The Brandon Dubinsky expectations thread

[AndBoomGoesTheCannon]

I'm no huge fan of Dubi's at this point in his career, but Torts has had a recent fascination with playing the 4th line against the opposing team's 1st line.

 

[majormajor]

Who are the D pairings when Dubi is out there? Who is with wennbetg or nash when they do better? It could be them pulling him up amd dragging Dubi down.

The D pairs aren't skewed for Dubi. He plays a bit more with Savard but also less badly with him than the others. There's no skew with Wennberg and Nash.

As a rule, when a guy is that much out of the norm (in this case the worst on his team in goals against and pretty much the worst in the entire league), you can't blame one of his teammates for dragging him down. That teammate would have to have even worse numbers than Dubi to do that, and Dubi has the worst.

One potential sort of bias is that Dubi gets a lot more defensive zone faceoffs, so that doesn't help him. But you can do every one of your faceoffs in the D zone and not be expected to have goals against numbers anywhere near this bad. I tried but I can't think of any excuse for it.

Dubi is dominating in faceoffs sitting at #1 in the league since feb at 60%. When he is used soley as defense and pk mostly thats an important skill that no other player on the team can replicate. You dont want Milano type players of skill on the 4th line you want d minded checkers that can stop a play and start a rush to score or start the cycle for a line change to start a scoring chance.

Faceoffs are important because they are one of the things that help us have the puck so we can put the puck in the other teams net and keep them from putting the puck in ours. I'm telling you that Dubi has failed miserably at keeping the puck out of our net. When he is on the ice we are much much more likely to get scored on.

This conversation is like you're an airplane salesman and you're telling me about some cool feature of the plane, like how quickly it can takeoff. And I'm like, "yeah, but your plane blows up in the sky every time". You: "But dude, best takeoff speed". Me: "We're an airline, our passengers need to survive."

And for the record, I think Atkinson and Wennberg are our top 2 PK forwards, and one of the best duos in the league. Dubinsky might be a good PKer but we've got plenty. Dzingel and Nash were penalty killers until they came here. We've also got multiple centers above 55% in faceoffs, we have no need for Dubi there or anywhere.

The best part of stats is you look for stats to prove your points and you can twist stats very easily to show your points. For example people who hate guns say gun violence is the call of over 30k deaths a year. Thats a lot right? If you take out accidents and suicides its right at 10k give or take some depending on the year. Thats a lot of twisting that makes an issue seem like an epidemic that is in reality no worse then stabbings, drowning, car accidents, etc.

Only 10K gun homicides? That's barely half of Nationwide Arena! Ha, a laughable amount. No more than car accidents. Car accidents are okay in my book, as American as apple pie. My granddad was a car accident!

 

[majormajor]

I'm no huge fan of Dubi's at this point in his career, but Torts has had a recent fascination with playing the 4th line against the opposing team's 1st line.

I don't think it's been all that often.

And here's the kicker - Dubi's four and half goals against per 60 minutes is so bad, it's higher than Kucherov or Crosby's goals for per 60 minutes (the top guys). Putting Dubi out there against his average opponent gives us a higher chance of being scored on than if an average defender was on the ice against Kucherov or Crosby.

 

[mikeyp24]

The D pairs aren't skewed for Dubi. He plays a bit more with Savard but also less badly with him than the others. There's no skew with Wennberg and Nash.

As a rule, when a guy is that much out of the norm (in this case the worst on his team in goals against and pretty much the worst in the entire league), you can't blame one of his teammates for dragging him down. That teammate would have to have even worse numbers than Dubi to do that, and Dubi has the worst.

One potential sort of bias is that Dubi gets a lot more defensive zone faceoffs, so that doesn't help him. But you can do every one of your faceoffs in the D zone and not be expected to have goals against numbers anywhere near this bad. I tried but I can't think of any excuse for it.



Faceoffs are important because they are one of the things that help us have the puck so we can put the puck in the other teams net and keep them from putting the puck in ours. I'm telling you that Dubi has failed miserably at keeping the puck out of our net. When he is on the ice we are much much more likely to get scored on.

This conversation is like you're an airplane salesman and you're telling me about some cool feature of the plane, like how quickly it can takeoff. And I'm like, "yeah, but your plane blows up in the sky every time". You: "But dude, best takeoff speed". Me: "We're an airline, our passengers need to survive."

