Speculation: Tavares or Carlson, why not both?

[Machinehead]

Buyer beware on that guy. He's in a contract year.

Data shows that the "contract year" thing is a giant myth.

League average p/60 last 4 years

3 years before contract - 1.6564
2 year before contract - 1.5841
Contract year - 1.5978
Immediately after contract year - 1.409

If anything, guys are better 2-4 years before they expire, when they're most cemented on their current roster, without having to think about a contract.

 

[MyBudJT]

No to Carlson. Yes to Tavares.
While Carlson is a RHD, he isn't what we need. We need a D-man who can play defensive minutes to replace Hainsey. Not an expensive offense-first D.

Carlson gets 2:38 SHTOI/GP

plus we don't need to replace Hainsey if we keep him to the 3rd pair.

Hainsey-Zaitsev
Dermott/Borgman/_____ - Carlson

 

[KuleminFan41]

Leafs don't need Tavares nor have the capspace to get him anyway, especially seeing as there's too many guys to re-sign . Leafs still have to lock up Nylander, Carrick and Johnsson at the end of this season, Marner , Matthews, Kapanen and Leivo at the end of next season. Leafs have more pressing needs than adding another C to the team, they need a RHD more but I'm unsure if Carlson is the guy though.

 

[nuck]

Where would you rank JT in terms of Cs and how do you think he performs behind a franchise centreman ?

On the one hand his minutes drop by 10% but Matthews frees him from facing the other clubs top guys every night. He is a top 10 center in the league and if he steals some of the 4th line guy's minutes, and plays a 2 center pp sometimes beside Matthews like Staal did with Crosby and Sakic did with Forsberg, the Leafs attack will get full value. He isn't a power forward but he can probably excel in a more physical game than Boz or Matthews. He doesn't hit a lot, but like Sundin he doesn't get pushed around in the dirty areas. Career 52% on the dot so there is lots to like.

If he would come, there is no reason to expect a discount, as a lot of contenders would be interested. Then, either the club feels that the money biased to forwards and the future loss of cap flexibility is worth it, or they don't. I don't think he will earn his next contract, but he is young enough that he could still be productive in the last year of it. No question he makes them better, but they need to have the confidence in their D corp that they can win with essentially this group. Based on the fact they did the "own rental" this year they may actually believe that. If they are unsure about Willie at center that is a huge factor too.

 

[TorontoTrades]

how about neither. Save for Doughty.

 

[ToneDog]

Save for 5 to 7 names at the C position , i would have 0 issue putting JT up against the remaining names.

I can't see how JT could not mimic what Malkin does in Pitt. Carter in LA.

I can't understand how so many posters don't see it especially with JVR, Leo, TyBo and Pleks walking. With the team trending up and JT thinking about walking and being from the GTA, I liken it to a perfect storm. The question is does Tavares embrace it or will he be scared off by the thought of playing in a fishbowl. If he gets to July 1st, I like our chances with Shanny, Lou and Babs selling the Leafs to him.

 

[ToneDog]

Leafs don't need Tavares nor have the capspace to get him anyway, especially seeing as there's too many guys to re-sign . Leafs still have to lock up Nylander, Carrick and Johnsson at the end of this season, Marner , Matthews, Kapanen and Leivo at the end of next season. Leafs have more pressing needs than adding another C to the team, they need a RHD more but I'm unsure if Carlson is the guy though.

Yeah, I can see Lou not opening the door when JT comes knocking. And when Shanny asks why he did not answer, he says cause we gotta sign Nylander, Carrick and Johnsson this summer and Leivo next year. Sorry don't think so.

 

[Faltorvo]

I can't understand how so many posters don't see it especially with JVR, Leo, TyBo and Pleks walking. With the team trending up and JT thinking about walking and being from the GTA, I liken it to a perfect storm. The question is does Tavares embrace it or will he be scared off by the thought of playing in a fishbowl. If he gets to July 1st, I like our chances with Shanny, Lou and Babs selling the Leafs to him.

I'm not sure what you mean by "fish bowl"

Our owners are the sports media in this town( they can keep the narrative under control) and he is already a exceptionally known star NHL er in his community.

I frankly believe this "lime light" stuff is over blown.

 

[Faltorvo]

Yeah, I can see Lou not opening the door when JT comes knocking. And when Shanny asks why he did not answer, he says cause we gotta sign Nylander, Carrick and Johnsson this summer and Leivo next year. Sorry don't think so.

I don't even respond to the " there is no cap space" crowd anymore

Those that have done the research know there is plenty there to ink JT and the "big 3".

 

[Al14]

how about neither. Save for Doughty.

If only we knew if Doughty was going to come over! And, at what price.

Skipping on signing Tavares now, in hopes of getting Doughty signed later, might just be too risky!

It all comes down to what upgrades on D our management team can lock down this summer.

I have already said we don't need Tavares, however, I also would be disappointed if we could have signed him and he ends up elsewhere in our division!

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

I'll take Tavares. He is a 10/10 player. I know his sister as well who works in Mississauga and she is a 10/10 as well.

 

[Liminality]

If Carlson makes it to FA, I still think Carlson could handle the top pairing with Rielly and would be such a huge piece for the Leafs. Carlson would take minutes away from Zaitsev on the PK and would be our go to guy on the PP. I think it's worth grabbing a guy like him for the right price, we need that high end talent on defense. If we do miss him, go for Doughty next year but I'm not very confident of getting him.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Yeah, I can see Lou not opening the door when JT comes knocking. And when Shanny asks why he did not answer, he says cause we gotta sign Nylander, Carrick and Johnsson this summer and Leivo next year. Sorry don't think so.

