The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[Mac n Gs]

One thing I'm really interested in seeing is the YoY changes of anyone who played a full year under AV last year and plays a full year under Quinn next year. Outside of normal aging and progression, I'm thinking we see some interesting stuff.

Not sure if anyone is paying attention, but Neil Greenberg is expertly trolling hockey Twitter right now. At least for his sake, I hope he's trolling because if he's serious this is just sad now.

Who is he and what is he saying?

 

[silverfish]

Who is he and what is he saying?

Sports writer for WaPo.

Things like:

 

[Mac n Gs]

Sports writer for WaPo.

Things like:

So appeal to authority? K cool, go look at the Ottawa Senators or Peter Chiarelli these past couple of years.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Best guess? Instill a new style of hockey that’s heavily influenced by the current style used by the USDP based on the hires of Quinn and Brown. Oliver also has ties to US hockey through Joe Sacco and Quinn.

That north-south style is heavily driven by structure and pressuring the puck in the defensive zone and having an active defense drive transition up ice in 5-man units. As to the offensive zone, that’s where they get iffy as it’s a mix of cycling and freewheeling on the fly. It works when there’s talent in place to showcase skill, but I don’t think we have the firepower to do this for 4 lines.

With that in place, integrate prospects in waves so they can get softer usage and acclimate to the NHL game.

I honestly think improving the style of play is the main goal for this season. How many times have we seen AV’s system trashed by Brooks and Carp recently?

" With that in place, integrate prospects in waves so they can get softer usage and acclimate to the NHL game. "

That is really key, frankly. If you have the prospect pool to do this, it's easily the best way. Problem is that most teams simply lack the depth to be able to do that. Normally only teams in a full rebuild can.

 

[silverfish]

what an ass

 

[Mac n Gs]

" With that in place, integrate prospects in waves so they can get softer usage and acclimate to the NHL game. "

That is really key, frankly. If you have the prospect pool to do this, it's easily the best way. Problem is that most teams simply lack the depth to be able to do that. Normally only teams in a full rebuild can.

I’m happy that we have this ability, and I wonder if it was the plan for this season right from the start.

 

[silverfish]

I think one thing that is really lost on a lot of people is how much situational TOI matters in terms of providing context for player point totals. Defaulting to raw point totals is... well... ungood.

Take any discussion regarding Trouba, for instance. People look at his point totals and get underwhelmed. But you need to look at more than that. Trouba had 24 points last year. People say that a lot. What they don't say is that he only played 55 games. What they don't say is that he averaged basically 1.5 minutes of PP time per game. Trouba had a 1.05 ES points/60 last year. 32nd among D who skated at least 500 minutes. Sandwiched between PK Subban (1.06) and Shea Theodore (also 1.05).

It's really a big pain in my ass that rate metrics are still frowned upon. It's a pain in my ass that people don't understand why we default to 5v5 or ES. It's a pain in my ass that we can't advance hockey analytics further because of the road blocks that get put up. And it's a major pain in my ass that we can't post advanced stats anywhere else on this forum.

Also why the f*** didn't we trade for Josh Manson f*** me. If I was GM of this team, our right-side D would be Manson, Shattenkirk, Franson. Find me a better right-side. You won't.

 

[Irishguy42]

Also why the **** didn't we trade for Josh Manson **** me. If I was GM of this team, our right-side D would be Manson, Shattenkirk, Franson. Find me a better right-side. You won't.

Nakladal is a RHS.

 

[silverfish]

Nakladal is a RHS.

He's obviously the 7D get outta here.



Motherf***ing

LIFTOFF

 

[Mac n Gs]

I think one thing that is really lost on a lot of people is how much situational TOI matters in terms of providing context for player point totals. Defaulting to raw point totals is... well... ungood.

Take any discussion regarding Trouba, for instance. People look at his point totals and get underwhelmed. But you need to look at more than that. Trouba had 24 points last year. People say that a lot. What they don't say is that he only played 55 games. What they don't say is that he averaged basically 1.5 minutes of PP time per game. Trouba had a 1.05 ES points/60 last year. 32nd among D who skated at least 500 minutes. Sandwiched between PK Subban (1.06) and Shea Theodore (also 1.05).

It's really a big pain in my ass that rate metrics are still frowned upon. It's a pain in my ass that people don't understand why we default to 5v5 or ES. It's a pain in my ass that we can't advance hockey analytics further because of the road blocks that get put up. And it's a major pain in my ass that we can't post advanced stats anywhere else on this forum.

