I think Tavares will still go to UFA and could very well come back to NYI after feeling out the water (similar to what Stammer did).
That said, the fact that the Leafs would allow Lou to talk with JT and approve his move to the NYI organisation while knowing the Leafs off-season plans would lead me to believe that JT might actually not be on the Leafs' radar this off-season. I for one wouldn't mind that. I would love me some JT and we can 100% afford him without getting into cap trouble but I think it would be worth our while to hold off a little bit and wait until next years UFA market. There are a ton of quality players going UFA next summer.