The 2019-20 Tank Command Thread - Part VI

[Sweatred]

The only bad option remaining is 5/6. We can survive 4/5 and 4/6. The late movement of both picks to the 2/3 spots secured this draft for the Sens. No idea how they got there on the last day of the season. I cringed all season with those wins/loser points. It’s time for the Sens to not lose a draft!!!

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I think there's a limited amount of tinkering they can do. Both picks outside the top 6 could only happen with major tinkering and then a major failure

The tinkering has to be pretty modest. Teams have built up draft pick war chests around this draft and messing with that in a significant way is in effect going back and slightly altering the trade value of every trade related to this draft.

The league also wants parity. That's been very clear in the bettman regime. There's no story here where Lafreniere ends up in Tampa...well if there is, the world will have been shut down for a couple of years. Hopefully we survive it

The whole thing is going to be impossible for the NHL to dole out completely fairly. I have a feeling they might try to compromise by having a lotto for perhaps the top 5 picks, (or maybe even more than 5) but with really poor odds for the top 15 or so teams. But, we all know how that works...somehow those one in a million longshots seem to find a way to sneak in there and get a few spots in there.

At this juncture, I just wouldn't bet on 5 & 6 being the worst case scenario. I wish it was...but at the same time, that is one heck of a lot better than what we thought we'd get back in October!

 

[Cosmix]

What's everyone's worst case acceptable scenario? Assuming they don't screw with the odds. Mathematically it's 5 and 6, which would be soul crushing.

I think any two in the top 4 would work for me

Worst case: 5 and 6.
Hoped for: 1 and 3
Expectation: 1 of top 3 and then 1 of 4 to 6.

 

[Cosmix]

This morning my fickle finger of fate had the 1 and 2 top picks twice in about 12 button pushes. Two other #1s as well. This is my lucky day. Hoping for another at the draft day.

 

[guyzeur]

In theory we could get picks 1, 2 and 4?

 

[Sweatred]

In theory we could get picks 1, 2 and 4?

NYI is top 3 protected and they can’t win 4OA.

 

[BondraTime]

In theory we could get picks 1, 2 and 4?

No, unfortunately we can't

 

[HSF]

In theory we could get picks 1, 2 and 4?

no, 1 2 and wherever the NYI pick is unless we trade up

 

[Sweatred]

In theory we could get picks 1, 2 and 4?

NYI is top 3 protected and they can’t win 4OA.

 

[Stylizer1]

It seems Ottawa might be in a better place than most teams seeing as we are already well below the cap. Teams up against it will have to shed salary and will most likely be top heavy like the year the cap was instituted. Seeing as all of our roster is made up of cheap entry level/ short term vet deals we will have a lot more flexibility when it comes to build a deep roster. That is however if Melnyk see's this as an opportunity to even cheap out further and cry poor. He was dumb not to sell but if he is in it now for the long run he might be in pretty good shape.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

It seems Ottawa might be in a better place than most teams seeing as we are already well below the cap. Teams up against it will have to shed salary and will most likely be top heavy like the year the cap was instituted. Seeing as all of our roster is made up of cheap entry level/ short term vet deals we will have a lot more flexibility when it comes to build a deep roster. That is however if Melnyk see's this as an opportunity to even cheap out further and cry poor. He was dumb not to sell but if he is in it now for the long run he might be in pretty good shape.

I haven't seen this team take advantage of cap flexibility at any point over the last 10 years so I don't expect much.

 

[Stylizer1]

I haven't seen this team take advantage of cap flexibility at any point over the last 10 years so I don't expect much.

If there was a time to take advantage of it now would be it.

 

[Sweatred]

I can’t see the NHL not artificially raising the salary cap to where it projected to be for next season. If anything it is a benefit for playoff teams. More of them are in cap trouble etc and at least will get this benefit while non playoff teams hold their draft positions.

 

[JD1]

I can’t see the NHL not artificially raising the salary cap to where it projected to be for next season. If anything it is a benefit for playoff teams. More of them are in cap trouble etc and at least will get this benefit while non playoff teams hold their draft positions.

The problem is that the revenue is not there to support that...if it was supposed to be 4 billion and ends up 3 billion this year, which might be optimistic, and next year is plagued with attendance woes league wide which between fear and loss of income to buy tickets it will be...how can the cap go up? I don't see any solution to this without the players taking a fairly significant short term salary hit....and they'd have zero moral ground to complain publicly about it given even the lowest paid guy won't have to struggle to get by on a reduced salary of say 500k.

