cap space etc are assets. however, i've also consistently said you don't wanna do it every single year. we did it 3x this year, because of Lou's utter lack of putting a stake in the ground one way or the other, and the last thing Kyle needs to be doing to playing the half pregnant game too.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Keep him then for a playoff push, always need extra D. Not sure how people are so confident in a very young & inexperienced Dermott to gift him a top 4 role......failure would mean a missed deep playoff push and perhaps stunt Dermott’s development of rushed too soon. The Leafs are a developing young team.....not a rebuilding one. Leafs had a great season this year and lost in round one vs a good opponent.....but those young players gained invaluable experience along the way......that will show eventually. Good teams let good players walk for free when they have a shot at a deep run and Leafs had a chance this year.....and they will have a chance for multi more years ahead.

i'm not.
i'd make a trade for a quality defenseman myself.
put Dermott on third pairing and let him feast on that, and move him up slowly.

 

[Hunter368]

Good teams don't do that year after year though or they run out of players and are no longer that good.

Fair.....do teams exceed 100+ Points often?

I’m just saying if you feel you’re close, hard to say the Leafs weren’t a contender last this year, you go for it. The Leafs gambled and kept JVR & Bozak as their playoff rentals this and lost. But give the Leafs credit, it was a ballsy move......but at times you don’t get a chance at the brass ring this year they had a decent chance. Too early to say about next year......decide that through the season once you see how the team is doing and how Dermott is doing.....why make a big risky move now for no reason.

See my point?

 

[Hunter368]

i'm not.
i'd make a trade for a quality defenseman myself.
put Dermott on third pairing and let him feast on that, and move him up slowly.

Just so I’m clear on your post, you’re saying?

- Trade Gardiner during summer Likely for futures

- Play Dermott 3rd pairing

- Trade for a quality top 4 D with at least 2 years term to give Dermott time to develop. Sorry not trying to put words in your mouth or be misleading, just trying to understand your post and read between lines.

Who is the quality top 4 D you want to get and how much do the Leafs have to give up to get him?

Is the difference in performance between this new D and Gardiner worth the extra assets you give up? I doubt anyone giving up a quality top 4 D is going to take nothing but magic beans

 

[WTFMAN99]

Gardiner is definitely worth a 1st round pick with a nice plus on top. Shattenkirk returned like 4 pieces and Gardiner is better defensively and he might actually re-sign with the team that acquires him. Shattenkirk was making a bee line for NYR and everyone knew it.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Just so I’m clear on your post, you’re saying?

- Trade Gardiner during summer Likely for futures

- Play Dermott 3rd pairing

- Trade for a quality top 4 D with at least 2 years term to give Dermott time to develop. Sorry not trying to put words in your mouth or be misleading, just trying to understand your post and read between lines.

Who is the quality top 4 D you want to get and how much do the Leafs have to give up to get him?

Is the difference in performance between this new D and Gardiner worth the extra assets you give up? I doubt anyone giving up a quality top 4 D is going to take nothing but magic beans

for me it doesn't have to be futures, it could be a lateral move. I would be fine if Dubas made some moves (and the team took a step back next year, let the new pieces gel together, and then take a surging step the following year). I don't really have names in mind but if it took moving a few pieces out to get some few pieces back in, I personally would be fine with it.

however, i think what they are going to do is commit to Jake. and then whatever happens after that happens.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Fair.....do teams exceed 100+ Points often?

I’m just saying if you feel you’re close, hard to say the Leafs weren’t a contender last this year, you go for it. The Leafs gambled and kept JVR & Bozak as their playoff rentals this and lost. But give the Leafs credit, it was a ballsy move......but at times you don’t get a chance at the brass ring this year they had a decent chance. Too early to say about next year......decide that through the season once you see how the team is doing and how Dermott is doing.....why make a big risky move now for no reason.

See my point?

