The case of Alex Debrinecat; and why are NHL GMs so stupid?

[BruinsBtn]

I'll admit that I had Rocco Grimaldi in my top 15 for 2011. Also lots of examples of smaller skill guys who didn't pan out.

Exactly. They could have gone with size instead and taken Boone Jenner.
Another faller that day was Shane Prince, a small, skilled forward. Six-foot-five project Adam Lowry went a few picks later and was the right pick.

In 2012, Josh Anderson (12 goals) and Seth Griffith (45 goals) were on the same team. I think Columbus choose correctly.

What people generally miss is that small, skilled players are pretty easy to pick up.

 

[AmericanDream]

Cool, but the list of 100 point, smaller CHL forwards who never sniffed the NHL is far longer than those small guys who made it.

stop using points...give me smaller players hitting over 50 goals in the pre draft and draft season in the OHL/CHL???? he is a sniper, comparing him to other guys who couldn't hold his jock strap when it came to scoring goals makes no sense at all.

 

[seafoam]

DeBrincat should have been a late first round pick.

He's a bit unique when it comes to smaller players. He has a fantastic shot and high hockey IQ which allows him to seemingly always be in the right position to score. He's also tough for his size, not afraid to mix it up and get into the areas around the net. Very rarely do you ever see him get laid out by a big hit though.

I get the reluctance to go after small guys because they can bust and then they don't really fit a bottom 6 grinding type roll but DeBrincat was a unique case and some of the GMs that passed on him are probably regretting it now.

I feel like every year there are more guys who could be late first round picks than there are late first round picks.

Him going off the board at 39th overall still feels like “late first round territory” to me because not every team’s draft board looks the same. I bet Chicago had him as a late first rounder on their board as well as a few other teams who would have picked him in the middle and late parts of the second round.

 

[Stand Witness]

Debrincat would have been a 5-7th round pick a couple years ago, maybe even undrafted way back in the day.

39th overall for an extremely high skilled player but also insanely small. Honestly, it doesn't seem to be that far off of where he should have gone. It just sucks from basically every fanbases POV because we all 'passed' on Debrincat at some point.

In most drafts 20-40 seems to be a pretty similar talent player so if you have that one guy the team fell in love with then I understand why they do it.

Fortunately, I am confident in my teams drafting strategy going forward.

 

[Stand Witness]

Cool, but the list of 100 point, smaller CHL forwards who never sniffed the NHL is far longer than those small guys who made it.

Probably not much off of the average 100 pt player who didn't sniff the NHL either. And I wouldn't look at historical data past a certain point for a stat like that. Corey Locke only got 9 games in the NHL. If he was drafted today, his chances would have been much greater (regardless if he still busts or not).

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Teams saw him as a product of McDavid. Plus with how small he is. But he was originally on the 2nd PP unit for Erie. And let's not forget that he wasn't even drafted in the OHL. He signed as a free agent.

 

[Frk It]

Weird that we are focusing on DeBrincat so much.

Brayden Point was drafted much later, wasn't quite as small, and looks like he will be a better player. That seems like a bigger gaffe to me.

I'm really curious to see what happens with Aleksi Heponiemi. He has been crazy productive in Juniors. I want to see if he will make teams look bad for passing on him as well. Another guy I thought was really undervalued because of size was Antoine Morand. I would have taken him much higher than where he was picked.

 

[TheDoorDoctor]

Weird that we are focusing on DeBrincat so much.

Brayden Point was drafted much later, wasn't quite as small, and looks like he will be a better player. That seems like a bigger gaffe to me.

I'm really curious to see what happens with Aleksi Heponiemi. He has been crazy productive in Juniors. I want to see if he will make teams look bad for passing on him as well. Another guy I thought was really undervalued because of size was Antoine Morand. I would have taken him much higher than where he was picked.

Much of the dialogue could switch between debrincat and pointe.

Im not particularly sure about pointe but debrincat was seen as a great player going to the draft... yet his fall was unsurprising since a lot of ppl know GM's stay away from small players, player continues his great play, fan mad about bias against size, and here we are...

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

I'd also add, yes in retrospect it looks stupid to ignore, but there was a bit of a vibe that he was carried in his D-1 by being with McDavid, and then in his draft and draft +1 benefitting from playing with Dylan Strome. In the NHL, he's found successes playing with Patrick Kane. Now, there is also something to be said though, about being a smart enough player to keep up with those guys (especially Kane and McDavid), and fitting in seamlessly. It doesn't seem to be like Gagner who really benefitted from Kane his one year in the OHL and never really flashed elite offensive ability for a sustained period of time.

DeBrincat didn't really play with Kane.
He played a lot with Hartman and Sharp on the 3rd line and then got moved to Toews' line later in the year.

 

[93LEAFS]

DeBrincat didn't really play with Kane.
He played a lot with Hartman and Sharp on the 3rd line and then got moved to Toews' line later in the year.

For some reason I thought he was the youngster who benefitted from Panarin leaving (with Saad going to Toews line), but it was Schmaltz.

 

[Breakers]

You have a player this year who gets compared to Debrincat constantly in Cole Caufield.

But the same questions are going to arise just like Debrincat because Debrincat played with Strome and McDavid so people wondered how much was really him.

People will say how much is cole coalfield doing playing with Jack Hughes.

 

[Dumpster Flyers]

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

The draft is a crap shoot. News at 11:00.

 

[Bank Shot]

Probably not much off of the average 100 pt player who didn't sniff the NHL either. And I wouldn't look at historical data past a certain point for a stat like that. Corey Locke only got 9 games in the NHL. If he was drafted today, his chances would have been much greater (regardless if he still busts or not).

