Prospect Info: The 2020 Entry NHL Draft Thread

[S E P H]

I'd take Laf. Guaranteed Mackinnon-level player.

Nah, Lafreniere is going to be great player, but I am with Button in terms of I wouldn't take him over McDavid, MacKinnon, or Matthews, and I would personally add Dahlin and Eichel to that list as well.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Nah, Lafreniere is going to be great player, but I am with Button in terms of I wouldn't take him over McDavid, MacKinnon, or Matthews, and I would personally add Dahlin and Eichel to that list as well.

What do you think about Tavares as a comp?

Different positions obviously, but both NHL ready with dominating WJ performances, and similar hype as #1 overall picks.

 

[Balthazar]

Why did they HAD to have the lottery before the playoffs? It screws with competitiveness of the playoffs. Imagine it’s 2-2 between the Pens and the Habs and both Malkin and Crosby are injured and out of the playoffs. Wouldn’t it be tempting to tank one game for a shot at Lafrenière?

The players don't give a shit about draft picks and a 12% chance of getting a prospect that might end up stealing their spot on the team. They won't take a dive for that. Same for coaches, they just want to win short term and make the playoffs.

 

[S E P H]

What do you think about Tavares as a comp?

Different positions obviously, but both NHL ready with dominating WJ performances, and similar hype as #1 overall picks.

Dominating WJC performances is absolutely nothing to me personally. I think Tavares got considerable hype considering he was expectational status - Lafreniere was not - and him playing in the OHL booms that even more (Mecca for junior hockey). Tavares is better simply because he plays a superior position, Lafreniere is less important because wingers in general are less important to win or lose. And it's hard to for me to compare a junior, regardless of how good he is to a player who's sort of been a 90 point player in the show. If I were to make an educated guess, I think Alexis will be around that 35 - 40 mark consistently and in his prime he could reach 35 - 50, which is similar to Tavares. However, I suggest is that Tavares is on a bit higher level even with some down seasons here and there. Lafreniere does everything very well, but I am not sure he's elite at something like McDavid is with speed, Crosby is with playmaking, or Ovechkin is with scoring. All those players have at least a trait to help them surpass the very good threshold and into the elite category. I can't think of something Lafreniere has that's elite to me or a central trait, maybe consistency could be that, but all those players I mentioned all put up ridiculous numbers in their respected leagues as well.

E: Wait, why aren't we using the second thread?

 

[McMetal]

The players don't give a shit about draft picks and a 12% chance of getting a prospect that might end up stealing their spot on the team. They won't take a dive for that. Same for coaches, they just want to win short term and make the playoffs.

Yeah, coaches especially need to get results to keep their jobs. If they lose the play-in round, they may not even get the benefits of coaching Lafs.

That being said, it is still incredibly stupid to have two lottery drawings. Even if he worst case scenario of a play-in team winning 1OA didn't happen, it was a dumb idea to begin with.

 

[Metallo]

The players don't give a shit about draft picks and a 12% chance of getting a prospect that might end up stealing their spot on the team. They won't take a dive for that. Same for coaches, they just want to win short term and make the playoffs.

Yet we have a lottery against tanking.

My point is not the actual tanking. It’s the situation created that could lead to tanking. A situation that was 100% avoidable.

 

[McMetal]

Yet we have a lottery against tanking.

My point is not the actual tanking. It’s the situation created that could lead to tanking. A situation that was 100% avoidable.

The point is that tanking isn't something players or coaches do, it's GMs. Selling star players for futures, keeping good prospects in the minors, that sort of thing is how organizations tank. So there isn't really much Bergevin could conceivably do to tank a playoff series unless he orders the coach to not start Price or something like that (which is insane and something that would never happen).

 

[Metallo]

The point is that tanking isn't something players or coaches do, it's GMs. Selling star players for futures, keeping good prospects in the minors, that sort of thing is how organizations tank. So there isn't really much Bergevin could conceivably do to tank a playoff series unless he orders the coach to not start Price or something like that (which is insane and something that would never happen).

It’s like conflict of interest, it does not need to happen to be bad, just the appearance is sufficient.

However unlikely, tanking could happen and it is stupid to put teams in that spot for no good reason.

[Sidebar: There are teams that have tanked one game in the past. For example, CCCP in World Championships.]

Also my initial question was why they HAD to have the lottery before the playoffs. Nobody answered why. I do propose a why not.

 

[Foppa2118]

The players don't give a shit about draft picks and a 12% chance of getting a prospect that might end up stealing their spot on the team. They won't take a dive for that. Same for coaches, they just want to win short term and make the playoffs.

We know that GM's are doing a lot of the tanking with trades, but I'm not convinced coaches don't play a part in tanking as well.

If you're on a bottom dweller, a lot of the players check out for the year pretty early, and it's the coaches job to keep them focused and motivated.

