The Brandon Dubinsky expectations thread

[Cyclones Rock]

https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/columbus-blue-jackets-team-stats?season=2018&category=DEFENSE&time=0
Blocked Shots:
PLD 33
AW 19

Hits/Game:
PLD 1.4
AW 0.4

The blocked shots would certainly support your argument for PLD over Wennberg in key defensive situations.

 

[thebus88]

The blocked shots would certainly support your argument for PLD over Wennberg in key defensive situations.

Dubois is better on faceoffs, "intensity", defensively with his stick, and along the boards.

And, arguably even this "defensive awareness".....

No?

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Dubois is better on faceoffs, "intensity", defensively with his stick, and along the boards.

And, arguably even this "defensive awareness".....

No?

Whatever that really means.

PLD is a year 2, 20 year old. If he makes a few more positional mistakes defensively than Wennberg (and I'm not saying that he does), it's just part of the growing process.

Also, it's worth noting that as a #1C he's facing much tougher competition than Wennberg, so if certain stats make Wennberg look superior defensively to PLD than the difference *could* be attributed to QualofComp.

Wennberg needs to be given away in a trade or bought out at 1/3rd. Actually-and I can't believe I'm saying this-if the decision had to made today, I'd buy out Wennberg and Nash and keep Dubinsky. Subject to change, of course

 

[Viqsi]

We have different ideas of, "effectiveness", "end results" and "getting the job done".

Well, yeah. You seem to be focused on One True Approach To The Game, and I'm looking more at Many Approaches Means You're Harder To Stop.

Ok. Tell yourself that. Though I'll ask, what supports THAT position??

The fact that he's getting similar results preventing goals and shots against despite a very different play style? Really, the only objection there is faceoffs, because of the obvious "it's easier to defend if you start with the puck" thing, and Dubi is measurably better in that regard. Wennberg does seem to be showing signs of improving of late, altho I hesitate to call him "improved" until he keeps it up for longer than a month.

I'd argue if Dubois wasn't given such heavy "1st line" and PP time that HE would (or should IMO) be put in these defensive situations over Wennberg.

Oh, I completely agree. I'd put him in over Dubinsky as well, tho, so that's not saying much.

And its not like they EVER put Wennberg out there last shift as the 2nd or even 3rd forward, to "close out" a game. Dubinsky, Jenner, Foligno, Anderson....among OTHERS. Why?

Do you have supporting data for that? 'Cause I could have sworn I'd seen him out there in those situations multiple times. Not starting, usually (because faceoffs), but IIRC he's usually one of the first guys over the boards in the lategame when a change is possible.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

This is the Dubinsky thread?

 

[Crede777]

This is the Dubinsky thread?

He's become irrelevant even in his own thread.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

He's become irrelevant even in his own thread.

Behind Wennberg in defensive statement mentions.

 

[Viqsi]

This is the Dubinsky thread?

I think it still qualifies so long as a majority of posts at least mention his name.
at least, that's how I justify it to myself

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Blue Jackets' Brandon Dubinsky grudgingly accepts 'utility'...

“Yeah, I was the guy coming in and taking jobs,” Dubinsky said. “As much as I want more, I can’t sit here and say I should be playing more than P-L, or that I should have any of his ice time.
“He’s our best center, by a mile, in my opinion. We need him to be, too.”
Dubinsky said he’s spoken with former teammates Scott Gomez and Scott Hartnell about how to handle the situation.
He also noted that former Rangers teammate Ryan Callahan is going through the same situation with the Tampa Bay Lightning, whom the Jackets play Tuesday in Amalie Arena. Callahan is playing just 11:33 per game for the NHL’s top team.
“It’s difficult at times, without a doubt, because mentally you still feel like you are at a certain spot, but maybe you don’t feel that way physically all the time,” Dubinsky said. “So, yeah, I’ve talked to guys. The best advice is to just keep grinding away.”

 

[The Jones Zone]

Dubi expected back tomorrow vs. Habs

I liked that Stenland didn't seem intimidated at this level, but being able to finish the season at Cleveland isn't going to hurt him any

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Dubi expected back tomorrow vs. Habs

I liked that Stenland didn't seem intimidated at this level, but being able to finish the season at Cleveland isn't going to hurt him any

Sounds like Stenlund is staying in the lineup for now. Looks like Duclair is the one coming out of the lineup - which is absurd - for Dubi...

