The Avalanche are what the Leafs and Oilers were supposed to become

[Number8]

Tavares, Matthews, Marner = 33.5 mil
MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog = 21 mil

Bingo. $12.5M will enable you to find a way to snag a decent defender or two. Or at least give you enough money to hire a consultant who will then tell you "stop loading up on forwards and draft or find some D, you stupid Dubas".

 

[Volica]

Toronto and Edmonton are built very differently, and there's different reasons why each club isn't close to how good the Avs are:

Edmonton: Unlike the Avs that have great role players, and depth, and actually have more than 2 Dmen that should be on any contenders top 4; Edmonton lacks anything beyond 97/29/25. Let's be honest, they were a pedestrian Mike Smith season away from likely battling out with Montreal and Calgary for who was going to be the bottom seed in the division. Any team that can't play 5on5 hockey will never have any success in the playoffs. Hence when the whistles went quiet, Edmonton folded.

Toronto: This is my best analogy for Toronto. Ever mention to a parent/grandparent that you like something?
"Yeah mom, I do like Kiwi's they're my favourite fruit."
Next thing you know it's like, "We got cake! It's Kiwi flavoured!" "Hey, check the fridge there's a surprise! <checks fridge to find a crate of Kiwi's>" "Look at this adorable pillow I find for you! It's in the shape of a Kiwi!"

It's like Kyle Dubas was told by someone they like Skill and Skating ability.
"hmm, my three highest paid guys are all skill guys. Know what, I know they like skill and speed, so may as well make #4 and #5 on the forward payroll all sort of offensive, skill guys. In fact, I want most of them to be a bit soft too. I want them to treat physicality as something they want nothing of, or something they can laugh at to meme."
"hmm. I've got Rielly playing some big minutes. I added Muzzin who doesn't really fit that mold of a skill guy, he's got an edge to him. Know what? TJ Brodie's available, and his heart's been questioned a lot by his fanbase before; no brainer here, he's got skill and can skate."

It's not so much a bad thing, but more of a same thing.

Like, look at the cup winners from the modern game (let's say 08 onwards). They had lots of skill, definitely. They had some great skaters, oh for sure. They all had guys who'd pay a pound of flesh to clear the zone after being hemmed in for 45 seconds. And I don't mean your #9-12 forward and #6D, it's got to be the big guys. It's got to be the guys who are going to play 20-25 minutes a night that saying 'f*** this, we're not losing; not a single inch given tonight, everyone pays the toll if they want an inch of ice."

Toronto doesn't have that. They haven't had it for a long time. You can't bring in guys like Thornton and Simmonds and expect these depth guys to elevate the rest of the team. Like to me, if Toronto had Mark Stone instead of let's say Marner, they'd have a date with Winnipeg right now.

 

[supsens]

Toronto and Edmonton are built very differently, and there's different reasons why each club isn't close to how good the Avs are:

Edmonton: Unlike the Avs that have great role players, and depth, and actually have more than 2 Dmen that should be on any contenders top 4; Edmonton lacks anything beyond 97/29/25. Let's be honest, they were a pedestrian Mike Smith season away from likely battling out with Montreal and Calgary for who was going to be the bottom seed in the division. Any team that can't play 5on5 hockey will never have any success in the playoffs. Hence when the whistles went quiet, Edmonton folded.

Toronto: This is my best analogy for Toronto. Ever mention to a parent/grandparent that you like something?
"Yeah mom, I do like Kiwi's they're my favourite fruit."
Next thing you know it's like, "We got cake! It's Kiwi flavoured!" "Hey, check the fridge there's a surprise! <checks fridge to find a crate of Kiwi's>" "Look at this adorable pillow I find for you! It's in the shape of a Kiwi!"

It's like Kyle Dubas was told by someone they like Skill and Skating ability.
"hmm, my three highest paid guys are all skill guys. Know what, I know they like skill and speed, so may as well make #4 and #5 on the forward payroll all sort of offensive, skill guys. In fact, I want most of them to be a bit soft too. I want them to treat physicality as something they want nothing of, or something they can laugh at to meme."
"hmm. I've got Rielly playing some big minutes. I added Muzzin who doesn't really fit that mold of a skill guy, he's got an edge to him. Know what? TJ Brodie's available, and his heart's been questioned a lot by his fanbase before; no brainer here, he's got skill and can skate."

