TBN: Sullivan: Grigorenko deserves to go pro

[Paxon]

But that's what I would call making a team by "default". Buffalo is pretty thin down the middle, and bringing Grigorenko up just because of that may not be the best for his development, and thus may not be the best for the team longterm.

Toronto brought Schenn up right away, with the argument that he had "earned' a spot in the top 4. All he had to do was outplay the likes of Frogren, Finger, Van Ryn, and Stralman in training camp. Only one of those players is still in the NHL, and predominently plays in a bottom pairing role.

Huberdeau wasn't brought up last year, despite Florida having a pretty thing team up front. Same for Strome with NYI, ZBad with Ottawa, etc. I think the decision should be what's best for Grigorenko longterm, not what's best for the team this year. Because Grigorenkos longterm upside is very much tied to Buffalos.

I don't think any team is wise to bring a player up if he isn't ready, I'm just saying it seems to happen a lot more often for teams that aren't in contention for a Cup. Part of that is obviously because teams in contention don't typically get lottery picks, and another of course is that they have less places. I suppose then it really boils down to the kind of pressure an organization feels to take the 'next step', whatever that means for them.

I can tell you that I'm 99% certain the Sabres don't feel that pressure to a degree that it would make them rush a player along consciously. Perhaps subconsciously it may influence them, but I don't expect it to happen. I fully expect the Lindy to make a sincere evaluation of whether Grigorenko is ready enough and act on it. There's every chance his evaluation turns out to be the incorrect one, but I believe he'll make it from the right perspective.

As I said above in my edit, Grigorenko and the other picks from this year have already played half their juniors season and participated in a WJC, so I don't buy that they'd miss out on much developmental time in juniors. Being around pros helps development as well. The real concerns in my mind are as follows:

#1 He's not worthy of being here. His play hurts the team more than it helps and you've burned an ELC year for the privilege.

#2 His confidence gets destroyed. I don't really think this happens as often as people portray it. I feel like it's more likely the players that do get their confidence destroyed have a small chance of ever making it in the first place, and further that it takes being put in a crazy role (e.g. first line with poor supporting lines) for it to typically happen.

Worst case scenario is probably that he doesn't play well and gets some healthy scratches/4th line games, in which case he's still not missing much of his juniors time all things considered. That's obviously not a good thing especially when you consider burning an ELC, so let me reiterate that I would absolutely not consider keeping him up unless he truly appears ready. It's just that if he appears ready and then falters, it needn't be the end of the world.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

If Grigorenko makes the team, would Ruff still try to ice a proto-typical checking line (with Ennis or Hodgson at C) or switch to a line-up of three balanced scoring lines and a grinder/checking line? I don't think anyone would want to try Grigorenko on a checking line, but I'm not sure Ennis or Hodgson would work out in that role either.

probably the 06 style 2 everydown lines and then a third counter punch line to attack good matchups. Hodgson/Ennis (Drury/Briere) are rolled regularly with Grigs (Roy) used to exploit easy matchups. Grigs juices his ice time numbers like Roy did with second PP time. Then you use Hecht to center a forth line shut down role or a grinder line depending on opponent.

Vanek/Hodgson/Pominville
Stafford/Ennis/Foligno
Leino/Grigorenko/Ott
Kaleta/Hecht(McCormick)/Ellis(Scott)

 

[Paxon]

If Grigorenko makes the team, would Ruff still try to ice a proto-typical checking line (with Ennis or Hodgson at C) or switch to a line-up of three balanced scoring lines and a grinder/checking line? I don't think anyone would want to try Grigorenko on a checking line, but I'm not sure Ennis or Hodgson would work out in that role either.

The projected 4th line (if Grigs is in tow) of Gerbe-Hecht-Kaleta looks like the most likely pure checking line. That's the same line as was used last year with Gaustad (later Leino) replaced by Hecht. I'd say that line has similar defensive potential with better offensive potential. Obviously they wouldn't warrant enough ice time to shadow a top line every shift, so the role in practice would split with Vanek-Hodgson-Pommers as a strong two-way line. Foligno-Ennis-Stafford will get the offensive zone starts. Leino-Grigs-Ott would get the leftovers, which would probably be beneficial to both Leino and Grigorenko.

If Grigs isn't on the team then Hecht has to slide up between Leino and Ott and then a McCormick or Ellis join the 4th line. That 4th line then becomes a lot less reliable for ice time, but would still be solid as a checking line I'd think. If Grigs doesn't make the team, though, I imagine Vanek and Pominville might be split up to spread things around more.

 

[Woodhouse]

One practice and Sully's already comparing Grigorenko to Lemieux, expecting Ruff to gift him a spot in the lineup based on that one double session and running through his standard Ruff-bashing repertoire... not surprised. BTW Vogl offered a simple, balanced take to Grigorenko in his TBN article.

As for the Hecht-bashing, Ruff already said he has a reduced role to start, but obviously future slumps/injuries could impact this, and I thought I saw on Twitter that Hecht averaged something like 17 goals and 71 games per season before his injury problems last year. That's totally worth the $1 million, 1-year deal and you're not going to find a better deal in the UFA market.

