Salary Cap: The Impending Cap Ceiling Issue

[EspenK]

I've been kicking around the cap situation for awhile now and to me I see problems arising as soon as the end of this year with the need to re-sign Jenner, Karlsson & Murray as well as add 2 D men who may or may not be Connauton & Prout. I have put a place holder/guesstimate salary in for the 3 RFA's I'm about 100% sure we'll re-sign. By my calculations and estimations we will have between 3.5 & 5 million to sign the 2 D if my estimates for the 3 F's are in the ballpark. And if we can avoid a cap problem this year think about re-signing Joey next year for 8 mill plus.


What do you guys think?
What are some possible solutions?

Anyone know how to get this link to actual show up here?

Click to read more...

 

[TaketheCannoli]

I've been kicking around the cap situation for awhile now and to me I see problems arising as soon as the end of this year with the need to re-sign Jenner, Karlsson & Murray as well as add 2 D men who may or may not be Connauton & Prout. I have put a place holder/guesstimate salary in for the 3 RFA's I'm about 100% sure we'll re-sign. By my calculations and estimations we will have between 3.5 & 5 million to sign the 2 D if my estimates for the 3 F's are in the ballpark. And if we can avoid a cap problem this year think about re-signing Joey next year for 8 mill plus.


What do you guys think?
What are some possible solutions?

Anyone know how to get this link to actual show up here?

gulp - Clarkson to LTIR, Foligno and Johansen for futures??

The real problem is the # of long term medium $$ contracts. Looks like cap hell unless the cap goes up more than projected. Columbus needs a really strong Loonie!

 

[major major]

Thanks for the gruntwork.

We definitely need more salary space to get that right D-man or two. It's kind of hard to acquire the right player when you have to ask the other club "Do you mind taking Tyutin or Clarkson back?" just to stay under the cap. No one will do that. So we have to make space where we can.

We can probably do Jenner for $3m, at least for a year or two. He's the exact kind of player we'd normally like to go long term with. That short deal doesn't seem right for Boone, but Jarmo's shot his load already with big forward contracts. I can't complain about Dubinsky/Foligno/Saad/Hartnell individually, but collectively it's a cluster****, not to mention Clarkson. That's my only issue with the Saad deal - good value in the micro sense but it tied up too many resources at forward and left us without any flexibility.

I love Hartnell. So. Much. But at this point it's hard to think of other ways out of our salary crunch, other than moving him. His value should be high at the trade deadlines. Tyutin should also go but will likely need serious salary retained.

 

[major major]

Columbus needs a really strong Loonie!

Don't count on it. Between the shale boom and a possible future carbon cap, the oil sands are increasingly uneconomical, and with that the Canadian dollar is going to remain relatively low for a long time to refocus the economy around manufacturing.

Luckily a lot of clubs are in a similar position with the cap. And Jackets ownership doesn't have pockets as deep as some of those clubs, so at some point a lower cap will be good for Columbus.

 

[EspenK]

Thanks for the gruntwork.

We definitely need more salary space to get that right D-man or two. It's kind of hard to acquire the right player when you have to ask the other club "Do you mind taking Tyutin or Clarkson back?" just to stay under the cap. No one will do that. So we have to make space where we can.

We can probably do Jenner for $3m, at least for a year or two. He's the exact kind of player we'd normally like to go long term with. That short deal doesn't seem right for Boone, but Jarmo's shot his load already with big forward contracts. I can't complain about Dubinsky/Foligno/Saad/Hartnell individually, but collectively it's a cluster****, not to mention Clarkson. That's my only issue with the Saad deal - good value in the micro sense but it tied up too many resources at forward and left us without any flexibility.

I love Hartnell. So. Much. But at this point it's hard to think of other ways out of our salary crunch, other than moving him. His value should be high at the trade deadlines. Tyutin should also go but will likely need serious salary retained.

I agree with all of this. I too think Hartell and Tyutin exiting are the way to go.

Do you think we can/would dump Tyutin at the deadline for a #2? I doubt he brings a 1.

Hartnell could/should bring a #1 at the deadline?

The only problem with losing both of them is it weakens the team in the short term (well maybe not Tyutin) but considering their age and $ seems like the best option to me.

 

[major major]

I agree with all of this. I too think Hartell and Tyutin exiting are the way to go.