It's not so much a bad thing, but more of a same thing.

Like, look at the cup winners from the modern game (let's say 08 onwards). They had lots of skill, definitely. They had some great skaters, oh for sure. They all had guys who'd pay a pound of flesh to clear the zone after being hemmed in for 45 seconds. And I don't mean your #9-12 forward and #6D, it's got to be the big guys. It's got to be the guys who are going to play 20-25 minutes a night that saying 'f*** this, we're not losing; not a single inch given tonight, everyone pays the toll if they want an inch of ice."

Toronto doesn't have that. They haven't had it for a long time. You can't bring in guys like Thornton and Simmonds and expect these depth guys to elevate the rest of the team. Like to me, if Toronto had Mark Stone instead of let's say Marner, they'd have a date with Winnipeg right now.

Mark stone has 5 points in 8 games and zero points in his last three he is playing just as bad as Marner

 

[Gurglesons]

Toronto and Edmonton are built very differently, and there's different reasons why each club isn't close to how good the Avs are:

Edmonton: Unlike the Avs that have great role players, and depth, and actually have more than 2 Dmen that should be on any contenders top 4; Edmonton lacks anything beyond 97/29/25. Let's be honest, they were a pedestrian Mike Smith season away from likely battling out with Montreal and Calgary for who was going to be the bottom seed in the division. Any team that can't play 5on5 hockey will never have any success in the playoffs. Hence when the whistles went quiet, Edmonton folded.

Toronto: This is my best analogy for Toronto. Ever mention to a parent/grandparent that you like something?
"Yeah mom, I do like Kiwi's they're my favourite fruit."
Next thing you know it's like, "We got cake! It's Kiwi flavoured!" "Hey, check the fridge there's a surprise! <checks fridge to find a crate of Kiwi's>" "Look at this adorable pillow I find for you! It's in the shape of a Kiwi!"

It's like Kyle Dubas was told by someone they like Skill and Skating ability.
"hmm, my three highest paid guys are all skill guys. Know what, I know they like skill and speed, so may as well make #4 and #5 on the forward payroll all sort of offensive, skill guys. In fact, I want most of them to be a bit soft too. I want them to treat physicality as something they want nothing of, or something they can laugh at to meme."
"hmm. I've got Rielly playing some big minutes. I added Muzzin who doesn't really fit that mold of a skill guy, he's got an edge to him. Know what? TJ Brodie's available, and his heart's been questioned a lot by his fanbase before; no brainer here, he's got skill and can skate."

It's not so much a bad thing, but more of a same thing.

Like, look at the cup winners from the modern game (let's say 08 onwards). They had lots of skill, definitely. They had some great skaters, oh for sure. They all had guys who'd pay a pound of flesh to clear the zone after being hemmed in for 45 seconds. And I don't mean your #9-12 forward and #6D, it's got to be the big guys. It's got to be the guys who are going to play 20-25 minutes a night that saying 'f*** this, we're not losing; not a single inch given tonight, everyone pays the toll if they want an inch of ice."

Toronto doesn't have that. They haven't had it for a long time. You can't bring in guys like Thornton and Simmonds and expect these depth guys to elevate the rest of the team. Like to me, if Toronto had Mark Stone instead of let's say Marner, they'd have a date with Winnipeg right now.

Teams are successful by sticking to an identity. Tampa Bay got similar complaints and they stuck with their method and won a cup with their core.

 

[Kranix]

It took Sakic 7 years to get them to this point.

 

[Belgican]

Avs have Joe Sakic, who has a hockey vision and a plan. When Roy left, he got Bednar who shares his hockey vision.

Sakic had a core with McK, Landy and EJ. He also had some assets in Duchene, ROR and Barrie. Duchene became Girard, ROR got Compher and Zadarov, who became Saad. Barrie got Kadri.

The Avs drafted Rantanen, Makar, Jost and Timmins.

And they traded some underwhelming players from Washington for picks in Grubauer and Burakovsky, and Graves from the NYR. They also signed some other underwhelming cheap UFA’s in Bellemare, Nikushkin, Donskoi, Calvert and O’Connor. And they used Isles cap problems to land Toews.

