The 2022 NHL Draft Thread v3

[lanky]

I think generally, the players that are seen as low risk, are actually more likely to underperform.
The players labeled as high risk are more likely to succeed because they have the special skill that it takes to be in the NHL. It's a hard league to contribute to, so there's risk in all players. The ones with higher upside are more likely to get there.

 

[rt]

I think generally, the players that are seen as low risk, are actually more likely to underperform.
The players labeled as high risk are more likely to succeed because they have the special skill that it takes to be in the NHL. It's a hard league to contribute to, so there's risk in all players. The ones with higher upside are more likely to get there.

I think that’s true a lot of the time. But I also think there’s something to be said players that make simple plays and have the tools to do it well. Like Nathan Gaucher, as an example. I love this player because he always just does the most obvious thing and has the physical gifts required to pull it off.

 

[tucknroll]

I think generally, the players that are seen as low risk, are actually more likely to underperform.
The players labeled as high risk are more likely to succeed because they have the special skill that it takes to be in the NHL. It's a hard league to contribute to, so there's risk in all players. The ones with higher upside are more likely to get there.

Agreed.
I believe those are typically the players who are "good at everything, but great at nothing" types. I think players in the top 10 need to be weighed by the highest ceiling mixed with the highest chance of achieving it. Top 10-20 is whoever is falling or had a wart people put too much weight in. That's a big reason "size" isn't a thing I would target in the draft, if a player as it along with the skill that's great. But personally I'd never make it a reason to draft a player.

 

[hbk]

Mateychuk having himself a game today. 2 goals and an assist so far. Its the second period. He’s another Spurgeon. In on everything

 

[rt]

Mateychuk having himself a game today. 2 goals and an assist so far. Its the second period. He’s another Spurgeon. In on everything

He's always all over the ice. He's everywhere, all the time. Love his energy and skill. Huge fan. One of the most fun to watch, entertaining players in the draft. Really good interview, too. Great energy, all-around.

 

[rt]

I will change this so much in the next couple of months. Guys will move 20 spots up or down on this list. I refuse to be judged by it until June. Haha. But I'm going to post it anyway, even though I hate posting lists.

Rank	Name	Position	League
1	Shane Wright	C	OHL
2	Juraj Slafkovsky	W	Liiga
3	Simon Nemec	RD	SVK
4	Logan Cooley	C	USHL
5	Matthew Savoie	C	WHL
6	David Jiricek	RD	Extraliga
7	Cutter Gauthier	C	USHL
8	Conor Geekie	C	WHL
9	Frank Nazar	C	USHL
10	Denton Mateychuk	LD	WHL
11	Pavel Mintyukov	LD	OHL
12	Marco Kasper	C	SHL
13	Joakim Kemell	W	Liiga
14	Danila Yurov	W	MHL
15	Brad Lambert	W	Liiga
16	Rutger McGroarty	W	USHL
17	Lian Bichsel	LD	SHL
18	Ryan Chesley	RD	USHL
19	Nathan Gaucher	C	QMJHL
20	Liam Ohgren	W	SHL
21	Filip Mesar	W	SVK
22	Mats Lindgren	LD	WHL
23	Kevin Korchisnki	LD	WHL
24	Luca Del Bel Belluz	C	OHL
25	Owen Pickering	LD	WHL
26	Owen Beck	C	OHL
27	Ty Nelson	RD	OHL
28	Jack Hughes	C	NCAA
29	Jiri Kulich	C	Extraliga
30	Jonathan Lekkerimaki	W	SHL
31	Isaac Howard	W	USHL
32	Matthew Seminoff	W	WHL
33	Ivan Miroshnichenko	W	VHL
34	Gleb Trikozov	W	VHL
35	Alexander Perevalov	W	MHL
36	Noah Warren	RD	QMJHL
37	Tristan Luneau	RD	QMJHL
38	Sam Rinzel	RD	USHL
39	Filip Bystedt	C	SHL
40	Matyas Sapovaliv	C	OHL
41	Calle Odelius	LD	SHL
42	Danny Zhilkin	C	OHL
43	Servac Petrovsky	C	OHL
44	Isaiah George	LD	OHL
45	Christian Kyrou	RD	OHL
46	Simon Forsmark	LD	SHL
47	Elias Salomonsson	RD	SHL
48	Jagger Firkus	W	WHL
49	Maveric Lamoureaux	RD	QMJHL
50	Jake Livanavage	LD	USHL

 

[rt]

^ I already want to put Nelson higher. And Kyrou. And Beck feels a little high.