And for the record, I think Atkinson and Wennberg are our top 2 PK forwards, and one of the best duos in the league. Dubinsky might be a good PKer but we've got plenty. Dzingel and Nash were penalty killers until they came here. We've also got multiple centers above 55% in faceoffs, we have no need for Dubi there or anywhere.



Only 10K gun homicides? That's barely half of Nationwide Arena! Ha, a laughable amount. No more than car accidents. Car accidents are okay in my book, as American as apple pie. My granddad was a car accident!

I mean... I get what you are saying but the guy plays on the 4th line and normally with the 2nd or 3rd pair. The stats 1203% look god awful but it seems like a weird outlier that based on watching him, he doesnt seem like what you are suggesting. If I really wanted to argue the fact Id look at the goals and see if it was Dubi, D, or Bobs fault for the goals because our goalie makes an entire list of top 25 saves of the season per year but also once a game misses a shot that a division 3 college player could save.

Im just saying out of players we have that Id be willing to say scratch... Id scratch anyone below the top 9 not Dubi. So pld bread cam fligs jenner andy duchene dzingle and bjorkstrand. Out of guys like beer man, Wennberg, Sedlak, Robinson, Nash, or even like a stenlund or Milano callup I take Dubi plus any 2 every time.

 

[majormajor]

I mean... I get what you are saying but the guy plays on the 4th line and normally with the 2nd or 3rd pair. The stats 1203% look god awful but it seems like a weird outlier that based on watching him, he doesnt seem like what you are suggesting.

There you go again blaming everyone else for Dubi's problems. Go ahead and check the numbers for yourself, all those dreadful 4th liners are actually just fine without Dubi. Wennberg and Nash are both plus players without him.

 

[mikeyp24]

There you go again blaming everyone else for Dubi's problems. Go ahead and check the numbers for yourself, all those dreadful 4th liners are actually just fine without Dubi. Wennberg and Nash are both plus players without him.

Common you and I know how worthless plus is as a stat unless for very specific situations like having a +35 while playing 27min with no PP time and playing majority D zone and PK. That shows wow that guy is a great D. Just saying 2 players are plus not playing woth him removes literally all the other context.

Im going off of just watching Dubi. Watching Dubi I take him over Nash, Wennberg (in his current form), Sedlak, and pair him with Robinson if the kid can ever score a f***ing goal. Dubi plays with intensity and a attitude of we are going to win and he will hit, fight, agitate, get in the dirty areas, or anything he can do to win. How often does Wennberg have that intensity? How useful has Nash been at all since he has been here? Is Sedlak going to put in the same work? I get the numbers but the numbers dont always reflect the play you actually see on the ice. I mean its like Murray. People have shit on him about his numbers for years but anyone who watched him knew he was a stud shutdown D that at worst was a #3 but because JJ/Savard had an amazing year and Z and Jones were killing it so Murray playing 3rd pair was just what people needed to continue that narrative. Dubi should never play higher then 4th line dont get me wrong and he isnt some savior but out of those 4 or 5 guys he isn't the guy who should sit by anymeans.

 

[Theo Von]

@majormajor - i'm a big fan of your analysis. good stuff.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Common you and I know how worthless plus is as a stat unless for very specific situations like having a +35 while playing 27min with no PP time and playing majority D zone and PK. That shows wow that guy is a great D. Just saying 2 players are plus not playing woth him removes literally all the other context.

Im going off of just watching Dubi. Watching Dubi I take him over Nash, Wennberg (in his current form), Sedlak, and pair him with Robinson if the kid can ever score a ****ing goal. Dubi plays with intensity and a attitude of we are going to win and he will hit, fight, agitate, get in the dirty areas, or anything he can do to win. How often does Wennberg have that intensity? How useful has Nash been at all since he has been here? Is Sedlak going to put in the same work? I get the numbers but the numbers dont always reflect the play you actually see on the ice. I mean its like Murray. People have **** on him about his numbers for years but anyone who watched him knew he was a stud shutdown D that at worst was a #3 but because JJ/Savard had an amazing year and Z and Jones were killing it so Murray playing 3rd pair was just what people needed to continue that narrative. Dubi should never play higher then 4th line dont get me wrong and he isnt some savior but out of those 4 or 5 guys he isn't the guy who should sit by anymeans.

When you say ‘watching Dubi,’ do you mean in 2015?

I mean, that’s a snarky way of putting it but I don’t see that out of him any more. At least not in a consistent, makes-his-presence-felt kind of way.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Bottom line is obviously Dubi has a bad contract.
Contract is $5.85M for next 2 years. If we buy him out owe him $1.95M per over 4 years. Will save us $1.95M in cap room each of next 2 years.