I think you got most of the Avs lineup here :

Landy - MacK - Rantanen
Saad - Jost - Nikushkin
Burakovsky - Compher - Donskoi
O’Connor - Bellemare - Calvert

LOC and Calvert are injured but you saw Newhook and Ranta in game one against Vegas, then you have also Soderberg and Nemeth who they got at the trade deadline for low picks.

Toews - Makar
Graves - Girard
Nemeth - Timmins

Note that I didn’t even included Kadri, Newhook, Ranta, Byram and EJ in the lineup.

 

[CamPopplestone]

It's also the variety in their core. You have one of the best players in the game in MacKinnon, and him, Rantenen and Landeskog are all way different players that all bring totally different elements to the table. They have one of the best young defenseman in the league, plus a very deep defense. Great cap management, players bought In to a team first mentality.

They haven't been shy in moving on from players like Barrie and Duchene who were good for them, but they'd have been stuck in a really bad contract and they had internal options to replace him. And also getting strong young assets back for them.

And from my outside fan perspective it never seemed like they tanked. They just really, really sucked for a few years. But it never felt like that team embraced the tank or the losing culture in the same way other teams did.

 

[shadow1]

I am seeing the narrative in this thread that Colorado is "ahead" of Edmonton and Toronto in their rebuild and I just don't agree.

From the 2006 lockout through 2017, all three teams in question were basically mediocre junk. The trio each tried rebuilding around a cornerstone player (Duchene/Hall/Kessel) and the final products were complete disasters.

But Edmonton and Toronto both made the playoffs in 2016-2017 (with Edmonton winning a playoff series), whereas Colorado lost 60 games that season. The Avalanche made it back to the playoffs in 2017-2018 and hasn't missed since. So I don't know how I can be objectively said that Colorado is just "ahead of schedule".

 

[Sweetpotato]

Wait, so the Leafs that finished higher than the Oilers and won more playoff games (with an $11M player injured 9 mins into the series) are behind the Oilers?

Probably 5 years ahead of Buffalo and 7 ahead of Edmonton.

How many series have you won and when's the last one?

 

[Volica]

Teams are successful by sticking to an identity. Tampa Bay got similar complaints and they stuck with their method and won a cup with their core.

Tampa also has the best goalie, defenceman and RW on the planet.
And one of the most versatile top 9's in the NHL.

They've also been a +/- 100 point NHL team for 8 years now, it took them 7 years to put the recipe together.

 

[Gurglesons]

Tampa also has the best goalie, defenceman and RW on the planet.
And one of the most versatile top 9's in the NHL.

They've also been a +/- 100 point NHL team for 8 years now, it took them 7 years to put the recipe together.

So, the solution is for Toronto move out the leading goalscorer or one of the best RWs in the league?

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I am seeing the narrative in this thread that Colorado is "ahead" of Edmonton and Toronto in their rebuild and I just don't agree.

From the 2006 lockout through 2017, all three teams in question were basically mediocre junk. The trio each tried rebuilding around a cornerstone player (Duchene/Hall/Kessel) and the final products were complete disasters.

But Edmonton and Toronto both made the playoffs in 2016-2017 (with Edmonton winning a playoff series), whereas Colorado lost 60 games that season. The Avalanche made it back to the playoffs in 2017-2018 and hasn't missed since. So I don't know how I can be objectively said that Colorado is just "ahead of schedule".

There's no schedule. You either get there or you don't. We haven't even gotten there yet (i.e. win the cup), but its promising. But the Avs have consistently in the past 3-4 years made smart moves and in terms of how likely the team will stay good for a long time, the Avs are way ahead of Oilers and leafs.

 

[TLEH]

The Duchene trade was obviously a good one, but at the end of the day there is a lot of luck involved here. They didn't win anything and Mack didn't blow up until after his deal. Could be looking at a lot different story if they were slightly more accomplished/Mack was much better earlier.

Toews trade also good, draft of Makar was a good choice. Those aren't luck, but being able to trade for Toews because Mack makes peanuts is sort of luck.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

So, the solution is for Toronto move out the leading goalscorer or one of the best RWs in the league?