It's easy to pick out one guy here or there. But when you actually have to cram 50 kids into a top 50 and then actually move them around, relative to the other kids on the list, it gets REALLY hard to do.

Part of me just prefers to make a "favorites" list, rather than a ranking. My favorites are...

- Cutter Gauthier (C)
- Denton Mateychuk (LD)
- Marco Kasper (C)
- Rutger McGroarty (W)
- Ryan Chesley (RD)
- Nathan Gaucher (C)
- Ty Nelson (RD)
- Matthew Seminoff (favorite player in the draft)
- Noah Warren (RD)
- Servac Petrovsky (C)
- Jake Livanavage (LD)
- Cole Spicer (C)
- Charlie Leddy (RD)
- Joshua Davies (W)
- Liam Arnsby (C)

^ If I have to choose a "Top 15 Favorites" (Sam Savoie is an HM, here...)

 

[rt]

I ran the two sims and only took guys who were available on BOTH sims at my picks, and went straight off my own list, BPA, regardless of previous picks. I ended up with a much more realistic version of a draft haul, without relying on knowing that they have certain guys way too low.

1. 1-1: Shane Wright - C - (1)
2. 1-30: Ryan Chesley - RD - (18)
3. 1-32: Mats Lindgren - LD - (22)
4. 2-33: Owen Pickering - LD - (25)
5. 2-38: Matthew Seminoff - W - (32)
6. 2-43: Noah Warren - RD - (36)
7. 2-44: Matyas Sapovaliv - C - (40)
8. 3-65: Servac Petrovsky - C - (43)

^ I'd be thrilled with that. Totally shores up our prospect blueline and center depth. Would be a huge haul.

 

[rt]

C:
Wright
Hayton
Sapovaliv
McBain
Smith
Petrovsky

D:
Moser-Chesley
Lindgren-Soderstrom
Pickering-Warren
Kolyachonok-Timmins

 

[Nagatoarek]

Gaucher and LDBB with our other two 1sts. Add those two to Hayton and Raty. And suddenly we’ve got ridiculous center depth. Just need to hit a homerun at center next draft. Like Fantilli or Bedard or even Yager or Dvorsky. Or really any of several top young Cs.

I have to say, it's sad to see Leo Carlsson never mentioned in the promising Centers of next draft. He's been playing a full season in SHL as a 16 (now 17) year old and hasn't looked out of place. And I have yet to see any big weak points in his game.

 

[Sinurgy]

I disagree. There shouldn't be a straight forward way of securing 1OA. The current system has that right.

I think the Doan approach would be better - so tanking isn't the goal. But even with that, a lottery would still be appropriate.

There's a hell of a lot of middle ground between the system in place now and a straight forward way of securing 1OA!

 

[Grimes]

Last two months I haven't been as on top of my prospect watching/reading. But one of the most surprising and pleasing thing I have seen is how far Ryan Chelsey has fallen. Wasn't he often ranked top 15 before the season began? I mean he is a 6 foot RD who was considered a two-way guy but is contributing pretty significantly in the US development league. Sucks that BA seems to be allergic to drafting USHL players.

I do think Chelsey is the exact type of player that Lanky brought up, low risk medium reward. But if when you have as many picks as we do I think for every high risk high reward player I want to draft a guy that is going to contribute to the team. If we grab him without having to move up at all I'm going to be STOKED.

Speaking of fallers, what happened to Casey?

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

I have to say, it's sad to see Leo Carlsson never mentioned in the promising Centers of next draft. He's been playing a full season in SHL as a 16 (now 17) year old and hasn't looked out of place. And I have yet to see any big weak points in his game.

I mention Carlsson all the time, I see him along with the other top C's for next draft

 

[brakeyawself]

This draft has a ton of talent. And I think this is the draft to take a center, especially with the depth Yotes have on the wings now, Or the youth they have on the wings. And if not a center a D. All though I still think keeping Chychrun and taking a center is the way to go, rather than trading Chychrun for "depth" and "pieces".