To me question comes back to what would we be replacing him with? If we're upgrading a 3rd line C it makes sense. If it's just an extra forward I would just suck it up and keep him (again I still see us as a cash team not CAP team). Likely it's right in the middle where we would be looking to upgrade 4th line C.

Some of it may depend on where team goes next year. If we do resign or sign some quality players we may need the cap space, but if we lose a lot via free agency then again maybe suck it up rather than extending payments out.

Totally agree not productive right now and likely won't get much better, but a bad contract to deal with.

 

[GoJackets1]

It’s honestly incredible Dubi is managing a -15 given what little ice time he gets.

That’s next level bad.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Bottom line is obviously Dubi has a bad contract.
Contract is $5.85M for next 2 years. If we buy him out owe him $1.95M per over 4 years. Will save us $1.95M in cap room each of next 2 years.

To me question comes back to what would we be replacing him with? If we're upgrading a 3rd line C it makes sense. If it's just an extra forward I would just suck it up and keep him (again I still see us as a cash team not CAP team). Likely it's right in the middle where we would be looking to upgrade 4th line C.

Some of it may depend on where team goes next year. If we do resign or sign some quality players we may need the cap space, but if we lose a lot via free agency then again maybe suck it up rather than extending payments out.

Totally agree not productive right now and likely won't get much better, but a bad contract to deal with.

It’s worse than just a bad contract. He’s playing badly and taking a line-up spot that someone else could better serve.

 

[JacketsDavid]

It’s worse than just a bad contract. He’s playing badly and taking a line-up spot that someone else could better serve.

Which center is he holding back Letestu? He's next C up in Cleveland right? Maybe someone else there I'm missing but I wouldn't consider blocking Letestu something that hurts the franchise.

I know he's (Dubi) not good. But teams usually carry 2 extra forwards. You typically want a vet in that role, not a prospect rotting away. Would be a good spot for Dubi (or Letestu). Him actually playing most nights either tells us the coaches are idiots or he is the best option we have there.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Which center is he holding back Letestu? He's next C up in Cleveland right? Maybe someone else there I'm missing but I wouldn't consider blocking Letestu something that hurts the franchise.

I know he's (Dubi) not good. But teams usually carry 2 extra forwards. You typically want a vet in that role, not a prospect rotting away. Would be a good spot for Dubi (or Letestu). Him actually playing most nights either tells us the coaches are idiots or he is the best option we have there.

You're like Torts. You hold onto an image of Dubi that the stats (and eye) clearly belie. I'll take any combination of Wennberg-Nash-Sedlak-BeerMan-Robinson over Dubi while adding I'd probably have two centers on the line in case one is thrown out of the circle. This is especially true since Torts vision of the 4th line is "Do no harm" (which is what makes Dubi's inclusion so much more puzzling as MM's stats clearly show).

Oh, I probably should include Bjorkstrand over Dubi since in Torts world he's a 4th liner.

 

[majormajor]

Which center is he holding back Letestu? He's next C up in Cleveland right? Maybe someone else there I'm missing but I wouldn't consider blocking Letestu something that hurts the franchise.

I know he's (Dubi) not good. But teams usually carry 2 extra forwards. You typically want a vet in that role, not a prospect rotting away. Would be a good spot for Dubi (or Letestu). Him actually playing most nights either tells us the coaches are idiots or he is the best option we have there.

Did you read my posts? I don't mean to imply that you are obligated to, feel free to ignore them, but I don't think you'd be saying what you are saying if you understood the stats I posted last night. It's staggering stuff.

 

[LoveCBJ]

Sometimes a player brings something to a team that fans do not see. I think that is Dubi and Torts knows that. Notice that he is the last player off the ice after each win. The contract was bad, but he is a Blue Jacket and I will continue to cheer for him.

 

[Maylo]

Sometimes a player brings something to a team that fans do not see.

Fans, stats, scoreboard or camera! Magical qualities.


Hey, he's giving his teammates high fives at the end of the game they won, despite all his effort. Geeez... pinch me someone.

 

[Monk]

Fans, stats, scoreboard or camera! Magical qualities.


Hey, he's giving his teammates high fives at the end of the game they won, despite all his effort. Geeez... pinch me someone.

Were you one of the people worried about the effect the Bob and Panarin "situations" would have on the team's performance?

 

[LoveCBJ]

Fans, stats, scoreboard or camera! Magical qualities.