Also why the **** didn't we trade for Josh Manson **** me. If I was GM of this team, our right-side D would be Manson, Shattenkirk, Franson. Find me a better right-side. You won't.

It's the weirdest thing. It's ok when this context is used to support players you like, but it's heresy if it's used to form other opinions.

Analyzing this context to find players that are doing well with their usage is exactly how you find players to either backfill depth or to take a risk on that there's an additional level there. It's not rocket science. It's, "Hey, this guy played less frequently than you would've expected, but still put up xyz numbers in that time."

 

[silverfish]

It's the weirdest thing. It's ok when this context is used to support players you like, but it's heresy if it's used to form other opinions.

Analyzing this context to find players that are doing well with their usage is exactly how you find players to either backfill depth or to take a risk on that there's an additional level there. It's not rocket science. It's, "Hey, this guy played less frequently than you would've expected, but still put up xyz numbers in that time."

Case in point will be Buchnevich this year (Quinn willing), and Hayes if he finally gets PP time for f***s sake. Weird that giving guys with high p60 will give them an increase in points! WHO WOULD'VE THUNK!

(Analyzing hockey isn't really that hard anymore)

I wonder if there are any players who have a higher 5v5 p60 than Hayes that got less PP time per game last year... Desharnais got 17 more PP minutes in 5 less games LOOOOOOOOOOL f*** YOU AV

Here is a comprehensive list of players who had a higher 5v5 p/60 than Hayes last year, but skated less TOI/GP during the PP: Adam Lowry, Miles Wood. (minimum 500 minutes 5v5). I can't believe we need analytics to tell us TO PLAY YOUR GOOD PLAYERS MORE THAN YOUR BAD PLAYERS YOU f***ING MORON

 

[Mac n Gs]

Case in point will be Buchnevich this year (Quinn willing), and Hayes if he finally gets PP time for ****s sake. Weird that giving guys with high p60 will give them an increase in points! WHO WOULD'VE THUNK!

(Analyzing hockey isn't really that hard anymore)

I wonder if there are any players who have a higher 5v5 p60 than Hayes that got less PP time per game last year... Desharnais got 17 more PP minutes in 5 less games LOOOOOOOOOOL **** YOU AV

Here is a comprehensive list of players who had a higher 5v5 p/60 than Hayes last year, but skated less TOI/GP during the PP: Adam Lowry, Miles Wood. (minimum 500 minutes 5v5). I can't believe we need analytics to tell us TO PLAY YOUR GOOD PLAYERS MORE THAN YOUR BAD PLAYERS YOU ****ING MORON

Funny enough, I actually don't think we'll see Hayes get PP minutes this season if Chytil and Lias stick. I think Mika will get the lion's share of minutes, and then they'll try to use a kid on the second unit. I can see Hayes getting the bulk of the ES and PK minutes because that's where he excels.

 

[silverfish]

Funny enough, I actually don't think we'll see Hayes get PP minutes this season if Chytil and Lias stick. I think Mika will get the lion's share of minutes, and then they'll try to use a kid on the second unit. I can see Hayes getting the bulk of the ES and PK minutes because that's where he excels.

4F - 1D on both units should let us roll whatever we want to our heart's desires? I mean, I'm still not convinced this is the roster we go into October with because it screams 8-12 place finish in the conference and that's the middle everyone loves to avoid, but wtf do I know.

Kreider, Zucc, Zibanejad, Buchnevich, Shattenkirk
Hayes, Spooner, Names, Kid, Kid2

Who did I miss? If someone says Vesey, I'm asking mods for a permaban.

 

[SA16]

I'd play Fast over one of those forwards (likely Namestnikov) because that's 7 left handed forwards and 1 right handed.

 

[silverfish]

I'd play Fast over one of those forwards (likely Namestnikov) because that's 7 left handed forwards and 1 right handed.

Well, I wasn't paying attention to handedness because I'm dumb so thank you for pointing that out. You know who's right-handed? Owen Tippet. Alex DeBrincat. Jakub Nakladal.

 

[SA16]

Well, I wasn't paying attention to handedness because I'm dumb so thank you for pointing that out.

Doesn't matter in reality they're never playing Fast on the PP. It's just gonna be Shattenkirk Deangelo Pionk as the right handed shots (which I'm fine with if they use one of the dman as a forward and not in a 3-2 formation on the second unit which I tend to doubt they'd do).