Nemec and Jiricek would both be amazing choices. But any of Wright, Cooley, Savoie, Nazar, Geekie. in that order for me personally, and I think it's going to be terrific. But it will probably be one of those top 5. Which to me are a tier and more above Lambert and Kasper, DelBel etc..

I like Kasper, Beck, DelBelBelluz and Lambert as deeper plausible centers. But either way. Lekker I think ends up a winger. I think the 4 at least, Wright, Cooley, Savoie, Nazar are going to be legit 1C's in the NHL, with Geekie more of a high ceiling with a bit of risk .

Actually think Cooley has the highest offensive upside. While Wright to me is a safer pick, maybe a bit of John Toews in him. Geekie I still have some concerns about skating, but the ceiling is huge. Nazar to me is a safer choice than Geekie, so would depend if wanted to go for ceiling and size, or speed, skill and offense. Savoie has the offensive ability and skating, but just worry his size might hinder him a bit.

But I think the Yotes will have high enough position to get one of Wright or Cooley. Slafkovsky is going to be terrific, but I just think you have to take a center in this draft and with Keller, Gauthier, Crouse, Maccelli etc.. I think the Yotes will be fine on the wing long term.

Hayton looks like he will actually figure things out and I think be a really good 2C. So getting a 1C in this draft will sure up that top 6 in my mind. Which I think you have to do above going for a D like Nemec or Jiricek, or a winger like Slaf. And just in case Wright and Cooley both go off the board. Savoie, Nazar and Geekie would be fine 2nd options.

There should still be a few really good gambles on D and Winger with the later two 1st round picks. Having the picks really to me makes it an easy choice to go center first.

 

[rt]

This draft has a ton of talent. And I think this is the draft to take a center, especially with the depth Yotes have on the wings now, Or the youth they have on the wings. And if not a center a D. All though I still think keeping Chychrun and taking a center is the way to go, rather than trading Chychrun for "depth" and "pieces".

Nemec and Jiricek would both be amazing choices. But any of Wright, Cooley, Savoie, Nazar, Geekie. in that order for me personally, and I think it's going to be terrific. But it will probably be one of those top 5. Which to me are a tier and more above Lambert and Kasper, DelBel etc..

I like Kasper, Beck, DelBelBelluz and Lambert as deeper plausible centers. But either way. Lekker I think ends up a winger. I think the 4 at least, Wright, Cooley, Savoie, Nazar are going to be legit 1C's in the NHL, with Geekie more of a high ceiling with a bit of risk .

Actually think Cooley has the highest offensive upside. While Wright to me is a safer pick, maybe a bit of John Toews in him. Geekie I still have some concerns about skating, but the ceiling is huge. Nazar to me is a safer choice than Geekie, so would depend if wanted to go for ceiling and size, or speed, skill and offense. Savoie has the offensive ability and skating, but just worry his size might hinder him a bit.

But I think the Yotes will have high enough position to get one of Wright or Cooley. Slafkovsky is going to be terrific, but I just think you have to take a center in this draft and with Keller, Gauthier, Crouse, Maccelli etc.. I think the Yotes will be fine on the wing long term.

Hayton looks like he will actually figure things out and I think be a really good 2C. So getting a 1C in this draft will sure up that top 6 in my mind. Which I think you have to do above going for a D like Nemec or Jiricek, or a winger like Slaf. And just in case Wright and Cooley both go off the board. Savoie, Nazar and Geekie would be fine 2nd options.

There should still be a few really good gambles on D and Winger with the later two 1st round picks. Having the picks really to me makes it an easy choice to go center first.

Helped you out there.

 

[brakeyawself]

Helped you out there

forget sometimes that some people have difficult time with blocks.

 

[Jakey53]

I will change this so much in the next couple of months. Guys will move 20 spots up or down on this list. I refuse to be judged by it until June. Haha. But I'm going to post it anyway, even though I hate posting lists.

