Prospect Info: The Adolescent 2019 Draft Thread

[Zaddy]

These are both solid defensive prospects, and you'll never see me talk about avoiding right-handed defenders in the draft, but I'm not as high on these guys as their current 'rankings' would have them go. I like Korczak as an early third round pick. He just doesn't do anything dynamic enough to warrant taking him much higher than that in my opinion. He is a very solid defender, one of the more polished in that aspect of the game in the draft, but he really isn't an offensive producer. Defenders like him generally don't become top 3 defenders, usually bottom 4. Nothing wrong with a third pairing right-handed defender in the third round, but I'd prefer to swing for the fences with more dynamic players early on in the draft. Spence is certainly more dynamic, and plays with a lot of poise, but he needs to add a lot of strength, and is not polished at all in his own zone. Strength would certainly go a long ways to improving that, but I'm liking him more as a late third/early fourth right now.

Drew Helleson has a chance to be a real player as well, and likely goes right around our second rounder(currently). He is a two-way defender who can play in all situations. Korczak's teammate, Lassi Thomson might offer the most flair of any of the guys rated in the second round. Martin Hugo Has is also intriguing. He is much like Korczak, but I believe his offensive game has a little more upside than Korczak. Simon Lundmark is another intriguing European option. I would like to hear Zaddy's take on him. I think he has the offensive instincts to be a real strong two-way defender, but I haven't seen him enough yet.

As far as our first rounder, I want a player who can produce offense, has speed and is highly competitive in nature. This draft is full of these players and I'd be happy with any of them in the first depending where we draft. Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zegras and Peyton Krebs fit the bill in the top 10, Connor McMichael, Phil Tomasino, Jakob Pelletier, and Matthew Boldy are solid options from 10-25, and Nils Hoglander is my wild card late first rounder where we all hope to end up drafting. I'm not real sure how high Hoglander's offensive game will tap out, but I have all kinds of time for players like him(think Brendan Gallagher). He may not have the size, but the competitiveness and drive would be a breath of fresh air to the Oilers team.

I like Lundmark, but I haven't seen him much this year. I saw him a lot last year however and my scouting report on him then was basically that he has fantastic vision and is a great passer who can hit tape-to-tape passes from deep into the D zone to the opposing blue line. Those are probably his best traits. Also, like most swedish prospects, an above-average skater with good hockey sense and offensive instincts.

My concerns with him last year was mostly that he was quite raw defensively and sometimes weak on the puck (likely strength-related) but I have to think that is something that's been worked on over the past year seeing as he's getting some pretty decent minutes in the SHL this year with Linköping. He played 17:44 and had an assist last game against Växjö and has garnered some praise for his play in that league.

Very promising player. He'd be a solid 2nd round pick. Wouldn't surprise me if he started getting some 1st round consideration as the year goes on and he keeps up his play in SHL and has a strong U18's in April though. Nils Lundkvist was taken 28th overall last year and I personally like Lundmark better than him.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Can you elaborate? What is it that you do not like? He does not shy away from the traffic, is not a perimeter player, has a great shot, appears to be a good skater, etc.

I think that's a mistake. I don't think there are 12 players better than Boldy in this draft. You're right in that he's likely a complementary player but he could be a very good one at that. I've learned not to underestimate these players after seeing how much success the Tkachuk brothers have had. Boldy is in a similar mold, but maybe doesn't have that nastiness to him, but he's a very good player in his own right. He has incredible hands and a wicked shot along with good size, skating and playmaking. I think he'd be a great fit with the Oilers. He's just what the Oilers forward group are missing, a guy who is big, can maintain possession and also be a one-shot scorer. He'd score 30+ goals a year on the wing of McDavid or Drai. I'd take him over Cozens.



I mean look at these filthy hands:

Maybe not taking him top 12 was a bit of an exaggeration. It’s not that I don’t like him, I think he’ll be a great player at the nhl level. It’s more that I don’t see him being a player that can generate offense on his own, but can make the rest of the line a lot better. Landeskog is a comparison that I use and think is pretty accurate. So I’d be thrilled if we pick him, but there are guys with higher upside I’d prefer early on. And you’re right about the Tkachuk brothers. They both proved me wrong. I tend to prefer prospects with speed and skill, but players like the Tkachuks keep proving me wrong.