Do you think we can/would dump Tyutin at the deadline for a #2? I doubt he brings a 1.

Hartnell could/should bring a #1 at the deadline?

The only problem with losing both of them is it weakens the team in the short term (well maybe not Tyutin) but considering their age and $ seems like the best option to me.

Even at the deadline it's going to be tough to move either of those two. The top teams will afford them for the rest of the year but not for the remaining years on their deals. Hartnell is enticing enough though that someone will go for it at the deadline and a late first should be in play. Tyutin I don't think will even fetch a 2nd rounder unless we retain 50%. Of course, GM's make surprising decisions sometimes, like Holmgren taking Umberger for Hartnell.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

It was the beginning of last season when I think most people didn't think we'd have this issue.



Might have to say goodbye to some very good things.

 

[We Want Ten]

It was the beginning of last season when I think most people didn't think we'd have this issue.



Might have to say goodbye to some very good things.

I'd be a VCash millionaire if I had a dollar for every "it's ok, we are not a cap team" I saw posted here.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

I'd be a VCash millionaire if I had a dollar for every "it's ok, we are not a cap team" I saw posted here.

Billionaire if you include the 'Clarkson picked up in expansion draft' remarks

I have a feeling Rychel will have to be included as a sweetener for a cap dump, not defensive help

 

[DJA]

Hartnell is as good as gone. I hope we can find a taker for Tyutin. Johansen's next contract worries me and I think it would be wise to explore a trade sooner rather than later. But I would still be fine if we hung on to him, but prepare for more uncomfortable cap days if we are saddled with a $9m contract with him for 7 years.

I would absolutely explore the market for Foligno. Problem is this start is destroying any value he has. Plus the contract is ugly as hell. We have decent prospects to entice a cap dump.

We absolutely need to hang on to relative bargain players like Atkinson, Karlsson, Jenner, Wennberg, etc.

My hopes for this offseason/trade deadline:

OUT
Hartnell
Foligno (not likely, but explore the market)
Bourque
Tyutin
Prout (waivers)
Johansen (only for a drop-dead, can't miss deal including a legit #1 D)
Boll (buyout)

IN
#1 D-man through trade or UFA
Depth 2nd/3rd line winger (slightly better than average) in UFA or trade

Jenner ($3 mil)-Johansen ($4 mil)-Saad ($6 mil)
Rychel ($1.2 mil) -Karlsson ($1.5 mil) -XXXX ($4 mil)
Calvert ($2.2 mil) -Dubi ($5.85 mil) -Atkinson ($3.5 mil)
Anderson ($700K) -Wennberg ($1.4 mil) - Bjorkstrand/Milano ($1.0 mil)
Campbell ($1.5 mil)/Clarkson ($5.25 mil)
Boll buyout: $850K

(FORWARDS - approx $42 mil)

XXXX ($6 mil) -Murray ($3 mil)
Johnson ($4.3 mil) -Savard ($3.5 mil)
Werenski ($1.5 mil) -Goloubef ($750K)
Connauton ($1.0 mil)
Prout ($1.0 mil - bury in minors)

DEFENSEMEN - approx $21 mil)

Bobrovsky ($7.5 mil)
McElhinney ($800K)

GOALIES - approx $8.3 mil)

TOTAL - $71.3 mil

So, in conclusion, need to make tough decisions on Foligno and Johansen, get a #1 D and hope some of our young guys can take a step.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Nobody is taking Foligno nor would the Jackets give up on him.

I don't think this is as big a deal as some here. I don't think getting a #1 dman is possible under our current payroll (not like they'd be available anyway.), but I really do think they think Murray is going to become that. So, they just need some depth. Bourque is gone after this year, Boll after next, and As DJ said Hartnell could go at any time as could Cam or Calvert.

Tyutin could go as well, but like Foligno, I doubt he will be taken.

Boone and Murrays contract is a concern, especially Boone. But I am not concerned about the future, and no way do I deal Johansen unless it's a stupid return.

 

[Jovavic]

The next contract should be pretty easy for Murray, a one year 2 million "show me" deal.

 

[punk_o_holic]

Hartnell is as good as gone. I hope we can find a taker for Tyutin. Johansen's next contract worries me and I think it would be wise to explore a trade sooner rather than later. But I would still be fine if we hung on to him, but prepare for more uncomfortable cap days if we are saddled with a $9m contract with him for 7 years.

