News Article: The Athletic on Detroit's "Contract Efficiency"

[Hockeyville19Calumet]

All I've been saying is Howard has a bad contract and adds to the pain.

 

[Henkka]

All I've been saying is Howard has a bad contract and adds to the pain.

4M for a half-decent starter is just a normal deal. Not good, or not a bad deal.

 

[Bench]

Osgood has been underappreciated by hockey fans for awhile. From 92/93 to 99/00 he was 7th in wins, 6th in sv%, and 5th in shutouts. Part of that, clearly, goes to being on some really good teams. But his sv% was the same as Vanbiesbrouk and Belfour's, while being better than Joseph and Richter's. If he didn't have to go against Roy every playoff run, I think his shortcomings wouldn't have been nearly as remarked upon.

There was always the perception that while Osgood was reliable and steady, he didn't have the ability to steal games the way the aforementioned goalies did. There were simply games Belfour was unbeatable, for example, and the best player on the ice. How many times can we say that about Osgood?

It's an argument that comes up often in other sports, too. Consistent volume stats versus higher, elite peaks.

If you look at just the numbers, Osgood is a Hall of Fame goalie. I've made that argument here before. But you'll be hard pressed to ever say he was the best goalie any given year, or even top 3. It's an interesting debate.

 

[Retire91]

The redwings philosophy was always to have a good goalie behind a great team. Not a great goalie, not an elite goalie, just a good goalie that could be consistent. I think Howard's story is what happens to a good goalie when the wheels fall off and a GM keeps his foot on the gas. The wings ran with some of the best defense in the league and some of the best defensive forwards in front of them prior to most of Howard's career. I think Howard is the worst of the starting goalies to be on the wings since Vernon but if you put Howard behind the teams Vernon and Osgood played behind would he have had the issues we have seen?

I just wish Holland would have traded him when it seemed possible. He should have been traded and went all in to see what we had with Mrazek sink or swim. If it doesn't work figure something else out but you would no longer have a bloated goalie contract on the book with no payoff for having it. That would have been the right move for a rebuilding team.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Anyway, Jimmy "Mr October" Howard could have been shopped, like Holland promised Mrazek, any of the last 4 years.

Please list a source that says Holland "promised" Mrazek he would move Howard. There was plenty out there from HSJ and Kahn that said Holland would "try" to move him, but without guarantee. Just because there wasn't juicy stories about teams wanting to bring in Howard, doesn't mean Holland didn't try to move him.

And even if he did, poor Petr should've put Howard out of the picture with his play on the ice if he really felt Howard needed to be gone. However, he didn't do that, other than a brief instance:

-14/15: Howard was going to be difficult to move with so much term left, but the team (which was still making the playoffs) probably wasn't going to gamble on a rookie goalie that hadn't put in a full NHL season yet.
-2015 Offseason: After just being overtaken by a rookie and having 4 years left, Howard was probably going to be hard to move.
-15/16: Mrazek had Howard firmly in the rearview mirror, then absolutely shit the bed for the last 1/4 of the season (.886 and pulled in 3 of 14 starts), loses the starting job back to Howard (who isn't great but helps them hang onto playoff hopes) and then eventually gets back in the playoffs
-2016 offseason: Again, term and recent outing will make Howard hard to deal. Despite the inconsistent season, Mrazek and his agent want $5M a season, but settle for $4M prior to arbitration
-16/17: Mrazek starts the year as the starting goalie (9 of the first 12 starts). He's a disaster in the last 3 of those (pulled in one, 12GA and .85 altogether, so Blashill turns to Howard (and if hypothetically Howard was gone, it would've been whoever else was there). Howard gets hurt for a couple weeks and then has some bad outings after briefly returning, and Mrazek isn't any better. Howard then goes down longterm, where the net is now Mrazek's. He quickly loses it to Jared Coreau... and goes .881 for the first month Howard is gone. He platoons with Howard for the last month of the year, where Howard out plays him.
-2017 Offseason: The expansion draft probably caused the Red Wings FO to make an earlier decision on Mrazek's future in the organization and probably decided then that they were unlikely to give him the $4.15M. Even with Mrazek slappies thinking it would be impossible for Vegas to pass up a goalie with such amazing upside, even if just to deal him to another club for some assets, they went with Tomas Nosek...
-17/18: For the first half of the year, other than a shutout against the Oilers, he does nothing notable. Eventually Howard struggles and Mrazek gets more work, but that only makes him more valuable as a rental. He then goes to Philly where, like Howards injury the previous season, the net is 100% his. He's good for his first 3 starts (where some of his apologists lambast Holland for giving up on him LOL) and then he is absolute (Pe)TRASH. He gets pushed aside by Alex Lyon for a few games, and the Flyers can't wait to get Elliot or Neuvirth back.
2018 offseason: With no surprise at all, Mrazek doesn't get qualified and hits the UFA market.

