The Big 4 prediction thread

[ILoveStephanieBrown]

I'm on record that Ghost will be the best. Becomes an offensive dynamo (not Karlsson good, but Keith in a peak year [60 point peak]), while holding his own defensively.

Morin doesn't become the two-way threat we hope, but does become a sturdy defender (like an Orpik) with a mean streak.

Hagg and Sanheim both come to similar levels of two-way play. Think Bieksa.

Take it back

 

[Prongo]

I think Morin is going to be the franchise dman we have coveted for years to come. His ceiling is as high as the sky. His shot is perfect for the PP unit and he should be a staple on this team for 15 years. My expectations aren't high though haha

 

[BringBackHakstol]

What I'm worried about with these 4 is if they can actually clear to corners and pivot.

But really, I'm predicting that Ghost will be the best of the bunch - a Rafalski level player. His awareness, skating, and puck skills I hope can overcome his size and strength issues.

 

[Striiker]

But what will their +/-'s be like?

That's the real question and really all that matters.

 

[Legion of Gloom]

Hagg - Andrew MacDonald

Gostisbehere - Booby Orr, will hurt his knee and will play one season

Morin - Braydon Coburn but will use his body more and takes more
penalties

Sanheim - Mark Streit

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I don't think any will be "franchise" defensemen (i.e., perpetual Norris candidates). However, I'm pretty optimistic:

Ghost - Dan Boyle

Hagg - Kim Johnsson

Sanheim - Tom Poti (this is a tough one)

Morin - Erik Gudbranson (another tough one)

 

[flyershockey]

I don't think any will be "franchise" defensemen (i.e., perpetual Norris candidates). However, I'm pretty optimistic:

Ghost - Dan Boyle

Hagg - Kim Johnsson

Sanheim - Tom Poti (this is a tough one)

Morin - Erik Gudbranson (another tough one)

I think Philadelphia Kim Johnsson is a little high for Hagg. Maybe a more physical Minnesota level Johnsson is more realistic. I don't see Hagg becoming a 40 point defenseman at the NHL level.

 

[Tripod]

But what will their +/-'s be like?

That's the real question and really all that matters.

lol...Schenn will be better than them all!

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I think Philadelphia Kim Johnsson is a little high for Hagg. Maybe a more physical Minnesota level Johnsson is more realistic. I don't see Hagg becoming a 40 point defenseman at the NHL level.

I'm not sure. I think Hagg's offensive ability is better than sometimes he's given credit. I think in time he could hit 35-40 points.

 

[Striiker]

I think Philadelphia Kim Johnsson is a little high for Hagg. Maybe a more physical Minnesota level Johnsson is more realistic. I don't see Hagg becoming a 40 point defenseman at the NHL level.

Why not? (legit asking)

I'm not saying he will become one but is there something specific that makes you think he can't? I know he hasn't scored much in the SHL, but he wasn't used in a roll that'd give him much of an opportunity to score and that's a much lower scoring league anyway.

lol...Schenn will be better than them all!

Speaking of Schenn, when I read that Coburn thread the first thing I thought of was that if I were Beef I'd literally copy that exact post and put it in the BSchenn thread and just switch Braydon Coburn's name with Braydon Schenn, just to be a trolling dick

 

[flyershockey]

Why not? (legit asking)

I'm not saying he will become one but is there something specific that makes you think he can't? I know he hasn't scored much in the SHL, but he wasn't used in a roll that'd give him much of an opportunity to score and that's a much lower scoring league anyway.

I haven't see much from him to suggest that he's going to put up big time points in the NHL. Admittedly, he was never really given the chance in the SHL or at the WJC because of the role he was playing, but 40 points is a lot for a defenseman by today's standards. 40 points puts you in the top 25 for defensive scoring. It's just not a realistic goal to put on him.

 

[CS]

Here's how I see things...