I would be willing to bet there is a big divergence there. Lots of small guys do well at every level up to and including the AHL but just can't have the same impact in the NHL.

Look at a guy like Gerbe. He put up ridiculous numbers in college. He could never really cut it in an NHL top six though.

There aren't that many guys that have put up 60+ points in a college season. When I look through IHDB it appears that every guy over 6 feet had an NHL career and a fair number of the guys 5'9" or under didn't.

 

[I am not exposed]

Let's extend that list a little bit: Hishon, Grimaldi, Jurco, Hawryluk, Merkley, Mascherin, all steals on draft day! For every one that panned out, there's 3+ that didn't.

Debrincat is 5'7" for God's sake. He also benefitted from playing with elite OHL talent on that Otters team (Strome, Raddysh, etc.). He never had elite speed and was seen as more of a finisher on a team with a ton of distributors. There were some legitimate concerns on draft day...

Those 3 all drafted by Florida. Damn

 

[Flames Fanatic]

I liked Debrincat a lot (and was on the local homer bias train for Pointe as well) but realistically he didn't fall that far from a late first.

Flames seem to be all in on the small forwards train in late rounds lately since Gaudreau. Mangiapane had a heck of a shortened season this year, and Phillips starting in the AHL this year, so we'll see how it goes in time.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

DeBrincat, Kane combine 4 goals in 9-7 win in the CPHL league win

(this was Kane's first game, DeBrincat's been playing in the CPHL this entire summer,
the game was a tune up game for Patrick Kane&Connor Murphy who will participate
in the stars and stripes showdown game, honoring the late executive Jim Johanson ,
DeBrincat will also participate )

 

[Frank Drebin]

We are all geniuses with our 20-20 hindsight.

Why don't you tell us the mistakes they made this year now?

This. I need to know, who is a bust and who is a steal. Who will score 30 goals in a season before their 21st birthday.

First and second rounds only please, no need to get crazy.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The 2016 draft is looking pretty deep imo. Debrincat is a steal but lots of good prospects were drafted slightly ahead or shortly after. Those small skill guys are good gambles but we’ll se how DeCat progresses, seen a lot of these guys make a big splash and fade as teams figure them out.

 

[Bank Shot]

Its not. The number of bust is proportional to the number of players. Theres more average height players than small or big in any league, theres more average height player in the NHL. Its not magic, its just probabilities.

And its less probable for small players to make it because they get weeded out at every level.

That's why average height in the NHL is 6'1" and not 5'10" like the general population.

 

[Fantomas]

2 straight 50 goal 100 point seasons before being drafted. Yet still fell out of the first. Ends up being 2nd in Hawks scoring in his 19 year old season. Almost scores 30 in his rookie season.

Kucherov, Johnson, Point, Tolvanen... Countless other examples.

Why are GMS so stupid?

They think in terms of organizational needs too much. Needs in terms of position and needs in terms of character. Selecting the right personality to fit an organizational culture's brand is paramount to many GMs.

End up overlooking a lot of skill in the process.

Keep in mind also that many GMs do not get to see the fruits of their labor. By the time the prospect they draft realizes his potential they are off to another job. So there is less incentive to make draft picks actually work in practice and more incentive to rely on picks as a way of pleasing some bureaucrat who is pressuring you to fill an area of need.

It's like the time the Canadiens decided against drafting Mike Bossy. He went against their brand and dogma, and was deemed too soft.

 

[Pip]

More midgets fail than succeed.

Having said that the league is so soft now that the trend towards smaller more skilled players will continue then it will swing back the other way eventually.

Most drafted players fail so that’s a pretty poor way to judge things.

 

[Rick C137]

Kind of early to make that argument when nobody knows what Tufte will be in the NHL yet. Dallas didn't draft him expecting him to be in their lineup in 2 years. Debrincat got a lot of opportunity last season in Chicago with injuries and being out of the playoff picture that he wouldn't have got had those things not been a factor. We shall see if that's the case this season as well.

Bolded is not even remotely close to being true. DeBrincat diddnt luck into any opportunity because of injury. He’s been in the lineup since day one and played all 82 games so I really don’t know where you are pulling that out of. If anything hawks fans have been upset with the lack of opportunity that Q gives him. He’s always been one of the lower ice time forwards playing in the bottom 6... and he still was able to lead the Blackhawks in goals as he was as he was still finishing up his freaking high school diploma. Please do explain what opportunity he was gifted. I’m curious to hear the explanation there.

It’s cool if you want to defend your teams guy but you don’t have to make things us about DeBrincat to try and drop him to the same level. DeBrincats game is what got him his opportunity and nothing else.

 

[CallMeShaft]

If anything, DeBrincat was unlucky last year.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I can also extend on the other side, Gaudreau, Panarin, Marchessault, Trocheck, Aho, Gallagher, Hudon, Lekhonen, Byron, Keller, Gost, Zucker, goure, Skinner, Arvidsson, Schwartz, Atkinson, Zucc, Krug, Johnson, Etc.

Holy oversimplicaton and false equivalence batman. A lot of these guys being later round picks or undrafted had nothing to do with how tall they were/are.

The problem with size is that when a small(er) player might fall a bit in draft stock, they only point back to size when every case is diferent and it's a multitude of factors that are ignored. It's all about how you project. If you are a smaller guy like DeBrincat who isn't very fast or shifty and played with elite players like Strome and McDavid and Raddysh, yeah there's some concerns that really don't even have much to do with how tall you are. Understandable concerns.