 

[flyingpig]

If Hecht can stay healthy, and we know that is a concern, he can filmore than a third line center role. He will penalty kill. He will be a veteran presence in tight games, he can play wing. I do not hitnk it is a Hecht is here so Grigs probably wont be scneario.

If Grigs plays well enough, they will keep him up. It would b exciting if he made the team, but it will increase already inflated expectations. A rare player grows into a strong contributing NHL Player in his first or even second year.

 

[Paxon]

One practice and Sully's already comparing Grigorenko to Lemieux, expecting Ruff to gift him a spot in the lineup based on that one double session and running through his standard Ruff-bashing repertoire... not surprised. BTW Vogl offered a simple, balanced take to Grigorenko in his TBN article.

As for the Hecht-bashing, Ruff already said he has a reduced role to start, but obviously future slumps/injuries could impact this, and I thought I saw on Twitter that Hecht averaged something like 17 goals and 71 games per season before his injury problems last year. That's totally worth the $1 million, 1-year deal and you're not going to find a better deal in the UFA market.

Read somewhere that Hecht is 20th in Sabres games played, goals, and assists. To be 20th in goals and assists while 20th in games means your production is not shabby, especially considering he's a player best not evaluated purely by offensive production.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

If Grigs isn't on the team then Hecht has to slide up between Leino and Ott and then a McCormick or Ellis join the 4th line. That 4th line then becomes a lot less reliable for ice time, but would still be solid as a checking line I'd think. If Grigs doesn't make the team, though, I imagine Vanek and Pominville might be split up to spread things around more.

If Grigs doesn't make the team Ruff goes into lockdown mode like he did with 99 team. Lean on the Ennis line in the offensive zone and Hodgson/Hecht to lockdown the opposing teams top 6. Hope to the hockey gods that Miller wins another Vezina.

Sure do hope Grigs makes it.

 

[joshjull]

If the kid can play at the NHL level, and be effective, then let him play. If he can't, send him back.

It's really as simple as that. Anything more is just over analyzing and trying to sound smart.

Succinct and spot on. Nicely done.

Although I have to say Rob Paxon and Zip made some good points. So they weren't just sounding smart. They were smart.

 

[5 Minute Major]

Honestly, I don't know how anyone can determine an 18 year old kid is ready to go pro after one practice. Not a game, not a pre-season game.....not even a scrimmage, but practice. Where is Allen Iverson when you need him?

Maybe Sullivan is in the wrong business and should be a hockey scout.

 

[joshjull]

I always get a chuckle out of Sully. A baseball/basketball guy trapped in a football/hockey town.

He probably researched working in this town about as much as he researches his articles.

 

[SackTastic]

Succinct and spot on. Nicely done.

Although I have to say Rob Paxon and Zip made some good points. So they weren't just sounding smart. They were smart.

Yeah, I didn't mean to imply they weren't if that's how I sounded.

 

[Jeremy2020]

What has either team done lately to not deserve the cynicism??

The Bills are a 13 year old tire fire that are incompetently run.

And the Sabres are a boring mediocre team with a hockey department that is scared to try different things. Although, I think that is improving slightly.

That is not an excuse to just spew forth drivel without any research or....ya know...effort. Sullivan is a perfect example of why the media is terrible. He is given a podium and provides no worthwhile content, but gets to stay because of that podium.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I tried to watch as much as I could of him in the WJC's and he did not do that much to impress. But, given what he did in juniors so far this year puts him at the very top of that system.

I want him to get a 5 game try out and see what happens. 5 games isn't much, but it's something. Would hate to waste a year on his contract if he does not adjust well to the NHL game.

Completely disagree. He was very impressive in this year's tournament. His line was by far the most dangerous. That's what makes Grigs special; he makes his teammates better. He had an excellent tournament, and may have been Russia's best player.

I want to see him up here if he deserves. Unfortunately, 5 games isn't nearly enough to evaluate whether or not a player is ready for pros.

 

[Ralonzo]

A preseason + 9-game tryout would have been very nice to have this year to evaluate Grigo and see if he can carve out a roster spot. With a sprint-type season and ELC considerations I'd have to think the odds are against him sticking. A 5-game taste and then sending him back to Quebec with a list of things to work on and a notion of what it's like to be a professional could be for the best long-term.

 

[Buffaloed]

The Sabres had to make the same decision with Myers and they kept him. Hecht will have about as much influence on whether the Sabres keep Grigorenko as Paetsch did on the decision to keep Myers.

I don't think Regier is concerned about burning a year of Grigorenko's entry level deal. It would have been a huge factor under the Golisano ownership. It wouldn't shock me if they kept Grigs up for 15 games before making a decision.

 

[Jacob582]

The Sabres had to make the same decision with Myers and they kept him. Hecht will have about as much influence on whether the Sabres keep Grigorenko as Paetsch did on the decision to keep Myers.

I don't think Regier is concerned about burning a year of Grigorenko's entry level deal. It would have been a huge factor under the Golisano ownership. It wouldn't shock me if they kept Grigs up for 15 games before making a decision.

Paetsch or Dennis Wideman?