And he still has yet to put in a completely good season.... For Carolina, he had a not so great start, and then was nothing special for about two months after his injury, then goes on a hot streak for the last two months of the year before he goes a stellar .899 in a 7 game 1st round victory over the Caps.

There's a reason he's only making $125K more per season than Bernier, and getting rid of Howard as Petr was apparently promised wasn't going to change that. I can't believe this is still an argument here....

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Please list a source that says Holland "promised" Mrazek he would move Howard. There was plenty out there from HSJ and Kahn that said Holland would "try" to move him, but without guarantee. Just because there wasn't juicy stories about teams wanting to bring in Howard, doesn't mean Holland didn't try to move him.

And even if he did, poor Petr should've put Howard out of the picture with his play on the ice if he really felt Howard needed to be gone. However, he didn't do that, other than a brief instance:

-14/15: Howard was going to be difficult to move with so much term left, but the team (which was still making the playoffs) probably wasn't going to gamble on a rookie goalie that hadn't put in a full NHL season yet.
-2015 Offseason: After just being overtaken by a rookie and having 4 years left, Howard was probably going to be hard to move.
-15/16: Mrazek had Howard firmly in the rearview mirror, then absolutely **** the bed for the last 1/4 of the season (.886 and pulled in 3 of 14 starts), loses the starting job back to Howard (who isn't great but helps them hang onto playoff hopes) and then eventually gets back in the playoffs
-2016 offseason: Again, term and recent outing will make Howard hard to deal. Despite the inconsistent season, Mrazek and his agent want $5M a season, but settle for $4M prior to arbitration
-16/17: Mrazek starts the year as the starting goalie (9 of the first 12 starts). He's a disaster in the last 3 of those (pulled in one, 12GA and .85 altogether, so Blashill turns to Howard (and if hypothetically Howard was gone, it would've been whoever else was there). Howard gets hurt for a couple weeks and then has some bad outings after briefly returning, and Mrazek isn't any better. Howard then goes down longterm, where the net is now Mrazek's. He quickly loses it to Jared Coreau... and goes .881 for the first month Howard is gone. He platoons with Howard for the last month of the year, where Howard out plays him.
-2017 Offseason: The expansion draft probably caused the Red Wings FO to make an earlier decision on Mrazek's future in the organization and probably decided then that they were unlikely to give him the $4.15M. Even with Mrazek slappies thinking it would be impossible for Vegas to pass up a goalie with such amazing upside, even if just to deal him to another club for some assets, they went with Tomas Nosek...
-17/18: For the first half of the year, other than a shutout against the Oilers, he does nothing notable. Eventually Howard struggles and Mrazek gets more work, but that only makes him more valuable as a rental. He then goes to Philly where, like Howards injury the previous season, the net is 100% his. He's good for his first 3 starts (where some of his apologists lambast Holland for giving up on him LOL) and then he is absolute (Pe)TRASH. He gets pushed aside by Alex Lyon for a few games, and the Flyers can't wait to get Elliot or Neuvirth back.
2018 offseason: With no surprise at all, Mrazek doesn't get qualified and hits the UFA market.

And he still has yet to put in a completely good season.... For Carolina, he had a not so great start, and then was nothing special for about two months after his injury, then goes on a hot streak for the last two months of the year before he goes a stellar .899 in a 7 game 1st round victory over the Caps.

There's a reason he's only making $125K more per season than Bernier, and getting rid of Howard as Petr was apparently promised wasn't going to change that. I can't believe this is still an argument here....