I would absolutely explore the market for Foligno. Problem is this start is destroying any value he has. Plus the contract is ugly as hell. We have decent prospects to entice a cap dump.

We absolutely need to hang on to relative bargain players like Atkinson, Karlsson, Jenner, Wennberg, etc.

My hopes for this offseason/trade deadline:

OUT
Hartnell
Foligno (not likely, but explore the market)
Bourque
Tyutin
Prout (waivers)
Johansen (only for a drop-dead, can't miss deal including a legit #1 D)
Boll (buyout)

IN
#1 D-man through trade or UFA
Depth 2nd/3rd line winger (slightly better than average) in UFA or trade

Jenner ($3 mil)-Johansen ($4 mil)-Saad ($6 mil)
Rychel ($1.2 mil) -Karlsson ($1.5 mil) -XXXX ($4 mil)
Calvert ($2.2 mil) -Dubi ($5.85 mil) -Atkinson ($3.5 mil)
Anderson ($700K) -Wennberg ($1.4 mil) - Bjorkstrand/Milano ($1.0 mil)
Campbell ($1.5 mil)/Clarkson ($5.25 mil)
Boll buyout: $850K

(FORWARDS - approx $42 mil)

XXXX ($6 mil) -Murray ($3 mil)
Johnson ($4.3 mil) -Savard ($3.5 mil)
Werenski ($1.5 mil) -Goloubef ($750K)
Connauton ($1.0 mil)
Prout ($1.0 mil - bury in minors)

DEFENSEMEN - approx $21 mil)

Bobrovsky ($7.5 mil)
McElhinney ($800K)

GOALIES - approx $8.3 mil)

TOTAL - $71.3 mil

So, in conclusion, need to make tough decisions on Foligno and Johansen, get a #1 D and hope some of our young guys can take a step.

Paying Prout a million to play in the minors seems like a waste of money. Would rather sign a cheaper minor leaguer. They shouldn't send Prout a qualifying offer and allow him to become a unrestricted free agent.

 

[major major]

Hartnell is as good as gone. I hope we can find a taker for Tyutin. Johansen's next contract worries me and I think it would be wise to explore a trade sooner rather than later. But I would still be fine if we hung on to him, but prepare for more uncomfortable cap days if we are saddled with a $9m contract with him for 7 years.

I would absolutely explore the market for Foligno. Problem is this start is destroying any value he has. Plus the contract is ugly as hell. We have decent prospects to entice a cap dump.

We absolutely need to hang on to relative bargain players like Atkinson, Karlsson, Jenner, Wennberg, etc.

My hopes for this offseason/trade deadline:

OUT
Hartnell
Foligno (not likely, but explore the market)
Bourque
Tyutin
Prout (waivers)
Johansen (only for a drop-dead, can't miss deal including a legit #1 D)
Boll (buyout)

IN
#1 D-man through trade or UFA
Depth 2nd/3rd line winger (slightly better than average) in UFA or trade

Jenner ($3 mil)-Johansen ($4 mil)-Saad ($6 mil)
Rychel ($1.2 mil) -Karlsson ($1.5 mil) -XXXX ($4 mil)
Calvert ($2.2 mil) -Dubi ($5.85 mil) -Atkinson ($3.5 mil)
Anderson ($700K) -Wennberg ($1.4 mil) - Bjorkstrand/Milano ($1.0 mil)
Campbell ($1.5 mil)/Clarkson ($5.25 mil)
Boll buyout: $850K

(FORWARDS - approx $42 mil)

XXXX ($6 mil) -Murray ($3 mil)
Johnson ($4.3 mil) -Savard ($3.5 mil)
Werenski ($1.5 mil) -Goloubef ($750K)
Connauton ($1.0 mil)
Prout ($1.0 mil - bury in minors)

DEFENSEMEN - approx $21 mil)

Bobrovsky ($7.5 mil)
McElhinney ($800K)

GOALIES - approx $8.3 mil)

TOTAL - $71.3 mil

So, in conclusion, need to make tough decisions on Foligno and Johansen, get a #1 D and hope some of our young guys can take a step.

