Tavares Discussion Thread

[Mickey Marner]

Is there any precedent for nhl players having bad years after having a baby?

Getzlaf 2011-12.

I don't care for the excuse though.

 

[CelticDruid]

Is there any precedent for nhl players having bad years after having a baby?

Im guessing it’s just another made up narrative not supported with any semblance of fact.

Just like with Nylander last year. A completely made up narrative that players are always horrible if the miss camp/beginning of the season. How has that affected Hyman? Lol

I'm sure they can mail their child to one of their eleven bedrooms on game nights.

People talk like they occupy one-bedroom apartments and the baby is screaming none stop in the same room.

Tavares makes over 11 million per year, I'm sure his mansion has baby proofed safe areas

 

[hotpaws]

I'm sure they can mail their child to one of their eleven bedrooms on game nights.

People talk like they occupy one-bedroom apartments and the baby is screaming none stop in the same room.

Tavares makes over 11 million per year, I'm sure his mansion has baby proofed safe areas

people act like he was the one who gave birth to the child and is still recovering from the delivery , lol

 

[Dekes For Days]

do you think it's becaue Andy doesn't like him ? or is he just unlucky as opposed to a guy like Trotz ?

It's because there is a lot of randomness to hockey, and this is a pretty small sample size for something like this. Last year he had an on ice save percentage in the upper half of the league.

 

[hotpaws]

It's because there is a lot of randomness to hockey, and this is a pretty small sample size for something like this. Last year he had an on ice save percentage in the upper half of the league.

it's not a small sample size , many top Corsi teams don't make the playoffs every year and that's because Corsi and many of the other stats based on shot attempts are useless and a waste of time

 

[CDN24]

The problem is people using GA to judge players, without looking at the context behind it.

Yes, Tavares is 5th last in GA/60 among centers at 5v5 with 500+ minutes.
The reason for this is that Tavares is 5th last in on ice save percentage among centers at 5v5 with 500+ minutes.

Tavares is a positive at literally everything other than GA. Positive CF%, FF%, SF%, xGF%, SCF%, HDCF%. Goaltending has been letting him down while he is on the ice.

Correlation does not exactly mean causation though does it. If a guy is on the ice for a lot of goals against chances are the goalie will have a crappy save %- the puck is going in the net. There will be correlation between the two but is it the goalie causing it-doubtful, he is the constant.

Causes could include

• the type of shots goalie is seeing when player X is on the ice (more odd man rushes)
• Maybe player X always draws the tough defensive assignments so the oppositions best offensive players are always on when player X is on
• Maybe player X is now stuck with the worst D pair or linemates
• Maybe player X has lost a step etc.
• maybe the goalie only gets distracted by the hot blonde in the 1st row when player X is on the ice because the hot blonde only only jumps up and down with excitement when play X is on the ice

A lot of things could be the reason but the fact remains that the puck ends up in the Leafs net an awful lot when Tavares has been on the ice and doesn't end up in the opponents net nearly enough. He has worst 5-5 GA60 on the team and the 16th best GF60.

He is 7th in CF%, 9th in FF%, 13th in SF%, 10th in xGF%, 7th in SCF% and 6th in HDCF% If I am paying him 11M a season he better be a bit more than a positive in those categories- he had better be one of the top guys on the team. This year for whatever reason he isn't.

 

[Dekes For Days]

it's not a small sample size , many top Corsi teams don't make the playoffs every year and that's because Corsi and many of the other stats based on shot attempts are useless and a waste of time

1. It is a small sample size.
2. We are not only discussing Corsi.
3. Teams good in these stats trend towards doing better. This does not mean they are perfect 100% predictors of the circumstances that will occur over an 82-game season. As I said, there is a lot of randomness in hockey. Teams that are good at shot attempts but don't have good records over significant sample sizes will tend to be teams lacking in goaltending or offensive finishing ability.

They are not useless at all. You just don't seem to understand them.

 

[Gabriel426]

I'm sure they can mail their child to one of their eleven bedrooms on game nights.

People talk like they occupy one-bedroom apartments and the baby is screaming none stop in the same room.

Tavares makes over 11 million per year, I'm sure his mansion has baby proofed safe areas

Maybe he is not getting any at home and this frustration is leading to his on ice performance. Lol.
Pietra was horrible for a few months after his babies were born.
We forget that these players are also human and a lot of them believe in rituals/routines. And even the slightest change may cost them discomfort. Takes time to adjust.

 

[hotpaws]

1. It is a small sample size.
2. We are not only discussing Corsi.
3. Teams good in these stats trend towards doing better. This does not mean they are perfect 100% predictors of the circumstances that will occur over an 82-game season. As I said, there is a lot of randomness in hockey. Teams that are good at shot attempts but don't have good records over significant sample sizes will tend to be teams lacking in goaltending or offensive finishing ability.

They are not useless at all. You just don't seem to understand them.

yea it's always randomness or an outlier or sample size or people don't understand them to try to explain away every example of how most of these stats are useless , lol

and the funny thing is we don;t have any idea what stats teams value or even what stats they're collecting and using yet you just assume teams use every stat that's available to public

 

[Dekes For Days]

Correlation does not exactly mean causation though does it.

No, it doesn't, so why are you correlating his GA in a small sample to mean he is bad defensively or struggling at tilting the ice when we have stats that support that this isn't the case?

There will be correlation between the two but is it the goalie causing it-doubtful, he is the constant.

It is not doubtful that the goalie is causing it at all. In fact, it is highly likely that it is the goalie causing it. A goalie's play and reaction is not constant for all shots against, or at all times of a game/season. Not even close.

If it was more likely to be Tavares, there would be some indicators of this. Fact is that Andersen is allowing way more goals than should be expected based on the chances that are allowed when Tavares is on the ice.

He is 7th in CF%, 9th in FF%, 13th in SF%, 10th in xGF%, 7th in SCF% and 6th in HDCF% If I am paying him 11M a season he better be a bit more than a positive in those categories- he had better be one of the top guys on the team. This year for whatever reason he isn't.

This is once again ignoring the context of the type of competition Tavares faces. The best players on a team often aren't at the top of all of these categories every year. What's most important is that they are positive, and they are.

 

[Dekes For Days]

yea it's always randomness or an outlier or sample size or people don't understand them to try to explain away every example of how most of these stats are useless

No, it's always people incorrectly using these stats in ridiculous ways to try and discredit stats that are incredibly valuable and pretty easy to use and understand.

 

[Twowingcantfly]

Yep no one should be surprised Tavares is struggling in this system .. he can’t skate people .. keefe has to put Tavares at wing where he isn’t a liability for us defensively.. shouldn’t had signed him to begin with .. on that note .. I know dubas won’t trade him but Tavares won’t get any faster as he ages .. its gonna be hard to watch this guy make 11 million for the next 5 yeArs .

I totally agree with JT being on the wing. I would also shave a couple minutes off his TOI and gave him more pp time. The experiment with Nylander on the wing needs to end. His game is bawling out center.

 

[hotpaws]

No, it's always people incorrectly using these stats in ridiculous ways to try and discredit stats that are incredibly valuable and pretty easy to use and understand.

yea its always randomness , sample size , people using them incorrectly or whatever other excuse some want to use so they can believe every stat has immense value

i remember the stats crowd saying Clarkson graded out as a solid complimentary top 6 player when we signed him and people using the eye test to say he was nothing more than 4th line energy player who benefited from playing with highly skilled linemates were wrong

some of these stats do hold value , most don't and most of the one's many love to throw around on here are useless

 

[LeafsNation75]

yea its always randomness , sample size , people using them incorrectly or whatever other excuse some want to use so they can believe every stat has immense value

i remember the stats crowd saying Clarkson graded out as a solid complimentary top 6 player when we signed him and people using the eye test to say he was nothing more than 4th line energy player who benefited from playing with highly skilled linemates were wrong

some of these stats do hold value , most don't and most of the one's many love to throw around on here are useless

I wouldn't be using John Tavares and David Clarkson is the same sentence. From the moment Clarkson signed I remember right away a lot of Leafs fans who called his contract a mistake, he would never live up to it and how he had 1 career year. Tavares was already proven and elite with the Islanders.

