From one side of your mouth your are talking about keeping TJ in case Stamkos goes down, on the other side of your mouth you are advocating trading Bishop.
Tonights game should be an indication of how impossible it is to account for injuries.
If you can't tell the difference between long term and the span of a few months then I can't help you.
I'll add that all these snide comments about imaginary "fallacies" or that I'm somehow talking out of both sides of my mouth are NOT a valid substitute for an intelligent response to the points I've made. You aren't fooling anybody.
Finally, though I suspect you'll still continue to ignore my points and make snide comments while contributing no original thought of your own, there's an enormous difference between the two scenarios you mentioned. Bishop is gone at the end of the season anyway, so trading him for another rental like Shattenkirk has zero ramifications beyond this season and can therefore be considered as an attempt to jump start what frankly looks like a failure of a season without impacting our future. What you propose, on the other hand, would create a massive longterm hole in exchange for exactly zero benefit beyond the next few months; again if you can't see the difference between the two or want to call my pointing that out "talking out of the other side of my mouth" then I see that further debate with you would just be a waste of my time.
Honestly, I'm a bit hesitant on TyJo for Shattenkirk.
Although, in all fairness, Shattenkirk isn't signed for next season. If TyJo is the best center we can get, I can get on board.
I just think Shattenkirk is a much more established player, and you know what you are getting with him. TyJo has one great season, and a couple of seaons that aren't that much different from what the Blues have had with Backes and Stastny (playing styles aside).
Can a Lightning fan explain why he hit 70 points a few seasons back, but not really close since? Did he play a lot of first line minutes that season? Was that the year of the "triplets" line?
Speed and defensive abilities seem great. Size and points are a bit worrisome. I mean, Shattenkirk is currently outscoring TyJo....
What about Shattenkirk, Allen and Jaskin for TJ and Bishop ($950k retained)? Allen could benefit from a change of scenery and coaching, and the Bolts will eventually need to acquire a goalie with NHL experience under contract or control to expose in the expansion draft so they don't have to expose Vasi. If Vegas doesn't take him, he will be back in a 1B situation where he thrived in prior seasons. I'm sure Bishop would have no problem returning to his home town team. Blues probably need to add a pick or prospect.
What about Shattenkirk, Allen and Jaskin for TJ and Bishop ($950k retained)? Allen could benefit from a change of scenery and coaching, and the Bolts will eventually need to acquire a goalie with NHL experience under contract or control to expose in the expansion draft so they don't have to expose Vasi. If Vegas doesn't take him, he will be back in a 1B situation where he thrived in prior seasons. I'm sure Bishop would have no problem returning to his home town team. Blues probably need to add a pick or prospect.
Would Tampa rather do a Shattenkirk for Johnson trade or a Shattenkirk for Filppula trade with significant incentive to St. Louis to take Filppula?
Would Tampa rather do a Shattenkirk for Johnson trade or a Shattenkirk for Filppula trade with significant incentive to St. Louis to take Filppula?
What players would you have to leave exposed if Filppula doesn't have his NMC to be exposed in the draft?
It's not as simple as that as we also have cap considerations to take into account. If we only look at who our best forwards are and assume that Filppula is moved or waives his NMC and that Callahan isn't traded or bought out, we would obviously protect Stamkos, Callahan, Kucherov, Drouin, Johnson, Palat, and Killorn.
However we're probably looking at having to offload three big contracts (not including Bishop who will walk as a UFA) in order to get under the cap; our likely options in that regard are Filppula, Callahan, Johnson, Palat, Drouin, Garrison, and Coburn (we obviously aren't moving Kucherov and unless we think his health will be an issue going forward I can't see us making Stralman a cap casualty over one of our other high priced defensemen.) Our defense is already a major point of weakness so I don't see us moving two veteran defensemen, and we obviously don't want to lose any more of our talented young forwards than we have to, so barring any major shakeup trades we're probably going to want to move one defenseman and two forwards.