Get them to be cheaper so you can ice a better team. Can't do that? Too bad, you eff'd up.

 

[koyvoo]

The avalanche didn’t hand over their GM position to a teenager who really doesn’t understand hockey in terms of the nuances that happen on the ice.

The avalanche also don’t have their core superstars made up of spineless pretenders.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Avalanche have nailed drafting, trades and free agency over the last handful of years. We've seen their evolution over the last 3 seasons and they are at peak form right now.

Not to mention trading for Sadd, Grubauer, Graves, Toews, Nemeth, etc. With the exception of Zadorov for Sadd, none of the other trades subtracted from their NHL roster.

Donskoi and PEB are also good players. he'll even Calvert and Cole were not bad signings if not for injuries. Nemeth was also useful. The Avs have the best pro scouts in the league. But to maintain the success our drafting needs to be good beyond the first round like tampa.

 

[qwerty]

To put it succinctly, the Avalanche have a really well built team with depth all over their line up and stars that elevate their play in the playoffs. The Oilers and Leafs on the other hand are way too top heavy, especially the Oilers who appear to have little depth in comparison and rely on just a handful of guys to win a team game every night. So if McDavid or Draisaitl's games drop off even a little bit, their margin for victory decreases considerably.

The Leafs are little bit different. Their stars aren't quite as good as the Oilers, but they have surprisingly good depth everywhere in the line up and the depth players even showed up in the playoffs. Unlike Colorado though, the high priced Toronto superstars do not elevate their games in the playoffs, so they're left winning games when other lines can step and make up the difference. I actually don't think the Leafs are that far away from being a top contending team, I'm just not sure they have enough will over skill types.

Also, every little mistake seems to haunt them too which seems to be magnified in that Toronto pressure cooker. Off the top of my head, I think Galchenyuk, Dermott, Sandin, Marner, Gardiner, Andersen, Kadri, Reimer all seem to have made really bad plays/performances that have killed this team in the playoffs. Please add more if I'm missing something. The hockey gods have certainly been unforgiving to the Leafs.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Get them to be cheaper so you can ice a better team. Can't do that? Too bad, you eff'd up.

Auston Matthews was always going to get the contract he got (AAV). 1st line Center, the top goal scorer in the league, the value he had on turning Toronto around (to losing in the 1st round ever year, yes). The guy lit the league up the second he came into it. I'd think lots of teams would still sign him to the contract he inked right now if they could.

Marner on the other hand, Leafs and Dubas lost big time. I don't think most teams would even touch Marner at the number he's signed at now.

MacKinnon was pure luck. He went from 50 point player to 100 point player, many had written him off, he signed the contract as a 50 point player when the Avs weren't competitive.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Auston Matthews was always going to get the contract he got. 1st line Center, the top goal scorer in the league, the value he had on turning Toronto around (to losing in the 1st round ever year, yes). The guy lit the league up the second he came into it. I'd think lots of teams would still sign him to the contract he inked right now if they could.

Marner on the other hand, Leafs and Dubas lost big time. I don't think most teams would even touch Marner at the number he's signed at now.

MacKinnon was pure luck. He went from 50 point player to 100 point player, many had written him off, he signed the contract as a 50 point player when the Avs weren't competitive.

Luck? A worse GM could have easily signed him to a bridge and look like an idiot. Buying low and selling high (Duchene) is the hall mark of a GM that adds value.

 

[shadow1]

In my opinion...

• The Leafs were on the right track, but screwed up by trying to go with the Stars & Scrubs model. They're a really good team on paper but something needs to be done after their fifth consecutive first round exit.
• I feel bad for Edmonton because Ken Holland has no clue what he's doing, nor did Peter Chiarelli before him. Holland's done absolutely nothing to make the team better because he doesn't know how. I'm just wondering how many more Red Wings players he's going to try to acquire (I wonder what Draper and Maltby are up to these days?)

Regarding the Avalanche, they're good now because after Roy left in 2016, Sakic began looking at the big picture. He began targeting off-brand guys - such as Burakovsky, Graves, Nichushkin, and Toews - who fit the team's identity of youth and speed, and those players have seen their careers go to the next level in Colorado.

