News Article: The Athletic on Detroit's "Contract Efficiency"

[The Zetterberg Era]

We are ranked dead last. Also Dom included a fascinating comment that Abdelkader actually has the second worst contract in the league as many of us stunned he wasn't in the top 10 said in that thread.

So I guess we were right to disagree.

 

[Hockeyville19Calumet]

Yes, show me why its a bad contract. Was he overpaid? Maybe. But by how much? It's not like he was a bad player. He had cold stints after injuries but overall was pretty good. A career 2.55 GAA and .914 SV% is worth 5.4 mil imo. It was what, his 4th contract when it became 5.4 mil? How many other goalies are going to put up better numbers on their 4th contract for under 5.4?

OK here you go. All goalies with 20 or more games played:

2014-2015 Save Pct 35th GAA 25th
2015-2016 Save Pct 50th GAA Not in the top 50
2016-2017 Save Pct 3rd GAA 5th (note he played only 26 games)
2017-2018 Save Pct 35th GAA 36th
2018-2019 Save Pct 34th GAA 48th

Not great numbers per dollar. This whole post is about contract value, right?

 

[Hammettf2b]

OK here you go. All goalies with 20 or more games played:

2014-2015 Save Pct 35th GAA 25th
2015-2016 Save Pct 50th GAA Not in the top 50
2016-2017 Save Pct 3rd GAA 5th (note he played only 26 games)
2017-2018 Save Pct 35th GAA 36th
2018-2019 Save Pct 34th GAA 48th

Not great numbers per dollar. This whole post is about contract value, right?

So how much money should he have been making then?

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Imagine an expanded core surrounding picks like Hronek/Cholo if the team's assets were used in legit rebuilding earlier in the process rather than rentals making it into the playoffs for no real reason other than to do it. Instead, we don't have those futures we could have had with those opportunities, and we still have the contracts on the books from these very moves themselves interfering with the actual rebuild process. Even if these picks turn out as much as we hope it's going to be a hard sell to wash that out of the legacy.

I don't know you managed to whitewash a sure fire HHOF builder who played a part in four cups, six finals appearances, the third longest playoff streak in league history and the most wins over a 25 year period all because he didn't muscle guys out two years earlier against his owners wishes. You can frame things however you want is sort of that lesson.

Also the bad contracts on the books forced the rock bottom that is now happening approach many championed. Again an unintended consequence, but this does allows us the foundational long process rebuild people wanted. It's a double edged sword you cannot simply look at the whatever side you choose. These decisions are impacted by what came before, what came after and a great deal of luck. They have a large scope. Like I said earlier my biggest take when looking at this is our capologist isn't very good at his job and he is still in that role, but now advising Yzerman. Hopefully he questions Martin's term and salary figures closer. But I remain extremely concerned there.

 

[Retire91]

It's subtle but I don't like to wash over that this rebuild happened because the team eventually got so bad they had no other option, not voluntarily when it would have made sense and likely had quicker meaningful impact without as far of a fall. That is a fact the number of cups in yesteryear's trophy case can't change. Saying it should be happy times now because the team is so terrible a rebuild is happening because nothing else possibly could be doesn't do any justice to those calling for a rebuild since before Daytsuk left. The 5-6 WTF offseasons still happened and still have their mark on the team this offseason.

For Martin totally on board with you. I kinda wish the organization would have switched out up and down, especially anyone that had crunching critical numbers responsibility.

 

[Hockeyville19Calumet]

So how much money should he have been making then?

NOT $5.4 M

 

[Hammettf2b]

NOT $5.4 M

Again, if he was not worth that contract. What money makes him worth it?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

The GM is the front man and ultimately lives with it and the scrutiny. But the person that recommended the salary figure and contract structure is Ryan Martin. He is still here and it does concern me when we discuss things like this. Holland will be the primary target in this thread, Yzerman will be demanded as the savior that addresses it. But in all the shifting outside of maybe our pro scouting our largest problem spot remains in the front office as far as I am concerned. Sorry if I am becoming a broken record on it.

Honestly, how do you know what Ryan Martin recommended or how information or instructions flowed between Holland and Martin? Just because someone is paid to dispense advice does not mean their employer or client will follow it.

Ryan Martin is not the GM of the Redwings. Ryan Martin did not extend the contracts so many find to be objectionable.

