The Cake Is A Lie. The Tank Is Real.

[Melvin]

Canucks have a 46.81 CF%, to put that into context since 2015-16 only 4 teams have finished with a CF below that. Colorado and Arizona in 2015-16, Arizona in 2016-17, New York Rangers in 2017-2018.

Now what's really interesting is that currently, there are 6 teams that are WORSE than the Canucks in CF%. This season is bizarre.

Well, not necessarily. You would need to look at how many teams had a sub-47 CF% at the half-way point of the season.

EDIT: Oh, you can do this with Natural StatTrick.

Through December 23, 2017, 5 teams had a sub-47 CF last year, and we were not one of them:

New Jersey 46.95
Arizona 46.61
Anaheim 46.34
Rangers 46.31
Minnesota 46.03

New Jersey ended up 48.59, Arizona 48.10 and Anaheim 48.57. Minnesota improved to 47.19 and only the Rangers dropped to 45.92 after they blatantly intentionally tanked their season.

This shows me that there is some kind of regression towards the mean at play here, and in any case you can't conclude that this season is an outlier.

 

[WTG]

Well, not necessarily. You would need to look at how many teams had a sub-47 CF% at the half-way point of the season.

EDIT: Oh, you can do this with Natural StatTrick.

Through December 23, 2017, 5 teams had a sub-47 CF last year, and we were not one of them:

New Jersey 46.95
Arizona 46.61
Anaheim 46.34
Rangers 46.31
Minnesota 46.03

New Jersey ended up 48.59, Arizona 48.10 and Anaheim 48.57. Minnesota improved to 47.19 and only the Rangers dropped to 45.92 after they blatantly intentionally tanked their season.

This shows me that there is some kind of regression towards the mean at play here, and in any case you can't conclude that this season is an outlier.

Huh, interesting. I guess because there is a smaller sample size the smaller the odd extremely bad corsi games stand out more and skew the results? In any case, I'm not particularly worried that the occasional winning streak is going to prevent the team from finishing at the bottom.

 

[ihaveyuidonttouchme]

hmmm cans won

 

[Melvin]

Huh, interesting. I guess because there is a smaller sample size the smaller the odd extremely bad corsi games stand out more and skew the results? In any case, I'm not particularly worried that the occasional winning streak is going to prevent the team from finishing at the bottom.

Hmmm.

I wanted to test the idea that mid-season Team CF% was more predictive of the final standings than actual PTS%.

My first thought was to just plot each team's rank in CF% against their final rank in Points. Here is the last two seasons:

I have to say, not very convincing. It looks like just a random mess and it's hard to really see any correlation between Dec. 31 CF% and final standings.

As a comparison, here is a plot of each team's rank in PTS% at Dec. 31 against their final ranking.

....This looks much more correlated to me.

Hardly the final word on the matter but my preliminary look is not too promising, in terms of showing that CF% does a better job of predicting the final standings at this point of the season than simple PTS%.

Does anyone have another suggestion for an approach to looking at this?

I am a big fan of analytics but we have to be careful about jumping to conclusions about assuming the predictive power of our favourite stats before we've tested them.

 

[Jack Burton]

@ErrantShepherd

 

[ErrantShepherd]

@ErrantShepherd

As a former Christmas Santa, I find this especially relatable.

 

[DFAC]

Canucks have a 46.81 CF%, to put that into context since 2015-16 only 4 teams have finished with a CF below that. Colorado and Arizona in 2015-16, Arizona in 2016-17, New York Rangers in 2017-2018.

Now what's really interesting is that currently, there are 6 teams that are WORSE than the Canucks in CF%. This season is bizarre.

There’s just so many bad teams this year I don’t see the Canucks finishing bottom 3. LA and Chicago are absolute brutal.

 

[Hit the post]

There’s just so many bad teams this year I don’t see the Canucks finishing bottom 3. LA and Chicago are absolute brutal.

It takes a certain level of skill to be THAT bad. That ain't us.

 

[Jack Burton]

Who's up for a 0-6 road trip?

 

[mathonwy]

Lets tank this bitch up.

 

[dwarf]

Merry Christmas Tankers. Hope we lose every game, and lose some more in the new year. Actually sell some hockey players for draft picks, who are not part of the future of this club, at the trade deadline. And for once in our history draft first over all.

Been dreaming of a cup Christmas all my life. Maybe if we draft some good players, that might happen!!!

Best of the season all.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

 

[valkynax]

it's kinda like the King Tiger.

gotta take it back to the drawing board.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Well Koskinen gave them the game tonight. Shitty. The Canucks played poorly and should lose to Calgary on Saturday.

 

[PG Canuck]

Pettersson - goal, assist
Boeser - goal
Goldobin - assist, assist
Horvat - assist


Once again, the squad leading the charge

 

[PuckMunchkin]

@ErrantShepherd

I love you.

 

[Cancuks]

Big 0 points up for grabs tonight. I sense a 5 game losing streak ahead.

 

[Jack Burton]

 

[Melvin]

I think I’ve missed the last ten games now. I have to come to terms with the fact that I don’t care anymore. At all. One way or the other.

I like doing hockey research and discussing strategy and whatnot with you fine folks but I officially relinquish my fandom. I no longer care if we win or lose and do not care if we win in the future.

I don’t know why or when or how it happened,but I’ve been ignoring the fact that it has and my complete apathy for tonight’s game makes it obvious.

Called myself a Canuck fan for 25 years. It was a shit run, to be honest.

Oh well. Sometimes you just lose interest in things.

Peace

 

[clunk]

I think I’ve missed the last ten games now. I have to come to terms with the fact that I don’t care anymore. At all. One way or the other.

I like doing hockey research and discussing strategy and whatnot with you fine folks but I officially relinquish my fandom. I no longer care if we win or lose and do not care if we win in the future.

I don’t know why or when or how it happened,but I’ve been ignoring the fact that it has and my complete apathy for tonight’s game makes it obvious.

Called myself a Canuck fan for 25 years. It was a **** run, to be honest.

Oh well. Sometimes you just lose interest in things.

Peace

There are many more important things in life than sports. If you're genuinely not enjoying yourself or cannot find any hope for the future of the franchise, I don't blame you for walking away to be honest. I'm not surprised that people are walking away from this product. Having the young players is great and all, but when your owner seems to care more about 2 home playoff games of ticket revenue over a cup, it is quite hard to enjoy supporting the team. It's a joke that this front office is still here. Takes a lot of the joy of watching the team away. Mostly just watching for Pettersson + Boeser + Horvat, now. I don't think this franchise is going anywhere until Jim + Weisbrod get canned.

I know we've had a few arguments in the past, but no hard feelings. Best of luck with whatever you do.

 

[XXIV97]

 

[GreatSaveLuongo]

Hopefully rookies keep their contributions and we start having losing streaks in 2019.

 

[Jack Burton]

Let's go team Tank!

 

[The Drop]

Here we go?

 

[mathonwy]

T-t-t-t-t-t-taaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaank