Proposal: TB & Jets

[Flyer lurker]

You don't see the difference between a 26 year old player and a 30 year old player? Miller prior to his 47 in 75 (paced over 50) point year posted back to back 55 plus point years and plays a power game (Always over values). 30 isn't old but for the vast majority of players its past their best before date and its generally the time their game starts to decline.

It's one thing to pay a first for a proven second line power winger in his physical prime who has a decent contract that ends prior to the age Killorn is now. It's another to buy 3 years of a player north of 30 in which you will likely see a bit of a fall off in performance.

Jets have been unable to find a taker for Perreault who only has a year left at a similar cap value. Teams aren't lining up for aging players. Perrault at the same age as Killorn is now had similar production and was an elite play driver. Jets can't give him away. Teams aren't lining up for older players with term on their deals.

I assume you saw that Miller's 5.25m is more than Killorn's 4.4m and was more a risk salary wise?

I assume you saw stretches where Miller was so streaky/not trusted in 18-19 that it was common for him to get 10-12 minutes of playing time and play 3rd/4th line.

Whether Killorn gets 2 3 package or 1 we will see. Is pick 27-31ish really that valuable to Colorado? TB didn't think so to add Goodrow. Pick 21-30 is about 25% chance of hitting?

It doesn't change that Killorn will go and Serg/Cirelli have no shot in being traded.

50 point lw's, pk2 and the dreaded 30 years old nobody wants. Silly rabbits.

 

[Heldig]

He has to submit a 16 team list.

Regardless not many players are going to waive their contract in Tampa to go to Winnipeg.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Regardless not many players are going to waive their contract in Tampa to go to Winnipeg.

Hes not waiving, he has to submit a 16 team list on July 1st, I believe. But I do agree the likely hood of Winnipeg being one of the teams on that list is slim.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Would love to have C but the last thing we can do is lose a d-man who has shown promise, our best shutdown forward, and a 1st that can be used to fix our D.

Everything we have should be going into fixing our D-core.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

killorn isnt getting a 1 even with the career year. he has never hit 50pts and this was the first time he hit 20 goals. he is more or less a 15+g/40+pt 3rd liner, albeit one of the better ones in the league.

Killorn can play anywhere from the second line to the fourth line, solid leader, got really good playoff stats, signed reasonably for his production. One of the common jokes on the Tampa forum is his, up to this season, perfect career 0.5ppg. Killorn could pull in 25-35 pick to the right young playoff team.

 

[TS Quint]

Hes not waiving, he has to submit a 16 team list on July 1st, I believe. But I do agree the likely hood of Winnipeg being one of the teams on that list is slim.

I would imagine he, like most players wants to stay in Tampa. He will do his best to game the system and leave teams tight to the cap or too cheap or not in the market for that type of player or competing with in the same division etc.

I don't think it is as easy as you want to think to move him. There will only be a small handful of teams who will be options with varying degrees of interest.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Killorn can play anywhere from the second line to the fourth line, solid leader, got really good playoff stats, signed reasonably for his production. One of the common jokes on the Tampa forum is his, up to this season, perfect career 0.5ppg. Killorn could pull in 25-35 pick to the right young playoff team.

Killorn is a just a solid player. The only criticism from a long term point of view is he can be very streaky. He can play 2 weeks like a 1st liner and 2 weeks like a 4th liner. Guess I could make this comment about 25 goal/point scorers in the league. This year the bad streaks have been far and few between. If I could make JVR disappear off roster I would love to add Killorn.

Yes Tampa has hard moves to make. There will be legit top 9 f's and or top 6 D, that have to be traded. It stinks. But back to the original post there is no shot in hades you are getting Sergachev or Cirelli for 1 and table scraps.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Killorn is a just a solid player. The only criticism from a long term point of view is he can be very streaky. He can play 2 weeks like a 1st liner and 2 weeks like a 4th liner. Guess I could make this comment about 25 goal/point scorers in the league. This year the bad streaks have been far and few between. If I could make JVR disappear off roster I would love to add Killorn.

Yes Tampa has hard moves to make. There will be legit top 9 f's and or top 6 D, that have to be traded. It stinks. But back to the original post there is no shot in hades you are getting Sergachev or Cirelli for 1 and table scraps.

