Agent Zub
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- Jan 2, 2015
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The case of Alex Debrinecat; and why are NHL GMs so stupid?
- Thread starter Agent Zub
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Mrb1p
PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
I'll admit that I had Rocco Grimaldi in my top 15 for 2011. Also lots of examples of smaller skill guys who didn't pan out.
izzy
go
HappySabresFan
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- Jul 1, 2018
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I think some of those are the product of GMs going with positional needs over the best player available, leading to some top 20ish guys slipping into the late 1st mid 2nd range
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
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It’s weird the league has become pretty progressive with drafting small defenseman high now, but still undervalue the small forwards.
Let's extend that list a little bit: Hishon, Grimaldi, Jurco, Hawryluk, Merkley, Mascherin, all steals on draft day! For every one that panned out, there's 3+ that didn't.
Debrincat is 5'7" for God's sake. He also benefitted from playing with elite OHL talent on that Otters team (Strome, Raddysh, etc.). He never had elite speed and was seen as more of a finisher on a team with a ton of distributors. There were some legitimate concerns on draft day...
Mrb1p
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Agent Zub
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I'm not saying small skilled players are 100 percent guarenteed to pan out.
What I'm saying is that if a junior player can't even dominate his junior league, the chances that he becomes a productive NHLer are extremely low. No matter how gritty or big they are.
Yet GMs continuously pick these players over others who actually dominated that same league.
Mrb1p
PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
I can also extend on the other side, Gaudreau, Panarin, Marchessault, Trocheck, Aho, Gallagher, Hudon, Lekhonen, Byron, Keller, Gost, Zucker, goure, Skinner, Arvidsson, Schwartz, Atkinson, Zucc, Krug, Johnson, Etc.
We are all geniuses with our 20-20 hindsight.
Why don't you tell us the mistakes they made this year now?
snipes
How cold? I’m ice cold.
- Dec 28, 2015
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More midgets fail than succeed.
Having said that the league is so soft now that the trend towards smaller more skilled players will continue then it will swing back the other way eventually.
Having said that the league is so soft now that the trend towards smaller more skilled players will continue then it will swing back the other way eventually.
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Everyone's great at drafting after it happens...I'm not saying that someone couldn't call DeBrincat...but I know I wasn't that interested in him - not because of size, but I didn't think he'd be able to make enough room for himself at the pro level...
Go look at petan. Looks to be an ahl lifer. It's a crapshoot
MardyBum
Registered User
DeBrincat isn't your typical "small" forward. The height difference between McDavid and DeBrincat is greater than the height difference between McDavid and Hedman. DeBrincat is so short that he's actually below the Canadian National Women's team's average height.
This is the issue I always found with him. Should be noted, that the key thing that changes him from a lot of smaller guys with average skating is that his game is built around sniping, therefore an elite shot and finding the right places to be. It is the same thing that helps a guy like Tolvanen. The real issue you run into with smaller guys who aren't elite skaters who play a playmaking game, they have no real way to create time on the puck for that extra second or two required to open up a passing lane that can result in goals or high danger chances. High-Iq guys can constantly make the right passes, but if they can't buy those few seconds before being pushed off the puck their game is just going to look ultra safe and responsible, but not dangerous. While not traditionally small, that's been an issue with someone like Sam Reinhart compared to Draisaitl who both entered the league as average to below average skaters. Draisaitl simply can rely on strength on the puck to buy that extra second or two significantly more often.
Keep in mind, people also argued strongly for Mascherin that draft. Who is a smaller sub-par skater who plays a sniping game, who went in the 4th round in a re-draft.
My theory has been this: the greater the deviation from average ht/wt, the greater the scoring deviation needs to be; both ways on both height and weight.
My rule of thumb is if avg draftee is 183cm/83kg, then I’d assign a value of 100. The valuation is inverted and the farther away on the height deviation the axis is flatter compared to the height; Smaller players need to weigh more the farther they get out, while taller players can get away with slightly less.
deBrincat showed the OTT production, but when I saw him at TC for the 1st time for Chicago he was invisible.
He figured it out.
Some guys don’t.
My rule of thumb is if avg draftee is 183cm/83kg, then I’d assign a value of 100. The valuation is inverted and the farther away on the height deviation the axis is flatter compared to the height; Smaller players need to weigh more the farther they get out, while taller players can get away with slightly less.
deBrincat showed the OTT production, but when I saw him at TC for the 1st time for Chicago he was invisible.
He figured it out.
Some guys don’t.
Agent Zub
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My issue is that GMs draft slow unskilled guys who have size and grit hoping they develop NHL level hockey IQ and skill.
What they should be doing is drafting high skill high iq players who can develop the other parts of their game.
You can get stronger or work on your skating or defence. It's a lot harder to teach hockey iq and innate offensive creativity.
What they should be doing is drafting high skill high iq players who can develop the other parts of their game.
You can get stronger or work on your skating or defence. It's a lot harder to teach hockey iq and innate offensive creativity.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
People are mentioning that more small players fail than succeed, and while that is true; do they not realize that as a whole, far more players fail than succeed? And that the correlation between Junior league scoring rate and NHL make/bust rate and scoring rate (especially when it comes to outliers like DeBrincat with ridiculous scoring rates) is much, much higher than the correlation between size and NHL make/bust rate and scoring rate?
Yes, there are plenty of small players who scored a lot in juniors and busted. But I would be willing to bet there are far more busts for every successful Zdeno Chara than there are for every successful Alex DeBrincat.
Yes, there are plenty of small players who scored a lot in juniors and busted. But I would be willing to bet there are far more busts for every successful Zdeno Chara than there are for every successful Alex DeBrincat.
Freaky Styley
Registered User
Not to knock Debrincat, or any other small player, but if I was a GM I would use 1st rounders on guys who I think would help me win a Stanley Cup. Small guys are less effective in the playoffs, though there are exceptions to the rule like Ardvisson and T. Johnson. It's not bad to have a few of those guys sprinkled around your roster, but having too many isn't wise, which is why these guys always tend to fall.
Yeah Patrick Kane's been pretty useless for winning the Stanley Cup.
