The Big 4 prediction thread

[Random Forest]

Even if Giroux breaks down once he hits 30, he can still be moved to the wing and/or play easy minutes and put up solid numbers.

I have full confidence in Couturier becoming a 55 point centerman, too. He'll be our Bergeron by then. I'm pretty sure even an older Giroux could be our Krejci.

I'm really not concerned about our forward core. And there's still plenty of time to draft solid forwards between now and then, too. And forwards don't take as long to develop, so the timing would work.

 

[flyershockey]

Most people seem to agree that defensemen don't hit their prime until their late twenties and Ghost and especially Morin are not exactly taking the fast lane in their development so far which backs up that opinion. All in all it's more likely that our cup run starts 6 to 8 years from now which sucks because Giroux will almost be in his mid thirties.

... or Coburn, Schenn and MacDonald make it to the next level and each lead a D pair and compensate for our youngsters not yet reaching their full potential at that point... or Hextall somehow finds a way to trade for a #1 D

That's not entirely true because of how the game is changing. Defensemen are coming into the league at younger ages than ever and gaining actual NHL experience in their early 20's versus playing in the AHL for most of that time. 24-26 is the new 27-29 in terms of when most defensmen start to hit their prime.

Chicago won their first cup based around a defense consisting of Keith (26), Seabrook (24) and Hjalmarsson (22) playing big minutes. In 2012, the Kings won their cup with two 21 year olds (Doughty and Voynov) getting top four minutes and another 24 year old getting a good amount of playing time in Martinez. It can be done as long as you have a team committed to playing a full 200 foot game and not leaving your defense on an island.

 

[Striiker]

Plus, it's not like we're trading away all our 1st round picks anymore and I'm sure we're going to start drafting forwards again eventually. We got Giroux late in the 1st so it's not like we need a top 5 pick to get a great forward. I'm not worried about it.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

That's not entirely true because of how the game is changing. Defensemen are coming into the league at younger ages than ever and gaining actual NHL experience in their early 20's versus playing in the AHL for most of that time. 24-26 is the new 27-29 in terms of when most defensmen start to hit their prime.

Chicago won their first cup based around a defense consisting of Keith (26), Seabrook (24) and Hjalmarsson (22) playing big minutes. In 2012, the Kings won their cup with two 21 year olds (Doughty and Voynov) getting top four minutes and another 24 year old getting a good amount of playing time in Martinez. It can be done as long as you have a team committed to playing a full 200 foot game and not leaving your defense on an island.

I read a study at some point this season that said most defensemen are at 90% of their peak by age 24.

 

[BernieParent]

Here goes ...

Hagg: Bust
Morin: Goon (bust)
Sanheim: Bust
Gostisbehere: Career-ending injury in the minors

Jinx = reversed

 

[Appleyard]

Centres who have put up more or similar PPG aged 23-26 to Giroux in the last 20 years (Italics indicates in an era roughly over 6GPG average over the 4 seasons, now scoring is at ~5.3-5.4 goals per game.):

Crosby: 1.47 PPG
Fedorov: 1.37 PPG
Sakic: 1.29 PPG
Thornton: 1.27 PPG
Lindros: 1.25 PPG
Forsberg: 1.23 PPG
Turgeon: 1.20 PPG
Malkin: 1.19 PPG
Roenick: 1.14 PPG
Modano: 1.08 PPG
Spezza: 1.08 PPG
Zhamnov: 1.07 PPG
Giroux: 1.05 PPG
Sundin: 1.04 PPG
Lecavalier: 1.02 PPG
Weight: 1.02 PPG
Allison: 1.00 PPG
Getzlaf: 0.99 PPG
Richards: 0.98 PPG
Yashin: 0.98 PPG
Zetterberg: 0.98 PPG
Staal: 0.96 PPG
Backstrom: 0.95 PPG
Brind'Amour: 0.95 PPG
Toews: 0.95 PPG
Kopitar: 0.91 PPG
Gomez: 0.86 PPG
H. Sedin: 0.83 PPG
Marleau: 0.82 PPG

If you era adjusted that I think the only players Giroux is behind are: Crosby, Fedorov, Sakic, Thornton, Lindros, Forsberg and Malkin. I briefly looked over the era adjusted individual years and they are the only players with clearly better 4 seasons offensively between that age. Turgeon, Modano, Sundin, Spezza and Roenick are just behind him at a brief glance.

A lot of the players around and behind Giroux on that list were or are still 1st line centres in their mid 30's.

