Speculation: Tavares or Carlson, why not both?

[LeafingTheWay]

No to Carlson. Yes to Tavares.
While Carlson is a RHD, he isn't what we need. We need a D-man who can play defensive minutes to replace Hainsey. Not an expensive offense-first D.

 

[Hockeyholic]

Is it bad that I want Evander Kane?

Kane-Kadri anyone?

He's more mature now. Sharks love him. And won't cost Tavares money

Buyer beware on that guy. He's in a contract year.

 

[Jtabo]

Worst case we pay picks to get rid of Martin and even Brown. Replace them with elc and now you have another 3.5 to work with. Very doable.

If we got jt I would bet doughty would come. He is even attainable at 10 million

Ya and Marleaus 6.5 will be off the books the following year.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Was taking a look at CapFriendly today and just realized how great of a cap situation we really are in.


Total Contracts: 17
Cap Hit: 76.6

Thats 3.4m to sign a 4th line center, 3rd pair D, and backup goalie. It's tight, but it's fun to think about.

There's usually 23 players on a NHL roster I think. Even with the 20 man roster you've suggested (17 + 3), I'd doubt you could sign a decent 4C, 3rd pair D, and backup goalie for $3.4 m. Then there's also potentially ELC bonuses if there's any. Not seeing how the math really works here.

 

[michi510]

Regardless, if Tavares makes it to July 1, you inquire and try to get him! You don’t pass up on a franchise center hitting FA. Having 2 elite #1 centermen didn’t hurt Pittsburgh

 

[zeke]

Take away Tavares' super elite minutes totals, and I don't think he looks like a franchise centerman anymore.

 

[81Leafs50]

Was taking a look at CapFriendly today and just realized how great of a cap situation we really are in.

Let's say Carlson gets 7.5m per year (would make him the seventh highest paid defenceman), and Tavares get 10m per year (would make him the third highest paid center).

Then for the big 3 lets say:

Nylander - 6.5m
Marner - 7m
Matthews - 10m

Let's see where that would put us in 2019-20 with an estimated 80m cap (very conservative).

1) Matthews - 10
2) Tavares - 10
3) Marner - 7
4) Nylander - 6.5
5) Marleau - 6.25
6) Kadri - 4.5
7) Martin - 2.5
8) Hyman - 2.25
9) Brown - 2.1
10) Kapanen - 1
11) Johnsson - 1

1) Carlson - 7.5
2) Rielly - 5
3) Zaitsev - 4.5
4) Dermott - 0.9
5) Liljegren - 0.9

1) Andersen - 5

Retained Salary (Kessel): 1.2

Total Contracts: 17
Cap Hit: 76.6

Thats 3.4m to sign a 4th line center, 3rd pair D, and backup goalie. It's tight, but it's fun to think about.

Where is Jake Gardiner? he has one more year left on his deal?

 

[IBeL34f]

Take away Tavares' super elite minutes totals, and I don't think he looks like a franchise centerman anymore.

He was 20th this year in TOI/G among Forwards, and 28th in P/60

Maybe not quite as good as his 16th-place ranking in overall Points would indicate, but still a top Center, offensively.

 

[IBeL34f]

Where is Jake Gardiner? he has one more year left on his deal?

Their lineup is for 2019/20, not 2018/19

 

[ToneDog]

Take away Tavares' super elite minutes totals, and I don't think he looks like a franchise centerman anymore.

Where would you rank JT in terms of Cs and how do you think he performs behind a franchise centreman ?

 

[81Leafs50]

i see the Maple Leafs nest year as something like this.....with lots of cap space

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Tavares-Marner
Brown-Kadri-Kapanen
Martin-Aaltonen-Johnsson

Reilly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Liljegren
Borgman-Rosen

Andersen
McElhinney

FORWARDS (13)
Right wing: W. Nylander ($6,000,000) - M. Marner ($894,167) - K. Kapanen ($863,333) - C. Brown ($2,100,000)
Centre: A. Matthews ($925,000) - J. Tavares ($9,500,000) - N. Kadri ($4,500,000) - M. Aaltonen ($975,000)
Left wing: Z. Hyman ($2,250,000) - P. Marleau ($6,250,000) - A. Johnsson ($975,000) - M. Martin ($2,500,000) - J. Leivo ($925,000)

DEFENSE (8)
Right: R. Hainsey ($3,000,000) - N. Zaitsev ($4,500,000) - T. Liljegren ($925,000) - C. Rosén ($925,000)
Left: M. Rielly ($5,000,000) - J. Gardiner ($4,050,000) - T. Dermott ($863,333) - A. Borgman ($925,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
F. Andersen ($5,000,000) - C. McElhinney ($850,000)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
NHL Salary Cap: $80,000,000
Cap Hit: $65,895,833
Cap Space: $14,104,167

 

[Funk21]

If they sign Tavares they’ll be able to move Nylander
If they sign Carlson they’ll be able to move Gardiner

I move Gardiner but keep Nylander. You also try to dump Martin but I think you would likely end up a million to get rid of him. Not a big deal because you gain 1.5. If you look at teams like the Pens, they have been able to pay two Stud CTR's, a winger like Kessel and still have a player like Letang on the team. Obviously we also have Marner but players like Kapanen and Johnson will be dirt cheap and likely be able to get them on bridge deals. Question is will Carlson get offered more than 7.5-It will be close. I'm all for going after both but we would need to have all of the OP dollar amounts basically come in. That will be a tough task.