I'm not against seeing what the market is like for Foligno. But I don't know if it helps us much to ship him out and then go out and get a $4m winger, which saves us a measly $1.5m, which is uneccessary to fit under a $73m cap if you're already dumping Hartnell and Tyutin. At $4m you'll probably end up with a Drew Stafford type for that money, which will you give similar production to what we are currently getting from a slumping Foligno. Save $1.5m, lose the chance that Foligno returns to form. That's awful.

 

[major major]

Nobody is taking Foligno

If Foligno continues this slump for the rest of the year, then of course his value will drop big time. But he just scored 73 points last year. That makes him very tradeable right now. Some teams desperately need a player like him.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Hartnell/Atkinson/Calvert - I could see one or two of those being gone this time next year

 

[DJA]

I'm not against seeing what the market is like for Foligno. But I don't know if it helps us much to ship him out and then go out and get a $4m winger, which saves us a measly $1.5m, which is uneccessary to fit under a $73m cap if you're already dumping Hartnell and Tyutin. At $4m you'll probably end up with a Drew Stafford type for that money, which will you give similar production to what we are currently getting from a slumping Foligno. Save $1.5m, lose the chance that Foligno returns to form. That's awful.

Foligno will never score 73 points again in the NHL. I feel pretty comfortable saying that. That being said, it was more a "one or the other type scenario" - if we dump both Hartnell and Foligno, then we probably wouldn't trade Foligno. If we can only dump one or the other, then maybe we look at moving Nick.

Also, the $4 mil was on the high side, I think you can get a 40-point winger for 3 or 3.5.

 

[DJA]

Paying Prout a million to play in the minors seems like a waste of money. Would rather sign a cheaper minor leaguer. They shouldn't send Prout a qualifying offer and allow him to become a unrestricted free agent.

Forgot he was RFA after this season. No prob. Saves a million then.

 

[major major]

Foligno will never score 73 points again in the NHL. I feel pretty comfortable saying that. That being said, it was more a "one or the other type scenario" - if we dump both Hartnell and Foligno, then we probably wouldn't trade Foligno. If we can only dump one or the other, then maybe we look at moving Nick.

Also, the $4 mil was on the high side, I think you can get a 40-point winger for 3 or 3.5.

Yes but will Foligno score 30, 40, 50, 60? I don't think we know. We can guess 40 now but it's a fools gambit to base an analysis on an extrapolation of a quarter season.

And you can't even reliably get 40 pts out of a $3m or $4m ufa. Take a look at Vermette in Arizona. Or go ask Bruins fans how they feel about the Beleskey signing. I feel better about the chances of Foligno improving than the chances of improved play from either of those two ufa signings.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Great spreadsheet!! It's very helpful.

Only correction that I can make is for Johansen in 2017-18. He's arbitration eligible. I think it's safe to assume that he'll be on the books that year for $7m or more one way or another (arbitration or long term deal).

I can remember the protestations of many that the CBJ "weren't a cap team".

To really move off of the bubble, a top player will have to be shipped along with a bad contract. Among the forwards, Dubinsky, Jenner and Saad probably have the most trade value at this point. Among dmen, I'd think everybody would be on the table, including Murray.

Clarkson, Tyutin, Bob, and Foligno would probably all have to be considered "bad contracts" which would require parting with a value asset ("good contract", prospects, or picks) in order to move. Clarkson, of course, can't be moved nor can he be bought out for all intents and purposes.

While the narrative is that Hartnell would be hard to move, I'm not so sure about that. He's a $4.75 cap hit, but after next year's $5m cash payout, he's due only $3.75m on average over his last 2 years. He's still very effective and would probably be a deadline deal candidate for this season. If some team felt that he were the missing piece of a possible Cup run, then he's very moveable. He'll be effective next year most likely and if a team had to buy him out for his last season, it wouldn't be very painful if he helped them this season and next.

Front office incompetence is coming home to roost with respect to the cap. The absolutely unforgivable failure to insure Horton's contract has placed 7% of the cap in a completely non-performing asset. The failure to lock up Johansen at approximately $6 million will start impacting the cap after next season. Johansen's trade value would be immense if he were locked into four more years at what would have been fair market value when he held out. Starting in 2017-18, it's a $2 to $2.5 million per year mistake if he is signed to a long term deal. The additional $2 million per year over the past two seasons would not have harmed the CBJs cap positions.