 

[The Jones Zone]

Sounds like Stenlund is staying in the lineup for now. Looks like Duclair is the one coming out of the lineup - which is absurd - for Dubi...

I think it's the wrong move....but DuClair was terrible against the Devils
He had been checking some the previous games, but refused to Tuesday night
That line was terrible, and He was the worst player.

He still gives the team break away speed the other team has to respect and can lead to CBJ goals

 

[MoeBartoli]

I think it's the wrong move....but DuClair was terrible against the Devils
He had been checking some the previous games, but refused to Tuesday night
That line was terrible, and He was the worst player.

He still gives the team break away speed the other team has to respect and can lead to CBJ goals

Yeah, but Dubi is regularly among the worst players. He doesn't pass the eye test and Alison Lukan's recent story outlining WAR numbers tell me my eyes aren't lying.

 

[thebus88]

 

[Cyclones Rock]

At this point, it's really "which center other than PLD will hurt the team less". If it's a decision between playing 3 of the 4 of Dubinsky, Nash, Sedlak and Wennberg, it's pretty much flip of the coin. I'd probably rotate one out every 4 games for the next month and make my decision based on their play in the next month.

I wouldn't give Wennberg one ounce of priority over Dubinsky. Dubinsky brings better goal scoring and grit and faceoff abilities and Wennberg has better speed and passing. Pretty much rock/paper/scissors on this one. I'd probably take Dubinsky if it were my decision.

 

[Maylo]

I'd probably take Dubinsky if it were my decision.

The sky is falling.

 

[Forepar]

At this point, it's really "which center other than PLD will hurt the team less". If it's a decision between playing 3 of the 4 of Dubinsky, Nash, Sedlak and Wennberg, it's pretty much flip of the coin. I'd probably rotate one out every 4 games for the next month and make my decision based on their play in the next month.

I wouldn't give Wennberg one ounce of priority over Dubinsky. Dubinsky brings better goal scoring and grit and faceoff abilities and Wennberg has better speed and passing. Pretty much rock/paper/scissors on this one. I'd probably take Dubinsky if it were my decision.

Am I missing something? Not being smartass, we kind of forget Jenner is our de facto #2C. And while he may not be a premier 2C, his line has been very positive contributor since it became 77/38/71.

It may be choosing 3 of the 4 listed to be in the lineup, but only 2 at C.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Am I missing something? Not being smartass, we kind of forget Jenner is our de facto #2C. And while he may not be a premier 2C, his line has been very positive contributor since it became 77/38/71.

It may be choosing 3 of the 4 listed to be in the lineup, but only 2 at C.

Oops. Redo.

2 spots for the other 4. Flip them coins.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

The sky is falling.

Huge Wennberg wake up call if it were done.

 

[Maylo]

Huge Wennberg wake up call if it were done.

I mean considering your posts about Dubinsky last season and off season, that call on Wennberg was really LOUD!

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I mean considering your posts about Dubinsky last season and off season, that call on Wennberg was really LOUD!

\



#10 really needs something to wake his sorry a$$ up. If sitting while 2 of the 3 of Dubinsky, Nash and Sedlak are playing won't do it, then nothing will.

I can't recall a CBJ in the past 6 or 7 years since I've been closely watching them who deserves the press box "treatment" more than Wennberg.

 

[majormajor]

I checked the Jackets' goals against rates for the most recent 30 games, and somehow Dubinsky got even worse.

1. Dubinsky's dead last in the NHL in that period in GA/60. Also rock bottom in goals share (GF%).

2. Wennberg has about 1/3 the goals against per minute. Nothing happens, good or bad, when that guy is on the ice. Folks in this thread are talking as if these two players are interchangeable, but putting Dubinsky in for Wennberg multiplies the goals against by a factor of 3. (See point 5, it's actually a factor of 6.6!)

3. I'd love to know if anyone would dare give Torts the numbers on this one - Bjorkstrand, who Torts doesn't trust and benches for minor mistakes, has the lowest GA/60 on the team.

