Confirmed Signing with Link: [TBL] Anthony Cirelli signs extension (3 years, $4.8M AAV)

Rschmitz

Finding new ways to cheat
Feb 27, 2002
16,163
8,649
Tampa Bay
Any dip in production for a player over 30 has to be a concern about future production as they get older. You just don’t know if it is the beginning of a drop off or a bad season. If it’s a year left then you can be willing to roll the dice. But wi th 3/4 years left if you are wrong ouch... cause how do you justify that you didn’t notice the production decline from the prior season.

He's a year removed from scoring 29 goals with third line minutes and very little if any PP time.

Truth is we haven't seen 2016 TJ in a while. His two biggest weapons are his world class speed and wrist shot. The broken wrist in 2016 combined with the lower body injury in 2018 have significantly set his production back. His shot has recovered though, if he gets his skating back he'll be a massive force and really surprise people this year.
 

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
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Sure, but you also have to look at the context. He was in a much different role. I mean, he had a bad year, no doubt, but he actually didn't look all that much different on the ice than the guy who scored 29 the year before in a better situation. Honestly, the biggest silver lining of Kucherov's injury is Johnson becomes a top-6 winger again, and we'll probably see him hit 45 or 50 points, which should drive his value back over to the positive side. He's pretty much a 20 + 25 guy. I think people measure him against that 72 point season he had, which isn't quite fair.

One downside is Johnson has never really been a great PP guy, so even if he does get PP1 time in Kucherov's absence, I don't see it lasting. He's so north-south that it never seems to work out. But 5v5, and even short-handed, he can do some damage in a good situation, especially if paired with a creative player like Kucherov or Point. He doesn't mesh nearly as well with guys like Stamkos and Killorn, who also play very north-south.
$5 mill in a flat cap world is something a GM can't afford to be wrong about, not with a 3 year term. See what TJ does this season. Anything under 30 points this season, I'd steer clear of him. Not going to bank on a guy who goes 2 straight years under 0.5 ppg at age 31 as someone who will bounce back for all 3 remaining seasons to something into the mid 50 point seasons.
 

DistantThunderRep

Registered User
Mar 8, 2018
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$5 mill in a flat cap world is something a GM can't afford to be wrong about, not with a 3 year term. See what TJ does this season. Anything under 30 points this season, I'd steer clear of him. Not going to bank on a guy who goes 2 straight years under 0.5 ppg at age 31 as someone who will bounce back for all 3 remaining seasons to something into the mid 50 point seasons.
30 points puts him over 0.5 ppg this season? Basically if he hits 30 points this season ppg wise he'd be over 0.5ppg. Which should drive his value higher.
 

DFC

Registered User
Sep 26, 2013
47,183
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$5 mill in a flat cap world is something a GM can't afford to be wrong about, not with a 3 year term. See what TJ does this season. Anything under 30 points this season, I'd steer clear of him. Not going to bank on a guy who goes 2 straight years under 0.5 ppg at age 31 as someone who will bounce back for all 3 remaining seasons to something into the mid 50 point seasons.
I would actually agree with that. Even in a flat cap world, 20 goal scorers are valuable. Johnson usually hits that, by he has to prove himself this year. Pretty decent opportunity for him to do so.
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
29,145
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He's a year removed from scoring 29 goals with third line minutes and very little if any PP time.

Truth is we haven't seen 2016 TJ in a while. His two biggest weapons are his world class speed and wrist shot. The broken wrist in 2016 combined with the lower body injury in 2018 have significantly set his production back. His shot has recovered though, if he gets his skating back he'll be a massive force and really surprise people this year.

Those 29 goals come from being stapled next to Point and Kucherov all regular season, he won't have that luxury on any other team. He's primary linemates last season were Palat, Cirelli, Gourde and Kucherov, the first 3 are similar to players he'd be playing with on any other team if not worse, I wouldn't bank on him getting 29 goals with superstar help. Not to mention the entire playoffs in a 2nd line role with good players and still struggled.

Johnson's skating has been back for 2 years now, he's not going to get any better with it and that's not his main issue anyways.
 