I think there's good reason to believe that this core will be good for a while, so it makes sense to try to supplement it with assets that will help it for a while

even for the best team in the league in a given year, it's a long shot to win a cup. The best way to build a contender is to do it in a way that it's a contender for a long window - you're much more likely to win by being a top 5-10 team for a decade than you are by being a #1 team for one year

I get what you're saying about why to go for it when the time is right, but just like it was with JVR&Bozak it's unlikely that the Leafs win the cup even if they enter the playoffs as the favourite (which in itself is probably unlikely) so keeping the expiring asset for a very marginal increase in chance to win is a poor asset management choice and short sighted for the chances of winning championships

we're going to end up in a situation where Dermott is going to sink or swim in 2019/20 anyway, might as well see what we've got while getting something for Gardiner that can be used to upgrade where it's needed including 2nd pairing LHD if that's what it comes to

 

[diceman934]

For the first month after game 7 I would have sold Gardiner for a 2nd round pick, I feel like a lot of leaf fans were similarly very upset about his poor play in such a big game. However as time passed I realize how effective jake Gardiner is and the fact that he had a great regular season. Gardiner is a 2/3 dman who has been given poor partners to play with for a long time. People value guys like tanev, hjalmarsson, faulk, brodie etc but Gardiner is a better and more valuable defender than those guys both analytically speaking and statistically speaking.

@Morgs @Nithoniniel could probably provide anyone interested a more in depth review on why Gardiner excels as a defender and why his mistakes are minimal compared to his significant offensive and transitioning abilities for our backend. For me, its pretty simple. We are trying to sell Gardiner off for defenders who are not overall as valuable as gardiner(Gardiner is a very high end offensive player imo).

We are banking a lot on dermott being a top 4 defender next season when he was our worst defender in the playoffs and played bottom pairing mins in the regular season. I feel dermott will be ready to handle these minutes as time moves on but he needs support. I feel investing in Jake on a 5 year deal for 6.25 million is a fair deal for both sides.

We can have a Gardiner or rielly transition to the right side and pair them together. I want to see these two play together on a elite team with a more balanced offensive forward group. Trading/Letting Gardiner walk is not beneficial for the leafs aa we likely dont have a LHD who can play in the second pair and be as valuable as Jake for the next 2-3 years(this is when I predict Dermott overtakes Gardiner for on ice impact).

Gardiner beforw this playoff series against the bruins has 13 games of playing like a elite number 1 against bruins in 13 and caps in 17. For all his boneheaded mistakes, he has the ability to munch minutes, generate offense and move the puck out of our zone cleanly and consistently. I really hope dubas and Babcock view him as a support piece to the core like kadri and Andersen. I want him back on a 5 year deal b/w 5.75 to 6.25 million.

I agree and Rielly and Gardiner played together when the Leafs were an average at best team and in the shorten season. Gardiner struggled anytime playing the right side and does not like it but Rielly is our best Right D man right now. I mentioned this early in the last season and now I can see it happening as we now have a little more depth.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I agree and Rielly and Gardiner played together when the Leafs were an average at best team and in the shorten season. Gardiner struggled anytime playing the right side and does not like it but Rielly is our best Right D man right now. I mentioned this early in the last season and now I can see it happening as we now have a little more depth.

I don't think Rielly played right side at all last season. I don't think he has at all since Hunwick left.

 

[diceman934]

I don't think Rielly played right side at all last season. I don't think he has at all since Hunwick left.

He played a lot on the right side last year.

 

[1specter]

Can't lose another guy to free agency for nothing and he's likely to price himself off our team next season... make the move, Dubas.

The thought of him making $6m a year for us makes me queasy. Feed Dermott his minutes.

Would you do 5.5? I think Gardiner under 6M for 5-7 yrs is pretty solid.

What most people will gloss over is that Gardiner will likely age well. Fairly healthy career, and his fitness level is elite, he rarely seems to get tired and always gets better in the second half when the rest of the league hits a wall. Also plays more of a finesse game which should put less miles on him.

Gards is kinda like Brian Campbell in that sense, he'll be useful until his mid 30s.

 

[Lightsol]

Respectfully Daisy, God no

He's being under appreciated for one awful performance

It's not one awful performance. It's a consistent pattern of boneheaded plays and mistakes that repeatedly cost the Leafs, over and over and over again. It just happens that this time, they were actually playing for something when Gardiner screwed up. Again.

But apparently Leaf fans need repeats of this debacle before they realize, like Bryan McCabe, they aren't going to win shit with Jake Gardiner playing significant minutes and screwing up at terrible times...

 

[WTFMAN99]

He played a lot on the right side last year.