Sundin was still a 1st liner aged 36.
Brind'Amour was still a 1st liner aged 36.
Modano was still a 1st liner aged 35.
Weight was still a 1st liner aged 34.
Roenick was still a 1st liner aged 34.
Marleau is still a 1st liner aged 34.
Zetterberg is still a 1st liner aged 33.
Zhamnov was still a 1st liner aged 33.
Sedin is still a 1st liner aged 33.
Yashin was still a 1st liner aged 33.
Spezza is still as 1st liner aged 31.
Turgeon was still a 1st liner aged 31.
Lecavalier was still a 1st liner aged 31.
Gomez was still a 1st liner aged 30.
Allison was still a 1st liner aged 30.


They are the players ~immediately behind Giroux in scoring age 23-26 over the last 20 years. (adjusted very unscientifically.)

The players ahead:

Sakic was still a 1st liner aged 39.
Fedorov was still a 1st liner aged 35.
Thornton is still a 1st liner aged 35.
Forsberg was still a 1st liner aged 34.
Lindros was still a 1st liner aged 30.

That is 5/19 who were not 1st liner by their age 33 season. (Spezza is still unknown.)

However jump to 34 and it is 7/17 who were not 1st liners. (Sedin, Zetterberg and Spezza unknown.)

35 and it is 10/16 who were not 1st liners. (Sedin, Marleau, Zetterberg and Spezza unknown.)

The odds are in Girouxs favour until he is ~34... after that he will very likely no longer be a 1st line player.

 

[CS]

So odds are that we have an 8-year window.

If Couturier takes a larger offensive role, and Laughton becomes the shut-down guy, then this is possible to have that championship defense going into the end of the Giroux cycle assuming all of our defensemen develop well.

 

[Striiker]

Centres who have put up more or similar PPG aged 23-26 to Giroux in the last 20 years (Italics indicates in an era roughly over 6GPG average over the 4 seasons, now scoring is at ~5.3-5.4 goals per game.):

Crosby: 1.47 PPG
Fedorov: 1.37 PPG
Sakic: 1.29 PPG
Thornton: 1.27 PPG
Lindros: 1.25 PPG
Forsberg: 1.23 PPG
Turgeon: 1.20 PPG
Malkin: 1.19 PPG
Roenick: 1.14 PPG
Modano: 1.08 PPG
Spezza: 1.08 PPG
Zhamnov: 1.07 PPG
Giroux: 1.05 PPG
Sundin: 1.04 PPG
Lecavalier: 1.02 PPG
Weight: 1.02 PPG
Allison: 1.00 PPG
Getzlaf: 0.99 PPG
Richards: 0.98 PPG
Yashin: 0.98 PPG
Zetterberg: 0.98 PPG
Staal: 0.96 PPG
Backstrom: 0.95 PPG
Brind'Amour: 0.95 PPG
Toews: 0.95 PPG
Kopitar: 0.91 PPG
Gomez: 0.86 PPG
H. Sedin: 0.83 PPG
Marleau: 0.82 PPG

If you era adjusted that I think the only players Giroux is behind are: Crosby, Fedorov, Sakic, Thornton, Lindros, Forsberg and Malkin. I briefly looked over the era adjusted individual years and they are the only players with clearly better 4 seasons offensively between that age. Turgeon, Modano, Sundin, Spezza and Roenick are just behind him at a brief glance.

A lot of the players around and behind Giroux on that list were or are still 1st line centres in their mid 30's.

Sundin was still a 1st liner aged 36.
Brind'Amour was still a 1st liner aged 36.
Modano was still a 1st liner aged 35.
Weight was still a 1st liner aged 34.
Roenick was still a 1st liner aged 34.
Marleau is still a 1st liner aged 34.
Zetterberg is still a 1st liner aged 33.
Zhamnov was still a 1st liner aged 33.
Sedin is still a 1st liner aged 33.
Yashin was still a 1st liner aged 33.
Spezza is still as 1st liner aged 31.
Turgeon was still a 1st liner aged 31.
Lecavalier was still a 1st liner aged 31.
Gomez was still a 1st liner aged 30.
Allison was still a 1st liner aged 30.


They are the players ~immediately behind Giroux in scoring age 23-26 over the last 20 years. (adjusted very unscientifically.)

The players ahead:

Sakic was still a 1st liner aged 39.
Fedorov was still a 1st liner aged 35.
Thornton is still a 1st liner aged 35.
Forsberg was still a 1st liner aged 34.
Lindros was still a 1st liner aged 30.

