Blue Jays Discussion: Steve Pearce: comeback machine

[Bad News Benning]

Too much negativity about next year. I'd honestly be fine with bringing back a similar team next year with a few changes(Alford, Hernandez, etc in the outfield, an upgrade on Goins/Barney at utility infielder, and a 5th starter that can be half decent and eat innings..aka not Liriano). I think a lot of things went wrong for the jays this year and the organizational depth in the upper minors just wasn't there to compensate. I expect the AA/AAA rosters to be much deeper with talent next season which will be a boon if/when injuries strike. There is a big difference between the crap we called up to spot start this year compared with some of the arms that will be able to contribute at some point next year. Just look at the collection of garbage that started for the jays this season...it's no wonder this team is getting **** kicked so often.

 

[Eyedea]

Jays related notes from FG prospect chat:

Pearced: Thoughts on Pannone? Solid back end starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: That's probably his ceiling. Not sure how that fastball will play in the big leagues.


Joe Schlmo: Teoscar Hernandez a solid regular next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Has hit well since finding footwork he was comfortable with in the box.


Big Tuna: Which prospect improved their value the most at the deadline? (either by trade or trade of competition)

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Teoscar, who gets a shot to play more regularly now.


Erix: Do you have Connor Greene thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: 70 fastball. I think that's kind of it.


PF: What do you make of the Blue Jays' business this trade deadline? Pannone seems really interesting by the stat line scouting no?

Eric A Longenhagen: He does, but the guy I think is very interesting is Samad Taylor. 70 runner, premium athlete, sneaky raw power for his size.

 

[canucksfan]

Too much negativity about next year. I'd honestly be fine with bringing back a similar team next year with a few changes(Alford, Hernandez, etc in the outfield, an upgrade on Goins/Barney at utility infielder, and a 5th starter that can be half decent and eat innings..aka not Liriano). I think a lot of things went wrong for the jays this year and the organizational depth in the upper minors just wasn't there to compensate. I expect the AA/AAA rosters to be much deeper with talent next season which will be a boon if/when injuries strike. There is a big difference between the crap we called up to spot start this year compared with some of the arms that will be able to contribute at some point next year. Just look at the collection of garbage that started for the jays this season...it's no wonder this team is getting **** kicked so often.

I think their big question marks are Tulo and Travis.

 

[Morgs]

Olney is a moron. There isn't one good reason to trade Stroman.

 

[Bad News Benning]

"Most of the Jays fans I know" does not equal "very many fans"

You take away the star power and drop the payroll to 50m you're going to see less than 25k people at the dome.

"come to the ball park next year! we have Bichette and Guerrero coming in another year"

fans: "who?? you mean those washed up old guys?? i thought they were retired! no thanks"

majority of baseball fans aren't like the ones on this message board following the prospects daily. Telling fans "we're rebuilding" doesn't really work in baseball like other sports.

I also think it's silly how many people have given up on 2018 already...with some tweaks and better fortune I could see this team contending for the playoffs next year.

 

[Bad News Benning]

I think their big question marks are Tulo and Travis.

well yeah that's why i said finding an upgrade on Goins/Barney. Upgrading on guys providing .600 OPS shouldn't be too hard.

I hope we can target a team that's deep in middle infielders and already has it's 2b/SS in place. Might be able to steal an MLB ready middle infielder for cheap.

 

[Morgs]

Definitely being sold short, already have quite a few pieces in place and hopefully we'll see guys like Teoscar and Alford/Pompey step in and succeed.

C - Russ
1B/DH - Smoak/Pearce
2B - Travis (Refsnyder when he gets injured)
3B - JD
SS - Tulo
LF - Teoscar
CF - Pillar
RF - Alford

Doesn't look too much worse than 2016 (obviously it is), especially if Russ repeats this year, and Tulo bounces back to league average. Also would be nice having 2 legitimate aces, Happ, and Marco as your top-4 starters.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Olney is a moron. There isn't one good reason to trade Stroman.

I think a lot of insiders are just the types who want massive carnage across baseball come the trade deadline. If no big trades happen it's bad for them so they push the agenda that all the non playoff teams should sell everything and the contenders need to trade for everyone.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think a lot of insiders are just the types who want massive carnage across baseball come the trade deadline. If no big trades happen it's bad for them so they push the agenda that all the non playoff teams should sell everything and the contenders need to trade for everyone.

Everyone should remember that every media mind/personality cheers for the story. So when teams stand pat, appropriate or not, they tend to be upset.