As to who that would be, most of us figure Garrison will be the defenseman on his way out: not only is he more expensive with a shorter term than Coburn but he's also not having the greatest year (which is unfortunate as before this season it looked like he would fetch a nice return; with only a year left on his deal we should still be able to move him but we probably won't get much for him at this point unless he really turns things around in the second half of the season.) As to the forwards, in an ideal world we would move Flip and Callahan, but Callahan will be next to impossible to trade so we would have to buy him out. Which might well happen, but if not we're probably looking at losing Filppula and one of our young guys; what nobody seems to agree on is which young guy it will be.
So getting back to the original question, if we plan on moving Garrison, Filppula, and one of our young forwards, we obviously wouldn't want to protect that young forward only to trade him later - we'd ideally want to either trade him before the draft or possibly expose him and let Vegas take him in lieu of another player (depending on whether or not the return we could get for trading him would be better than the player we would protect by letting Vegas take him.) And that's all difficult to predict at the moment - we don't know which young forward we'd want to lose, which teams would make an offer for him or what those offers would be, or if Yzerman might shake things up even further by buying out Callahan or making a big trade involving people we didn't think would be moving.
Is there a difference for Tampa fans in losing Killorn to expansion or trading Filppula and keeping Killorn? Or do both need to be moved for long-term cap health?
Trading Filppula and keeping Killorn is preferable to losing Killorn to expansion. Between the two, Filppula doesn't have much impact on long-term cap health as he only has one more year on his deal. That one year remaining also means he is an easy buyout if there is no trade market for him between now and the expansion draft.
I think the term of Killorn's recent contract was a tell of Yzerman's commitment to keeping him around. He isn't untouchable in a trade. He might be exposed in the expansion draft for financial reasons. Overall though, I expect Killorn will still be on the Lightning at the start of next season racking up his consistent .5ppg in the streakiest ways possible.
Palat, Johnson, and Drouin contracts will determine the long-term cap health. Much like the Stamkos, Hedman, and Kucherov extensions this past past summer, I remain confident Yzerman finds a way to make it all fit together financially and all three of those impending extensions come in less than the average Lightning fan fears.
As for the Flip+ or Johnson for Shattenkirk question...it would depend on the plus. We don't view Filppula as a cap liability that needs a significant add, but, would certainly expect to add something to him in any deal for Shattenkirk. What'd you have in mind?
I don't see us finding a way to protect Killorn. I think that contract was signed with the expansion draft in mind. Yzerman doesn't like giving term. Alex Killorn got the 3rd longest contract Yzerman has ever handed out, the only longer ones being to Stamkos and Hedman. I agree that it's a tell, but I think it's a tell that Yzerman doesn't expect the contract to be on the books next year.
Sad to see Killorn go, but I'd be surprised if he's on the roster next year. And then, after the expansion draft passes and no one's panicking over protection slots anymore, we can trade Filppula for a pretty solid return (so long as he remains at his current level of play throughout the year).
All that said, I don't think we can afford to trade a center right now. Yeah, Shattenkirk would fill a hole, but by trading a C we'd be opening up an even bigger one. Neither Namestnikov or Point look capable of taking over for either Flip or Johnson right now. We're struggling now, definitely, but I don't see how we could tread water until Stamkos returns if we lose either of these guys.
The assumption is this deal happens at the deadline, which changes things
I'm not sure that it does, unless we get news that Stamkos is close to returning. Or maybe if Namestnikov or Point look like they can handle a top-six C role by then.
The trade deadline is only a week or two off from when Stamkos is scheduled to return
I think these two teams make great trade partners, and a win-win trade can be made.
Best pieces available:
Tyler Johnson
Alex Killorn
Valterri Filppula
J Drouin
Jason Garrison
Slater Koekkoek
Vladamir Namestnikov
Futures
A trade centered around Tyler Johnson and Jason Garrison for Shattenkirk I think would be great for both sides, with other pieces moving to smooth out the value. Lightning can retain 50% on Johnson to make #'s work.
Lightning get a right handed PMD who is a perfect fit on the PP. Blues swap the extra top 4 RHD for a top 4 LHD on a good contract, and get a great center under team control.