Speculation: Strome, Nylander or Gaudette: who do you expose in the ED??

[WeAreSoPucked]

"... You're better off protecting Strome and trade him in the off season ... or even possibly try to dangle him as trade bait to Seattle to goat them into picking who you really want to get rid of ... DeHaan).

No Bowman jr fan but if he can bamboozle the Krakens into taking both Strome & deHaan (and their contracts) from the Hawks, I will nominate him for Greatest GM of Alltime - not just in hockey, in any sport.
And you as the greatest HFawk of alltime for the suggestion.

 

[crazyhawk]

I wonder if Strome is being effected by ongoing concussion symptoms ... the type that don't show to the common NHL protocols.

 

[dj Mahoney]

GAUDETTE

 

[Brightwing]

So in today's article in The Athletic, Lazarus was looking at various numbers associated with the season. I'm pretty much done with Strome (though I think he should be traded and not exposed). But am wondering if I'm being too harsh? Is xGF a useful stat? Is this just a slump? My eye test is saying he's not "one of the Blackhawks' more effective players".

4. Dylan Strome is the only Blackhawks player with an xGF percentage higher than 50 percent (50.35). But the Blackhawks have been outscored 22-13 at five-on-five with Strome on the ice. As Strome has said multiple times this year, after unlikely wins and cruel defeats, that’s just the way hockey goes sometimes.
Strome’s production has dipped dramatically this season, with just eight goals and six assists in 37 games as he’s shuffled between center (his preferred spot) and wing (where he’d be more valuable to the team) and on and off Alex DeBrincat’s line. But Strome continues to be one of the Blackhawks’ more effective players. For whatever reason, the Blackhawks’ shooting percentage with Strome on the ice is just 5.73. It’s lower only when fourth-liners David Kampf and Ryan Carpenter are on the ice.
Meanwhile, the perception is the Blackhawks give up too much defensively with Strome on the ice. But this season, he’s dead even in high-danger chances. The Blackhawks are both generating and giving up 11 high-danger chances per 60 minutes with Strome on the ice. Among forwards, that’s better than Patrick Kane, DeBrincat, Kirby Dach Vinnie Hinostroza, Kampf, Pius Suter, Philipp Kurashev, Brandon Hagel and more.

 

[HockeySauce]

So in today's article in The Athletic, Lazarus was looking at various numbers associated with the season. I'm pretty much done with Strome (though I think he should be traded and not exposed). But am wondering if I'm being too harsh? Is xGF a useful stat? Is this just a slump? My eye test is saying he's not "one of the Blackhawks' more effective players".

4. Dylan Strome is the only Blackhawks player with an xGF percentage higher than 50 percent (50.35). But the Blackhawks have been outscored 22-13 at five-on-five with Strome on the ice. As Strome has said multiple times this year, after unlikely wins and cruel defeats, that’s just the way hockey goes sometimes.
Strome’s production has dipped dramatically this season, with just eight goals and six assists in 37 games as he’s shuffled between center (his preferred spot) and wing (where he’d be more valuable to the team) and on and off Alex DeBrincat’s line. But Strome continues to be one of the Blackhawks’ more effective players. For whatever reason, the Blackhawks’ shooting percentage with Strome on the ice is just 5.73. It’s lower only when fourth-liners David Kampf and Ryan Carpenter are on the ice.
Meanwhile, the perception is the Blackhawks give up too much defensively with Strome on the ice. But this season, he’s dead even in high-danger chances. The Blackhawks are both generating and giving up 11 high-danger chances per 60 minutes with Strome on the ice. Among forwards, that’s better than Patrick Kane, DeBrincat, Kirby Dach Vinnie Hinostroza, Kampf, Pius Suter, Philipp Kurashev, Brandon Hagel and more.

I don't think anyone is being too harsh and this is where the analytics and eye-test run into problems. There are no metrics for measuring a single player's effectiveness analytically. There are always 5 players on the ice for both teams. What you would expect is a good player, who's always driving play -- and through that or by limiting other teams defensively -- will have consistently good numbers (like xGF) over time bc of their impact on the ice. xGF% takes into account chances (regardless of whether or not a goal is scored) that generally result in goals for both teams while any given player is on the ice. So essentially the stat is saying Strome is giving up as much as he creates at ES this year.

Over the last three years (including this year), Strome has an xGF% of 46%; DeBrincat is at 46% and Kane is at 44%. This year, Strome is at 50%; DeBrincat's at 44% and Kane's at 41%. There's no question that Kane and DeBrincat are far more effective forwards at even-strength but analytically, the Hawks are a better team with Strome on the ice according to xGF%.