 

[Eyedea]

I definitely think the pitching depth will be a lot better next year. Rowley, Pannonne, SRF, Borucki, even Greene and Rios figure to spend time at AAA. Zeuch/Romano/Perdomo at AA.

However I believe Greene, Rowley, Pannonne, Rios, and Perdomo are all rule 5 eligible so who knows what will happen to a couple of these guys.

 

[Discoverer]

I definitely think the pitching depth will be a lot better next year. Rowley, Pannonne, SRF, Borucki, even Greene and Rios figure to spend time at AAA. Zeuch/Romano/Perdomo at AA.

However I believe Greene, Rowley, Pannonne, Rios, and Perdomo are all rule 5 eligible so who knows what will happen to a couple of these guys.

I could see Greene being picked up and converted to the pen, and Pannone has a bit of a Biagini feel to him (in that he's been good at AA and is a bit old for his level). I don't imagine the others are at risk.

It's nice that they'll have a handful of real prospects at AAA and AA next year. They're not all the most exciting or high-ceiling guys, but it's a lot more fun than what they've had the last couple years.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

"come to the ball park next year! we have Bichette and Guerrero coming in another year"

fans: "who?? you mean those washed up old guys?? i thought they were retired! no thanks"

majority of baseball fans aren't like the ones on this message board following the prospects daily. Telling fans "we're rebuilding" doesn't really work in baseball like other sports.

I also think it's silly how many people have given up on 2018 already...with some tweaks and better fortune I could see this team contending for the playoffs next year.

Out chere dreamin'.

I think Bo and Vlad have crossed over into the Lansing 3 territory. The mainstream media has picked them up, so they're no longer in 'hardcore' territory. Though I will admit, the super casual individuals will continue to have no clue.

i imagine the agenda will be pushed through the end of the season and in the offseason, with the prevailing idea pushed that the farm system is indeed bare, and they need to capitalize on their MLB assets or "lose them 4eva". Fear based sport talk radio is the best kind of sport talk radio.

 

[phillipmike]

By my math, the Chicago White Sox's farm system benefited most from this year's trade deadline and it isn't particularly close. Chicago added a whopping 25.2 WAR, which is essentially twice as much as many as any other team. This shouldn't come as a surprise, given all of the big-league assets Chicago traded away. Eloy Jimenez accounts for nearly half of their prospect value, with Blake Rutherford, Casey Gillaspie and Dylan Cease also projecting for more than 2.0 WAR while under team control.

The next teams are Oakland and Texas, who got some serious prospect value in exchange for Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish. Detroit also got a decent haul for Justin Wilson, Alex Avila and J.D. Martinez. Toronto quietly added nearly 7 WAR in KATOH's eyes, despite only selling off two unremarkable relievers in Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith. Toronto landed KATOH top-100 prospect Teoscar Hernandez, intriguing lefty Thomas Pannone and low-minors performer Samad Taylor in return.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-all-of-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline/

Still have other pieces that can be moved in August.

 

[canucksfan]

Zeuch, 1.1 innings, 2 hits, 1 BB 1 SO and 1 ER. Not bad for his first time pitching in months.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Definitely being sold short, already have quite a few pieces in place and hopefully we'll see guys like Teoscar and Alford/Pompey step in and succeed.

C - Russ
1B/DH - Smoak/Pearce
2B - Travis (Refsnyder when he gets injured)
3B - JD
SS - Tulo
LF - Teoscar
CF - Pillar
RF - Alford

Doesn't look too much worse than 2016 (obviously it is), especially if Russ repeats this year, and Tulo bounces back to league average. Also would be nice having 2 legitimate aces, Happ, and Marco as your top-4 starters.

Disclaimer: I know little about baseball

1) Hernandez (RF)
2) Donaldson (3B)
3) Smoak (1B)
4) Morales (DH)*
5) Martin (C)
6) Pearce (LF)*
7) Tulowitzki (SS)
8) Travis (2B)
9) Pillar (CF)

OF Smith Jr.
UT Goins*
C McGuire
UT Refsnyder*

1) Stroman (RHP)
2) Sanchez (RHP)
3) Happ (LHP)
4) Estrada (RHP) (1 year deal re-sign)
5) Borucki/Pannone (LHP)*

LR Biagini (RHP)
MR Loup (LHP)*
MR Leone (RHP)
MR Campos (RHP)*
SU Barnes (RHP)
SU Tepera (RHP)
CL Osuna (RHP)

*Competition or spots filled by FA's/Trades/Rule 5/AAA guys.