 

[Hen Kolland]

This entire article kind of stunk like common sense, and I actually really didn't enjoy it. Usually I find Dom's work to be interesting, but in the first couple write ups that I read through it felt like all he was accomplishing was stating blatantly obvious information. I got the impression that the results were showing: the best players in hockey generally carry the most value and are easier to justify contracts. It's super evident when you look at the Wings. The only contracts that carry positive value were Larkin, AA, Mantha, and Bertuzzi, who are largely the only impact players from a scoring perspective.

If you have the assumption that the best teams have the best players, and the best players generally have the most "valuable" contracts, then you can reasonably assume that the best teams have the best contracts.

You can pull this together yourself. All I did was pull the final standings off the NHL website in 2019, and manually entered the "contract efficiency" rank from Dom's article and put together a chart in Excel. I had a scatter chart plotted initially (like some other charts you've undoubtedly seen) with a trend line; the plot could have been split into quadrants to show "overachievers", "underachievers", and both the bad teams with bad contracts and good teams with good contracts. The pitfall was the data labels were pretty impossible to show without making it painful to view, so I changed it to a column chart so you can see the team names associated. The X-Axis is sorted from last place to first place (from left to right) and the rankings are represented by the bars. I still included the trend line which kind of confirms what I'm getting at when I mentioned the good teams have good players with "good" contracts.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Again, if he was not worth that contract. What money makes him worth it?

Taking into account his current play, about $650k. The price of an career AHLer in a 4th line role.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Honestly, how do you know what Ryan Martin recommended or how information or instructions flowed between Holland and Martin? Just because someone is paid to dispense advice does not mean their employer or client will follow it.

Ryan Martin is not the GM of the Redwings. Ryan Martin did not extend the contracts so many find to be objectionable.

On the same premeciss the GM does what the owner says.

Ryan Martin's job is to find contractual comparables and drill down term pricing and length projections. This along with running the Griffins is what they say his role is. Did Holland not listen to him? Not from what I have heard but maybe some of these fall under that explanation. Holland had to and Yzerman will have to consult the same guy.

I mean maybe Holland constantly argued for more term and Martin struggles to build a deal with more length. He was in these discussions and frankly doesn't have a title that would dictate him not being taken seriously nor have I heard that explanation around the organization.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

So again, we are concerning ourselves with not having enough cap space so that we can acquire more bad hockey players and hypothetical future hockey players?

Y'all worry way too much about that aspect and not enough about just getting good players

And how do you get good players? One way is from picks or prospects.

How do you get more picks or prospects? One way is by taking on bad contracts from other teams and getting picks and/or prospects in return.

So again, we're concerning ourselves with the exact same thing you say we should worry about. Getting good players.

 

[obey86]

Don't really need statistics to show this team has bad contracts. Any time you have a GM that was willing to trade away picks (when you should be rebuilding) to remove only 1 year of 7 million in cap on your non-contending team so you can make room for long term mediocrity as a replacement, you are going to have bad contracts. The only reason its still a topic though is those bad contracts crowded out pieces that might have been nice to still have or have traded for futures and many of these terrible contracts are still on the books handcuffing the process.

When did the Red Wings trade away picks to move a contract?

How are the current terrible contracts handcuffing the process of taking on pieces for futures? We had plenty of cap space this offseason and even the great Yzerman couldn't get us any futures with that cap space.

 

[ricky0034]

So again, we are concerning ourselves with not having enough cap space so that we can acquire more bad hockey players and hypothetical future hockey players?

Y'all worry way too much about that aspect and not enough about just getting good players

this is like saying people worry way too much about getting a good job and not enough about just making money

"hypothetical future hockey players" don't count as getting good players? I guess Teuvo Teravainen doesn't exist

there's also higher draft picks which is another way to get good players,if the Wings don't spend to the cap just because they can in 2017 for example there's a decent chance they end up with Pettersson instead of Rasmussen

or does that not count either?

 

[chances14]

I knew right away when I saw the article headline on the athletic that detroit would be ranked last.

 

[vladdy16]

this is like saying people worry way too much about getting a good job and not enough about just making money

"hypothetical future hockey players" don't count as getting good players? I guess Teuvo Teravainen doesn't exist

there's also higher draft picks which is another way to get good players,if the Wings don't spend to the cap just because they can in 2017 for example there's a decent chance they end up with Pettersson instead of Rasmussen

or does that not count either?

None of it counts. It's hypothetical, anecdotal, subjective conjecture.

I could make up a scenario where Larkin doesn't sign a long term, cap friendly extension if the Wings didnt spend to the cap in an effort to not totally bottom out.

Or we missed out on Cholowski and Hronekss accelerated development because witkowski and Jensen were holding back the top 4.

Etc. Etc. Etc.