Furthermore the Avs haven't hurt themselves in free agency. Over the last four off-seasons, the biggest UFA fish the Avs landed was Ian Cole (3 x $4.25). It has been conservative and entails exclusively adding around the edges (Bellemare, Calvert, Cole, Donskoi).

Obviously not every move he's made has been a home run, but the process is solid.

 

[Volica]

So, the solution is for Toronto move out the leading goalscorer or one of the best RWs in the league?

No. Never said it was.
In reality, if you have Matthews and he's as good as he's made out to be; does he need a 11 million dollar RW to elevate him?
If you have one of the best RW's in the game, does he need a 12 million dollar, or 11 million dollar centre to play with him?
If you have three guys making over 10 million dollars who are 'among the best' at their position in the game, do you need another 7 million dollar forward to play along with them?

The reality/solution is to adjust this group of 4. Here's some hard facts. There's 1 player making 10 million dollars left in the playoffs. He's the guy who just bounced Toronto.
The rest of the teams. Zero.
Toronto? Three.

It's really hard to build a competitor when you tie up that much cap on similar players.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Luck? A worse GM could have easily signed him to a bridge and look like an idiot. Buying low and selling high is the hall mark of a GM that adds value.

Ill give you that. I meant moreso that MacKinnon happened to bloom late. I don't think there was any chance any GM could have gotten Matthews at a number like MacKinnon based on how good of a goal scorer he was early in his careeer.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Tavares, Matthews, Marner = 33.5 mil
MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog = 21 mil

The problem in Edmonton is that there is no third player to put on that list

 

[GirardSpinorama]

In my opinion...

• The Leafs were on the right track, but screwed up by trying to go with the Stars & Scrubs model. They're a really good team on paper but something needs to be done after their fifth consecutive first round exit.
• I feel bad for Edmonton because Ken Holland has no clue what he's doing, nor did Peter Chiarelli before him. Holland's done absolutely nothing to make the team better because he doesn't know how. I'm just wondering how many more Red Wings players he's going to try to acquire (I wonder what Draper and Maltby are up to these days?)

Regarding the Avalanche, they're good now because after Roy left in 2016, Sakic began looking at the big picture. He began targeting off-brand guys - such as Burakovsky, Graves, Nichushkin, and Toews - who fit the team's identity of youth and speed, and those players have seen their careers go to the next level in Colorado.

Furthermore the Avs haven't hurt themselves in free agency. Over the last four off-seasons, the biggest UFA fish the Avs landed was Ian Cole (3 x $4.25). It has been conservative and entails exclusively adding around the edges (Bellemare, Calvert, Cole, Donskoi).

Obviously not every move he's made has been a home run, but the process is solid.

Sakic had a process. Dubas only talks about a process. Dubas is a typical MBA business type He's way less analytical than he appears. Well spoken and good PR guy. Pleases his bosses (Shanahan) but no guts. We have our boy genius McFarland in the background doing actual analytics while Sakic has the clut to get things done in negotiations and trades.

Shanahan could have done that with a Lou and shadow genius GM tandem. He didn't. He got sold on the idea that Dubas is the next Epstein.

 

[Gurglesons]

No. Never said it was.
In reality, if you have Matthews and he's as good as he's made out to be; does he need a 11 million dollar RW to elevate him?
If you have one of the best RW's in the game, does he need a 12 million dollar, or 11 million dollar centre to play with him?
If you have three guys making over 10 million dollars who are 'among the best' at their position in the game, do you need another 7 million dollar forward to play along with them?

The reality/solution is to adjust this group of 4. Here's some hard facts. There's 1 player making 10 million dollars left in the playoffs. He's the guy who just bounced Toronto.
The rest of the teams. Zero.
Toronto? Three.

It's really hard to build a competitor when you tie up that much cap on similar players.

I dunno. But by your own admission the Avs are basically f***ed next year if they sign Landeskog right? Unless for some reason he takes an absolute sweetheart deal.

These are the same stupid complaints people made about Pittsburgh and Washington from 2010 - 2015 while the Hawks were winning cups and then PIT and WAS won three straight cups.

You don't lose playoff chances by paying your best players the highest salaries.