The chase for the playoffs (standings, scoreboard watching, and, of course, sagacious commentary)

CBJWerenski8

Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
Jun 13, 2009
42,370
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Not to sound all "you kids get off my lawn" or anything, but tell your analytical numbers to shut up.

15-2-4. Analyze that.

The numbers said we were a better team than we showed when we near the bottom of the league in early December. The numbers are now saying we're getting carried by unsustainable (that word again for bus) goaltending. The numbers don't lie, but that doesn't mean we're going to fall off a cliff, it just means we need to improve our play in front of the goalie to maintain winning when the eventual decline of our goaltending (in some capacity, we're not carrying a sub 2 GAA the rest of the year) comes.
 

CalBuckeyeRob

Registered User
Feb 25, 2012
510
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The numbers can always be defied in smaller sample sizes, but they are looked at and relied on because they are historically relevant to how teams perform in the long term. For that I give the coach credit because he realizes that things like terrible puck possession and limited scoring chances might not decide every game, but it will decide a majority of the games so you need to improve those things if you want long term success.
 

Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
53,864
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40N 83W (approx)
I was actually thinking the exact opposite. I hate having your momentum and rhythm broken up when you're winning.

We had that long layoff after the Tampa series last year, and Boston pretty much slapped us around at the start of Game 1.
Yeah, but the underlying numbers were good during the Tampa series. They aren't right now.
 

EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
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Does Torts pay attention to underlying numbers or is he more of an eye test guy? I'd guess the latter but who knows?
 
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DarkandStormy

Registered User
Apr 29, 2014
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You're missing my point.

If the numbers said we were a better team when we were terrible, and they say that we're not that good when we're winning, maybe the numbers aren't what they're cracked up to be.

It's a long season.

Our odds of continuing to win decrease if we continue to get outshot/outchanced like we have the last 3-4 games. That's just reality.
 
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MoeBartoli

Checkers-to-Jackets
Jan 12, 2011
14,079
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Does Torts pay attention to underlying numbers or is he more of an eye test guy? I'd guess the latter but who knows?
In Alisons recent Athletic article, he referenced using some specific tracking developed by Brad Shaw that focuses a lot on entries among other things. I suspect Torts in many ways is an eye test guy, but he’s an astute coach and how he sees the game should generally align with many key analytics. (The eye of most fans - me among them - often filter game action thru a lens that doesn’t always track perfectly with the analytics.)
 

MoeBartoli

Checkers-to-Jackets
Jan 12, 2011
14,079
10,299
It's a long season.

Our odds of continuing to win decrease if we continue to get outshot/outchanced like we have the last 3-4 games. That's just reality.
I doubt if winning is sustainable if game after game we are out shot 2 to 1. But playing the defensive style that we’re playing, it wouldn’t surprise me if we were often outshot during a game. The Islanders provide a good illustration of that playing a not totally dissimilar forechecking style that relies on opportunistic goal scoring.
 

CBJWerenski8

Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
Jun 13, 2009
42,370
24,288
Does Torts pay attention to underlying numbers or is he more of an eye test guy? I'd guess the latter but who knows?

Both. There's an entire article on Torts' growing fondness of analytics.

When Shaw came to Columbus, the chart stayed in his desk, but this season, after one specific game, he wanted to see how the players rated out in terms of puck management. He charted the game on his puck touch sheet and then shared the results with Tortorella.

“Let’s talk about Brad Shaw because he is full of information,” Tortorella said. “He is one of the most intelligent coaches that I’ve ever met. I think that sheet is really good. It touches all three zones, some good stuff, some bad stuff.

“For me, I am a layman as far as all the numbers, I’m still trying to learn all about that stuff. When I looked at that sheet, I said ‘oh my God.’ When I saw how he tabulated it, how it came to a value, what it did … I wanted to see it as far as lines and pairs, also. That’s when I said, ‘I want to get this every game.’”

“Brad Shaw … I’ve learned a lot from him,” Tortorella said. “The numbers? I think they’re important … you have to mix with that with your gut and the eye test. ‘Shawsy’ has some really unique ways of doing things that are very interesting and I think help determine a lot of things within the game.

“(The puck touch sheet) is a really good sheet that determines individual stuff as far as puck touches in a game. In a world of an unbelievable amount of numbers that are out there, that’s a really good sheet.”

Inside the coaches office: How the Blue Jackets measure puck...

More in here (paywall)
 

Double-Shift Lasse

Just post better
Dec 22, 2004
33,540
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Exurban Cbus
It's a long season.

Our odds of continuing to win decrease if we continue to get outshot/outchanced like we have the last 3-4 games. That's just reality.

Very few were saying "it's a long season" when the numbers skew in the team's favor but it's losing. The argument is, often, at such times, that the numbers will more likely begin to dip to match the results.

That's just pessimism.
 
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Madifer

Registered User
Oct 2, 2018
1,659
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I enjoy the 2019-20 CBJ more and more and my optimism is growing by each game. Is this for real.. is a harsh punishment coming.

Are we really going to be there in April again and maybe even not as one of the underdogs.. :sarcasm:
 
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EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
15,630
4,192
I am totally surprised at where the Jackets stand at the All Star Break especially after their horrific start. To me the turnaround can be attributed to the increase in intensity that started when the regulars started dropping like flies and the vast improvement in goal by Korpi & Elvis.

Hopefully the break doesn't cool off the recent performance although it will be hard to keep up the winning percentage of the last 20 or so games. A quick off the top of my head calculation suggest they have been playing at about a 120 point pace during this stretch. I doubt they can maintain that but if they can play at a 1.2 pt per game pace the playoffs look reachable.

It will be an exciting stretch run (hopefully).
 
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Finner

Registered User
Dec 8, 2018
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After 51games we have 62points. Laat 31games and if the old marks are truth you get in the playoffs surround 96-98points. Soooo we need 36points, with quick look for incoming schedule we face "non playoff" teams x8, top 6teams x8 and rest 15games is critical against teams that are fighting for playoff spots. If we win all games against non playoff teams its 16points. Total 78points. Then the top6 teams, if we win 2/8 its 4points. Total 82points. So last 15games we need to win 8 to get 98points and maybe playoff spot. Ofcourse there is ot/so so point here and point here are differential for this mathematic thing. Anyway its going to be unbealivible ride and we should enjoy everymoment. Cant wait!
 
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CBJWerenski8

Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
Jun 13, 2009
42,370
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Someone posted the February schedule somewhere else and the month is very winnable for us. Keep the train rolling
 
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DarkandStormy

Registered User
Apr 29, 2014
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Someone posted the February schedule somewhere else and the month is very winnable for us. Keep the train rolling

After Carolina, it was something like 8 out of 12 opponents not in the playoffs, followed up with a back-to-back against Philly. February is a compressed month (15 games in 28 days) but the competition is relatively less difficult. The back end is brutal, though.
 
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Madifer

Registered User
Oct 2, 2018
1,659
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Lets discard NYR, NJD, BUF, MYL, OTT, DET. That leaves 10 teams that are in the running.

Among these 10 teams only BOS, TBL, WSH and PIT are almost certainly going to make it.

That leaves 6 teams which compete for 4 spots. Thats quite fair, I like our hmm, I mean CBJ's chances.

February and March are going to be awesome imo. :sarcasm:
 

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