You didn't even remotely try to suggest how they'd be able to fit everyone under the salary cap and improve the defence in the process since that's more important to upgrade . Apparently to you there isn't a salary cap in play that the Leafs have to account for, especially if they want to lock up their core long term. Marner and Nylander sure as hell aren't going to settle for 4 million like JVR did.

I don't even respond to the " there is no cap space" crowd anymore

Those that have done the research know there is plenty there to ink JT and the "big 3".

Apparently you didn't read the part where I specifically mention the need to improve defence as you know...that's been a big talking point all year and all. Can't have your cake and eat it too

 

[Machinehead]

Carlson gets 2:38 SHTOI/GP

plus we don't need to replace Hainsey if we keep him to the 3rd pair.

Hainsey-Zaitsev
Dermott/Borgman/_____ - Carlson

SHTOI is a horrid measure of a player's defensive capabilities.

7m/year for a the 3rd pair seems unwise.

 

[LeafFever]

Stay away from UFAs.

 

[MyBudJT]

SHTOI is a horrid measure of a player's defensive capabilities.

7m/year for a the 3rd pair seems unwise.

3rd pair? Carlson is a top 20 D in the game right now.

If you're referencing to the pairs I had there, that was PK units.

If we get Carlson, I would:
1) Trade Gardiner for a JVR-lite replacement
2) Have the following pairing:
Rielly-Carlson
Dermott-Zaitsev
Borgman-Hainsey

 

[LeafFever]

Why don't we wait for Liljegren? Dermott was a better addition this year than any UFA or vet we could have traded for. Build from within.

 

[i1]

how about neither. Save for Doughty.

If the Leafs can get one of Doughty, Karlsson or OEL next summer they are in great shape for the next decade

 

[Faltorvo]

You didn't even remotely try to suggest how they'd be able to fit everyone under the salary cap and improve the defence in the process since that's more important to upgrade . Apparently to you there isn't a salary cap in play that the Leafs have to account for, especially if they want to lock up their core long term. Marner and Nylander sure as hell aren't going to settle for 4 million like JVR did.


Apparently you didn't read the part where I specifically mention the need to improve defence as you know...that's been a big talking point all year and all. Can't have your cake and eat it too

apparently i don't give a damn nor share your opinion about our D or your non existent way to improve it.

 

[hullsy47]

Was taking a look at CapFriendly today and just realized how great of a cap situation we really are in.

Let's say Carlson gets 7.5m per year (would make him the seventh highest paid defenceman), and Tavares get 10m per year (would make him the third highest paid center).

Then for the big 3 lets say:

Nylander - 6.5m
Marner - 7m
Matthews - 10m

Let's see where that would put us in 2019-20 with an estimated 80m cap (very conservative).

1) Matthews - 10
2) Tavares - 10
3) Marner - 7
4) Nylander - 6.5
5) Marleau - 6.25
6) Kadri - 4.5
7) Martin - 2.5
8) Hyman - 2.25
9) Brown - 2.1
10) Kapanen - 1
11) Johnsson - 1

1) Carlson - 7.5
2) Rielly - 5
3) Zaitsev - 4.5
4) Dermott - 0.9
5) Liljegren - 0.9

1) Andersen - 5

Retained Salary (Kessel): 1.2

Total Contracts: 17
Cap Hit: 76.6

Thats 3.4m to sign a 4th line center, 3rd pair D, and backup goalie. It's tight, but it's fun to think about.

Mathews same as eichel ....lets give marner no 93 ....I mean Mathews may get 4 goals sat nite ....but marner is are best player

 

[Sniper99]

If Tavares wants to be a top pairing dman overnight and asks for that in the negotiations hes got my vote, so we can get rid of Gardiner's pathetic little ***

 

[Sniper99]

Carlson is gonna get a bad contract from somebody. Hope it isnt the Leafs

"hold my drink"
- Zaitsev's contract

 

[Dragao6]

Sign both, get rid of our garbage and next season at deadline trade carlson for doughty.
Get rid of gardiner asap

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Was taking a look at CapFriendly today and just realized how great of a cap situation we really are in.

Let's say Carlson gets 7.5m per year (would make him the seventh highest paid defenceman), and Tavares get 10m per year (would make him the third highest paid center).

Then for the big 3 lets say:

Nylander - 6.5m
Marner - 7m
Matthews - 10m

Let's see where that would put us in 2019-20 with an estimated 80m cap (very conservative).

1) Matthews - 10
2) Tavares - 10
3) Marner - 7
4) Nylander - 6.5
5) Marleau - 6.25
6) Kadri - 4.5
7) Martin - 2.5
8) Hyman - 2.25
9) Brown - 2.1
10) Kapanen - 1
11) Johnsson - 1

1) Carlson - 7.5
2) Rielly - 5
3) Zaitsev - 4.5
4) Dermott - 0.9
5) Liljegren - 0.9

1) Andersen - 5

Retained Salary (Kessel): 1.2

Total Contracts: 17
Cap Hit: 76.6

Thats 3.4m to sign a 4th line center, 3rd pair D, and backup goalie. It's tight, but it's fun to think about.

That actually gives a cap hit of 78.1 million. The cap hit is likely to be at 80 million, so that leafs will have used 78.1 million on 17 players.

At minimum, a team would want 13 forwards, 7 defenseman, and 2 goalies on their roster. So 22 players. Leafs will only have 1.9 million to sign 5 players.
Not to mention that Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Carlson are very likely to sign for more than what you proposed. Heck, wouldnt be surprised if Carlson got 9 million.

 

[Hoboryan]

We talking Erik Karlsson? Or John Carlson?