So what is Cirrelli’s value from Philly?
Ghost and a 1st?

 

[Flyer lurker]

So what is Cirrelli’s value from Philly?
Ghost and a 1st?

1) Would I as Flyers fan do that? in a millisecond.
2) Would Lightning have interest in adding Ghost's salary? zero.
3) If Lightning were to trade Cirelli the obvious player going back would be Frost (Plus). Frost plug right in at 3c under 1m and lots of upside. Say Flyers offer Frost and 2. Lightning would want Frost and 1(or more)

 

[BatVader]

No reason to trade for him... just offersheet him.

 

[DFC]

Cirelli's going nowhere.

 

[CanadienShark]

delete.

 

[Whileee]

One player i think about targeting in trade is McDonagh. Figure Hedman and Sergachev are locks to stay in 2021 ED. That leaves McDonagh, Foote, and Cernak for one or two spots in 4x4 scenerio(I'll guess Foote for the upside and cheap salary). Does Ryan Mc get traded this offseason to not lose his value for free in ED? Yes he has NTC but someone with NTC is going to have to waive for Lightning to fix the issue. Guessing Ryan Mc doesnt want to start over with expansion team at 32. Better to trade Ryan Mc at 6.75 then not keep Sergachev at 6m.

You're dreaming if you think a player is going to waive a NTC to leave the Bolts, who have a legit shot at the Cup. It just won't happen.

Buying out Johnson would be idiotic and would only save them about $3M in cap space. TB's only hope is that Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak all decide to take contracts well well below market value, during a very uncertain financial time.

As for the likelihood of an offer sheet, no team has been as at risk as the Bolts will be. They won't be in the position to match a hefty OS even if they want to.

But it won't be the Jets who will make an offer. More likely that rivals in the East will try to poach Cirelli or Sergachev. The Jets might be able to offer the Bolts roster players that would be better for the Bolts than picks.

 

[Whileee]

While I agree that Cirelli is worth a boatload, he’s hella good, it’s going to take you more to clear cap to re-sign him. Goodbye 1st and good prospect (Foote, Barre-Boulet) to rid Killorn. And is that even enough to resign Serg AND Cernak?
As a Jets fan I’d be willing to deal Samberg, Roslo and our 21’ 1st for Cirelli or Sergachev plus a small add (Stephens, 2nd etc). I think that’s a decent offer. Allows you to resign the others and gives you a LHD and forward who can step into the roster on cheap cap hits.

That's too much from the Jets. Roslovic is a good roster player and Samberg is a top end prospect. Jets' 1st will be around #12. Cirelli is good, but that's too much. He's not that good.

 

[aufheben]

That’s bad for Tampa.

 

[Whileee]

Would Winnipeg give up a similar package for Ehlers? That's pretty much how we value Cirelli.

Also I love every one who is saying since we had 1 offersheet last year, ITS THE NEW TREND??!?!? f*** all those other years where we haven't seen any. Let's not put it into perspective and state that there has been 1 in over half a decade and it was done by an extremely desperate GM. But no, continue to say how the single outlier case is the standard.

TB's cap situation along with NTC across every high cap player is an extreme outlier in terms of vulnerability to an offer sheet. Maybe the Bolts can get Cirelli or Sergachev to take a salary way below market value like Labanc, but I would doubt any agent will want to try that ploy again anytime soon.

 

[tgo0]

That's too much from the Jets. Roslovic is a good roster player and Samberg is a top end prospect. Jets' 1st will be around #12. Cirelli is good, but that's too much. He's not that good.

The first was next years but no way Tampa does this. As a Jets fan I take it and run.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

TB's cap situation along with NTC across every high cap player is an extreme outlier in terms of vulnerability to an offer sheet. Maybe the Bolts can get Cirelli or Sergachev to take a salary way below market value like Labanc, but I would doubt any agent will want to try that ploy again anytime soon.

Oh, so there is no precedent set in Tampa of this happening. Good to know revisionist history is fact now.

 

[Flyer lurker]

You're dreaming if you think a player is going to waive a NTC to leave the Bolts, who have a legit shot at the Cup. It just won't happen.

Buying out Johnson would be idiotic and would only save them about $3M in cap space. TB's only hope is that Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak all decide to take contracts well well below market value, during a very uncertain financial time.