Regarding Dylan Cozens, he’s a guy I’m so torn on. I see speed, size, and a good shot, but I’m not sure it will translate. His shot is good, but not good enough to be the pure sniper on a line, and I don’t see him being good enough to consistently set up his line mates at the NHL level. There are two things that he doesn’t have that make me hesitant: elite hands or vision. I’d still be really excited if we drafted him, but like Boldy, I see him as a complimentary player in the NHL.

For the record though being a complimentary player is nothing to be ashamed of. We need more players that can improve the line they play on. You look at MacKinnon, 50 point player until he plays with Rantanen and Landeskog. Some people are now calling him the 2nd best player in the world.

 

[Zaddy]

Maybe not taking him top 12 was a bit of an exaggeration. It’s not that I don’t like him, I think he’ll be a great player at the nhl level. It’s more that I don’t see him being a player that can generate offense on his own, but can make the rest of the line a lot better. Landeskog is a comparison that I use and think is pretty accurate. So I’d be thrilled if we pick him, but there are guys with higher upside I’d prefer early on. And you’re right about the Tkachuk brothers. They both proved me wrong. I tend to prefer prospects with speed and skill, but players like the Tkachuks keep proving me wrong.

Yep. A lot of people (including me) was questioning the offensive upside of Matthew Tkachuk, but look at him now. Already 24 goals and over PPG this year, and that's without playing on a line with Gaudreau. At this point it would almost be disingenuous to call him a complementary player. The guy provides a lot offense.

Then you look at his brother Brady who had very modest numbers with the USNTDP and only 8 goals in 41 games in college, people were again questioning the offensive upside but he's already producing at a good clip as a rookie on one of the worst teams in the NHL.

I think Boldy could be next. From what I've seen so far he has all the skills required to be a high-end producer in the NHL.

Regarding Dylan Cozens, he’s a guy I’m so torn on. I see speed, size, and a good shot, but I’m not sure it will translate. His shot is good, but not good enough to be the pure sniper on a line, and I don’t see him being good enough to consistently set up his line mates at the NHL level. There are two things that he doesn’t have that make me hesitant: elite hands or vision. I’d still be really excited if we drafted him, but like Boldy, I see him as a complimentary player in the NHL.

Yep, I agree with most of this. I just think Boldy does everything Cozens does, but better. The only place where Cozens might have an advantage is skating, at least when it comes to straight-line speed. Cozens get a lot of credit for his shot, but as you say his shot is not good enough to be a sniper, so him having a "good shot" doesn't really mean much to me. Boldy's shot is much better IMO and he can be that one-shot scorer on a line, or a guy who can fire a lazer from the top of the faceoff circles if given some space. And he's a better playmaker, with better vision and hockey sense than Cozens too.

I see Cozens more as a 2nd-3rd line tweener whereas Boldy could be a legit top6 forward and quite likely a 1st liner at that. HockeyProspect (the scouting service I respect the most) have Boldy ranked #5, so safe to say they're pretty high on him too, while they have Cozens #9. They have Dach #7, which means Boldy is ahead of him too. I can honestly see the rationale behind that even if I personally still would have Dach ahead at this time but both guys are likely to be high-end players in the NHL.

For me, currently, I think I'd have Dach, Krebs and Boldy as my guys ranked in the 3-5 range, but I haven't really watched Byram or Turcotte yet and only seen a little of Podkolzin and Zegras.

For the record though being a complimentary player is nothing to be ashamed of. We need more players that can improve the line they play on. You look at MacKinnon, 50 point player until he plays with Rantanen and Landeskog. Some people are now calling him the 2nd best player in the world.

Yeah for sure, and the Oilers have the centers to get the most out of a guy like Boldy.

 

[aspin3]

Maybe not taking him top 12 was a bit of an exaggeration. It’s not that I don’t like him, I think he’ll be a great player at the nhl level. It’s more that I don’t see him being a player that can generate offense on his own, but can make the rest of the line a lot better. Landeskog is a comparison that I use and think is pretty accurate. So I’d be thrilled if we pick him, but there are guys with higher upside I’d prefer early on. And you’re right about the Tkachuk brothers. They both proved me wrong. I tend to prefer prospects with speed and skill, but players like the Tkachuks keep proving me wrong.