 

[silverfish]

Doesn't matter in reality they're never playing Fast on the PP. It's just gonna be Shattenkirk Deangelo Pionk as the right handed shots (which I'm fine with if they use one of the dman as a forward and not in a 3-2 formation on the second unit which I tend to doubt they'd do).

Fast is low-key a tip machine, and would be an interesting "experiment" on the PP as "guy who really isn't that good but we'll park in front of the net because he's shown a history of being good at tips" and seeing what happens.

As long as there's no Vesey or any other abhorrent choices like McLeod, I don't care.

I just want to do smart things.

 

[Mac n Gs]

4F - 1D on both units should let us roll whatever we want to our heart's desires? I mean, I'm still not convinced this is the roster we go into October with because it screams 8-12 place finish in the conference and that's the middle everyone loves to avoid, but wtf do I know.

Kreider, Zucc, Zibanejad, Buchnevich, Shattenkirk
Hayes, Spooner, Names, Kid, Kid2

Who did I miss? If someone says Vesey, I'm asking mods for a permaban.

SA16 answered it, but I'd rather get a righty shot in there.

I don't think we're done either, and I really do wonder how much is being bottlenecked by a Karlsson deal. I'd say arbitration is slowing things down, but I don't really remember many August trades in recent years, and trades usually pick back up in September and early October.

Here's to 8 more weeks of rebuild debate!

 

[Machinehead]

Is Chytil a volume shooter or is my sample too small? Well, I know my sample is too small, but in his 7 games at the end of the year, he led the team in 5v5 iCF60 by over 2. 17.06 vs Zibanejad next at 14.96 [Natural Stat Trick]. Over 2 shots on goal per game at the AHL level would suggest a willingness to shoot the puck.

This thought sparked by a guy in my mentions on Twitter who usually is a troll but had a good thought about how we replace Nash's shooting volume next year. Another 'recreate him in the aggregate' situation like with losing Stepan. Chytil is a darkhorse here, if he gets the minutes, to help lighten the load on the guys who should be carrying it, Zibanejad, Kreider, and Buchnevich.

Could be he's a volume shooter.

Could be that he played 7 times for AV and his peers played hundreds of times for AV, and AV literally hates shooting.

 

[Blue Blooded]

As I wrote in s previous post I have on my own done some work on predicting future performance that have yielded very good results if I may say so myself (strong theoretical predictive value and correct real world outcomes) of which I have gleaned some new and interesting insights and I thought I'd share one that I can account for on the fly: Volume shooting is not a positive for a defenceman in and of itself. If two defencemen have the same ixGF60, the one with the lower iCF60 has better projected P60, CF%Rel and xGF%Rel (though sightly lower projected G60). I will mention that this is only based on 1 season to 1 season data, but I've stress tested it thoroughly and common sense would place less importance on a metric like iCF60 compared to ixGF60 over larger samples.

 

[silverfish]

As I wrote in s previous post I have on my own done some work on predicting future performance that have yielded very good results if I may say so myself (strong theoretical predictive value and correct real world outcomes) of which I have gleaned some new and interesting insights and I thought I'd share one that I can account for on the fly: Volume shooting is not a positive for a defenceman in and of itself. If two defencemen have the same ixGF60, the one with the lower iCF60 has better projected P60, CF%Rel and xGF%Rel (though sightly lower projected G60). I will mention that this is only based on 1 season to 1 season data, but I've stress tested it thoroughly and common sense would place less importance on a metric like iCF60 compared to ixGF60 over larger samples.

Makes sense since it takes into account both quantity and quality. I still think there is use for iCF60 though as a barometer of volume. Perhaps not as important for D, as you mention. Have you done any work with ixFSh%?

 

[silverfish]

Interesting thread. I think what this highlights above all is the limitations of NHL pbp data.

 

[Irishguy42]

Interesting thread. I think what this highlights above all is the limitations of NHL pbp data.

I expected Vesey to be there, but Namestnikov? Surprise, surprise...

 

[SA16]

I think with iCF with D a lot of the guys who shoot a ton are guys who just fire randomly from extremely low quality spots in lieu of trying to set up a better scoring chance (which coincidentally makes them great dfs plays...). Gudas, for example, shoots a ton but rarely scores likely because he just fires pucks on goal like crazy from the blue line near the wall.

 

[silverfish]