Hey, he's giving his teammates high fives at the end of the game they won, despite all his effort. Geeez... pinch me someone.

I coached a variety of teams and have seen it up close. The negativity of this board is disgusting.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

Bottom line is obviously Dubi has a bad contract.
Contract is $5.85M for next 2 years. If we buy him out owe him $1.95M per over 4 years. Will save us $1.95M in cap room each of next 2 years.

To me question comes back to what would we be replacing him with? If we're upgrading a 3rd line C it makes sense. If it's just an extra forward I would just suck it up and keep him (again I still see us as a cash team not CAP team). Likely it's right in the middle where we would be looking to upgrade 4th line C.

Some of it may depend on where team goes next year. If we do resign or sign some quality players we may need the cap space, but if we lose a lot via free agency then again maybe suck it up rather than extending payments out.

Totally agree not productive right now and likely won't get much better, but a bad contract to deal with.

We’d actually save $3.9 million in cap space.

With that said, I’m inclined to agree with your thoughts. In a perfect world, we’d sign Panarin, Bob and Duchene, and likely need that cap space. But what if we only sign Duchene or can’t even sign him? Are we really going to be a cap team then next year? I doubt it. So maybe it makes sense to just keep Dubi the next two years or at least next year and then reevaluate a buyout after next season (which would keep him as a cap hit only until 2022 instead of a the hit being until 2023 if he was bought out after this season).

The only problem is, while I’d be fine with that if he wasn’t taking a roster spot of a young deserving player/was made a healthy scratch to get a better hockey player in the lineup, that wouldn’t be the case.

 

[majormajor]

We’d actually save $3.9 million in cap space.

With that said, I’m inclined to agree with your thoughts. In a perfect world, we’d sign Panarin, Bob and Duchene, and likely need that cap space. But what if we only sign Duchene or can’t even sign him? Are we really going to be a cap team then next year? I doubt it. So maybe it makes sense to just keep Dubi the next two years or at least next year and then reevaluate a buyout after next season (which would keep him as a cap hit only until 2022 instead of a the hit being until 2023 if he was bought out after this season).

The only problem is, while I’d be fine with that if he wasn’t taking a roster spot of a young deserving player/was made a healthy scratch to get a better hockey player in the lineup, that wouldn’t be the case.

Yes, Dubinsky actually being in the lineup is a huge minus. If the club didn't want to do a buyout and drag out the costs, then burying him in the minors would seem to be a good option. But if that's not available it would have to be a buyout. There's no way I'd keep him as a #13F.

And though we don't know if the club will need the cap space, now or in 2022, -- which would seem to suggest we should wait until we really need the cap -- it's also $3.9m in actual money.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Did you read my posts? I don't mean to imply that you are obligated to, feel free to ignore them, but I don't think you'd be saying what you are saying if you understood the stats I posted last night. It's staggering stuff.

Quite honestly no. If you have to argue with 4+ people on why you are right then it's not crystal clear. Not to me, not to other posters, not to a NHL coaching staff and not to the CBJ franchise.

Yes he's played horribly this year. That doesn't mean he's not not our best option for 4C for the remainder of 2018-19.

 

[majormajor]

Quite honestly no. If you have to argue with 4+ people on why you are right then it's not crystal clear. Not to me, not to other posters

If people aren't actually reading what I'm saying (which you admit to) then of course it isn't going to be crystal clear.

 

[CBJx614]

There's a reason Dubi is only on the ice in crucial situations for the faceoff and then immediately comes off the ice afterwards. If that doesn't tell you all you need to know about his on ice ability than idk what to say.

And even those days or coming to an end, Jenner seems to be able to handle the defensive draws, and Duchene the offensive.

 

[majormajor]

There's a eating Dubi is only on the ice in crucial situations for the faceoff and then immediately comes off the ice afterwards. If that doesn't tell you all you need to know about his on ice ability than idk what to say.

And even those days or coming to an end, Jenner seems to be able to handle the defensive draws, and Duchene the offensive.

I don't think Torts usage of players tells us everything we need to know. You might get the idea from his putting Dubi in there for Jenner on defensive draws that Dubi is a better defensive player, and better on faceoffs. They're just about the same on faceoffs and the truth is that Dubi's presence on the ice is the equivalent of putting Kucherov out there against us, it has roughly the same effect in upping our chances of being scored on. From Torts usage we'd also get the idea that Bjorkstrand is a disaster defensively, where in truth his results lately have been close to the happy opposite of Dubinsky's.