Timonen will retire. Streit is starting to get older, so we should look to move him in the next couple of years. MacDonald should be moved as soon as some of the guys show signs, honestly, and Grossmann should be gone already.

That leaves...

Coburn (29)
Schenn (24)
Manning (24)
Alt (22)
Gostisbehere (21)
Hagg (19)
Morin (19)
Sanheim (18)
Pettersson (18)

So, 5 years from now...

Schenn (27) - Giroux (31) - Voracek (29)
Leier (25) - Couturier (26) - Simmonds (30)
Aube-Kubel (23) - Laughton (25) - Read (33)
xxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx

Gostisbehere (26) - Morin (24)
Hagg (24) - Coburn (34)
Sanheim (23) - Schenn (29)
Pettersson (23)

Mason (31)
xxxxxxxxxx

The real question here is whether or not that team can potentially win a Stanley Cup.

 

[flyershockey]

Here's how I see things...

Timonen will retire. Streit is starting to get older, so we should look to move him in the next couple of years. MacDonald should be moved as soon as some of the guys show signs, honestly, and Grossmann should be gone already.

That leaves...

Coburn (29)
Schenn (24)
Manning (24)
Alt (22)
Gostisbehere (21)
Hagg (19)
Morin (19)
Sanheim (18)
Pettersson (18)

So, 5 years from now...

Schenn (27) - Giroux (31) - Voracek (29)
Leier (25) - Couturier (26) - Simmonds (30)
Aube-Kubel (23) - Laughton (25) - Read (33)
xxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx

Gostisbehere (26) - Morin (24)
Hagg (24) - Coburn (34)
Sanheim (23) - Schenn (29)
Pettersson (23)

Mason (31)
xxxxxxxxxx

The real question here is whether or not that team can potentially win a Stanley Cup.

These things are so hard to project because they will have added another 4-5 first round selections to the pool as well in that time frame, plus whatever mid round picks that may be making an impact. In five years, the forward group especially could look a lot different.

 

[Striiker]

I haven't see much from him to suggest that he's going to put up big time points in the NHL. Admittedly, he was never really given the chance in the SHL or at the WJC because of the role he was playing, but 40 points is a lot for a defenseman by today's standards. 40 points puts you in the top 25 for defensive scoring. It's just not a realistic goal to put on him.

True. I wouldn't be too surprised if he did because of how good our forwards are and the fact that he's a good skater, good passer, and has a decent shot. He could end up racking up some serious assists, especially if he ends up on the PP. Who knows.

 

[CS]

These things are so hard to project because they will have added another 4-5 first round selections to the pool as well in that time frame, plus whatever mid round picks that may be making an impact. In five years,

I know, but let's consider our offense at it's most basic...

Giroux is our 1st team
Couturier is our 2nd team

Everything offensively stems from there.

Is our defense, the way we are constructing it, going to be ready soon enough for the Giroux "window" to mean something?

Is Laughton going to be a legitimate offensive weapon?

What are we doing with the wings?

If one of these defensemen start to show signs of worry, should we continue to attack defense?

When is it time to retool the offense?

These are all the important questions going forward. We don't have 5-6 years to figure out the answers.

 

[Curufinwe]

Probably a third of those guys won't be here five years from now.

If Mason is still here in 2019 it means he must have been pretty great.

 

[flyershockey]

I know, but let's consider our offense at it's most basic...

Giroux is our 1st team
Couturier is our 2nd team

Everything offensively stems from there.

Is our defense, the way we are constructing it, going to be ready soon enough for the Giroux "window" to mean something?

Is Laughton going to be a legitimate offensive weapon?

What are we doing with the wings?

If one of these defensemen start to show signs of worry, should we continue to attack defense?

When is it time to retool the offense?

These are all the important questions going forward. We don't have 5-6 years to figure out the answers.

I think they're definitely looking at becoming contenders before Giroux starts a decline. That gives them 2-4 years to really build a contender, and then a 2-3 year window where Giroux is still the focal point of the offense.

Ideally, I think they spend most of the next two drafts really trying to bolster the wing position of the prospect pool. That's the one position on the ice where a team can still be considered "green" while contending. It also happens to be one of the easier to positions to draft, well at least it seems to be for everyone outside of the Flyers.

Whether or not this team becomes a true contender really comes down to the development of Morin, Hagg, Ghost, Sanheim, Alt, Wilcox, Freidman and Vasiliev. If they develop 2-3 impact defensemen out of that group to go with Coburn and possibly MacDonald, I think they can start to contend by the end of that 2-4 year window that I laid out above. Any defenseman drafted after next year probably won't be ready for this team when they're ready to compete. If those guys don't develop, or if they only get one or two good ones out of the group, the Giroux era might be defined by average teams.

 

[flyershockey]

Probably a third of those guys won't be here five years from now.

If Mason is still here in 2019 it means he must have been pretty great.

Mason is only 26. There's strong possibility that he's still here in five years, especially if he repeats last year's performance. If he does that, the only thing that might force him out is Stolarz developing into a top ten goaltender.

 

[Curufinwe]

Sure, but if he struggles they will cut him lose in 2017 and sign a free agent goalie.

 

[dats81]

Here's how I see things...

Timonen will retire. Streit is starting to get older, so we should look to move him in the next couple of years. MacDonald should be moved as soon as some of the guys show signs, honestly, and Grossmann should be gone already.

That leaves...

Coburn (29)
Schenn (24)
Manning (24)
Alt (22)
Gostisbehere (21)
Hagg (19)
Morin (19)
Sanheim (18)
Pettersson (18)

So, 5 years from now...

Schenn (27) - Giroux (31) - Voracek (29)
Leier (25) - Couturier (26) - Simmonds (30)
Aube-Kubel (23) - Laughton (25) - Read (33)
xxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx

Gostisbehere (26) - Morin (24)
Hagg (24) - Coburn (34)
Sanheim (23) - Schenn (29)
Pettersson (23)

Mason (31)
xxxxxxxxxx

The real question here is whether or not that team can potentially win a Stanley Cup.

Most people seem to agree that defensemen don't hit their prime until their late twenties and Ghost and especially Morin are not exactly taking the fast lane in their development so far which backs up that opinion. All in all it's more likely that our cup run starts 6 to 8 years from now which sucks because Giroux will almost be in his mid thirties.

... or Coburn, Schenn and MacDonald make it to the next level and each lead a D pair and compensate for our youngsters not yet reaching their full potential at that point... or Hextall somehow finds a way to trade for a #1 D

 

[Striiker]

I don't think Giroux will have much of a decline like a Richards type player would. Look at MSL, he's like 50 now and he's still doing fine.

 

[Striiker]

We don't need all of our D to be in their prime, as long as they can do their job we should be fine to compete. Our offense is top 10 and our goaltending is looking much better than before, if we have a competent D that can move the puck, skate, and play D we should be OK.

 

[Curufinwe]

I don't think Giroux will have much of a decline like a Richards type player would. Look at MSL, he's like 50 now and he's still doing fine.

I'm hoping Giroux can have a Yzerman-like career. Lower numbers because the game is not as wide open as the late 80s and early 90s, but the same type of longevity.

 

[Striiker]

I'm hoping Giroux can have a Yzerman-like career. Lower numbers because the game is not as wide open as the late 80s and early 90s, but the same type of longevity.

Doesn't seem unrealistic, but it'd take a bit of luck as far as health/injuries over the next couple of years. I'm hopeful.

 

[dats81]

I don't think Giroux will have much of a decline like a Richards type player would. Look at MSL, he's like 50 now and he's still doing fine.

I hope so.

But Hextall as a GM needs to go by average career numbers when he is making his long term plans. If Giroux turns out a perfect example of longevity like St.Louis, Selänne, or a Mark Recchi that's great but certainly nothing one could or should bank on.