 

[vcv]

The Sabres had to make the same decision with Myers and they kept him. Hecht will have about as much influence on whether the Sabres keep Grigorenko as Paetsch did on the decision to keep Myers.

I don't think Regier is concerned about burning a year of Grigorenko's entry level deal. It would have been a huge factor under the Golisano ownership. It wouldn't shock me if they kept Grigs up for 15 games before making a decision.

Which decision is that?

 

[Jacob582]

Which decision is that?

Decision to trade Hodgson and make Grigorenko #1 center.

 

[joshjull]

Which decision is that?

I'm assuming he is refering to whether to send him back to juniors. Since using a year of his ELC doesn't matter they may give him a look beyond the 5 games.

 

[ottsabrefan]

One of the worst hockey articles I have ever read.

I've never heard of a team a team being slammed for taking their time with prospects. Yikes! He should have learned something from Connolly and Pyatt.

I'm not sure what the panic is over Grigorenko not making the team this year. He will be be here for the next 20 years!

Furthermore, it won't be just Lindy who decides if he makes the team. They will all gather and consider whether they feel he is ready to make the team and will do what is in HIS best interest (not the team's, short term). I'm sure Lindy would love to have all his talent at his arsenal.

 

[ottsabrefan]

Completely disagree. He was very impressive in this year's tournament. His line was by far the most dangerous. That's what makes Grigs special; he makes his teammates better. He had an excellent tournament, and may have been Russia's best player.

Agreed.

 

[joshjull]

The projected 4th line (if Grigs is in tow) of Gerbe-Hecht-Kaleta looks like the most likely pure checking line. That's the same line as was used last year with Gaustad (later Leino) replaced by Hecht. I'd say that line has similar defensive potential with better offensive potential. Obviously they wouldn't warrant enough ice time to shadow a top line every shift, so the role in practice would split with Vanek-Hodgson-Pommers as a strong two-way line. Foligno-Ennis-Stafford will get the offensive zone starts. Leino-Grigs-Ott would get the leftovers, which would probably be beneficial to both Leino and Grigorenko.

If Grigs isn't on the team then Hecht has to slide up between Leino and Ott and then a McCormick or Ellis join the 4th line. That 4th line then becomes a lot less reliable for ice time, but would still be solid as a checking line I'd think. If Grigs doesn't make the team, though, I imagine Vanek and Pominville might be split up to spread things around more.

But the catch is they wont be used as one for 3 reasons.

1) Ruff doesn't use a pure checking line and hasn't since Peca/CuBro left. There was a few week window this year but that was the exception.

2) A 4th line doesn't play enough to be a pure checking line. When he does have one its one of his top 3 lines.

3) Hecht is horrible at faceoffs and is hardly the center you want coming out to take a key defensive zone draw.

 

[GodHatesBuffalo]

I also am going to put out there that I don't necessarily agree about the sentiments regarding 18 year olds playing and having success in the "new" NHL. I think players like Sean Couturier and Ryan Johansen were exposed to the NHL a bit too early (but that's just a personal opinion). Grigorenko is a special prospect; one that I am overly excited to see play. But if he ain't ready, don't thrust him into action and expect him not to be snakebitten and a bit discouraged. His potential raises the more he's allowed to grow.

I couldn't disagree more. Couturier worked on his two-way game and was not given the role of a playmaker. He was behind Giroux and Briere on the center depth chart, and him and schenn were brought in to learn the NHL and not given much power play time.
His numbers were still decent given his situation and he even put up a hat trick against pittsburgh in the post season.

You can't simply look at stats as the only indicator for how useful NHL experience is on a player. I'm pretty certain that a similar development would be much more beneficial to Grigorenko in comparison with the alternative, the QMJHL.

I want someone to display EVIDENCE on how its a good idea to keep Grigorenko in juniors. I don't see any downside in a player of Grigs stature learning in the big league.

 

[LaxSabre]

His jersey has soldout at Sabres Store - https://twitter.com/JeremyWGR/status/290883680333877248/photo/1

Jeremy White ‏@JeremyWGR - Hmmmm. One jersey seems to be selling well. Who's between 24 and 26? #grigorenko pic.twitter.com/jIQVLuT8

Brad Kaczmarek - ‏@bradkaz96 - @JeremyWGR damn work now I won't get one, are they taking orders at the discounted price?

Jeremy White ‏@JeremyWGR - @bradkaz96 - yes I think so.

LS: Jeremy White sent that photo an hour ago - no word if they put more of his jersey on the rack or not in the meantime or if they plan on having more of his jersey available for people who are attending tonights open practice/scrimmage. Or if once its soldout, its soldout for the day because they can't bring in more of his jersey until the next day. (They make the jerseys at another place and "truck" them in and may only do one delivery per day.)

According to Jeremys second tweet - he thinks if his (or any other player jersey for that matter) is soldout (in your size/color of jersey that you want) and you can't get to the store again before the sale ends Sunday, you can order his jersey right then and still get the 50% off discount. (I going to say this is true - no way the Sabres will want to lose a sale and also pissed off a fan especially now.)

 

[SackTastic]

According to Uncle Ted this morning, they were not even selling Grig jerseys.