The case of Alex Debrinecat; and why are NHL GMs so stupid?

[King'sPawn]

I would say it's a combination of his game translating to the NHL while also having concerns if he was a product of McDavid and Strome.

It worked out well for the Blackhawks, but it's a defensible opinion considering many who do appear to benefit from playing with talented players.

 

[Sticks and Pucks]

Not every team is looking to take a risk on a small skilled guy at the end of the first round. Some GMs are happy getting a safe third liner or a safe bottom pairing defenceman. At least those guys are more likely to make it in the role they were drafted to do instead of the smaller skilled guys probably having just a 10% chance of reaching their potential.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I would say it's a combination of his game translating to the NHL while also having concerns if he was a product of McDavid and Strome.

It worked out well for the Blackhawks, but it's a defensible opinion considering many who do appear to benefit from playing with talented players.

This right here, beat me to it. People are getting WAY to caught up in just his size.

 

[Frk It]

Couple important things to consider:

--It's easy to be open to risks when your job doesn't depend on it.. things are much different for GM's and scouts in that regard.
--NHL coaches are still very conservative. They are not very open to playing undersized offensive players, typically speaking... so even if you draft a talented guy, not all coaches will embrace them. Even a guy like Marchessault who experienced success was not embraced by Florida.
--It's very difficult to predict the gains a player will make in strength/skating. Brayden Point made huge gains in his skating. If that doesn't happen to that extent, that pick could have been a waste.

I do generally agree small forwards are still undervalued pretty consistently. But when you add some context, it helps understand why a little bit more.

 

[UNITEDSTATESOFHOCKEY]

2 straight 50 goal 100 point seasons before being drafted. Yet still fell out of the first. Ends up being 2nd in Hawks scoring in his 19 year old season. Almost scores 30 in his rookie season.

Kucherov, Johnson, Point, Tolvanen... Countless other examples.

Why are GMS so stupid?

While I think the book is still out on weather Debrinecat should have been taken sooner, I think much of the reason why players like him get overlooked early in drafts is much of these GM's are Dir. of Scouting have been in the business a long time and many of them still believe a player needs to 6'2" to be a 1st round draft pick (few Exceptions aside). Another reason is the NHL Draft is still very much a futures draft. So much projection is involved, Rarely are you getting the same playing in your NHL lineup that they were in Junior or College. Yes there are some very stupid people in very high positions in the hockey world but you get that in almost every area of sports and business!

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Dallas drafted at 26 that year I wanted us to take the risk on him. I always saw him as a player that would have success at the next level. He was a great trigger man in the OHL, but also was able to create offensive chances by himself. He was underrated due to playing with McDavid and Stome, but ever other forward on the team had the same opportunity and none of them had close to the same success that DeBrincat.

 

[seafoam]

It might just be me, but I really don’t feel like 39th overall was that late to take him.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Boychuk
Tedenby
Schroeder
Hishon
Shinkaruk
Petan
C.Thomas
Grimaldi

I'm generally in favour of drafting based on hockey sense and skill, but let's not pretend that diminutive scoring forwards aren't a risk because DeBrincat has transitioned to the NHL better than anyone thought he would. These guys can end up top 6 forwards or they can end up completely busting.

 

[Mrb1p]

Boychuk
Tedenby
Schroeder
Hishon
Shinkaruk
Petan
C.Thomas
Grimaldi

I'm generally in favour of drafting based on hockey sense and skill, but let's not pretend that diminutive scoring forwards aren't a risk because DeBrincat has transitioned to the NHL better than anyone thought he would. These guys can end up top 6 forwards or they can end up completely busting.

Thats a fallacy because most guys will not make it. Pretty sure that if you looked at the data for under 5'11 and over 5'11, theres no actual difference in likeliness to bust.

 

[Bank Shot]

Thats a fallacy because most guys will not make it. Pretty sure that if you looked at the data for under 5'11 and over 5'11, theres no actual difference in likeliness to bust.

There are way more guys under 5'11" that score big points in junior that never get drafted and never amount to anything so that's kind of a skewed way of looking at things.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I'll admit that I had Rocco Grimaldi in my top 15 for 2011. Also lots of examples of smaller skill guys who didn't pan out.

This

For every 1 small who does good you have 20 who do nothing

My question to the OP is where is his post prior to the draft saying the player was going to be good

 

[Tryamkin]

Most people were tooting the “product of McDavid” horn and the “too small to make an impact” horn. Those two horns combined formed on big “SLEPT ON” horn

 

[wasup]

Dallas drafted at 26 that year I wanted us to take the risk on him. I always saw him as a player that would have success at the next level. He was a great trigger man in the OHL, but also was able to create offensive chances by himself. He was underrated due to playing with McDavid and Stome, but ever other forward on the team had the same opportunity and none of them had close to the same success that DeBrincat.