As for the likelihood of an offer sheet, no team has been as at risk as the Bolts will be. They won't be in the position to match a hefty OS even if they want to.

But it won't be the Jets who will make an offer. More likely that rivals in the East will try to poach Cirelli or Sergachev. The Jets might be able to offer the Bolts roster players that would be better for the Bolts than picks.

2 legit salary guys have to go to make the cap unless cap isn't 81.5m and is higher. Killorn is the easy one because his ntc is only partial and he has played well enough this year to get a pick no problem.
Somebody else has to go.
I know fans of 30 teams want it to be Sergachev or Cirelli and it won't be them. Whether 3m or 5m someone else has to go. Gourde Johnson Ryan Mc (Cernak to lesser extent_ trade or buy out someone has to go. And yes I have doubts every guy with ntc would not be willing to move for more playing time and chance to grow. Gourde is a good player but stuck because he can;t make top 6 and TB top pp gets big chunk of time.
Seeing 31 owners take a huge money hit,long term attendance in doubt for next year or two and now they will try to cause salaries to raise more with offer sheets. Call me extremely skeptical.

 

[jgimp]

That's too much from the Jets. Roslovic is a good roster player and Samberg is a top end prospect. Jets' 1st will be around #12. Cirelli is good, but that's too much. He's not that good.

Roslo is a 3rd liner, I really like Samberg as a prospect, but he hasn’t played a pro game yet and it was a 2021 1st which shouldn’t be a lotto pick and should sit in the 22-31 range if Chevy (and PoMo) does his job. I would also do the same offer for Sergachev

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

1) Every year this will be the year of the offer sheet. And it never happens. And choice between Cirelli at 6 or Johnson or Killorn its easily Cirelli. Cirelli team control for 4 years you don't trade. It either bridge at 3.25m or longer term at 5.75m(Konecky deal)

2) Good d 4c at 2.9m. Not Lightning need in a cap world. And the D getting the promotion for TB will be Foote.

3) the 1st they will get for Johnson or Killorn.

Its an easy no.

Neither will get a 1st. Tampa has 0 leverage in a trade because they don't have a scenario where they can just say "hey the offers not good enough we'll just keep them". They will be forced to get rid of one or both and their values will take a hit. Even in a normal trade scenario I don't think either have 1st round value but then again Hayes/Coleman got a 1sts so anything's possible..

 

[Whileee]

2 legit salary guys have to go to make the cap unless cap isn't 81.5m and is higher. Killorn is the easy one because his ntc is only partial and he has played well enough this year to get a pick no problem.
Somebody else has to go.
I know fans of 30 teams want it to be Sergachev or Cirelli and it won't be them. Whether 3m or 5m someone else has to go. Gourde Johnson Ryan Mc (Cernak to lesser extent_ trade or buy out someone has to go. And yes I have doubts every guy with ntc would not be willing to move for more playing time and chance to grow. Gourde is a good player but stuck because he can;t make top 6 and TB top pp gets big chunk of time.
Seeing 31 owners take a huge money hit,long term attendance in doubt for next year or two and now they will try to cause salaries to raise more with offer sheets. Call me extremely skeptical.

It's extremely unlikely that any of the Bolts with a full NTC can be moved. They are on a top team challenging for the cup and playing in TB.

If they trade Killorn for futures, they have about $9.8M in cap space to re-sign Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak, plus 5 more players to fill out the roster. Let's assume they can fill the roster with 5 minimum contracts... they would have about $6.5M left to sign the RFAs. Maybe they trade Cernak and replace with a minimum contract. Then they have maybe $5.7M to sign both Sergachev and Cirelli.

I don't recall a team ever being so capped out and having such enticing RFAs. If they don't attract a predatory offer sheet from a rival, the OS truly is dead. Would TB take the risk?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

nope as good as lowry/copp are (or mostly just copp its starting to look like lowry's one crazy defensive year was a fluke) cirelli is a burgeoning superstar

 

[snowkiddin]

More likely Tampa pays someone to take Killorn than give away Cirelli/Sergachev for scraps

 

[canuckking1]

If they retain a bit on Gourde I'm sure they can get some value for him. He's still a player, the lighting will be fine.