Nice write-up...Serious question, how do you remember all of this? (I can barely remember what I ate for lunch or where I parked my car). Gingko Biloba?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Nice write-up...Serious question, how do you remember all of this? (I can barely remember what I ate for lunch or where I parked my car). Gingko Biloba?

A lot of that is Hockey Reference. It isn't remembered. Not the stats, anyway.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Nice write-up...Serious question, how do you remember all of this? (I can barely remember what I ate for lunch or where I parked my car). Gingko Biloba?

Probably typed all or pieces of it numerous times during the great Howard Mrazek wars of 2015-2018 here and various other Red Wings related internet places. Usually have to cheat and check some game log places to get exact numbers, though.

But otherwise yea, can't remember if I took my meds this morning

 

[ShelbyZ]

A lot of that is Hockey Reference. It isn't remembered. Not the stats, anyway.

For goalie stuff, this one's nice too: NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE GOALTENDER GAME LOGS

 

[MBH]

Please list a source that says Holland "promised" Mrazek he would move Howard. There was plenty out there from HSJ and Kahn that said Holland would "try" to move him, but without guarantee. Just because there wasn't juicy stories about teams wanting to bring in Howard, doesn't mean Holland didn't try to move him.

Mrazek still has a home in Detroit. And a lot of friends. I know some of those friends.
Mrazek was pissed the Wings didn't trade Howard..

And even if he did, poor Petr should've put Howard out of the picture with his play on the ice if he really felt Howard needed to be gone. However, he didn't do that, other than a brief instance:

-14/15: Howard was going to be difficult to move with so much term left, but the team (which was still making the playoffs) probably wasn't going to gamble on a rookie goalie that hadn't put in a full NHL season yet.

Since this is about Holland contract efficiency, let's go back to April 2013.
When Holland signed Howard to the six year contract.
Making him one of the highest paid goalies in the league.
Based on what?
Up until that point, Howard had played four seasons.
A good rookie year. A bad sophomore year. Followed by two good years.
He'd played 3 playoff seasons.
Never making it beyond round 2 on a team that had been to the final 4 the three previous years.
In his most recent year, he posted an .888 sv % losing 4-1 to Boston.
So right from the start, this was another questionable deal.
And his sv% over the course of his six year deal?
.910
.910
.906
.927 (only 26 games)
.910
.909

Being unable to move Howard isn't Mrazek's fault. Or Howard's fault.

it's Holland's fault.
There was a time recently, when virtually every UFA age contact on the Red Wings was immovable.
That speaks to contract efficiency.
Howard, by the March trade deadlines, was usually one of those deals.
But Howard often starts very well and then slides In December-January-February-March.

With Petr Mrazek, an AHL rookie playing well in Grand Rapids, I would not have signed Howard to a 6 year contract.

-2015 Offseason: After just being overtaken by a rookie and having 4 years left, Howard was probably going to be hard to move.

Holland just traded Lucic.
You telling me he couldn't trade a goalie with a .910

-15/16: Mrazek had Howard firmly in the rearview mirror, then absolutely **** the bed for the last 1/4 of the season (.886 and pulled in 3 of 14 starts), loses the starting job back to Howard (who isn't great but helps them hang onto playoff hopes) and then eventually gets back in the playoffs

Here's the critical piece.
After Mrazek shit the bed.
And then Jimmy shit the bed in the playoffs.
And Mrazek was re-inserted and played significantly better than Howard, Holland signed Mrazek to a 2 year, $4M deal.

It was at that point that Holland created an untenable situation. Howard and Mrazek were not friends. They didn't support each other.

You had to make a move here.
Trade Howard. Trade Mrazek.

The Red Wings promised Mrazek they would move Howard when Mrazek agreed to the deal.

-16/17: Mrazek starts the year as the starting goalie (9 of the first 12 starts). He's a disaster in the last 3 of those (pulled in one, 12GA and .85 altogether, so Blashill turns to Howard (and if hypothetically Howard was gone, it would've been whoever else was there). Howard gets hurt for a couple weeks and then has some bad outings after briefly returning, and Mrazek isn't any better. Howard then goes down longterm, where the net is now Mrazek's. He quickly loses it to Jared Coreau... and goes .881 for the first month Howard is gone. He platoons with Howard for the last month of the year, where Howard out plays him.