With who?

It was Rielly-Zaitsev last year a lot, and this year it was Rielly-Hainsey. Year prior to that it was Hunwick-Rielly for reasons.

 

[Buds17]

As with JVR last offseason, would like to be able to parlay him into asset(s) but it could be tough to do without taking a step back, or at least not moving forward. Might require having Borgman or Ozhiganov make the top six and acquiring another fairly significant D via trade or free agency. Think the idea is explored, but it may prove difficult to follow through on.

 

[1specter]

It's not one awful performance. It's a consistent pattern of boneheaded plays and mistakes that repeatedly cost the Leafs, over and over and over again. It just happens that this time, they were actually playing for something when Gardiner screwed up. Again.

But apparently Leaf fans need repeats of this debacle before they realize, like Bryan McCabe, they aren't going to win **** with Jake Gardiner playing significant minutes and screwing up at terrible times...

Gardiner has had 3 playoff performances and has been excellent in 2 of the 3. You say he costs us over and over again but the reality is he's often a key player in the second half of the season because his fitness/cardio are superior to most of the league and he is able to play some huge minutes effectively.

While I was disappointed with him this year, I can't forget the fact that just a year ago he was far and away the best defender against Washington and played a ton of critical minutes.

 

[Morgs]

For the first month after game 7 I would have sold Gardiner for a 2nd round pick, I feel like a lot of leaf fans were similarly very upset about his poor play in such a big game. However as time passed I realize how effective jake Gardiner is and the fact that he had a great regular season. Gardiner is a 2/3 dman who has been given poor partners to play with for a long time. People value guys like tanev, hjalmarsson, faulk, brodie etc but Gardiner is a better and more valuable defender than those guys both analytically speaking and statistically speaking.

@Morgs @Nithoniniel could probably provide anyone interested a more in depth review on why Gardiner excels as a defender and why his mistakes are minimal compared to his significant offensive and transitioning abilities for our backend. For me, its pretty simple. We are trying to sell Gardiner off for defenders who are not overall as valuable as gardiner(Gardiner is a very high end offensive player imo).

We are banking a lot on dermott being a top 4 defender next season when he was our worst defender in the playoffs and played bottom pairing mins in the regular season. I feel dermott will be ready to handle these minutes as time moves on but he needs support. I feel investing in Jake on a 5 year deal for 6.25 million is a fair deal for both sides.

We can have a Gardiner or rielly transition to the right side and pair them together. I want to see these two play together on a elite team with a more balanced offensive forward group. Trading/Letting Gardiner walk is not beneficial for the leafs aa we likely dont have a LHD who can play in the second pair and be as valuable as Jake for the next 2-3 years(this is when I predict Dermott overtakes Gardiner for on ice impact).

Gardiner beforw this playoff series against the bruins has 13 games of playing like a elite number 1 against bruins in 13 and caps in 17. For all his boneheaded mistakes, he has the ability to munch minutes, generate offense and move the puck out of our zone cleanly and consistently. I really hope dubas and Babcock view him as a support piece to the core like kadri and Andersen. I want him back on a 5 year deal b/w 5.75 to 6.25 million.

You pretty much said it all. He always ends up being the scapegoat because he ends up making the big mistake at the worst time. People always end up forgetting about the 99% of the time he's the best player on the ice.

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

Ideally he gets re-signed on a team friendly deal. If not he has to be moved. Losing both JVR and Gardiner for nothing in back to back seasons will set us back

Ideally he gets moved as soon as possible.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Anyone remember the days of McCabe and Kaberle.

Theyyyyy’re baaaaack!

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Ideally he gets moved as soon as possible.

i'm sure it's because of fair and objective analysis rather than you simply don't like him that you think this

 

[indigobuffalo]

Moving Gardiner now is dumb. So it will almost assuredly happen.

Much like how Kessel was dealt when his value was at its lowest.