The Wings have tons of picks, a bunch of prospects, and a handful of young guns. Their cap flexibility moving forward is a 99 out of 100. By accident or on purpose, we've moved on from phase 1 rebuild in as good a spot as could be hoped.

What is even the point of this discussion? Sounds like a topic for Oilers fans to discuss.

 

[Bench]

Taking into account his current play, about $650k. The price of an career AHLer in a 4th line role.

Putting Jimmy Howard on the 4th line is just the kind of outside the box thinking we need to jumpstart the rebuild.

 

[kliq]

OK here you go. All goalies with 20 or more games played:

2014-2015 Save Pct 35th GAA 25th
2015-2016 Save Pct 50th GAA Not in the top 50
2016-2017 Save Pct 3rd GAA 5th (note he played only 26 games)
2017-2018 Save Pct 35th GAA 36th
2018-2019 Save Pct 34th GAA 48th

Not great numbers per dollar. This whole post is about contract value, right?

Where does he rank if you eliminate goalies that played under 40 games?

 

[Wyzer Plan]

OK here you go. All goalies with 20 or more games played:

2014-2015 Save Pct 35th GAA 25th
2015-2016 Save Pct 50th GAA Not in the top 50
2016-2017 Save Pct 3rd GAA 5th (note he played only 26 games)
2017-2018 Save Pct 35th GAA 36th
2018-2019 Save Pct 34th GAA 48th

Not great numbers per dollar. This whole post is about contract value, right?

How many goalies does this 20 or more games played include? I bet the number is well over 100.

Is Jimmy a perennial contender for the Vezina? No. Is he a solid starting goalie? Absolutely. There are goalies getting paid 10 million a year. 5 millions is a bargain for a proven veteran goalie with his numbers.

 

[Retire91]

When did the Red Wings trade away picks to move a contract?

How are the current terrible contracts handcuffing the process of taking on pieces for futures? We had plenty of cap space this offseason and even the great Yzerman couldn't get us any futures with that cap space.

Fair enough my memory misrepresented the move for a moment, it wasn't a traded pick but rather moving down, still for a team badly needing a rebuild moving down in the draft is a questionable tactic when the gain is to get rid of a contract you don't need to get rid of. Picking up a second rounder is not bad but on a rebuilding team who's GM trades second rounders like candy for rentals to support doomed playoff appearances isn't too exciting. But just as glad as everyone that its working out.

To your second point you can't utilize cap space you don't have, so why not save it for a later date instead of use it up on filler. I disagree with Yzerman on that count. Leave the cap space open and be the league's mortgage lender when someone gets desperate, and they will, clean up. But instead, Flippula....

 

[lomekian]

The excerpts from this article make it appear like opinion masquerading as science. It overcooks and inflates an obvious agreed general viewpoint without adequately contextualising.

Detroit has a number of bad contracts. Most will be gone soon. Some of the players in question are exposed by the weakness of linemates and the performance impact of an endless revolving door of injuries.

The season just gone and in all likelihood the season to come are clearly the bottom of the parabola. Given the route DRW took to this point, you'd expect a number of poor value contracts, particularly as, unlike other teams, our strategy of late has been to sell assets and wait out bad contracts. Easy to make your contract situation look better if you are willing to spend assets to do so. Even if Yzerman literally does nothing over the next 3 years bar ELC draft picks, we will be on a very different place on this chart by then

 

[odin1981]

When did the Red Wings trade away picks to move a contract?

How are the current terrible contracts handcuffing the process of taking on pieces for futures? We had plenty of cap space this offseason and even the great Yzerman couldn't get us any futures with that cap space.

Datsyuk's last year to Phoenix.

 

[Dotter]

If Wings were on a rocket ship to compete for a Stanley Cup in the next 3 or 4 years, then yeah those contracts would really sting.

Since we're rebuilding and need to lose for Hughes Lafreniere, those contracts don't sting. They help.

 

[saska sault]

All those bad contracts and all off the books soon. We got youth, picks, the rebuilding mentality, a great mind in the GM chair... All things pointing to a fun future in Detroit. Things may have sucked for a few years after 25 years of success but if thats the next cycle. Sign me up yesteday.

 

[Hockeyville19Calumet]

How many goalies does this 20 or more games played include? I bet the number is well over 100.

Is Jimmy a perennial contender for the Vezina? No. Is he a solid starting goalie? Absolutely. There are goalies getting paid 10 million a year. 5 millions is a bargain for a proven veteran goalie with his numbers.

Proven? Proven extremely inconsistent?