That is 5/19 who were not 1st liner by their age 33 season. (Spezza is still unknown.)

However jump to 34 and it is 7/17 who were not 1st liners. (Sedin, Zetterberg and Spezza unknown.)

35 and it is 10/16 who were not 1st liners. (Sedin, Marleau, Zetterberg and Spezza unknown.)

The odds are in Girouxs favour until he is ~34... after that he will very likely no longer be a 1st line player.

 

[Gert B Frobe]

I have very high expectations for Haag and Morin. The other two are more difficult to predict.

Morin - I'm going to be optimistic and say he will be an excellent first pairing defender. Mean, intimidating, good skater and a good shot

Haag - Another #1 who may end up playing with Morin but probably not depending on Gostisbehere

Gostisbehere - boom or bust not much in between - no idea

Sanheim - way too young to tell so I'll trust Hextall and guess somewhere between good to really good

 

[The Rage Kage]

Centres who have put up more or similar PPG aged 23-26 to Giroux in the last 20 years (Italics indicates in an era roughly over 6GPG average over the 4 seasons, now scoring is at ~5.3-5.4 goals per game.):

Crosby: 1.47 PPG
Fedorov: 1.37 PPG
Sakic: 1.29 PPG
Thornton: 1.27 PPG
Lindros: 1.25 PPG
Forsberg: 1.23 PPG
Turgeon: 1.20 PPG
Malkin: 1.19 PPG
Roenick: 1.14 PPG
Modano: 1.08 PPG
Spezza: 1.08 PPG
Zhamnov: 1.07 PPG
Giroux: 1.05 PPG
Sundin: 1.04 PPG
Lecavalier: 1.02 PPG
Weight: 1.02 PPG
Allison: 1.00 PPG
Getzlaf: 0.99 PPG
Richards: 0.98 PPG
Yashin: 0.98 PPG
Zetterberg: 0.98 PPG
Staal: 0.96 PPG
Backstrom: 0.95 PPG
Brind'Amour: 0.95 PPG
Toews: 0.95 PPG
Kopitar: 0.91 PPG
Gomez: 0.86 PPG
H. Sedin: 0.83 PPG
Marleau: 0.82 PPG

If you era adjusted that I think the only players Giroux is behind are: Crosby, Fedorov, Sakic, Thornton, Lindros, Forsberg and Malkin. I briefly looked over the era adjusted individual years and they are the only players with clearly better 4 seasons offensively between that age. Turgeon, Modano, Sundin, Spezza and Roenick are just behind him at a brief glance.

A lot of the players around and behind Giroux on that list were or are still 1st line centres in their mid 30's.

Sundin was still a 1st liner aged 36.
Brind'Amour was still a 1st liner aged 36.
Modano was still a 1st liner aged 35.
Weight was still a 1st liner aged 34.
Roenick was still a 1st liner aged 34.
Marleau is still a 1st liner aged 34.
Zetterberg is still a 1st liner aged 33.
Zhamnov was still a 1st liner aged 33.
Sedin is still a 1st liner aged 33.
Yashin was still a 1st liner aged 33.
Spezza is still as 1st liner aged 31.
Turgeon was still a 1st liner aged 31.
Lecavalier was still a 1st liner aged 31.
Gomez was still a 1st liner aged 30.
Allison was still a 1st liner aged 30.


They are the players ~immediately behind Giroux in scoring age 23-26 over the last 20 years. (adjusted very unscientifically.)

The players ahead:

Sakic was still a 1st liner aged 39.
Fedorov was still a 1st liner aged 35.
Thornton is still a 1st liner aged 35.
Forsberg was still a 1st liner aged 34.
Lindros was still a 1st liner aged 30.

That is 5/19 who were not 1st liner by their age 33 season. (Spezza is still unknown.)

However jump to 34 and it is 7/17 who were not 1st liners. (Sedin, Zetterberg and Spezza unknown.)

35 and it is 10/16 who were not 1st liners. (Sedin, Marleau, Zetterberg and Spezza unknown.)

The odds are in Girouxs favour until he is ~34... after that he will very likely no longer be a 1st line player.

That's good, because when giroux is 34 the large majority of already drafted players for us could be entering their primes, so even if we have a lesser giroux, hopefully he has a strong supporting cast, also we could draft a franchise winger for him to help him produce through his later stage of his career