Rank	Name	Position	League
1	Shane Wright	C	OHL
2	Juraj Slafkovsky	W	Liiga
3	Simon Nemec	RD	SVK
4	Logan Cooley	C	USHL
5	Matthew Savoie	C	WHL
6	David Jiricek	RD	Extraliga
7	Cutter Gauthier	C	USHL
8	Conor Geekie	C	WHL
9	Frank Nazar	C	USHL
10	Denton Mateychuk	LD	WHL
11	Pavel Mintyukov	LD	OHL
12	Marco Kasper	C	SHL
13	Joakim Kemell	W	Liiga
14	Danila Yurov	W	MHL
15	Brad Lambert	W	Liiga
16	Rutger McGroarty	W	USHL
17	Lian Bichsel	LD	SHL
18	Ryan Chesley	RD	USHL
19	Nathan Gaucher	C	QMJHL
20	Liam Ohgren	W	SHL
21	Filip Mesar	W	SVK
22	Mats Lindgren	LD	WHL
23	Kevin Korchisnki	LD	WHL
24	Luca Del Bel Belluz	C	OHL
25	Owen Pickering	LD	WHL
26	Owen Beck	C	OHL
27	Ty Nelson	RD	OHL
28	Jack Hughes	C	NCAA
29	Jiri Kulich	C	Extraliga
30	Jonathan Lekkerimaki	W	SHL
31	Isaac Howard	W	USHL
32	Matthew Seminoff	W	WHL
33	Ivan Miroshnichenko	W	VHL
34	Gleb Trikozov	W	VHL
35	Alexander Perevalov	W	MHL
36	Noah Warren	RD	QMJHL
37	Tristan Luneau	RD	QMJHL
38	Sam Rinzel	RD	USHL
39	Filip Bystedt	C	SHL
40	Matyas Sapovaliv	C	OHL
41	Calle Odelius	LD	SHL
42	Danny Zhilkin	C	OHL
43	Servac Petrovsky	C	OHL
44	Isaiah George	LD	OHL
45	Christian Kyrou	RD	OHL
46	Simon Forsmark	LD	SHL
47	Elias Salomonsson	RD	SHL
48	Jagger Firkus	W	WHL
49	Maveric Lamoureaux	RD	QMJHL
50	Jake Livanavage	LD	USHL

Slafkovsky is a wing? That's the only winger you have listed in your top 12. We need C and D. I always say BPA, is he that much better than the next three or four on your list? We all know BA likes big, but is size some of the allure with Slafkovsky? End of the day it won't matter anyways. We are picking 1st.

 

[rt]

Slafkovsky is a wing? That's the only winger you have listed in your top 12. We need C and D. I always say BPA, is he that much better than the next three or four on your list? We all know BA likes big, but is size some of the allure with Slafkovsky? End of the day it won't matter anyways. We are picking 1st.

Yes Slafkovsky is a wing. I agree with BPA. That’s why I have him 2nd. I like him better than that next group of centers.

 

[Jakey53]

Yes Slafkovsky is a wing. I agree with BPA. That’s why I have him 2nd. I like him better than that next group of centers.

Who in the NHL do you compare him to?

 

[rt]

Who in the NHL do you compare him to?

Mikko Rantanen. Which is why I’m very tempted to place him 1st overall.

 

[Grimes]

Have they announced when the lotto will be?

 

[lanky]

Have they announced when the lotto will be?

Unofficial sources I've seen show May 16. Not sure if credible.

 

[Nagatoarek]

I mention Carlsson all the time, I see him along with the other top C's for next draft

I must've missed that, my apologies!

Planning on watching him live as many times as I can in the upcoming season. He's been having a good role in the top 9 this season and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a bigger role this coming one.

It should also be said that he plays for Örebro HK, which are pretty known not to play youth and instead go out and buy players. Something that looks to be changing now with Leo Carlsson as well as Forsmark who is expected within the first two rounds of this coming draft. Safe to say I'm really hyped on this kid.

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

I agree. And it’s ridiculous. Cale Makar is 5’11 and is going to win the Norris this year. Adam Fox is 5’11 and won the Norris last year. Mark Giordano is 5’11 and won the year before.

Unrelated to this discussion, but It’s always been extremely funny to me that a 5’11 200lb player is “small” but a 6’1 185lb player is “big”.

It's funny, if you want to take size into account for defenseman, wingspan is probably the better measurement anyway

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

At this point, I'd be happy with any of Wright, Slafkosvky, Jiricek, Nemec or Cooley.

I know we'll pick at least 3rd or better and although I'd like to win in order to pick Wright, any of the other guys on the list should significantly add to the existing core to make us better. Might not be next year (albeit everyone but Wright), but the following year they should be ready to contribute.