Lastly our forth line CTR position may be a tough go but having:
Matthews
JT
Kadri

Would make us the class of the east IMO. Add Carlson to that D and instantly everybody becomes better.

If the cap is up to 80 this offseason we are likely looking close to another 5 the following year. Don't forget that with the new CBA there is likely to be more compliance buy out.

 

[Nineteen67]

I move Gardiner but keep Nylander. You also try to dump Martin but I think you would likely end up a million to get rid of him. Not a big deal because you gain 1.5. If you look at teams like the Pens, they have been able to pay two Stud CTR's, a winger like Kessel and still have a player like Letang on the team. Obviously we also have Marner but players like Kapanen and Johnson will be dirt cheap and likely be able to get them on bridge deals. Question is will Carlson get offered more than 7.5-It will be close. I'm all for going after both but we would need to have all of the OP dollar amounts basically come in. That will be a tough task.

Lastly our forth line CTR position may be a tough go but having:
Matthews
JT
Kadri

Would make us the class of the east IMO. Add Carlson to that D and instantly everybody becomes better.

If the cap is up to 80 this offseason we are likely looking close to another 5 the following year. Don't forget that with the new CBA there is likely to be more compliance buy out.

If they keep Nylander he has to agree to play D or only take 2/3 of his salary slot, somewhere around 5.5 million.

 

[Menzinger]

Take away Tavares' super elite minutes totals, and I don't think he looks like a franchise centerman anymore.

He’s definitely not.

Still an asset I’d like to have at the right price but folks need to be careful what they’re buying.

I’d wager both Marner and Nylander can our produce him within three seasons

 

[drewjenks]

Except that kills you the year after when you have to sign 9 guys for 20 million.

And the cap won't go up to 85 in a year and a half.

I mean it's nice to dream, but it's not realistic at all

Even though I meant this as a joke...you're not accurately assessing the situation.

To your specific comments:

1) Bettman expects an 82 million cap next year (so 85 million in 2019-20 is realistic).
2) You mention we'd have to sign 9 guys for 20 million in 2020-21....?

*I'll assume ZERO cap space in 2019-20 & cap growth of 2.5 million for 2020-21.

-----------------------------

STARTING CAP SPACE FOR 2020-21 = $2,500,000

- Marleau walks as UFA = $6,250,000 cap space gained.

Required Signings:

- Dermott = $4,750,000 = $3,850,000 cap space lost
- Johnsson = $2,500,000 = $1,600,000 cap space lost
- Grundstrom = $2,000,000 = $1,100,000 cap space lost
- Marchment = $925,000 = $175,000 cap space lost (or replaced on 4th line)
- Aaltonen = $925,000 = ZERO cap space lost (or replaced on 4th line)
- Timashov = $925,000 = $925,000 cap space lost (replaces Marleau)

ENDING CAP SPACE FOR 2020-21 = $1,100,000

*This also doesn't account for the return we'd get for players like: Gardiner, Zaitsev, Brown, Carrick & Leivo (which would include some good players / prospects on ELC's, that would help our cap situation).

2020-21 ROSTER

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Johnsson - Tavares - Nylander
Timashov - Kadri - Kapanen
Grundstrom - Aaltonen - Marchment
----------------------------
(Korshkov - Brooks - Bracco)
(Engvall - Joshua - Dzierkals)

Rielly - Doughty
Dermott - Carlson
Borgman - Liljegren
--------------------
(Nielsen - Rasanen)
(Gordeev - Mattinen)

Anderson
Sparks
-----
(Woll)
(Scott)​

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

Teams rarely solve their problems by overpaying for marquee free agents. Tavares could be an exception but I don't think we're getting him so not holding my breath there. The best teams draft and develop their own players in-house and don't trade their best young assets to patch up short term holes.

And LOL at everybody trying to trade Nylander. A few months ago when Marner was on the 4th line this board was trying to trade him too... Have some patience for Christ's sake these kids are barely 20 years old and they are budding superstars. Washington 'absolutely needed' a defenseman too a few years ago and traded Filip Forsberg to get him. Think they don't regret that trade every single day? We would too.

Nylander is a very good player who we brought up through our own system alongside other very good players. There is a home grown chemistry there that is hard to replace. Not to mention back to back 60pt seasons to start his career and the flexibility to play center or wing. He's got nowhere to go but up and trading him would be a big mistake.

 

[Americanadian]

Teams rarely solve their problems by overpaying for marquee free agents. Tavares could be an exception but I don't think we're getting him so not holding my breath there. The best teams draft and develop their own players in-house and don't trade their best young assets to patch up short term holes.