Regarding Dylan Cozens, he’s a guy I’m so torn on. I see speed, size, and a good shot, but I’m not sure it will translate. His shot is good, but not good enough to be the pure sniper on a line, and I don’t see him being good enough to consistently set up his line mates at the NHL level. There are two things that he doesn’t have that make me hesitant: elite hands or vision. I’d still be really excited if we drafted him, but like Boldy, I see him as a complimentary player in the NHL.

For the record though being a complimentary player is nothing to be ashamed of. We need more players that can improve the line they play on. You look at MacKinnon, 50 point player until he plays with Rantanen and Landeskog. Some people are now calling him the 2nd best player in the world.

What are you basing you opinion on Boldy on? Who on the USDTP team is the driver that he is feeding off of now based on your opinion?

 

[780il]

I don't know about you guys. But I don't think we should be drafting complimentary players.

At this point, Leon at 1rw is a given. He doesn't drive the play well enough on his own and him and Mcdavid play on an otherworldly level together. Best to keep those two together. Nuge is a better "driver" than Drai but we could use an upgrade.

What we need is an elite play driver for the 2nd line. If we can't get that where we pick, I would move up and take the guy that we see as being that.

Dach is one of those guys that scream playdriving elite Center to me (although I am wary of some aspects of his game). If we wanted the hometown guy and belive in him to be that play driver with Nuge on the 2nd line, Id move up and nab him.

X - Mcdavid - Drai
Nuge - Dach - X

If Dach pans out, throw in Yams and Pulju or any complimentary wings into the 2 X's and we'd have the best top 6 in the league.

 

[McDNicks17]

Boldy is intriguing, but I'm not sure I'd want to use a top 10 pick on him.

He's been playing with some elite centers with much better numbers than he has all season.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I'm going to launch a blog/site this weekend about OHL prospects, and have a bigger report on this. Tomasino just had his best period yet in a house packed with scouts. His goal was nice, but his 2 assists were something else (game isn't over).

I'm getting to the point where he is becoming top 10 consideration for me.

Edit: Howson and Green are here scouting. So happy they are seeing this game.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Outside of Hughes and Kakko this draft....kind of sucks?

Outside of them, Yamamoto would be on the top 5-10 which isn't a great showing for the draft class.

At this point if we don't get a top 2 pick i would trade it pretty quick. Outside of the top 2 nonenon the defenders are potential top pairing guys from what I have seen. None of the centers are anything special and the wingers are average at best.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Outside of Hughes and Kakko this draft....kind of sucks?

Outside of them, Yamamoto would be on the top 5-10 which isn't a great showing for the draft class.

At this point if we don't get a top 2 pick i would trade it pretty quick. Outside of the top 2 nonenon the defenders are potential top pairing guys from what I have seen. None of the centers are anything special and the wingers are average at best.

No, not really. Yamamoto is comparable to Cole Caufield this year who is projected to go in the 15-25 range.

 

[Zaddy]

Outside of Hughes and Kakko this draft....kind of sucks?

Outside of them, Yamamoto would be on the top 5-10 which isn't a great showing for the draft class.

At this point if we don't get a top 2 pick i would trade it pretty quick. Outside of the top 2 nonenon the defenders are potential top pairing guys from what I have seen. None of the centers are anything special and the wingers are average at best.

From what I've seen so far I'd have to disagree. This is more like the 2017 draft where people thought there were two good prospects at the top in Hischier and Patrick and the rest sucked, or at least wasn't anything special. But when you look back at it now it looks really quite strong in comparison. I think the 2019 draft could be similar. Personally, the more I get into and watch the prospects from this draft, the more I like about this draft.

 

[CycloneSweep]

From what I've seen so far I'd have to disagree. This is more like the 2017 draft where people thought there were two good prospects at the top in Hischier and Patrick and the rest sucked, or at least wasn't anything special. But when you look back at it now it looks really quite strong in comparison. I think the 2019 draft could be similar. Personally, the more I get into and watch the prospects from this draft, the more I like about this draft.

I feel like most people get overhyped with drafts the more they watch them. A few big scouts have said this is a weak draft and I tend to agree. The offensive numbers in this draft class are pretty underwhelming to be quite honest. The defense in this draft is overall quite weak and no one is really that...good? I'd say it's somewhere in the middle of the Yakupov draft and the 2017 draft.