 

[LordKOTL]

Honestly, I'm okay with exposing any of them.

 

[Hawkey]

Regardless of what actually happens, it’s clear that the Hawks are not going to end up losing anything that we would consider to be a quality player or a player that you can’t find in the open market for cheap.

I just hope Stan doesn’t try to over-think this and try do some kind of stupid deal to protect or try unload a contract with a player. Just take the loss of a player and move on.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Opinion: Expose Strome, and hope that Seattle takes Kampf, Carpenter or Stillman.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Blackhawks’ Adam Gaudette anticipates big offseason after overcoming candidiasis

Saw this, and thought to myself, what if now that he is finally able to add weight/strength, he turns his career around? I'd be more willing to take the gamble on him, than Nylander.

 

[RayP]

Every time I see him play there is something about his game I just really like, but hard to pin point.

I’d give Strome away at this point and don’t care for Nylander. Wouldn’t he upset if we didn’t protect Gaudette but he’s probably who I’d protect by default for lack of a better option. I’m expecting Nylander to be protected, though.

 

[HockeySauce]

Gaudette is going to be 25 at the start of next season. His best year was 33 points in 59 games, last year and then he regressed hard this year. We acquired him at the expense of a NHL tweener. You keep Nylander over him.

 

[Pez68]

Gaudette is going to be 25 at the start of next season. His best year was 33 points in 59 games, last year and then he regressed hard this year. We acquired him at the expense of a NHL tweener. You keep Nylander over him.

"Regressed hard this year"?

You're talking about a guy that had undiagnosed Candidiasis, and then had a really bad case of COVID. It's entirely possible that Gaudette improves going forward, with the Candidiasis in check.

Also, lol @ Gaudette having to send his blood tests to his high school nutritionist to get this diagnosed. What a top notch medical staff Vancouver has....

 

[HockeySauce]

"Regressed hard this year"?

You're talking about a guy that had undiagnosed Candidiasis, and then had a really bad case of COVID. It's entirely possible that Gaudette improves going forward, with the Candidiasis in check.

Also, lol @ Gaudette having to send his blood tests to his high school nutritionist to get this diagnosed. What a top notch medical staff Vancouver has....

If his Candidiasis was just diagnosed recently, that means he'd spent some time (the article makes it sound like a considerable amount of time) living with the condition, unbeknownst to him. Which means you might expect to see an improvement post-diagnosis/treatment but you wouldn't have expected to see a hard regression considering he'd be living with it all that time. And it doesn't sound like it was particularly debilitating. His COVID situation happened just before he was traded to us. It didn't impact any part of his season prior to in Vancouver.

Sure it's possible Gaudette improves going forward. It's also possible the Nylander improves. The question being, who you'd rather protect in expansion and to me, that's clearly Nylander who has a similar NHL resume but who is 2 years younger.

 

[Pez68]

If his Candidiasis was just diagnosed recently, that means he'd spent some time (the article makes it sound like a considerable amount of time) living with the condition, unbeknownst to him. Which means you might expect to see an improvement post-diagnosis/treatment but you wouldn't have expected to see a hard regression considering he'd be living with it all that time. And it doesn't sound like it was particularly debilitating. His COVID situation happened just before he was traded to us. It didn't impact any part of his season prior to in Vancouver.

Sure it's possible Gaudette improves going forward. It's also possible the Nylander improves. The question being, who you'd rather protect in expansion and to me, that's clearly Nylander who has a similar NHL resume but who is 2 years younger.

I'm not sure you don't protect both of them. Are there really better forwards to protect?

You don't think constantly throwing up, having no appetite, and not being able to put on weight is particularly debilitating? For a hockey player?????

 

[Hawkaholic]

Gaudette is going to be 25 at the start of next season. His best year was 33 points in 59 games, last year and then he regressed hard this year. We acquired him at the expense of a NHL tweener. You keep Nylander over him.

He has shown more in 5 games with us, than Nylander did in his 60+ games with us last year. He is only 1yr and 5 months older than Nylander, but was more of a late bloomer. If Gaudette is going to put on muscle and weight, there is zero reason to think he won't be better than he has been the last 2 years, next year. And everyone on Vancouver sucked this year, so I take his performance this year with them, with a grain of salt.

But yeah, they probably will keep both, and expose Strome.

 

[HockeySauce]

He has shown more in 5 games with us, than Nylander did in his 60+ games with us last year. He is only 1yr and 5 months older than Nylander, but was more of a late bloomer. If Gaudette is going to put on muscle and weight, there is zero reason to think he won't be better than he has been the last 2 years, next year. And everyone on Vancouver sucked this year, so I take his performance this year with them, with a grain of salt.

