Confirmed Signing with Link: [TBL] Anthony Cirelli signs extension (3 years, $4.8M AAV)

[Big Muddy]

I went through this again. Numbers were from CapFriendly. Projected Cap Hit of $93,191,666 included Kucherov ($9.5 m) salary which is listed as IR now on CapFriendly.

When they place Kucherov on LTIR, then $9.5 m gets subtracted from the current projected cap hit ($93,191,666), bringing the cap hit total to $83,691,666, which is $2,191,666 over the cap. I think maybe that's what you were talking about.

Merry Christmas everyone.

 

[Calad]

50 point player coming off ELC w/ selke votes worthy D is only gonna get $3m? Thats a bold take. I think he brings in no less than $5m

I suppose for the tax free discount 4.8 is close enough

 

[TheFinalWord]

No state tax helps a lot. Without that there’s no chance Kucherov/Hedman/Point take the deals they did.

That helps a lot, but other players taking cheaper deals and a winning team probably help more. You look at Toronto, and nobody took a sweetheart deal. I think that started with Tavares, and then continued with Nylander and then Matthews/Marner. You can argue whether they are fair deals or not, but I don't think you can argue that they were team-friendly deals.

Florida has the same tax rules, but we don't see the same team-friendly contracts.

 

[McJedi]

I'd argue all 3 RFA deals were under market value especially this one

If Werenski signed a 3 x 5 last offseason. Serge doing a 3 x 4.8mm this year is definitely market. I’d rather have Werenski and his deal vs the one Tampa gave a slightly inferior player in Serge.

Cernaks deal was the best of the three for Tampa.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If Werenski signed a 3 x 5 last offseason. Serge doing a 3 x 4.8mm this year is definitely market. I’d rather have Werenski and his deal vs the one Tampa gave a slightly inferior player in Serge.

Cernaks deal was the best of the three for Tampa.

I think Werenski signed under market value too

 

[Gurglesons]

If Werenski signed a 3 x 5 last offseason. Serge doing a 3 x 4.8mm this year is definitely market. I’d rather have Werenski and his deal vs the one Tampa gave a slightly inferior player in Serge.

Cernaks deal was the best of the three for Tampa.

Still trying to rib Tampa after they would never be able to keep these players eh?

How those offer sheets going?

 

[varano]

Doesn't seem like a great deal in today's circumstances

 

[Leafs87]

I think Werenski signed under market value too

What about McAvoy ? Under market too or is that just actually the market?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

What about McAvoy ? Under market too or is that just actually the market?

I think he could have gotten more for sure if he wanted it, I think Seth Jones is a bargain too

 

[Leafs87]

I think he could have gotten more for sure if he wanted it, I think Seth Jones is a bargain too

Seth Jones, Risto and Reilly signed nearly identical deals. Just like Werenski, Serg and McAvoy. It’s a tier based thing. I think those were just the markets. I don’t see either doing the team that great of a favour. I can’t agree that Serg would of gotten more this year. Cirelli got more than I expected given the circumstances. Same with Cernak actually.

 

[Lightning1995]

Seth Jones, Risto and Reilly signed nearly identical deals. Just like Werenski, Serg and McAvoy. It’s a tier based thing. I think those were just the markets. I don’t see either doing the team that great of a favour. I can’t agree that Serg would of gotten more this year. Cirelli got more than I expected given the circumstances. Same with Cernak actually.

Agree, no bargains for TB this year, but I do think Cerneks deal is very reasonable.

Serge and Cirelli deals are easily at or above market

 

[jgimp]

Still trying to rib Tampa after they would never be able to keep these players eh?

How those offer sheets going?

You realize that the only reason that TB was able to sign their guys is that Kuch is on LTIR right? That doesn’t make JB good with negotiations, it makes him lucky, otherwise he’d still be f***ed!
What happens if Kuch is healed early and comes back prior than expected? What happens next year when he and his 9.5M are back and the aging vets are one year older, their cap is just as expensive and the cap is still flat? Running a 20 man roster with a taxi squad, better not hope for injuries.
Fact is, TBay is still in trouble, all this has done is kicked that can just a little further down the street. Someone still still needs to be moved

 

[Master P]

Agree, no bargains for TB this year, but I do think Cerneks deal is very reasonable.