And LOL at everybody trying to trade Nylander. A few months ago when Marner was on the 4th line this board was trying to trade him too... Have some patience for Christ's sake these kids are barely 20 years old and they are budding superstars. Washington 'absolutely needed' a defenseman too a few years ago and traded Filip Forsberg to get him. Think they don't regret that trade every single day? We would too.

Nylander is a very good player who we brought up through our own system alongside other very good players. There is a home grown chemistry there that is hard to replace. Not to mention back to back 60pt seasons to start his career and the flexibility to play center or wing. He's got nowhere to go but up and trading him would be a big mistake.

They traded Forsberg for Erat, a forward to help put them over the top (which did not work). Forsberg was 19 at the time playing in SEL, no where near Nylanders resume. Nylander could fetch an actual core defenseman.

 

[Americanadian]

Even though I meant this as a joke...you're not accurately assessing the situation.

To your specific comments:

1) Bettman expects an 82 million cap next year (so 85 million in 2019-20 is realistic).
2) You mention we'd have to sign 9 guys for 20 million in 2020-21....?

*I'll assume ZERO cap space in 2019-20 & cap growth of 2.5 million for 2020-21.

-----------------------------

STARTING CAP SPACE FOR 2020-21 = $2,500,000

- Marleau walks as UFA = $6,250,000 cap space gained.

Required Signings:

- Dermott = $4,750,000 = $3,850,000 cap space lost
- Johnsson = $2,500,000 = $1,600,000 cap space lost
- Grundstrom = $2,000,000 = $1,100,000 cap space lost
- Marchment = $925,000 = $175,000 cap space lost (or replaced on 4th line)
- Aaltonen = $925,000 = ZERO cap space lost (or replaced on 4th line)
- Timashov = $925,000 = $925,000 cap space lost (replaces Marleau)

ENDING CAP SPACE FOR 2020-21 = $1,100,000

*This also doesn't account for the return we'd get for players like: Gardiner, Zaitsev, Brown, Carrick & Leivo (which would include some good players / prospects on ELC's, that would help our cap situation).

2020-21 ROSTER

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Johnsson - Tavares - Nylander
Timashov - Kadri - Kapanen
Grundstrom - Aaltonen - Marchment
----------------------------
(Timashov - Brooks - Korshkov)
(Engvall - Joshua - Dzierkals)

Rielly - Doughty
Dermott - Carlson
Borgman - Liljegren
--------------------
(Nielsen - Rasanen)
(Gordeev - Mattinen)

Anderson
Sparks
-----
(Woll)
(Scott)​

View attachment 115131

I have so much respect for you actually looking at the numbers sensibly rather than just saying “we can’t do it” like everyone else. This is all possible.

 

[IBeL34f]

They traded Forsberg for Erat, a forward to help put them over the top (which did not work). Forsberg was 19 at the time playing in SEL, no where near Nylanders resume. Nylander could fetch an actual core defenseman.

Yes, the Forsberg deal was for Erat, not a Defenseman. But Forsberg was doing pretty remarkable things in the SHL, and was still a very valuable asset. (That Washington wasted that asset is another conversation, but one that almost makes me cringe-laugh).

Nylander could fetch us a core Defenseman, but he definitely fetches us a Nylander. Add a blue-liner another way, Willy shouldn't be going anywhere until he prices himself out of our budget.

 

[LeafFever]

No to Carlson

 

[Faltorvo]

My quick math is 10 + 10 + 10 + 7.5 + 7 + 6.5 = 50 million. Those are the players the poster wanted signed.
Plus Rielly(5) Kadri(5) Gardiner (6) Andersen(5)(keeping the rest of the core intact)

Is 70 million for 10 players. Meaning you'd need to sign the rest of the team 12-13 players for less than 10 million.

Yeah no way in heck it works lol.

My math is great thanks.

Well actually YOUR MATH is DEAD wrong

Your posing a cap of LESS than 80 million AFTER we have our next 2 cap raises.

Bettman told the BOG (as reported) the cap could hit 82 m for next season alone , leaving the 2019/20 still to come.

Now, i'm not arguing to get these players but your proposed cap for the 2019/20 season is WAY off.

 

[Advanced stats]

Well actually YOUR MATH is DEAD wrong

Your posing a cap of LESS than 80 million AFTER we have our next 2 cap raises.

Bettman told the BOG (as reported) the cap could hit 82 m for next season alone , leaving the 2019/20 still to come.

Now, i'm not arguing to get these players but your proposed cap for the 2019/20 season is WAY off.

Yep, have fun signing 12 players for 12 million

 

[Machinehead]

Carlson sucks. Glorified PP specialist. Avoid like the plague.

 

[Faltorvo]

Where would you rank JT in terms of Cs and how do you think he performs behind a franchise centreman ?

Save for 5 to 7 names at the C position , i would have 0 issue putting JT up against the remaining names.

I can't see how JT could not mimic what Malkin does in Pitt. Carter in LA.

 

[Faltorvo]

Yep, have fun signing 12 players for 12 million

are you paying attention?

The cap hits he posted are for the 2019/20 season.

Not next season.