The failure to sign Bob longer term right after his Vezina when he was an RFA probably amounts to a $1.5 million per year mistake as well. The childish need to flex CBA leverage with the elite RFAs (Bob and Joey) backfired badly. It ended up costing cap room when it was desperately needed and didn't use the room which was readily available at the time of each contract's signing. Nice strategy, JD and Jarmo!

All told, approximately $7-9 million of extra payroll could be open starting next season had the FO operated competently. Approximately 10-12% of the cap is now gone thanks to their egregious errors. Any trades will now be from a position of weakness rather than strength.

 

[WannabeFinn]

Bourque walks, trade Tyutin. Should free up ~$8m not counting any rise in cap space (if there is any). That should be enough money to cover the bridge contracts for Jenner and Murray. Karlsson I'm not so concerned about.. like the player as much as any other but if we truly believe in Wennberg then we've got no use for him as a top-9 center going forward.

We should try and keep Hartnell but if there is a good opportunity to offload his contract for good value then so be it. We need to hold onto Atkinson given his current production and "bargain" contract.

FORWARDS (42.275M)
Saad (6m)-Joey (4m)-Jenner (3m?)
Rychel (1.275m)-Wennberg (1.4m)-Foligno (5.5m)
Calvert (2.2m)-Dubinsky (5.85m)-Atkinson (3.5m)
Campbell (1.5m)-Karlsson (1.1m?)-Boll (1.7m)/Clarkson (5.25m)

DEFENSE (14.8M)
Johnson (4.35m)-Savard (4.25m)
Murray (2.5m?)-Werenski (1.5m?)
Connauton (800k?)-Goloubef (750k)
Falk (650k?)

GOALIES (8.225m)
Bobrovsky (7.425m)
McElhinney (800k)

CAP TOTAL: 65.3m, giving us roughly 6m in cap space. This is enough cap space to keep Hartnell around, but we'd be hard pressed to find the money for Joey and others without substantial increases in the cap ceiling. Alternatively, we'd have enough cap space to sign Murray/Jenner to long-term contracts rather than bridge deals, which would hopefully give us plenty of savings down the road.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

I am wondering how the Murray negotiations are going to go. The bridge seems standard from Jarmo, but if Murray was willing to take a long-term deal (for his security), would he be willing to leave money on the table

 

[NotWendell]

I really don't think there's much to worry about. We've got talented kids in every position in Cleveland. The veterans who aren't performing and are able to be moved won't be here.

 

[EspenK]

I really don't think there's much to worry about. We've got talented kids in every position in Cleveland. The veterans who aren't performing and are able to be moved won't be here.

Maybe. My concerns are:

the imbalance between F & D

what happens if Jenner wants Saad money? Don't think he will but if he scores 30 goals he might

If we can't trade Hartnell and/or Tyutin then we have 3.2 -4.7 mill to sign 2 D. Connauton is probably serviceable and maybe one of the kids is ready but that means the D isn't any better of paper than this year

the following year when Joey will need to be re-signed. We could be either over or right at depending on how the cap rises and what Joey signs for. I'm guessing it is somewhere around 9. If he goes arbitration then maybe 7 if he continues to improve his numbers this year and next. Of course that brings up another set of issues.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Jarmo has put us in a situation that few expected - that a healthy CBJ team (no excuses this season like last) has shown to be at best a team that is missing several key pieces and at worst has shown still has no clue how to win when games matter.
Most of us saw a lot of long-term (or mid term deals) but expected the team to be at least average (meaning fighting for a playoff spot) not fighting Edmonton for the top pick.

As others have mentioned we are not the only team out there in this situation (tough salary structure). But unfortunate thing is in the past we've been able to make some deals because we had room (Saad being the most recent).

We'll need to make smart deals as we get closer to the deadline. Bottom line no one will want our junk (Clarkson, etc). But we may have to give up valuable pieces (as other have mentioned Hartnell). Hopefully a lot of teams in contention will make some of our bad contracts tradeable (like a Jack Johnson).

But the front office (again for about the 8th time) will have hard decisions on who is the future of the franchise - do you invest in RyJo long term? Do you sign Jenner long-term or do a bridge?