Serge and Cirelli deals are easily at or above market

*Cernak

 

[Legion34]

That helps a lot, but other players taking cheaper deals and a winning team probably help more. You look at Toronto, and nobody took a sweetheart deal. I think that started with Tavares, and then continued with Nylander and then Matthews/Marner. You can argue whether they are fair deals or not, but I don't think you can argue that they were team-friendly deals.

Florida has the same tax rules, but we don't see the same team-friendly contracts.

tavares signed for 2 million less than he was offered. Try again

 

[Sky04]

tavares signed for 2 million less than he was offered. Try again

Yet he's still overpaid.

 

[Byrddog]

I went through this again. Numbers were from CapFriendly. Projected Cap Hit of $93,191,666 included Kucherov ($9.5 m) salary which is listed as IR now on CapFriendly.

When they place Kucherov on LTIR, then $9.5 m gets subtracted from the current projected cap hit ($93,191,666), bringing the cap hit total to $83,691,666, which is $2,191,666 over the cap. I think maybe that's what you were talking about.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Your calculations are correct while it is just 2.2 right now to get compliant for opening day that does not relieve the 9.5 mil that must be moved to be compliant when Kuch returns. Unless they are planning to keep him on LTIR the entire season including the playoffs. Further the trade deadline is April 12 roughly 3 months after the start of the season.

If one just accepts that we will blindly accept no Kuch for the playoffs im not sure what to think about that logic. He is the most prolific scoring forward on this team. You return him to the line-up at the earliest possible point after he is healed, but the point made that he will not be fully recovered is valid. JBB got a gift now has he known this for a while??? Has he suspected this may play out? Perhaps. And yes this will still be a team that is a lock for the playoffs I mean look at the division there are some weak sisters. I would say we are going to be top 3 in the division if the roster stays healthy especially VAsi. The issue is there are a lot of games back to back and McBack-up is going to get more starts than last year in a 56 game season. But that can be said for every team but the drop off from Vasi to McElhiney is broad and the guy is 37 and started just 66 games in the last three years.

 

[NatoGhost]

Your calculations are correct while it is just 2.2 right now to get compliant for opening day that does not relieve the 9.5 mil that must be moved to be compliant when Kuch returns. Unless they are planning to keep him on LTIR the entire season including the playoffs. Further the trade deadline is April 12 roughly 3 months after the start of the season.

If one just accepts that we will blindly accept no Kuch for the playoffs im not sure what to think about that logic. He is the most prolific scoring forward on this team. You return him to the line-up at the earliest possible point after he is healed, but the point made that he will not be fully recovered is valid. JBB got a gift now has he known this for a while??? Has he suspected this may play out? Perhaps. And yes this will still be a team that is a lock for the playoffs I mean look at the division there are some weak sisters. I would say we are going to be top 3 in the division if the roster stays healthy especially VAsi. The issue is there are a lot of games back to back and McBack-up is going to get more starts than last year in a 56 game season. But that can be said for every team but the drop off from Vasi to McElhiney is broad and the guy is 37 and started just 66 games in the last three years.

My understanding is they can bring him back for the playoffs regardless. No cap for playoffs.

Edit: Want to beat the NHL salary cap? Here's how:

This is nothing new and has been referred to a bunch. With as much as you're posting about this on TBL board and here Bryd, I'd think you'd have researched it or questioned some other people bringing it up.

 

[Sky04]

My understanding is they can bring him back for the playoffs regardless. No cap for playoffs.

Edit: Want to beat the NHL salary cap? Here's how:

This is nothing new and has been referred to a bunch. With as much as you're posting about this on TBL board and here Bryd, I'd think you'd have researched it or questioned some other people bringing it up.

He's all but guaranteed to miss the regular season, every other person on our team with the same injury took 4-5 months to get back, Kuch is having surgery next week and the playoffs start in May. Even Bry can do the math on that one, the question is how much of the playoffs he'll miss, if you keep suggesting coming back early then at least provide some sources of players doing the same.

 

[Curufinwe]

Kicking the can down the road is not a bad thing for Tampa at all. In the summer they will lose a contract to Seattle, and other contracts they may want or need to move will have one year less term.

 

[StreetHawk]

Kicking the can down the road is not a bad thing for Tampa at all. In the summer they will lose a contract to Seattle, and other contracts they may want or need to move will have one year less term.