But yeah, they probably will keep both, and expose Strome.

You're joking right? Gaudette's been fine in his games. What exactly has he shown in 5 games that you *never* saw from Nylander over the course of last year? Nylander had some good stretches last year. Including, somewhat ironically enough, his last 5 games of the year prior to the pause where he had 5 points in 5 games (all at ES) with 10 SOG. Compare that to Gaudette's 5 games so far, with 4 points (3 at ES) and 5 SOG.

 

[Pez68]

It's a silly argument anyways, as I fully expect them to protect both of them. Bye Strome.

 

[Marotte Marauder]

Nylander had some good stretches last year. Including, somewhat ironically enough, his last 5 games of the year prior to the pause where he had 5 points in 5 games (all at ES) with 10 SOG. Compare that to Gaudette's 5 games so far, with 4 points (3 at ES) and 5 SOG.

So the argument is tha Nylander had a stretch of games equal to Gaudette?
Nylander's stretch were games # 60-65 with the team and Gaudette's were games #1-5.

I'd say, advantage Gaudette.

 

[ClydeLee]

Strome scratched again tonight.

Just use one, anyone if it gets DeHaan off the club next year I'm for it. Try to thrive with more young Ds actually playing more

 

[Hawkaholic]

You're joking right? Gaudette's been fine in his games. What exactly has he shown in 5 games that you *never* saw from Nylander over the course of last year? Nylander had some good stretches last year. Including, somewhat ironically enough, his last 5 games of the year prior to the pause where he had 5 points in 5 games (all at ES) with 10 SOG. Compare that to Gaudette's 5 games so far, with 4 points (3 at ES) and 5 SOG.

Nope, he has shown a higher hockey IQ, more willingness to go to the dirty areas, and a better compete level night in and night out. Nylander showed a compete level, about 15% of the time. Nylander flies into the opps zone, stops, turns to look for someone and then turns the puck over 80% of the time. The only thing keeping him in the league is his skill, but that will only last so long if he doesn't improve in all the other areas. The real Nylander showed up in the playoffs, 0pts, lack of effort, and a healthy scratch.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Nope, he has shown a higher hockey IQ, more willingness to go to the dirty areas, and a better compete level night in and night out. Nylander showed a compete level, about 15% of the time. Nylander flies into the opps zone, stops, turns to look for someone and then turns the puck over 80% of the time. The only thing keeping him in the league is his skill, but that will only last so long if he doesn't improve in all the other areas. The real Nylander showed up in the playoffs, 0pts, lack of effort, and a healthy scratch.

Sounds a lot like Strome.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Sounds a lot like Strome.

Yeah, I could do without either of those players. Use them as trade bait or lose them for nothing, I could care less.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Yeah, I could do without either of those players. Use them as trade bait or lose them for nothing, I could care less.

Keep Nylander, younger and cheaper.

 

[ClydeLee]

Nope, he has shown a higher hockey IQ, more willingness to go to the dirty areas, and a better compete level night in and night out. Nylander showed a compete level, about 15% of the time. Nylander flies into the opps zone, stops, turns to look for someone and then turns the puck over 80% of the time. The only thing keeping him in the league is his skill, but that will only last so long if he doesn't improve in all the other areas. The real Nylander showed up in the playoffs, 0pts, lack of effort, and a healthy scratch.

That Nylander you describe was not that way 80% of the time at all. You're judging soundly more off the playoffs, where we know he was hurt but somehow people can't change that picture off of later received information.

On the 4th line with Highmore/Kampf/Carpenter players he was great at playing north-south, picking off passes on forechecks, getting the puck in and setting up or creating some plays with north-south guys. From January to the end of the regular season he was like that when he played with them, then got that hot streak with Strome and Kane. Then he was hurt and bad in the playoffs which don't mean a whole lot

 

[Hawkaholic]

That Nylander you describe was not that way 80% of the time at all. You're judging soundly more off the playoffs, where we know he was hurt but somehow people can't change that picture off of later received information.

On the 4th line with Highmore/Kampf/Carpenter players he was great at playing north-south, picking off passes on forechecks, getting the puck in and setting up or creating some plays with north-south guys. From January to the end of the regular season he was like that when he played with them, then got that hot streak with Strome and Kane. Then he was hurt and bad in the playoffs which don't mean a whole lot

I did forget he was hurt, but he was well enough to play, just the same uninspiring play we saw from him the majority of the year. He was more bad than good the entire year. He was never great, he was good a handful of games here and there.