If that coach sees a generational player or an elite franchise player ready to step in next season and be his best player for the next few years, I'm not sure he's pushing his players as much as he would if they didn't have a 1st that year.

IMO they just need to make the odds better for bad teams, but limit the number of 1st overall picks a team can get in a 10 year span to like 1 or 2.

Look at the Avs. They only needed one 1st to build a perennial contender, though it took longer because of Joe's patience with trades. The Avs built the future core of this team with one 1st (MacK) one 2nd (Landy) two 4th's (Makar and Byram) and one 10th overall pick (Rantanen).

If you're a bad team every year, and you can't rebuild with a 1st overall and a bunch of 2nd and 3rd's overall, then you're a shitty GM and you don't deserve to be given 1st rounders every year until your team becomes successful DESPITE you.

 

[McMetal]

If that coach sees a generational player or an elite franchise player ready to step in next season and be his best player for the next few years, I'm not sure he's pushing his players as much as he would if they didn't have a 1st that year.

Yeah, but if that coach's team bottoms out, he probably is going to get fired before he had a chance to coach that hotshot prospect. So I don't buy that coaches are into tanking at all. If your team is bad enough, it might make it harder to get future coaching jobs, too. There's little to no motivation for a coach to deliberately hurt his own team for a draft pick he may not even be around to benefit from.

 

[Foppa2118]

Yeah, but if that coach's team bottoms out, he probably is going to get fired before he had a chance to coach that hotshot prospect. So I don't buy that coaches are into tanking at all. If your team is bad enough, it might make it harder to get future coaching jobs, too. There's little to no motivation for a coach to deliberately hurt his own team for a draft pick he may not even be around to benefit from.

I'm not necessarily saying the coach would consciously hurt his team, I'm saying his motivation level will wane if he thinks he's getting fired anyway, or if he knows he just got hired and will have another season with a 1st overall pick if they tank.

It's not really the coach doing something to hurt the team, it's the coach not doing his job as well as he would normally, that in a way hurts the team, because he's responsible for getting the most out of his players.

Just like the players on bad teams a month away from golfing, or going to the lake, or their annual vegas trip will see their motivation level drop. Same with someone like Girard who just signed a big long term contract will see his motivation level dip a little to start the next season.

In this case, it's just a 'we're done for the season" kind of attitude that infests the entire organization when you're a bottom dweller on it's way to last overall, and one of your only sources of hope is that potential 1st overall franchise player.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

It’s like conflict of interest, it does not need to happen to be bad, just the appearance is sufficient.

However unlikely, tanking could happen and it is stupid to put teams in that spot for no good reason.

[Sidebar: There are teams that have tanked one game in the past. For example, CCCP in World Championships.]

Also my initial question was why they HAD to have the lottery before the playoffs. Nobody answered why. I do propose a why not.

My thought was the NHL was simply starving to give some red meat to fans after how successful the NFL draft appeared to go.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Dominating WJC performances is absolutely nothing to me personally. I think Tavares got considerable hype considering he was expectational status - Lafreniere was not - and him playing in the OHL booms that even more (Mecca for junior hockey). Tavares is better simply because he plays a superior position, Lafreniere is less important because wingers in general are less important to win or lose. And it's hard to for me to compare a junior, regardless of how good he is to a player who's sort of been a 90 point player in the show. If I were to make an educated guess, I think Alexis will be around that 35 - 40 mark consistently and in his prime he could reach 35 - 50, which is similar to Tavares. However, I suggest is that Tavares is on a bit higher level even with some down seasons here and there. Lafreniere does everything very well, but I am not sure he's elite at something like McDavid is with speed, Crosby is with playmaking, or Ovechkin is with scoring. All those players have at least a trait to help them surpass the very good threshold and into the elite category. I can't think of something Lafreniere has that's elite to me or a central trait, maybe consistency could be that, but all those players I mentioned all put up ridiculous numbers in their respected leagues as well.

E: Wait, why aren't we using the second thread?

How about Lafreniere and Huberdeau as comps? Just watching highlights that's who Lafreniere kinda looks like to me. Lafreniere plays with more sand paper.

 

[S E P H]

How about Lafreniere and Huberdeau as comps? Just watching highlights that's who Lafreniere kinda looks like to me. Lafreniere plays with more sand paper.

Yeah, I like that, Laf with more of an edge but I don't think his playmaking is as good as Huderbeau's. Now with that said, I think Lafreniere does a better job in creating goals for himself which is why you can say he's more talented.

 

[Balthazar]

My thought was the NHL was simply starving to give some red meat to fans after how successful the NFL draft appeared to go.

That was decided a while ago and pretty much the only logical explanation is they originally thought they'd be able to make announcements during the lottery to hype the upcoming playoffs (Hub cities, etc) but couldn't.

 

[Pokecheque]

Offhand question, was it the WJC or Memorial Cup tournament where Huberdeau's value went way up and Couturier's went down?