 

[Hunter368]

I think there's good reason to believe that this core will be good for a while, so it makes sense to try to supplement it with assets that will help it for a while

even for the best team in the league in a given year, it's a long shot to win a cup. The best way to build a contender is to do it in a way that it's a contender for a long window - you're much more likely to win by being a top 5-10 team for a decade than you are by being a #1 team for one year

I get what you're saying about why to go for it when the time is right, but just like it was with JVR&Bozak it's unlikely that the Leafs win the cup even if they enter the playoffs as the favourite (which in itself is probably unlikely) so keeping the expiring asset for a very marginal increase in chance to win is a poor asset management choice and short sighted for the chances of winning championships

we're going to end up in a situation where Dermott is going to sink or swim in 2019/20 anyway, might as well see what we've got while getting something for Gardiner that can be used to upgrade where it's needed including 2nd pairing LHD if that's what it comes to

So we’re discussing a few things here:

- Agreed this current core is set to potentially compete for likely years.

- Completely agree build for long term success, don’t build for a flash in the pan.

- Agreed very hard to win the cup, even as the president cup winner.....never mind the rest of the teams.

- JVR/Bozak, I get the sense you didn’t agree with management keeping both players for a playoff run and sooner seen them traded for futures. Maybe I’m reading you wrong on this point. But the Leafs already have top 10 prospect pool and a deep team......you can only stack up the prospects so high before it becomes a waste. I don’t mind the Leafs letting both vets potentially walk, but it’s not a done deal yet. I think management showed moxie keeping them. They rolled the dice at the table and lost........but at least they took a shot. Hindsight is 20/20, it’s easy to criticize them now.......but if they were in the final right now everyone would of said it was a genius move and Shanny has the biggest balls in the Nhl. None of this is a shot at you, just giving my opinion.

- Leaders aren’t born, leadership is learnt through experience. The young core just learnt a great deal in this seven games, people shouldn’t minimize that. I’m old, I’ve failed lots in my life not ashamed to say it and successed even more but stay humble about it. But I’ve learnt “a lot” more from my failures then from my successes.

- So I agree a team can’t throw away assets every year, but I think Lou/Shanny saw this as the year to do it. They saw it as a win/win no matter what happened. Win the cup, great win. Lose in the first round, priceless experience for the young budding core/leaders on the team who gain valuable experience.

- Gardiner/Dermott: Just my personal choice, not saying right or wrong. I would keep Gardiner until you know what you have in Dermott. If Dermott fails (and you traded Gardiner away now) you lose a season and now need a top 4 LHD AND RHD........which is two big pieces to get via trade or FA.

Good chat, cheers!

Bed time for me

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Moving Gardiner now is dumb. So it will almost assuredly happen.

Much like how Kessel was dealt when his value was at its lowest.

When do they move him then? When he walks as a FA? He came off of arguably his best season of his career, so his value is not going to be any higher than it is now. One game is not going to touch his value at all.

 

[KIWILEAFFAN]

Moving Gardiner now is dumb. So it will almost assuredly happen.

Much like how Kessel was dealt when his value was at its lowest.

You're probably right.

It may be dumb but I sort of hope he goes in a trade or they at least find him a decent partner.
Of all the games I have watched this last few years, Gards has received by far the most screen abuse. For me to yell at an inanimate TV screen, it has to be bad

He is a good player but in my opinion he makes too many dumb mistakes at critical times, far too often.

 

[Duke Silver]

Would you do 5.5? I think Gardiner under 6M for 5-7 yrs is pretty solid.

What most people will gloss over is that Gardiner will likely age well. Fairly healthy career, and his fitness level is elite, he rarely seems to get tired and always gets better in the second half when the rest of the league hits a wall. Also plays more of a finesse game which should put less miles on him.

Gards is kinda like Brian Campbell in that sense, he'll be useful until his mid 30s.

I'd rather trade him now while his value is high (notwithstanding the Game 7 debacle) to shore up areas of weakness on the roster (RHD), promote Dermott to top-4 LHD, demote Hainsey down to third pairing duty on the right side, and have a more even back-end.

I still wouldn't want Gardiner at $5.5m because despite his offensive ability and possession metrics, he's a colossal liability out there.

I also think this is the best he's ever going to be. He may age well because he avoids contact like the best of them, but I don't think he's going to get any smarter out there.

 

[Menzinger]

Moving Gardiner now is dumb. So it will almost assuredly happen.

Much like how Kessel was dealt when his value was at its lowest.

It’s not dumb of the Leafs aren’t planning on resigning him.

Gardeners trade value is likely at an all time high (though I’d be willing to resign him for the right price).