Mrazek's first six starts
shots on goal 35/37/32/33/31/32
Sv. pct, .925

He then got blown up in a three game stretch.
Allowing 12 goals in 3 games, with an .850 sv pct., getting yanked against Florida in the second period.
In the full games he faced 40 and 30 shots.

The Wings, under Blashill, were playing terrible hockey.

Howard was certainly playing a bit better than Mrazek at this point. And coach Blashill, unable to coach his way out of a paper bag, decided to go with the goalie who was playing better.

From Nov. 5 to the end of the month, Mrazek played four games.
Howard got hurt.
Mrazek went back between the pipes.
He went 4-1-2, .911. Had a bad game against Columbus where he was pulled that dropped is save percentage.

And then Howard was starter again.

Then Howard got hurt again.
And Mrazek played like crap.
And Coreau came up. he was crap, too. But he had one good game against Florida.

And then Blashill really blew it.

He started Coreau in Ottawa (where mrazek played junior).
And he started Coreau against Toronto.

-17/18: For the first half of the year, other than a shutout against the Oilers, he does nothing notable. Eventually Howard struggles and Mrazek gets more work, but that only makes him more valuable as a rental. He then goes to Philly where, like Howards injury the previous season, the net is 100% his. He's good for his first 3 starts (where some of his apologists lambast Holland for giving up on him LOL) and then he is absolute (Pe)TRASH. He gets pushed aside by Alex Lyon for a few games, and the Flyers can't wait to get Elliot or Neuvirth back.

The only reason Mrazek played in 17-18 was so that Holland could trade him.
When he got regular playing time, he was very good.
After playing terribly as a seldom used backup, by the time he was traded, his stats were virtually identical to Howard's.

And he still has yet to put in a completely good season.... For Carolina, he had a not so great start, and then was nothing special for about two months after his injury, then goes on a hot streak for the last two months of the year before he goes a stellar .899 in a 7 game 1st round victory over the Caps.

LOL. Petr Mrazek stood on his head in that seven game sweep of the caps.
And then he delivered the opening blow to the Islanders, a 31-save shootout, before a groin injury ruined what was left of his season.

There's a reason he's only making $125K more per season than Bernier, and getting rid of Howard as Petr was apparently promised wasn't going to change that. I can't believe this is still an argument here....

Petr Mrazek played in the conference finals last year.
He's got another 7-10 years to try and win a cup.

Jimmy Howard, despite playing his career with Lidstrom and Datsyuk and Zetterberg, never made it past round 2.

At 35 years old, he shows up to offseason golf outings at what must be 250 pound.

Last year, mrazek posted numbers of 2.39 and .914.
When was the last time Howard played 30 games and matched those numbers?

2012-13.
Ouch.
Not once. In the six year contract.

Anyway - there's a very simple calculus here.
We were an old, expensive team that needed to rebuild.
Trading the older, more expensive goalie was the smart move.
Keep the younger, cheaper goalie was the better move.
Especially when there was so little separating them, performance wise.

But again, go back and read the articles.
Ken Holland was talking about the playoffs, and competing for the playoffs, yada yada yada.
He was either delusional or in denial about the state of the team.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Mrazek still has a home in Detroit. And a lot of friends. I know some of those friends.
Mrazek was pissed the Wings didn't trade Howard..

Cool. He probably should've worried more about staying in the net, than who was playing 2nd fiddle. Sounds a bit immature IMO.

Since this is about Holland contract efficiency, let's go back to April 2013.
When Holland signed Howard to the six year contract.
Making him one of the highest paid goalies in the league.
Based on what?
Up until that point, Howard had played four seasons.
A good rookie year. A bad sophomore year. Followed by two good years.
He'd played 3 playoff seasons.
Never making it beyond round 2 on a team that had been to the final 4 the three previous years.
In his most recent year, he posted an .888 sv % losing 4-1 to Boston.
So right from the start, this was another questionable deal.
And his sv% over the course of his six year deal?
.910
.910
.906
.927 (only 26 games)
.910
.909

No one is, or is going to argue that Howard's contract turned out great, but at the time it was signed it was pretty much market value... In the same offseason, Mike Smith (.900, .899, .93(.944PO's), .91 in the last 4 seasons) got the same term and a higher AAV. Howard would've gotten something similar to what he signed had he hit the open market. Two years prior, the Flyers gave Bryzgalov a higher AAV for 9 years after a similar resume of 4 years as a starter and playoff disappointment as Howard.

