Speculation: Teams will be reluctant to move 2020 1st rounders

[BrainyBomber]

He's the GM that signed the contracts, no idea how he wouldn't be the one accountable for them.

Yes Dubas should be but the worst contract by far has been the Marleau one signed by Lou which Dubas had to clean up. Yet Dubas gets all the blame from folks like yourself.

Dubas has only overpaid on Marner and what's that 2m max. God forbid surely this means the difference between winning a cup or not!

 

[BrainyBomber]

LOL what? Cap and Asset Management is a huge part of being a general manager in a sport with a hard cap. Sorry to break it to you. As a GM, you need to have the foresight to see when you are going to be tight to the cap vs assets on hand vs assets in the system. Dubas has had minimal foresight into his team's situation:

The Leafs are up against the cap.
Their forward cap number only decreases $3M next year and they have 4 players to resign/bring up
They will have roughly $8M to resign Muzzin, Barrie, Dermott, Ceci or fill out D corp accordingly
Michael Hutchinson is the back up at 700K

Everyone with a brain can look at this and realize Dubas is in deep **** if this team doesn't perform this year. He'll be forced to make changes to the core of a roster that has repeatedly failed in the playoffs with little wiggle room money wise

I guess ducks don't have brains then.

You miss my point. Cap crunches are the price for talent which everyone knows the Leafs have an abundance of. There was no way of avoiding this crunch unless talent was dealt for futures.

Dubas also won't be forced to make changes to the core if the season isn't a success that's your imposed constraint.

 

[Breakers]

Same song and dance
I hear this every year
My bet is Toffoli and Kreider both bring back 1sts.

 

[Sean Garrity]

Don’t tell 405, all the lottery picks are ours! I would still bet that first rounders are moved.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

I think most GMs realize that it’s tough to find sure fire top six or top four talent once you’re drafting into the 20’s. In the 2010-2017 drafts these are the players that went to become top six/four players in the 20-30 picks.

2017 - Thomas
2016 -
2015 - Boeser, Konecny
2014 - Pastrnak, Schmaltz, Kapanen
2013 - Mantha, Burakovski, Theodore
2012 - Skjei
2011 - Danault
2010 - Kuznetsov, Coyle, Nelson

So if this is a strong draft and not just over hyped you’re trading a 30% shot at an impact player down the line for a for sure impact player in the playoffs. My take is that the top ten in this draft is exceptional, after that it’s not any stronger than the past few which are the picks that will be moved.

The back half of the 1st round is usually much weaker than most fans realize. Lots of GM’s likely expect 3rd liners or 3rd pairing players from these picks.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

**** Lou Lamoriello his time in Toronto is vastly overrated

They both look the same. Kakko a little more mature.

 

[LeafsNation75]

No,but I do recall the nyi passing on Parise at 15th overall and some of my fellow NYI fans having to be pulled off the ledge, while saying Parise was going to be a stud.

I still remember the rant Pierre McGuire went on when the Islanders passed on Parise.

 

[LeafsNation75]

**** Lou Lamoriello his time in Toronto is vastly overrated

His only real move of that you could say is positive was when he traded for Frederik Andersen.

Now before someone says but he re-signed Morgan Rielly and Nazem Kadri to great contracts, what leverage did they have to where they could have negotiated for more money?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yes Dubas should be but the worst contract by far has been the Marleau one signed by Lou which Dubas had to clean up. Yet Dubas gets all the blame from folks like yourself.

Dubas has only overpaid on Marner and what's that 2m max. God forbid surely this means the difference between winning a cup or not!

I have always said that if Lou really wanted to sign Marleau he should have been strict on just giving him 2 years since that is what San Jose was offering. I also think that Babcock had some influence on Marleau getting 3 years. So I agree that Dubas doesn't deserve any blame since he never signed Marleau to begin with.

 

[simon IC]

I still think Kreider will get a 1st. Toffoli ... maybe a 1st. Pageau and Vatanen will get 2nds.

 

[Peat]

The asking price for Toffoli has been widely set at 2nd or 2nd + 5th. He only gets a 1st if things get crazy.

 

[CREW99AW]

I still remember the rant Pierre McGuire went on when the Islanders passed on Parise.

I have never liked Pierre,but he was right

 

[CREW99AW]

The asking price for Toffoli has been widely set at 2nd, 2nd + 5th. He only gets a 1st if things get crazy.

which source is saying two second rounders + a 5th rounder.

I thought Friedman had reported the cost would be a second+ sweetener.

 

[ACC1224]

Yes Dubas should be but the worst contract by far has been the Marleau one signed by Lou which Dubas had to clean up. Yet Dubas gets all the blame from folks like yourself.

Dubas has only overpaid on Marner and what's that 2m max. God forbid surely this means the difference between winning a cup or not!

Incorrect, Lou Lams fault for Marleaus contract, Dubas' fault for how he chose to get rid of it.

 

[Peat]

which source is saying two second rounders + a 5th rounder.

I thought Friedman had reported the cost would be a second+ sweetener.

Comma was meant to be OR, not AND - my bad on miscommunication.

 

[BrainyBomber]

Incorrect, Lou Lams fault for Marleaus contract, Dubas' fault for how he chose to get rid of it.

Ok then what should Dubas have done with Marleau last summer?