 

[hotpaws]

I wouldn't be using John Tavares and David Clarkson is the same sentence. From the moment Clarkson signed I remember right away a lot of Leafs fans who called his contract a mistake, he would never live up to it and how he had 1 career year. Tavares was already proven and elite with the Islanders.

i didn't mention JT but even if i did the point isn't comparing 2 players but how basing your decisions just on stats is foolish

 

[Dekes For Days]

yea its always randomness , sample size , people using them incorrectly or whatever other excuse some want to use so they can believe every stat has immense value

You don't get to use stats incorrectly, refuse to understand/learn them, and then claim they have no value because when you used it wrong, you came to the wrong conclusion. Maybe stop using them wrong, and you'll see the immense value they hold.

i remember the stats crowd saying Clarkson graded out as a solid complimentary top 6 player when we signed him

Lol, no. Nobody thought the Clarkson signing was good, no matter what you used.

 

[hotpaws]

You don't get to use stats incorrectly, refuse to understand/learn them, and then claim they have no value because when you used it wrong, you came to the wrong conclusion. Maybe stop using them wrong, and you'll see the immense value they hold.


Lol, no. Nobody thought the Clarkson signing was good, no matter what you used.

CDN24 gave you a thorough post and posted many of the stats you just said were very valuable . Unfortunately they didn't support your opinion so you ignored , spun and devalued them and that's the problem with people like you . You say you value these stats but you use them to try to back your opinion and not to form them .

and i never mentioned how much Clarkson signed for , i said the stats crowd said he graded out as top 6 complimentary player and the eye test crowd who said he was just an unskilled 4th line energy player benefiting from playing with skilled linemates were wrong

 

[Dekes For Days]

CDN24 gave you a thorough post and posted many of the stats you just said were very valuable. Unfortunately they didn't support your opinion so you ignored , spun and devalued them and that's the problem with people like you.

CDN did not give a thorough post. He ignored critical context in what the internal ranking of those statistics represents.

I also did not ignore, spin, or devalue anything. I addressed them and gave an explanation.

and i never mentioned how much Clarkson signed for , i said the stats crowd said he graded out as top 6 complimentary player and the eye test crowd who said he was just an unskilled 4th line energy player benefiting from playing with skilled linemates were wrong

This is not true. You are revising history. Clarkson was bashed by everybody, and it was overwhelming consensus that he had one good goal scoring year in a good situation with an inflated SH% and that it was a bad signing. I don't know where you got the idea that Clarkson is some advanced stats darling, but that's not true at all.

In fact, the people who enjoyed that signing tended to be those who only consider raw totals and wanted grit and toughness over ability. What a baffling example.

 

[CDN24]

No, it doesn't, so why are you correlating his GA in a small sample to mean he is bad defensively or struggling at tilting the ice when we have stats that support that this isn't the case?

I said the amount of goals they give up when he is on the ice is a problem, it is a problem. Why that is happening I don't know but it doesn't make it any less of a problem. Only 4 other centres that get regular ice-time in all the league have worse on-ice GA stats 5-5.

It is not doubtful that the goalie is causing it at all. In fact, it is highly likely that it is the goalie causing it. A goalie's play and reaction is not constant for all shots against, or at all times of a game/season. Not even close.

If it was more likely to be Tavares, there would be some indicators of this. Fact is that Andersen is allowing way more goals than should be expected based on the chances that are allowed when Tavares is on the ice.

Why is it highly likely that the goalie is the cause? what other great indicators are there that its the goalies fault? Its not like we send out hutch for Tavares shifts. Something is causing it (maybe luck) but half a season implies somethings happening.