 

[S E P H]

Huberdeau had one of the best Memorial Cup runs I've ever seen a player have, I think he's up there with MacKinnon as the single handily best. Couturier was a subject towards being overscouted, actually he might be one of the biggest overscouted prospects in any draft that I've seen as well. Avs scouts didn't see it that way though, they thought extremely high of him and I think they were comparing him as the next Getzlaf in terms of point production in one of their behind the scene videos.

 

[Balthazar]

Grant McCagg on TSN 690 said that Rossi may not even go top 10 because of his size and that Jack Hughes may end up playing wing because it's too tough to play center at that size in the NHL.

He says that Brayden Point is the only successful sub 5'10 1C since Marcel Dionne 45 years ago. He also thinks both Drysdale and Sanderson will go in the top 5 like Makar and Heiskanen in 2017.

Skip 6:00 for the dmen stuff and 10:00 for Rossi/Hughes.

McCagg: Expect Sanderson and Drysdale to go in top 5

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Grant McCagg on TSN 690 said that Rossi may not even go top 10 because of his size and that Jack Hughes may end up playing wing because it's too tough to play center at that size in the NHL.

He says that Brayden Point is the only successful sub 5'10 1C since Marcel Dionne 45 years ago. He also thinks both Drysdale and Sanderson will go in the top 5 like Makar and Heiskanen in 2017.

Skip 6:00 for the dmen stuff and 10:00 for Rossi/Hughes.

McCagg: Expect Sanderson and Drysdale to go in top 5

I’m still a believer in Hughes. He had an awful rookie season, but I think he’ll stick at centre.

Sanderson potentially going top-5 is interesting, but I could see it. Defenceman often go earlier than expected. Pretty much the only way to get elite defenceman is to draft them.

 

[Balthazar]

ISanderson potentially going top-5 is interesting, but I could see it. Defenceman often go earlier than expected. Pretty much the only way to get elite defenceman is to draft them.

He has Sanderson at #3 ahead of Byfield.

I'd say "experts" these days are pretty much 50-50 between Drysdale and Sanderson. The late rising of Sanderson reminds me a lot of Heiskanen's.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

He has Sanderson at #3 ahead of Byfield.

I'd say "experts" these days are pretty much 50-50 between Drysdale and Sanderson. The late rising of Sanderson reminds me a lot of Heiskanen's.

Interesting. I didn’t realize Sanderson was rising to that degree. I’ll be very curious to see what Detroit does at 4.

 

[McMetal]

Grant McCagg on TSN 690 said that Rossi may not even go top 10 because of his size and that Jack Hughes may end up playing wing because it's too tough to play center at that size in the NHL.

He says that Brayden Point is the only successful sub 5'10 1C since Marcel Dionne 45 years ago. He also thinks both Drysdale and Sanderson will go in the top 5 like Makar and Heiskanen in 2017.

Skip 6:00 for the dmen stuff and 10:00 for Rossi/Hughes.

McCagg: Expect Sanderson and Drysdale to go in top 5

What about Tyler Johnson? Guy's not a superstar but he seems to be fine at center for his career. Unless his listing as a C is one of those things like how Jost is listed as C but never plays there. I don't watch Tampa enough to be sure.

 

[Balthazar]

Interesting. I didn’t realize Sanderson was rising to that degree. I’ll be very curious to see what Detroit does at 4.

It's well known that Yzerman wants Stutzle and I'd say there's a decent chance that the Wings trade up to get him while the Kings pick their defenseman at #4.

Based on everything I heard it sounds like the Kings were locked on picking one of the two dmen before the lottery...here's why:

1- They reportedly feel like they have a ton of center depth
2- We know that pre-lottery they didn't interview Byfield but interviewed other potential top picks
3- Blake now sees "4 potential players" at #2 (while everyone else agrees that it's a tier of 2 players), it's reasonable to believe that the extra 2 are the dmen
4- Biggest organisational need by far is defense and Blake thinks particularly highly of defensemen in general

So yeah, I could see that happening. If Blake picks Stuzle at #2 then I could see Yzerman picking Sanderson to pair with Seider in the future, that could potentially become a great top pairing in the NHL...but let's ask @henchman24 he knows more about Yzerman than I do.

 

[Balthazar]

What about Tyler Johnson? Guy's not a superstar but he seems to be fine at center for his career. Unless his listing as a C is one of those things like how Jost is listed as C but never plays there. I don't watch Tampa enough to be sure.

He was talking about small successful 1C in the NHL. Tyler Johnson plays on the 3rd line and his best season is 50 pts.

 

[McMetal]

He was talking about small successful 1C in the NHL. Tyler Johnson plays on the 3rd line and his best season is 50 pts.

Oh, I missed the "1" in front of the C there. TJ is/was a good middle six C but never was a first liner.

I still have faith in Hughes though, his skating is so good I think he can make it work. People are overreacting to his rookie season too much. His team was a shambles and I suspect the locker room was ugly as well.