A protected 1st was the going rate. You think you would have got a better deal? Or should we have kept the anchor and moved 6.25m worth of other salary this year?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Going into the 2019 draft, I was reading the 2020 draft was stronger/deeper.

Consider this. Scouts are projecting potential for 17 and 18 year old kids. How do they know how deep it is before this season started? Don't you think what they do this year has a lot to do with that? Deep drafts have been said before and it's a wild guess. And where is it deep? That can be assumed multiple ways. Top 10 deep, Top 15 deep? 40 players who are 1st round talent? See my point?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Ok then what should Dubas have done with Marleau last summer?

A protected 1st was the going rate. You think you would have got a better deal? Or should we have kept the anchor and moved 6.25m worth of other salary this year?

This is what I would have done...

- I do not make the Kadri for Barrie and Kerfoot trade.
- I bring back Hainsey for one more year
- I trade Nylander before he gets that contract for a RD who is younger and cheaper
- If it takes a 1st to get rid of Marleau, I keep him for one more year and trade Kapanen or Johnson

That 1st could be another Sandin... ELC/Bridge deal guys like this is what the Leafs need in their cap hell years. Making trades to fill holes is for fools.

Skill is hard to acquire and the Leafs have it. But rounding out the roster with young cheap Grade A prospects on ELC/Bridge deals is how you fill holes. Team lacks grit as well. Lots of work to do for Dubas and no offense, I'm not a fan of Dubas. You gave the GM job to a kid at the most important time in franchise history. I am a Shannahan fan but what the hell was he thinking?

 

[CREW99AW]

Consider this. Scouts are projecting potential for 17 and 18 year old kids. How do they know how deep it is before this season started? Don't you think what they do this year has a lot to do with that? Deep drafts have been said before and it's a wild guess. And where is it deep? That can be assumed multiple ways. Top 10 deep, Top 15 deep? 40 players who are 1st round talent? See my point?

you didn't bother reading the article I provided a link to, in the very first post. If you had, you would realize scouts are there will be legitimate point producers late in the first round, game breakers at all three forward positions and skilled, creative players even available in the second round.

 

[ACC1224]

Ok then what should Dubas have done with Marleau last summer?

A protected 1st was the going rate. You think you would have got a better deal? Or should we have kept the anchor and moved 6.25m worth of other salary this year?

There is no 'going rate'. He paid (hopefully) what he was comfortable parting with.
An approach that would have retained the 1st would have been preferable.
If you believe there was absolutely no other way he could have been moved then there is no point trying to come up with alternative ways.
It is ok not to agree with every move the GM makes.

 

[Habs Halifax]

you didn't bother reading the article I provided a link to, in the very first post. If you had, you would realize scouts are there will be legitimate point producers late in the first round, game breakers at all three forward positions and skilled, creative players even available in the second round.

Don't need to read it. Heard it before. What those 17 and 18 year olds do this year matters more. Predicting this at the 2019 draft is a wild guess.

 

[CREW99AW]

Don't need to read it. Heard it before. What those 17 and 18 year olds do this year matters more. Predicting this at the 2019 draft is a wild guess.

It is not rocket science for scouts to look at the players eligible for an upcoming draft and say there is a larger group then usual of highly skilled forwards or smart,mobile defenseman. Or to look at that same group 8 months later and say whether their opinions have changed.

Always amusing when armchair GMs/scouts think their opinions carry more weight then people actually employed as GMs/scouts.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It is not rocket science for scouts to look at the players eligible for an upcoming draft and say there is a larger group then usual of highly skilled forwards or smart,mobile defenseman. Or to look at that same group 8 months later and say whether their opinions have changed.

Always amusing when armchair GMs/scouts think their opinions carry more weight then people actually employed as GMs/scouts.

Tracking potential each year for 15, 16, 17, 18 year olds has a lot of movement year to year. Scouts look at trends and they can't predict the future

 

[BrainyBomber]

This is what I would have done...

- I do not make the Kadri for Barrie and Kerfoot trade.
- I bring back Hainsey for one more year
- I trade Nylander before he gets that contract for a RD who is younger and cheaper
- If it takes a 1st to get rid of Marleau, I keep him for one more year and trade Kapanen or Johnson

That 1st could be another Sandin... ELC/Bridge deal guys like this is what the Leafs need in their cap hell years. Making trades to fill holes is for fools.

Skill is hard to acquire and the Leafs have it. But rounding out the roster with young cheap Grade A prospects on ELC/Bridge deals is how you fill holes. Team lacks grit as well. Lots of work to do for Dubas and no offense, I'm not a fan of Dubas. You gave the GM job to a kid at the most important time in franchise history. I am a Shannahan fan but what the hell was he thinking?

Your plan would not have worked because keeping Marleau means that both Kappy and AJ needed to be traded.

Nixing the Barrie trade would only have saved 1m in cap space also and spending 3.5m on Hainsey means we would have needed to cut another 2m in cap space.

 

[CREW99AW]

Tracking potential each year for 15, 16, 17, 18 year olds has a lot of movement year to year. Scouts look at trends and they can't predict the future

Last June they were tracking 16/17 yr olds who were going to be eligible for a draft taking place a yr later. They were impressed with the skill,talent and depth of that group.

The article I posted in this thread was a recent one,with scouts giving recent opinons. It's not like the link I provided is using scouting opinions are from last season.