Like outside of the top 2, who is an actual stand out? Even the rest of the top 5 wouldn't be close to top 10 in a lot of recent years.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Outside of Hughes and Kakko this draft....kind of sucks?

Outside of them, Yamamoto would be on the top 5-10 which isn't a great showing for the draft class.

At this point if we don't get a top 2 pick i would trade it pretty quick. Outside of the top 2 nonenon the defenders are potential top pairing guys from what I have seen. None of the centers are anything special and the wingers are average at best.

Right now Tomasino is ranked in the 20's (though he will go higher), and he is better than Yamamoto in every way imaginable. Shot, vision, skating, 2-way play, upside, size. This isn't a bad draft at all

 

[Zaddy]

I feel like most people get overhyped with drafts the more they watch them. A few big scouts have said this is a weak draft and I tend to agree. The offensive numbers in this draft class are pretty underwhelming to be quite honest. The defense in this draft is overall quite weak and no one is really that...good? I'd say it's somewhere in the middle of the Yakupov draft and the 2017 draft.

I don't think it's amazing but I think as the year goes by it looks like it's starting to get better. For me personally I think it's rather useless to even watch or judge the draft in the first half of the season, there's really not a lot to be gained from that, but once you start getting into February you get a better idea of who the real top-end guys are. We're now seeing some guys starting to slowly emerge and rise up the rankings. That's usually the case in every draft, hence why many tend to be low on drafts early on, because those under-the-radar type guys haven't emerged yet.

I mean you see guys now like McMichael, Tomasino, Ryan Johnson starting to come on, you have a guy like Söderström who has really established himself in the SHL and is a top4 d there (incredibly rare for a draft-eligible D). You have Turcotte and Simon Holmström returning from injury, you have Kakko who had a great WJC, Heinola starting to get some recognition as are guys like Bobby Brink, Pelletier and most recently Rhett Pitlick (cousin of Tyler).

Like outside of the top 2, who is an actual stand out? Even the rest of the top 5 wouldn't be close to top 10 in a lot of recent years.

Dach & Turcotte are two that stand out. Krebs is very underrated as well as he's playing on a terrible Kootenay team. He's a one-man army there pretty much. I already mentioned Söderström. I like Boldy. Newhook is ranked pretty low but has elite potential and is leading the BCHL in scoring as a draft-eligible, that hasn't happened in a very long time IIRC. Broberg and Seider are two big D who can really skate.

So yeah, it feels like a pretty average/decent to good draft to me. Don't really know why it would be seen as weaker than others. There's enough talent there, at least in the 1st round. Beyond that I'm not really sure how the draft looks but that's not really something you can estimate too accurately beforehand.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Right now Tomasino is ranked in the 20's (though he will go higher), and he is better than Yamamoto in every way imaginable. Shot, vision, skating, 2-way play, upside, size. This isn't a bad draft at all

I don't see it. His offensive numbers are quite below what Yamamoto put up in his draft year and he is on an offensive power house.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I don't think it's amazing but I think as the year goes by it looks like it's starting to get better. For me personally I think it's rather useless to even watch or judge the draft in the first half of the season, there's really not a lot to be gained from that, but once you start getting into February you get a better idea of who the real top-end guys are. We're now seeing some guys starting to slowly emerge and rise up the rankings. That's usually the case in every draft, hence why many tend to be low on drafts early on, because those under-the-radar type guys haven't emerged yet.

I mean you see guys now like McMichael, Tomasino, Ryan Johnson starting to come on, you have a guy like Söderström who has really established himself in the SHL and is a top4 d there (incredibly rare for a draft-eligible D). You have Turcotte and Simon Holmström returning from injury, you have Kakko who had a great WJC, Heinola starting to get some recognition as are guys like Bobby Brink, Pelletier and most recently Rhett Pitlick (cousin of Tyler).



Dach & Turcotte are two that stand out. Krebs is very underrated as well as he's playing on a terrible Kootenay team. He's a one-man army there pretty much. I already mentioned Söderström. I like Boldy. Newhook is ranked pretty low but has elite potential and is leading the BCHL in scoring as a draft-eligible, that hasn't happened in a very long time IIRC. Broberg and Seider are two big D who can really skate.