This is once again ignoring the context of the type of competition Tavares faces. The best players on a team often aren't at the top of all of these categories every year. What's most important is that they are positive, and they are.

The best players are not on top every season, I would suggest they are rarely on top because of competition factor, but they are not also on the bottom of GA either. At $11M I want more than positive

Not all shots are created equally and IMO opinion the HDCF metric is fatally flawed. It is dependent on distance and location from where the shot is taken. Take a shot from the hash marks on the faceoff dot (the outside set nearer the boards). If the goalie is square to the shot, every one else is covered and the D have done a good job taking away the cross ice passing lanes most NHL goalies will stop that almost everytime. No a shot from the same location except is a 2-1 and the other guy just passed it over. Probably half of those go in. Shot is from same location though.

Where the other 9 skaters are on the ice impacts the relative danger of a shot way more than its location and that is what stats like HDCF struggle to capture. While GF60 and GA60 may not be predictive stats of what will happen in the future , they are probably the best for evaluation a players past performance.

 

[LeafsNation75]

i didn't mention JT but even if i did the point isn't comparing 2 players but how basing your decisions just on stats is foolish

I agree and my mistake for thinking you were including Tavares along with him.

 

[hotpaws]

I agree and my mistake for thinking you were including Tavares along with him.

no worries , it's easy to lose track of which poster said what when going through threads

 

[CDN24]

CDN did not give a thorough post. He ignored critical context in what the internal ranking of those statistics represents.

I also did not ignore, spin, or devalue anything. I addressed them and gave an explanation.

This is not true. You are revising history. Clarkson was bashed by everybody, and it was overwhelming consensus that he had one good goal scoring year in a good situation with an inflated SH% and that it was a bad signing. I don't know where you got the idea that Clarkson is some advanced stats darling, but that's not true at all.

In fact, the people who enjoyed that signing tended to be those who only consider raw totals and wanted grit and toughness over ability. What a baffling example.

What context did I ignore, I gave a bunch of reasons why Tavares could have some of the worse one-ice goal stats in the league. Then you ignored all that by saying its most likely the goalies fault. The same goalie who can stop a puck when others are on the ice seems to not be able to stop a beachball when JT is on. Wonder why, did JT piss in Andy's cornflakes?

Stats tell you what happened but they still have a long way to go on the why it happened. As for JT maybe his play is as good as last year, they results certainly are not. Which JT is the real one, the one we saw last year or the one we are seeing this year. Curious to see Marners one ice goal stats with and without Tavares and vice versa, both have been pretty bad this year wonder how they do without the other.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

CDN24 gave you a thorough post and posted many of the stats you just said were very valuable . Unfortunately they didn't support your opinion so you ignored , spun and devalued them and that's the problem with people like you . You say you value these stats but you use them to try to back your opinion and not to form them .

and i never mentioned how much Clarkson signed for , i said the stats crowd said he graded out as top 6 complimentary player and the eye test crowd who said he was just an unskilled 4th line energy player benefiting from playing with skilled linemates were wrong

Referring to the bolded, this is a huge problem with this forum in general.

People use stats to back up their already formed opinions rather than use them to form opinions. It is the exact opposite of how they are intended to be used and results in cherry picking due to internal bias

 

[Big Muddy]

After reading through some of the posts, all I can say is that when Andersen returns to form, I look forward to enjoying a long playoff run & perhaps even hoisting the Cup. The rest of the team is solid.

 

[Big Muddy]

CDN24 gave you a thorough post and posted many of the stats you just said were very valuable . Unfortunately they didn't support your opinion so you ignored , spun and devalued them and that's the problem with people like you . You say you value these stats but you use them to try to back your opinion and not to form them .

and i never mentioned how much Clarkson signed for , i said the stats crowd said he graded out as top 6 complimentary player and the eye test crowd who said he was just an unskilled 4th line energy player benefiting from playing with skilled linemates were wrong

“There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
― Benjamin Disraeli

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain