The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[Mac n Gs]

I have a nagging suspicion that primary and secondary shot assists, once they become more mainstream, will be important variables for modeling/ranking defenders.

I’d wonder if it’s correlated with xFsh% too.

 

[silverfish]

I have a nagging suspicion that primary and secondary shot assists, once they become more mainstream, will be important variables for modeling/ranking defenders.

I’d wonder if it’s correlated with xFsh% too.

Shot assists will be huge. It's something the NWHL has decided to track by default (when they (read: we) do track games) which was an excellent decision.

Could probably proxy 'playmaking ability', though. Take a look at like relCF60 and % of on ice shot attempts that belong to a player. Players with a high relCF60 and a low % of team shot attempts are probably setting shots up at a good rate?

 

[Harbour Dog]

I expected Vesey to be there, but Namestnikov? Surprise, surprise...

After seeing all of Miller's tap-in goals once he got to play with Kuch and Stamkos, I'm not surprised in the least.

 

[silverfish]

After seeing all of Miller's tap-in goals once he got to play with Kuch and Stamkos, I'm not surprised in the least.

I'm pretty sure when I ran the <= 10' shot attempts and goals, Miller only had like 3 on the entire season. So I feel like this is one of those things where your memory is playing tricks on you. Or my memory is playing tricks on me and I'm wrong remembering my data set.

If you remind me later, I can check it again when I get home.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Makes sense since it takes into account both quantity and quality. I still think there is use for iCF60 though as a barometer of volume. Perhaps not as important for D, as you mention. Have you done any work with ixFSh%?

I tried involving ixFSh%, but it always made the model worse so I've given up on it.

Another thing to notice is that it is harsh on "passive" defencemen, the more on-ice goals scored without them getting a point, the worse their future predicted performance is. So for example, the fact that no Ranger scored when DeAngelo was on the ice 5v5 in 17-18 is actually to his benefit compared to if there were a ton of goals scored without him getting points.

I haven't run the 17-18 numbers yet, but Skjei was #17 in the league in projected xGF%Rel in 16-17. I'm also really pissed that Clendening didn't get to play in the NHL in 17-18 because he was #1 overall and I want to know for sure whether he is misunderstood or if he is one of the few anomalies that appear in even the best models.

 

[Irishguy42]

I'm pretty sure when I ran the <= 10' shot attempts and goals, Miller only had like 3 on the entire season. So I feel like this is one of those things where your memory is playing tricks on you. Or my memory is playing tricks on me and I'm wrong remembering my data set.

If you remind me later, I can check it again when I get home.

inb4 most of Millers goals were 11' out, not 10'

 

[silverfish]

inb4 most of Millers goals were 11' out, not 10'

Could be, I have to look. It was like Vesey. 8 of his goals were <= 10', but I think 12 of them were <= 15', so where do you draw the line if you're looking for "net front" presence? I have no idea.

Also, this is based on the NHL pbp data which is crap. Case in point:

 

[Harbour Dog]

I'm pretty sure when I ran the <= 10' shot attempts and goals, Miller only had like 3 on the entire season. So I feel like this is one of those things where your memory is playing tricks on you. Or my memory is playing tricks on me and I'm wrong remembering my data set.

If you remind me later, I can check it again when I get home.

You're probably right, since you were the one that ran it.

If I recall correctly, you said he had 3 goals on like 20 attempts (ish). Which, now that I'm thinking about it, seems pretty wild. Not just for the terrible finishing, but because I'm pretty sure I seen a highlight pack where he had three such goals for Tampa.

I could very easily be remembering most of that wrong though; last season is a haze of pain.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Hypothesis: Jimmy Vesey's only utility is 10 feet or less from the opposition net.

Analysis:

Okay. Last season, Jimmy Vesey had 32 unblocked shot attempts from within 10 feet or less. 8 of them ended up being goals. I'm actually shocked that only 8 of Vesey's goals were from within 10ft. That's a 25% FSh%

181 players had at least 20 unblocked attempts from 10 feet or less. Vesey's 25% FSh% is 35th among this sample. This is all situations, btw.

Top-5 FSh% in the league:

Marleau: 10/21
Malkin: 13/30
Wild Bill: 12/28
Keller: 8/21
Grabner: 9/24

Top-5 by total Fenwicks:

E. Kane: 13/81
McDavid: 12/71
Gallagher: 14/66
Tkachuk: 9/65
Lee: 19/60

Holy moly Anders. How many of these attempts are going bye bye when JT leaves?

Conclusion: Jimmy Vesey is better than average at finishing Fenwicks from 10ft from the net. I'm now curious that only 8 of Vesey's goals were from this distance, so here is a density plot for distance for Vesey's 17 goals last year:

So Vesey has 8 goals 10 feet or less. His other 9 are:

128, 13, 12, 12, 21, 11, 21, 150, 17.

Ah **** me, this should've been a blog post. Oh well.

lmfao. JT Miller had 22 unblocked attempts with the Rangers last year from 10ft or less and scored on one of them. What an ass.

I blogged it and made two more visualizations:

For context, Buchnevich also took 32 attempts from 10ft or less and scored on 6 of them.

Really love how the Vesey thread is arguing about exactly this. If only we had a way to quantify things instead of just spewing constant ****.

Went back and quoted it. He had one goal on 22 attempt *for the Rangers*.

Did you run data for him on Tampa too?

 

[silverfish]

Went back and quoted it. He had one goal on 22 attempt *for the Rangers*.

Did you run data for him on Tampa too?

Yeah I can easily bring it up but it's on my home PC and I'm at work like the piece of shit drone/sheep that I am. I feel like it was 3/28 when I looked at it, but that could be someone else. I'll update later if I remember.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Yeah I can easily bring it up but it's on my home PC and I'm at work like the piece of **** drone/sheep that I am. I feel like it was 3/28 when I looked at it, but that could be someone else. I'll update later if I remember.

Awesome, thanks! I'm interested to see the results.

I considered Namestnikov to be the biggest passenger in the league before we acquired him. Any evidence that challenges that is very welcome.

 

[Blue Blooded]

My projections based on Names' 2014-2017 seasons is that he scores at a borderline 2nd/3rd line level and drives CF% and xGF% at an average 2nd line level. His actual numbers in terms of P60 CF%Rel and xGF%Rel have been higher than what the model predicts going forward.

Useful player that probably cannot carry a line.

 

[Mac n Gs]

My projections based on Names' 2014-2017 seasons is that he scores at a borderline 2nd/3rd line level and drives CF% and xGF% at an average 2nd line level. His actual numbers in terms of P60 CF%Rel and xGF%Rel have been higher than what the model predicts going forward.

Useful player that probably cannot carry a line.

Do you have that list of RD you mentioned a couple of days ago? I’m interested to see how they were ranked.

 

[Blue Blooded]

@Mac n Gs

This is the top 20 defencemen in projected xGF%Rel from 2016-17:

ADAM.CLENDENING
KRIS.LETANG
VICTOR.HEDMAN
ERIK.KARLSSON
DOUGIE.HAMILTON
DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN
FREDRIK.CLAESSON
TYSON.BARRIE
JARED.SPURGEON
DAMON.SEVERSON
JACOB.TROUBA
MIKE.GREEN
DAVID.SCHLEMKO
NICK.JENSEN
ROMAN.JOSI
BRADY.SKJEI
COLTON.PARAYKO
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ
BRENT.BURNS
AARON.EKBLAD

 

[silverfish]

This is the top 20 defencemen in projected xGF%Rel from 2016-17:

ADAM.CLENDENING
KRIS.LETANG
VICTOR.HEDMAN
ERIK.KARLSSON
DOUGIE.HAMILTON
DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN
FREDRIK.CLAESSON
TYSON.BARRIE
JARED.SPURGEON
DAMON.SEVERSON
JACOB.TROUBA
MIKE.GREEN
DAVID.SCHLEMKO
NICK.JENSEN
ROMAN.JOSI
BRADY.SKJEI
COLTON.PARAYKO
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ
BRENT.BURNS
AARON.EKBLAD

A lot of names here the Rangers have or have been linked to.

Blue Blooded is Jim Sullivan? He's posting on HFNYR again because he got fired for Yates?

 

[Mac n Gs]

A lot of names here the Rangers have or have been linked to.

Blue Blooded is Jim Sullivan? He's posting on HFNYR again because he got fired for Yates?

Maybe? Convince Gorton to get us Parayko so I know it’s real.

 

[silverfish]

@Harbour Dog Miller was 3/28 on the season. My memory is stupid good. 1/22 with NYR 2/6 with TB.

Namestnikov on the other hand was 0/4 with NYR and 7/24 with TB.

All NYR unblocked shot attempts and goals <= 10' according to NHL PBP

MFW Vesey isn't even that good at the only thing he's good at

 

[Harbour Dog]

Miller and Names' rates are pretty similar, I guess. Given that Names played over 500 minutes with Kuch and Stamkos, I expected him to of been way ahead of Miller.

Legit shocked that Hayes isn't 4th or 5th on this list. He had such a ridiculously good season.

 

[Leetch3]

A lot of names here the Rangers have or have been linked to.

Blue Blooded is Jim Sullivan? He's posting on HFNYR again because he got fired for Yates?

was she ever hired?

 

[silverfish]

was she ever hired?

Every now and then I peep her LinkedIn profile to see. She's still listed as BU's director of analytics.

 

[Miamipuck]

Did they fire Sullivan or were you joking?

 

[Mac n Gs]

Did they fire Sullivan or were you joking?

He was joking because Blue Blooded is finally back to posting after a few years. Sullivan is still listed on the Rangers director as "Director, Player Care & Development/Analytics and Hockey Technology."

 

[Blue Blooded]

Looking at the pairing stats on Corsica I've changed my mind about the defence, this is what I'd like to see:

Staal-Shattenkirk
Skjei-DeAngelo
Claesson/Smith/Gilmour-Pionk

Staal-Shattenkirk might have been a fluke last year (50 CF%, +5 Rel), but I have a theory on why it worked. Staal does best when the game is slow and methodical, and that is Shatty's 5v5 game as well and he has the ability to dictate the pave on the ice. Staal played the best hockey of his career next to Strålman, a very calm and methodical partner.

Skjei-Shattenkirk may have been a bust for this reason as they play opposite games (uptempo/downtempo).

Does anyone know why there are sometimes large discrepancies between Corsica and NatStatTrick CF data BTW?

 

[silverfish]

Looking at the pairing stats on Corsica I've changed my mind about the defence, this is what I'd like to see:

Staal-Shattenkirk
Skjei-DeAngelo
Claesson/Smith/Gilmour-Pionk

Staal-Shattenkirk might have been a fluke last year (50 CF%, +5 Rel), but I have a theory on why it worked. Staal does best when the game is slow and methodical, and that is Shatty's 5v5 game as well and he has the ability to dictate the pave on the ice. Staal played the best hockey of his career next to Strålman, a very calm and methodical partner.

Skjei-Shattenkirk may have been a bust for this reason as they play opposite games (uptempo/downtempo).

Does anyone know why there are sometimes large discrepancies between Corsica and NatStatTrick CF data BTW?

Issue I have with these pairings is the usage they'll get. Does usage matter? Not as much as we like to think. But I don't want Staal starting in the O-Zone, where I do want Shattenkirk starting. On the same token, while I have no problem with starting Shattenkirk in the D-zone, I don't think it's in his best interest to optimize his game. I might balance it more, something like:

Smith - Shattenkirk
Skjei - Pionk
Staal - DeAngelo
Claesson

Actually, nah, our right side is way too bad to put Smith on the left. Gorton can't be done... can he?

In a perfect world, Staal isn't on the team, and Claesson and Gilly battle for that spot, but here we are.

I also truly believe Smith will go from 'zero' to 'hero' on this board next year. He wasn't even that bad last season. Definitely not bad enough to be exiled to the AHL and a scapegoat.

In terms of discrepancies between the sites, not sure. Are you certain all the parameters are equal? Screenshots of examples?

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I actually think a Smith Shattenkirk top pairing could be solid

A Skjei-DeAngelo pairing also seems like a logical choice, someone mentioned it here recently, but they formed a rather formidable pairing when they were together last year. That was always the intention when they brought DeAngelo in was to see if he could work as a partner for Skjei

Staal-Pionk is a fine third pair, I'm worried about Pionk's chuck up the boards and out habits becoming worse with Staal, but what ya gonna do?