Besides potentially moving out one or both of Pearce and Morales - replacing them with either a FA or a prospect like Alford - adding a 5th starter maybe and making the bullpen a competition again (there may be some good guys in AAA), there is not really much I think the Jays can really do besides selling off big names and rebuilding. Injuries sucked the life out of the Jays, so I think they'll give next year a shot and if things go wrong, then you will see a more proper rebuild.

Until then, I think the Jays should focus more upon rebuilding the AAA and AA clubs. A lot of those guys were inherited by Shatkins, the team is pretty old (I think AAA is like 28 years old on average and AA like 25 or 26), and both are well below .500 (and have been ever since I've been tracking them if I remember correctly). There is a lot of filler and not a lot of quality. Next year may be a good time to flip that script, especially since the Jays should have a fair number of good upper minors prospects for the first time in a while.

 

[Eyedea]

I could see Greene being picked up and converted to the pen, and Pannone has a bit of a Biagini feel to him (in that he's been good at AA and is a bit old for his level). I don't imagine the others are at risk.

It's nice that they'll have a handful of real prospects at AAA and AA next year. They're not all the most exciting or high-ceiling guys, but it's a lot more fun than what they've had the last couple years.

I don't know, Rios was throwing 95 in the futures game last year with at least an average curve, and he's got solid control, so I could definitely see a team looking to add him to the pen. Same goes for Perdomo who is 1) a lefty and 2) throws mid 90s in short stints. Not that I think those guys will be protected, but I could definitely see them being selected.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I could see Greene being picked up and converted to the pen, and Pannone has a bit of a Biagini feel to him (in that he's been good at AA and is a bit old for his level). I don't imagine the others are at risk.

It's nice that they'll have a handful of real prospects at AAA and AA next year. They're not all the most exciting or high-ceiling guys, but it's a lot more fun than what they've had the last couple years.

Couldn't the Jays potentially put some of them in the bull pen or even the rotation?

 

[Swervin81]

Disclaimer: I know little about baseball

1) Hernandez (RF)
2) Donaldson (3B)
3) Smoak (1B)
4) Morales (DH)*
5) Martin (C)
6) Pearce (LF)*
7) Tulowitzki (SS)
8) Travis (2B)
9) Pillar (CF)

OF Smith Jr.
UT Goins*
C McGuire
UT Refsnyder*

1) Stroman (RHP)
2) Sanchez (RHP)
3) Happ (LHP)
4) Estrada (RHP) (1 year deal re-sign)
5) Borucki/Pannone (LHP)*

LR Biagini (RHP)
MR Loup (LHP)*
MR Leone (RHP)
MR Campos (RHP)*
SU Barnes (RHP)
SU Tepera (RHP)
CL Osuna (RHP)

*Competition or spots filled by FA's/Trades/Rule 5/AAA guys.

Besides potentially moving out one or both of Pearce and Morales - replacing them with either a FA or a prospect like Alford - adding a 5th starter maybe and making the bullpen a competition again (there may be some good guys in AAA), there is not really much I think the Jays can really do besides selling off big names and rebuilding. Injuries sucked the life out of the Jays, so I think they'll give next year a shot and if things go wrong, then you will see a more proper rebuild.

Until then, I think the Jays should focus more upon rebuilding the AAA and AA clubs. A lot of those guys were inherited by Shatkins, the team is pretty old (I think AAA is like 28 years old on average and AA like 25 or 26), and both are well below .500 (and have been ever since I've been tracking them if I remember correctly). There is a lot of filler and not a lot of quality. Next year may be a good time to flip that script, especially since the Jays should have a fair number of good upper minors prospects for the first time in a while.

Framework of a lineup should be, in order:

Best OBP
Best hitter
Power hitter
2nd best hitter
3rd best hitter
Speed
Whatever
Whatever/pitcher
okay OBP

 

[Canada4Gold]

I feel like we really need to add a quality 3rd middle infielder, and it'll be tough to sell on anyone who could find a starters role to come here and play when Travis and Tulo are hurt. Ideally you get someone who can rotate with them, everyone plays 2/3 games, gets the solid 3 guy some starts and gets Travis/Tulo more days off some they can try to stay healthy for longer. Everyone healthy all year everyone gets 108 starts, but when Tulo and/or Travis go down the 3rd guy probably gets much more.

Catcher, 1st, 3rd we're really solid. DH Morales is decent, and Pearce too as a backup to both there and 1st while probably playing OF. Wouldn't mind paying someone half his salary to take Morales this offseason TBH. The outfield is another story, Pillar in center, do you run Teo and Alford 2 rookies in the corners, Pearce perhaps. Zeke or Smith as the bench guy I guess. Who knows if Pompey will ever be healthy again.