But the player is another year older.
Acquiring a 31 year of Johnson for 3 years until he’s 34 isn’t that much better than getting him at 30 for 4 years. It’s an important year for him and TB for value purposes and cost down the line. If he repeats last years production of 0.5 PPG then I doubt teams will touch him at a $5 mill cap hit.

off season they have more flexibility as both TJ and Palat drop to mntc. But Killorn had a mntc this off season and they still didn’t move him to alleviate the cap pressure.

 

[DFC]

But the player is another year older.
Acquiring a 31 year of Johnson for 3 years until he’s 34 isn’t that much better than getting him at 30 for 4 years. It’s an important year for him and TB for value purposes and cost down the line. If he repeats last years production of 0.5 PPG then I doubt teams will touch him at a $5 mill cap hit.

off season they have more flexibility as both TJ and Palat drop to mntc. But Killorn had a mntc this off season and they still didn’t move him to alleviate the cap pressure.

That's true if johnson is showing significant signs of decline. Last year didn't look so much like a decline as just a terrible year where nothing went right.

I feel like people undervalue older players here. TB is still a reasonably young team, but they had to mature before they could win a cup. The biggest difference between last year's team and previous teams was flat out maturity. They had to grow the f*** up in order to develop the consistency required to stick to a system in the playoffs.

I'm not saying players on the wrong side of 30 are always better. But it definitely shouldn't be a deal breaker.

 

[StreetHawk]

That's true if johnson is showing significant signs of decline. Last year didn't look so much like a decline as just a terrible year where nothing went right.

I feel like people undervalue older players here. TB is still a reasonably young team, but they had to mature before they could win a cup. The biggest difference between last year's team and previous teams was flat out maturity. They had to grow the f*** up in order to develop the consistency required to stick to a system in the playoffs.

I'm not saying players on the wrong side of 30 are always better. But it definitely shouldn't be a deal breaker.

Any dip in production for a player over 30 has to be a concern about future production as they get older. You just don’t know if it is the beginning of a drop off or a bad season. If it’s a year left then you can be willing to roll the dice. But wi th 3/4 years left if you are wrong ouch... cause how do you justify that you didn’t notice the production decline from the prior season.

 

[Big Muddy]

Any dip in production for a player over 30 has to be a concern about future production as they get older. You just don’t know if it is the beginning of a drop off or a bad season. If it’s a year left then you can be willing to roll the dice. But wi th 3/4 years left if you are wrong ouch... cause how do you justify that you didn’t notice the production decline from the prior season.

The other factor is that this year's COVID economics play a very large role. If you need a little boost and need a forward, do you trade for TJ, or get a guy from free agency for much less money and one year of term?

 

[Todd1a]

But the player is another year older.
Acquiring a 31 year of Johnson for 3 years until he’s 34 isn’t that much better than getting him at 30 for 4 years. It’s an important year for him and TB for value purposes and cost down the line. If he repeats last years production of 0.5 PPG then I doubt teams will touch him at a $5 mill cap hit.

off season they have more flexibility as both TJ and Palat drop to mntc. But Killorn had a mntc this off season and they still didn’t move him to alleviate the cap pressure.

with Kucherov out now do they want to move Killorn out? I’d say probably not

 

[DFC]

Any dip in production for a player over 30 has to be a concern about future production as they get older. You just don’t know if it is the beginning of a drop off or a bad season. If it’s a year left then you can be willing to roll the dice. But wi th 3/4 years left if you are wrong ouch... cause how do you justify that you didn’t notice the production decline from the prior season.

Sure, but you also have to look at the context. He was in a much different role. I mean, he had a bad year, no doubt, but he actually didn't look all that much different on the ice than the guy who scored 29 the year before in a better situation. Honestly, the biggest silver lining of Kucherov's injury is Johnson becomes a top-6 winger again, and we'll probably see him hit 45 or 50 points, which should drive his value back over to the positive side. He's pretty much a 20 + 25 guy. I think people measure him against that 72 point season he had, which isn't quite fair.

One downside is Johnson has never really been a great PP guy, so even if he does get PP1 time in Kucherov's absence, I don't see it lasting. He's so north-south that it never seems to work out. But 5v5, and even short-handed, he can do some damage in a good situation, especially if paired with a creative player like Kucherov or Point. He doesn't mesh nearly as well with guys like Stamkos and Killorn, who also play very north-south.