 

[Micklebot]

The problem is that the revenue is not there to support that...if it was supposed to be 4 billion and ends up 3 billion this year, which might be optimistic, and next year is plagued with attendance woes league wide which between fear and loss of income to buy tickets it will be...how can the cap go up? I don't see any solution to this without the players taking a fairly significant short term salary hit....and they'd have zero moral ground to complain publicly about it given even the lowest paid guy won't have to struggle to get by on a reduced salary of say 500k.

Salary cap is kind of an artificial construct anyways. Its a projection based on expected revenues but escrow is what really gets them to the 50/50 split in HRR.

Lowering the cap to realistic hrr projections would likely require compliance buyouts which would create winners and losers amoung the players. I think a system where the cap goes up as initially forecast would ensure the UFA don't end up screwed, then increase the escrow hold back across all players to account for the reality that the league won't hit the projected HRR.

 

[TheDebater]

The problem is that the revenue is not there to support that...if it was supposed to be 4 billion and ends up 3 billion this year, which might be optimistic, and next year is plagued with attendance woes league wide which between fear and loss of income to buy tickets it will be...how can the cap go up? I don't see any solution to this without the players taking a fairly significant short term salary hit....and they'd have zero moral ground to complain publicly about it given even the lowest paid guy won't have to struggle to get by on a reduced salary of say 500k.

Revenue and cap are only linked on a superficial level to maintain the integrity of the "idea" of a cap system. Teams like Toronto and the Rangers can afford 150 million dollar cap starting tomorrow it will not affect their revenue.

On the flip side, making the cap higher means nothing to teams below it or teams that spend below the cap, like Ottawa. Just because you increase the cap does not mean teams have to spend to it.

The issue is the cap floor , not ceiling. The process goes as such the cap ceiling is increased so too is the cap floor and that is where teams start to struggle to keep up, again like Ottawa. There is a reason the Sens have a bunch of players on the roster on IR that will never play a game for us.

The NHL could hypothetically increase the cap to help playoff teams remain competitive, while at the same time maintain or even dropping the cap floor to help the teams with less financial power remain competitive.

The cap is just a number, removing the entire cap tomorrow will have no bearing on the overall success of the league financially.

 

[DJB]

There is a big downside of the league starts again let's say in late July or August.

Both Karlsson and Hertl will be healthy and could return.

 

[Six Assets]

There is a big downside of the league starts again let's say in late July or August.

Both Karlsson and Hertl will be healthy and could return.

lol NHL isn't going to bother with regular season games

 

[HSF]

There is a big downside of the league starts again let's say in late July or August.

Both Karlsson and Hertl will be healthy and could return.

reg season won't happen

there is no point in having non playoff teams come back and play

 

[The Lewler]

All of this is artificially constructed , and will modified as such .

hell its more apparent than ever that the very foundational beliefs about economics are also completely made up

 

[Sweatred]

reg season won't happen

there is no point in having non playoff teams come back and play

Agreed - no point in players ramping up a 1-3 week training camp to play 1-2 reg season games.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Tankathon.. Ran it twice today

1 and 3
1 and 2

1 and anything 4 and above would be fantastic

 

[Upgrayedd]

Fully expect to have our current position worsened when they decide what new rules there gonna implement for the lotto,that train is never late for the Ottawa Senators!

 

[Sweatred]

Fully expect to have our current position worsened when they decide what new rules there gonna implement for the lotto,that train is never late for the Ottawa Senators!

This is Bettman’s best chance to rescue Ottawa for another 10 years... or at least save him the hassle of dealing with a weak franchise. If there is any element of control in this I hope things go our way. We fell in the last two drafts.... fingers crossed it’s our turn.

 

[Cosmix]

reg season won't happen

there is no point in having non playoff teams come back and play

Initially I thought so too but that was from a fan perspective; however, from a business and revenue standpoint, it makes sense to complete the season and have a full playoff with 7 game series. I suspect that the attendance would be reduced in size to allow for social distancing which would reduce seat and arena revenues but TV viewership would go up and allow the league to retain the TV contract revenues. Then the next season could have a delayed start but remain complete.