4. Riley Nash would seem to also be struggling recently defensively, but I checked the "with you without you" for Nash and Dubinsky, and sure enough it's a "I have Dubinsky on my line please help" kind of problem. Nash is a plus player without Dubi but has 0 goals for and 8 goals against in just 90 minutes with him.

5. This exercise prompted me to circle back to point number 2 and check how much of Wennberg's modest goals against is Dubinsky's fault. A lot of it! Wennberg's been on for 6 goals against in the last 30 games. In 270 minutes without Dubinsky, he's given up a shockingly low 3 goals. The other 3 came rapidly in just 30 minutes with Dubinsky.

This is what a defensive liability is.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I checked the Jackets' goals against rates for the most recent 30 games, and somehow Dubinsky got even worse.

1. Dubinsky's dead last in the NHL in that period in GA/60. Also rock bottom in goals share (GF%).

2. Wennberg has about 1/3 the goals against per minute. Nothing happens, good or bad, when that guy is on the ice. Folks in this thread are talking as if these two players are interchangeable, but putting Dubinsky in for Wennberg multiplies the goals against by a factor of 3. (See point 5, it's actually a factor of 6.6!)

3. I'd love to know if anyone would dare give Torts the numbers on this one - Bjorkstrand, who Torts doesn't trust and benches for minor mistakes, has the lowest GA/60 on the team.

4. Riley Nash would seem to also be struggling recently defensively, but I checked the "with you without you" for Nash and Dubinsky, and sure enough it's a "I have Dubinsky on my line please help" kind of problem. Nash is a plus player without Dubi but has 0 goals for and 8 goals against in just 90 minutes with him.

5. This exercise prompted me to circle back to point number 2 and check how much of Wennberg's modest goals against is Dubinsky's fault. A lot of it! Wennberg's been on for 6 goals against in the last 30 games. In 270 minutes without Dubinsky, he's given up a shockingly low 3 goals. The other 3 came rapidly in just 30 minutes with Dubinsky.

This is what a defensive liability is.

Why do you keep pissing me off and posting what everyone should already know. I've been advocating Dubinsky's departure for the past two and half seasons. In fact last year some pushed back so much that I said I would wait until the off season to restart my campaign. Glad you add some metrics.

I did like how you I served the stat on Bjorkstrand's underrated defensive outcomes. Add this to his offensive abilities md I'm reminded how happy I will be when Torts is gone (or Bjorkstrand is given a chance with a new team if our current living-in-the-past coach returns.

 

[mikeyp24]

Who are the D pairings when Dubi is out there? Who is with wennbetg or nash when they do better? It could be them pulling him up amd dragging Dubi down. The best part of stats is you look for stats to prove your points and you can twist stats very easily to show your points. For example people who hate guns say gun violence is the call of over 30k deaths a year. Thats a lot right? If you take out accidents and suicides its right at 10k give or take some depending on the year. Thats a lot of twisting that makes an issue seem like an epidemic that is in reality no worse then stabbings, drowning, car accidents, etc.

Dubi is dominating in faceoffs sitting at #1 in the league since feb at 60%. When he is used soley as defense and pk mostly thats an important skill that no other player on the team can replicate. You dont want Milano type players of skill on the 4th line you want d minded checkers that can stop a play and start a rush to score or start the cycle for a line change to start a scoring chance.

 

[majormajor]

I did like how you I served the stat on Bjorkstrand's underrated defensive outcomes. Add this to his offensive abilities md I'm reminded how happy I will be when Torts is gone (or Bjorkstrand is given a chance with a new team if our current living-in-the-past coach returns.

Yes, seeing that made me think about how much of a disconnect between perception and reality there can be, not just in this situation but in so many things in life. Dubinsky is getting his minutes on reputation and image, and more minutes when we need defensive help. He's a veteran, he's strong, he's plied the penalty kills and been tasked with shutting down opponents for years now. Reputations have a mass to them, and they can outweigh results. And what exactly is Bjorkstrand's reputation for defense? He's a literal lightweight, and can occasionally get run over on the wall and fail to clear the zone. Torts seems to notice it every time. To be honest I was quite surprised that Bjorkstrand had such low goals against lately.