I wouldn't be against moving Pillar in a year or 2 once the young guys get more experienced. You can't do it now or next year obviously, but as the season has gone by I've gotten more and more into the feeling that he's a guy you need to sell high on before he hits free agency. He can't hit, and while his defense is great it's going to go sooner or later.

The pen is a pretty big ? but it always is. Osuna, Barnes, Biagini if he's not starting, Tepera, and ?, ?, ? but that's everyone offseason usually. I feel like I'm not going to like our pen next year though.

Starters we've got 3, Could bring Estrada back, could have Biagini start, could bring in someone else. I don't believe we're going to be bad next year. We've got to make a lot of smart moves, but playoffs is certainly a possibility

 

[Del Preston]

Olney is a moron. There isn't one good reason to trade Stroman.

He also said the Jays should trade Osuna just because.

Read this pile of garbage from a couple weeks ago: http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-oln...hould-be-traded-but-wont-move-at-the-deadline

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Disclaimer: I know a little about baseball

1) Travis (2B)
2) Donaldson (3B)
3) Smoak (1B)
4) Morales (DH)*
5) Martin (C)
6) Pearce (LF)*
7) Tulowitzki (SS)
8)
9) Pillar (CF)

OF Smith Jr.
UT Goins*
C McGuire
UT Refsnyder*

1) Stroman (RHP)
2) Sanchez (RHP)
3) Happ (LHP)
4) Estrada (RHP) (1 year deal re-sign)
5) Borucki/Pannone (LHP)*

LR Biagini (RHP)
MR Loup (LHP)*
MR Leone (RHP)
MR Campos (RHP)*
SU Barnes (RHP)
SU Tepera (RHP)
CL Osuna (RHP)

*Competition or spots filled by FA's/Trades/Rule 5/AAA guys.

Besides potentially moving out one or both of Pearce and Morales - replacing them with either a FA or a prospect like Alford - adding a 5th starter maybe and making the bullpen a competition again (there may be some good guys in AAA), there is not really much I think the Jays can really do besides selling off big names and rebuilding. Injuries sucked the life out of the Jays, so I think they'll give next year a shot and if things go wrong, then you will see a more proper rebuild.

Until then, I think the Jays should focus more upon rebuilding the AAA and AA clubs. A lot of those guys were inherited by Shatkins, the team is pretty old (I think AAA is like 28 years old on average and AA like 25 or 26), and both are well below .500 (and have been ever since I've been tracking them if I remember correctly). There is a lot of filler and not a lot of quality. Next year may be a good time to flip that script, especially since the Jays should have a fair number of good upper minors prospects for the first time in a while.

Fixed it for you.

As for the Bisons and the Fishercats, they don't require rebuilding. They will be predominantly prospects and/or older borderline prospects.

AAA: (Rios)
C) Jansen
1b) Rowdy
2b) Lopes
3b) Leblebijian
SS) Gurriel Jr.
LF) Smith Jr. (not on your mlb roster unless he's getting at least platoon AB's)
CF) Alford
RF) Hernandez (starts 2018 in Buffalo, Pompey in his spot on the MLB roster)
Bench\Platoon: Fields

AA: (SRF/Borucki/Greene/Zeuch/Romano/Harris - with any graduations occurring where the pitcher goes straight to the MLB)
C) Max Power
1b) Kelly
2b) Urena (moved over for Bo)
3b) Vlad Jr.
SS) Bo
LF) Thomas
CF) J. Davis (Jonathan)
RF) Panas
Bench\Platoon: Biggio, Loveless

2019 MLB roster sees: Full year from Alford, Hernandez, Smith Jr., Gurriel Jr.; Half year from Bo, Vlad, SRF, Borucki. That's my guess.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Fixed it for you.

As for the Bisons and the Fishercats, they don't require rebuilding. They will be predominantly prospects and/or older borderline prospects.

AAA: (Rios)
C) Jansen
1b) Rowdy
2b) Lopes
3b) Leblebijian
SS) Gurriel Jr.
LF) Smith Jr. (not on your mlb roster unless he's getting at least platoon AB's)
CF) Alford
RF) Hernandez (starts 2018 in Buffalo, Pompey in his spot on the MLB roster)
Bench\Platoon: Fields

AA: (SRF/Borucki/Greene/Zeuch/Romano/Harris - with any graduations occurring where the pitcher goes straight to the MLB)
C) Max Power
1b) Kelly
2b) Urena (moved over for Bo)
3b) Vlad Jr.
SS) Bo
LF) Thomas
CF) J. Davis (Jonathan)
RF) Panas
Bench\Platoon: Biggio, Loveless

2019 MLB roster sees: Full year from Alford, Hernandez, Smith Jr., Gurriel Jr.; Half year from Bo, Vlad, SRF, Borucki. That's my guess.