So yeah, it feels like a pretty average/decent to good draft to me. Don't really know why it would be seen as weaker than others. There's enough talent there, at least in the 1st round. Beyond that I'm not really sure how the draft looks but that's not really something you can estimate too accurately beforehand.

Turcotte doesn't look like anything special. Dach to be seems to have a 2C ceiling. Not strong enough offensively or defensively to really feel like more. Newhook, I'm unsure of due to the BCHL, really hard to get a good read on guys there.

From what I have seen most of these guys aren't bad but very few of them look to have future top 6 upside. A few will for sure but my overall point really is, this is a great year to move the pick as no matter where you fall 5-30, you really aren't losing much trading it away

If anything is think Krebs is overrated from playing on a bad team. Put him on a good team and I don't think he looks any better. Infact probably worse cause he would see much less icetime.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I don't see it. His offensive numbers are quite below what Yamamoto put up in his draft year and he is on an offensive power house.

I see it every week. He had a really slow start playing in the bottom 6. 3 goals in his first 20 games. 23 goals in his last 28. He found his confidence and he's getting better every night. Scouts I talk to are loving this player.

Also, playing on an offensive powerhouse sometimes leads to fewer points for the individual. He isn't on the top PP yet because of the older high scoring players. He would be the go to guy on the PP of 16 other teams in the OHL

 

[Zaddy]

Turcotte doesn't look like anything special. Dach to be seems to have a 2C ceiling. Not strong enough offensively or defensively to really feel like more. Newhook, I'm unsure of due to the BCHL, really hard to get a good read on guys there.

From what I have seen most of these guys aren't bad but very few of them look to have future top 6 upside. A few will for sure but my overall point really is, this is a great year to move the pick as no matter where you fall 5-30, you really aren't losing much trading it away

If anything is think Krebs is overrated from playing on a bad team. Put him on a good team and I don't think he looks any better. Infact probably worse cause he would see much less icetime.

Heh, don't think I could disagree more with you here. Dach has elite upside. Krebs might not be elite but definitely has 1st line potential. Turcotte I only recently started watching more closely and while he has some stuff he needs to work on he has the smarts, skill and speed to be a 1st liner (if not an elite player) as well.

I think if you have a pick in the top10 and move it, you're likely going to regret it.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Heh, don't think I could disagree more with you here. Dach has elite upside. Krebs might not be elite but definitely has 1st line potential. Turcotte I only recently started watching more closely and while he has some stuff he needs to work on he has the smarts, skill and speed to be a 1st liner (if not an elite player) as well.

I think if you have a pick in the top10 and move it, you're likely going to regret it.

Especially with it being an expansion protected asset. Unless we have a rare opportunity where the pick can be moved for a REAL top pair dman or top line forward who are under a great contract and young (just wont happen), we have to take the patient approach here. Plenty of guys to like all the way up to pick 20 IMO.

 

[lakai17]

I don't see it. His offensive numbers are quite below what Yamamoto put up in his draft year and he is on an offensive power house.

What's your opinion on Pelletier then?

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Dach....?....Krebs....?

 

[McDrai]

Connor McMichael. I want to see the many gaffes Kevin Quinn will make with Connor McMichael and Connor McDavid on the same team

 

[CycloneSweep]

What's your opinion on Pelletier then?

Putting up similar numbers to Yamamoto in a higher offensive league.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Especially with it being an expansion protected asset. Unless we have a rare opportunity where the pick can be moved for a REAL top pair dman or top line forward who are under a great contract and young (just wont happen), we have to take the patient approach here. Plenty of guys to like all the way up to pick 20 IMO.

Ahh. If it's such a good draft we should ell RNH for picks then.

 

[McDNicks17]

I don't see it. His offensive numbers are quite below what Yamamoto put up in his draft year and he is on an offensive power house.

Yamamoto was pretty close to a year older in his draft year with an extra year in the CHL to boot.


That's basically why I'm dead set against taking a guy like Leason. Older WHL forwards have close to the worst success rate for NHL prospects.

The second best WHL forward in the NHL with a late birthday(Sept15-Dec31) is Colton Sissons at 206th in league scoring.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Ahh. If it's such a good draft we should ell RNH for picks then.

What!? Most of us are saying don't trade our pick because we will probably get a guy better for our cap and system than we will in a trade. Nobody is saying trade RNH or any of our other keeper assets for picks ...