DFC

Registered User
Sep 26, 2013
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Those 29 goals come from being stapled next to Point and Kucherov all regular season, he won't have that luxury on any other team. He's primary linemates last season were Palat, Cirelli, Gourde and Kucherov, the first 3 are similar to players he'd be playing with on any other team if not worse, I wouldn't bank on him getting 29 goals with superstar help. Not to mention the entire playoffs in a 2nd line role with good players and still struggled.

Johnson's skating has been back for 2 years now, he's not going to get any better with it and that's not his main issue anyways.
I don't think anyone is expecting 29. But 20-25 (pace) is realistic.
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
29,145
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I don't think anyone is expecting 29. But 20-25 (pace) is realistic.

Yeah just saying that the last 2 years he played at 50 point level he was stapled next to Point. He's a ~40 point player on his own but at 5m I can see why there's hardly a market for it.
 

Rschmitz

Finding new ways to cheat
Feb 27, 2002
16,163
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Those 29 goals come from being stapled next to Point and Kucherov all regular season, he won't have that luxury on any other team. He's primary linemates last season were Palat, Cirelli, Gourde and Kucherov, the first 3 are similar to players he'd be playing with on any other team if not worse, I wouldn't bank on him getting 29 goals with superstar help. Not to mention the entire playoffs in a 2nd line role with good players and still struggled.

Johnson's skating has been back for 2 years now, he's not going to get any better with it and that's not his main issue anyways.

28 ES goals in less than 16 minutes of TOI is impressive, not many in this league can do that. Right, it's doubtful that he'll have the same talent around him on another team, but that should be mitigated by increased playing time, more ozone starts, and seeing the PP. I'm assuming we will see some of that this year if he gets an expanded role with no Kucherov.

His skating isn't back. His straight line speed is fine but he has clearly lost a step on his burst acceleration. The breakaways and odd man rushes aren't happening. That is the main issue, the holes in his game have always been there. He's 5'8", you can't take away his difference making attribute and expect him to generate offense and be the same player he used to be.
 
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StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
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Yeah just saying that the last 2 years he played at 50 point level he was stapled next to Point. He's a ~40 point player on his own but at 5m I can see why there's hardly a market for it.
Which makes this season a big one for what it takes to move him.

if I am Francis I don’t care that he’s from WA state. I care what he can perform at in the final 3 years as i can use that cap space in free agency or acquire assets for a cap dump with only a year left.

same would apply for other teams.

a 20 odd point season in 56 games is likely to generate the same or less level of interest in him in the off season.

teams need to be taking care of their own rfa first.
 

Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
7,483
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My understanding is they can bring him back for the playoffs regardless. No cap for playoffs.

Edit: Want to beat the NHL salary cap? Here's how:

This is nothing new and has been referred to a bunch. With as much as you're posting about this on TBL board and here Bryd, I'd think you'd have researched it or questioned some other people bringing it up.

Did you not read the article from two weeks ago from the NHL site addressing circumvention of the CAP? This was before Kuch was put on LTIR. It pointed out how in the past the players Cap was prorated for regular season and under this situation was being considered for the playoffs and the impact of the Txi as well. There is speculation all over the place and decisions made because of it. Just like the Cirelli signing. I have to think that JBB would not have gone thru with it if he did not have assurance that Kuches cap would be a issue for the playoffs but then again I have seen some shady shit done by GM's over the years. Maybe it is a nothing sandwich and the CAp will not matter in the playoffs but it will cause bitching and moaning hell it already has. Tampa has been accused of using Kuch to circumvent the Cap already by posters on this board.
 

Voight

#winning
Feb 8, 2012
40,739
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Great for the Bolts. Huge Cirelli fan myself.

Bright side for them is Johnson will have -1 year on his contract next summer so might be easier to move him with sweetners. We'll see how much the cap goes up but my guess is Killorn is likely a goner to, however now I noticed Palat will be in the last year of his contract so could probably move him.

Anyhow, at least they can make one more run with their core group. Regardless, this team is going to be good for a long time.
 

Aoko

Order has now fallen.
Dec 14, 2017
4,196
4,048
Just seeing this contract extension.

That's a lot more money than what I was expecting. Still worth it. Kid is elite and proved it.
 

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