Lane Thomas was dealt for International money, so you'd have a hole in AA LF but that should not be hard to fill. There are a few good guys who could slot in the outfield and it's probably the one area they do not need to worry about even if a bunch of guys moved.

Pretty much what I had for AAA (I didn't think of a AA lineup but rather who would be there somewhat). Only differences I really had:

-Pompey was LF, Fields CF, Alford RF with J. Davis as the 4th OF. Smith Jr. and Hernandez were in the MLB for me.
-Urena and Gurriel Jr. swapped AAA and AA.
-I had more prospect pitchers in AAA, and Rios oddly was not one of them. However the Jays have some older guys (Dermody, Girodo, Smith, Bolsinger, Campos, etc.) who may be worth keeping for depth for the MLB, so as long as there are not too many other older guys besides them, I would be happy.

This is pretty much what I was getting at. If they are not on that list, and do not have a bench/depth role, then sell them or release the rest.

 

[theaub]

I wouldn't be against moving Pillar in a year or 2 once the young guys get more experienced. You can't do it now or next year obviously, but as the season has gone by I've gotten more and more into the feeling that he's a guy you need to sell high on before he hits free agency. He can't hit, and while his defense is great it's going to go sooner or later.

I'd trade Pillar in the offseason for sure. Run with Alford in CF, Hernandez in RF, get a good LF and have Pompey as the 4th OF/permanent DL guy.

The issue is that you're pretty much locked in everywhere else around the diamond. Does a lineup that looks something like

C - Martin
1B - Smoak
2B - Travis
SS - Tulo
3B - Donaldson
LF - ??? (Justin Upton?)
CF - Alford
RF - Hernandez
DH - Pearce/Morales (preferably launch Morales into the sun)

...does that compete? I don't really think it does without some awesome pitching. Not to mention that there's a lot of injury risk there.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'd trade Pillar in the offseason for sure. Run with Alford in CF, Hernandez in RF, get a good LF and have Pompey as the 4th OF/permanent DL guy.

The issue is that you're pretty much locked in everywhere else around the diamond. Does a lineup that looks something like

C - Martin
1B - Smoak
2B - Travis
SS - Tulo
3B - Donaldson
LF - ??? (Justin Upton?)
CF - Alford
RF - Hernandez
DH - Pearce/Morales (preferably launch Morales into the sun)

...does that compete? I don't really think it does without some awesome pitching. Not to mention that there's a lot of injury risk there.

Injuries are the big one. If they stay healthy, I think these guys play to their abilities. But if Travis, Tulo and Donaldson miss significant time and then stumble because they can not get any consistency in their play as a result, then it's not. Of course Hernandez and Alford can not be hot garbage either, but you would hope that at the very least they can provide good defense and half decent offense.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Lane Thomas was dealt for International money, so you'd have a hole in AA LF but that should not be hard to fill. There are a few good guys who could slot in the outfield and it's probably the one area they do not need to worry about even if a bunch of guys moved.

Pretty much what I had for AAA (I didn't think of a AA lineup but rather who would be there somewhat). Only differences I really had:

-Pompey was LF, Fields CF, Alford RF with J. Davis as the 4th OF. Smith Jr. and Hernandez were in the MLB for me.
-Urena and Gurriel Jr. swapped AAA and AA.
-I had more prospect pitchers in AAA, and Rios oddly was not one of them. However the Jays have some older guys (Dermody, Girodo, Smith, Bolsinger, Campos, etc.) who may be worth keeping for depth for the MLB, so as long as there are not too many other older guys besides them, I would be happy.

This is pretty much what I was getting at. If they are not on that list, and do not have a bench/depth role, then sell them or release the rest.

Not Lane, Jake.

And the MLB teams tend to let there true prospect starters cut their teeth at Double-A and make the jump from there (I believe the Jays most important pitching roving instructor operates out of NH). Triple-A is reserved for slightly lower ceiling types, like Rios and Pannone, who will likely be the key guys in that rotation, coupled with burn out quad A guys.

Urena will repeat Double-A. And if Pompey is healthy, he'll be in the MLB prior to Alford/Smith/Hernandez.

Huge caveat, of course, these are the lineups I'd start the season with. Eventually, my 2018 MLB roster features a young athletic outfield (Some combo of Pompey/Smith/Alford/Hernandez/Fields), and any pitcher that shows they're ready, with any incumbent being traded.