With Petr Mrazek, an AHL rookie playing well in Grand Rapids, I would not have signed Howard to a 6 year contract.

If anything they probably hoped to have two good options through Mrazek's cost controlled years, if they even considered a guy with 42 AHL games under belt when deciding the immediate future in goal for a team with playoff aspirations. Obviously neither of them worked out for that to become a reality.

Holland just traded Lucic.
You telling me he couldn't trade a goalie with a .910

Maybe all Holland got were Neal for Lucic type offers and figuring he'd need a good 2nd option in goal, he didn't want to saddle himself with bad salary elsewhere on the roster?

Here's the critical piece.
After Mrazek **** the bed.
And then Jimmy **** the bed in the playoffs.
And Mrazek was re-inserted and played significantly better than Howard, Holland signed Mrazek to a 2 year, $4M deal.

Mrazek's bed shitting in the regular season was much worse than Howards in the playoffs, which didn't even matter to most since Mrazek's garbage play through mid-February and March had them slip to where they had to rely on a Bruins loss to get into the 8th seed.

It was at that point that Holland created an untenable situation. Howard and Mrazek were not friends. They didn't support each other.

You had to make a move here.
Trade Howard. Trade Mrazek.

The Red Wings promised Mrazek they would move Howard when Mrazek agreed to the deal.

Again, no source here. And we don't even know how it got this way. What if it was immaturity on Mrazek's part? Given that alleged storming off the ice at practice incident, well documented "cockiness", "this how we gonna deal with Ken Holland" IG post, interview where he talks about how Jim Bedard is no good for him, alleged attitude/coaching issues and resistance to suggestions for improvement/etc. I wouldn't be surprised if it originated from the youngest party of the 3...

And what if this whole "promise" was just a misunderstanding? What if Holland merely said they'd like to get down to one goalie when they signed the deal and Mrazek took that as a "promise to move Howard"

Mrazek's first six starts
shots on goal 35/37/32/33/31/32
Sv. pct, .925

He then got blown up in a three game stretch.
Allowing 12 goals in 3 games, with an .850 sv pct., getting yanked against Florida in the second period.
In the full games he faced 40 and 30 shots.

The Wings, under Blashill, were playing terrible hockey.

Howard was certainly playing a bit better than Mrazek at this point. And coach Blashill, unable to coach his way out of a paper bag, decided to go with the goalie who was playing better.

Despite playing terrible hockey, the Red Wings had a 6-2-0 record going into that Florida game.

Blashill's job is(or at least at that time was) to win games, why would he not go with the better goalie? Maybe he was also going on experience, since Petr seemed to get worse when Blashill tried to ride him through a rough stretch the season before...

LOL. Petr Mrazek stood on his head in that seven game sweep of the caps.
And then he delivered the opening blow to the Islanders, a 31-save shootout, before a groin injury ruined what was left of his season.

What's a seven game sweep? I think you're wearing some rose colored glasses. If it were Howard blowing 3 starts in a tight series for the Red Wings and playing well in the 4 wins, you probably would've roasted him for almost costing them the series.

Petr Mrazek played in the conference finals last year.
He's got another 7-10 years to try and win a cup.

Jimmy Howard, despite playing his career with Lidstrom and Datsyuk and Zetterberg, never made it past round 2.

Carolina is arguably equal to or better than some of those RW teams Howard went to the playoffs with. He had (a still excellent) Lidstrom for his first 3 years as well as an aging, regressing and frequently injured Red Wings team around Lidstrom, Zetterberg and Datsyuk.

But you're right. Mrazek did play in the ECF. However, McBackup was arguably better and more consistent when called upon to get them there.

At 35 years old, he shows up to offseason golf outings at what must be 250 pound.

Totally irrelevant, but maybe the infallible Steve Yzerman will give him the Jake Dotchin treatment this fall!