And you guys took the opposite of Debrincat , Tufte . You should have taken Debrincat

 

[AmericanDream]

those of us who followed him for years saw things far different on here and apparently reality as well. Cat has more than just one skill, his shot. he is cerebral, a smart player putting himself in the right situations all game long. Brett Hull did the same thing. yes Hull had a cannon of a shot, but he was smart as hell and laid back in the weeds striking when the time was right. Alex is similar to that and has been for a few years. Also, the kid had grit. He wouldn't back down to anyone. Even taking on 6'6 McCarron. The reason why he went as low as he did was lazy scouting and GMs afraid to actually value skill over size. anyone that watched this kid more than a few times clearly saw the brains he had, the grit he possessed, and the elite shot he has which is one of the best in the league.
and LOL to the "other" smurfs being compared as if any of them scored half the goals in junior as this kid did...he was elite in junior and should have went much higher than he did, now proving it.

the kid played barely 14 minutes a night with a coach who had no clue how to utilize him properly going stretches of not seeing power play time as well...he still almost hit 30 goals! keep doubting him, I openly welcome it, all he has done and will continue to do is show all that focusing on the 5'7 are focusing on the wrong thing.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Let's extend that list a little bit: Hishon, Grimaldi, Jurco, Hawryluk, Merkley, Mascherin, all steals on draft day! For every one that panned out, there's 3+ that didn't.

Debrincat is 5'7" for God's sake. He also benefitted from playing with elite OHL talent on that Otters team (Strome, Raddysh, etc.). He never had elite speed and was seen as more of a finisher on a team with a ton of distributors. There were some legitimate concerns on draft day...

This is a joke right? Because if not, i could post about... 1H long DeBrincat highlight video just from his entire OHL career,
its only a myth that he is more of a finisher BTW. DeBrincat is a playmaker for most who just happens to have a sniper pedigree
and what comes to his speed? well, never had any issues in that department, never understood where those rumors started,
everyone can see how well he has always skated, it sucks that today if you are not as good as skater as McJesus, you are slow pokes).

 

[Artorius Horus T]

This is the issue I always found with him. Should be noted, that the key thing that changes him from a lot of smaller guys with average skating is that his game is built around sniping, therefore an elite shot and finding the right places to be. It is the same thing that helps a guy like Tolvanen. The real issue you run into with smaller guys who aren't elite skaters who play a playmaking game, they have no real way to create time on the puck for that extra second or two required to open up a passing lane that can result in goals or high danger chances. High-Iq guys can constantly make the right passes, but if they can't buy those few seconds before being pushed off the puck their game is just going to look ultra safe and responsible, but not dangerous. While not traditionally small, that's been an issue with someone like Sam Reinhart compared to Draisaitl who both entered the league as average to below average skaters. Draisaitl simply can rely on strength on the puck to buy that extra second or two significantly more often.

Keep in mind, people also argued strongly for Mascherin that draft. Who is a smaller sub-par skater who plays a sniping game, who went in the 4th round in a re-draft.

Average skating + DeBrincat = not true

I do not understand where does this come from
Have you all not seen him skate? in the OHL or in the NHL?
sure he is not at McDavid level but who is? but Alex is far better skater than most NHL:ers
not to mention most smaller forwards, he just doesn't use his speed very often, because its
not part of his game, he plays with his brains, not with his skates, he uses his speed only
when its necessary.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Nice player but wouldn't want him in the top 6 of my team.

Want to tell what is your team?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I can also extend on the other side, Gaudreau, Panarin, Marchessault, Trocheck, Aho, Gallagher, Hudon, Lekhonen, Byron, Keller, Gost, Zucker, goure, Skinner, Arvidsson, Schwartz, Atkinson, Zucc, Krug, Johnson, Etc.

Cool, but the list of 100 point, smaller CHL forwards who never sniffed the NHL is far longer than those small guys who made it.

 

[Mrb1p]

Cool, but the list of 100 point, smaller CHL forwards who never sniffed the NHL is far longer than those small guys who made it.

That is true for any size.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

That is true for any size.

I mean you'll see lots of guys who scored a bunch in Junior and never even got drafted, and its usually due to their size.

A big guy who scores a lot might turn out to be a bust but he'll definitely be drafted.

 

[Bank Shot]

That is true for any size.

But its more true for small guys.

 

[Mrb1p]

But its more true for small guys.

Its not. The number of bust is proportional to the number of players. Theres more average height players than small or big in any league, theres more average height player in the NHL. Its not magic, its just probabilities.

 

[The Kessel Run]

But how many such players didn't make it? Adam Brooks, Mitch Holmberg ... The list is sooooo long.

Isn't Adam Brooks 20 or 21? Not that he'll necessarily "make it", but let's give him more than 1 year in the A to figure it out.

 

[EON]

DeBrincat should have been a late first round pick.

He's a bit unique when it comes to smaller players. He has a fantastic shot and high hockey IQ which allows him to seemingly always be in the right position to score. He's also tough for his size, not afraid to mix it up and get into the areas around the net. Very rarely do you ever see him get laid out by a big hit though.

I get the reluctance to go after small guys because they can bust and then they don't really fit a bottom 6 grinding type roll but DeBrincat was a unique case and some of the GMs that passed on him are probably regretting it now.

 

[UNITEDSTATESOFHOCKEY]

And you guys took the opposite of Debrincat , Tufte . You should have taken Debrincat

Kind of early to make that argument when nobody knows what Tufte will be in the NHL yet. Dallas didn't draft him expecting him to be in their lineup in 2 years. Debrincat got a lot of opportunity last season in Chicago with injuries and being out of the playoff picture that he wouldn't have got had those things not been a factor. We shall see if that's the case this season as well.