Blue Jays Discussion: Steve Pearce: comeback machine

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phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Agreed. But its not like it was all pitching all the time they did draft position players - they just were pretty bad at it or they just didnt sign them.

2010: 22 out 55 players drafted were position players (3 out of the first 10 picks) 15 PP players signed vs 20 pitchers signed
2011: 23 out of 55 (2 out of 10) 17 PP signed vs 18 pitchers
2012: 26 out 44 (4 out of 10) 21 PP signed vs 13 pitchers
2013: 18 out 40 (1 out of 10) 14 PP signed vs 15 pitchers
2014: 18 out 41 (5 out of 10) 12 PP signed vs 17 pitchers
2015: 21 out 40 (4 out of 10) 20 PP signed vs 13 pitchers

128 Position players drafted
147 Pitchers drafted


Drafted is interesting to look at but how many they signed matters.

99 Position player signed
96 Pitchers signed


So the focus was on pitchers early on as AA stated but outside of 2013 there was good balance. I also have to keep in mind that that 2012-2015 probably had a lot to do with how their draft board fell.

But over AA's tenure he drafted more pitchers but signed more position players.

So they didnt ignore position player just bad drafting and/or developing position players.

In case anyone was wondering;

I added Shapiro's draft to offer his approach in comparison

Position Player Difference in the Jays drafts from 2010 -2017
2010: 22 out 55 players drafted were position players (3 out of the first 10 picks) 15 PP players signed vs 20 pitchers signed
2011: 23 out of 55 (2 out of 10) 17 PP signed vs 18 pitchers
2012: 26 out 44 (4 out of 10) 21 PP signed vs 13 pitchers
2013: 18 out 40 (1 out of 10) 14 PP signed vs 15 pitchers
2014: 18 out 41 (5 out of 10) 12 PP signed vs 17 pitchers
2015: 21 out 40 (4 out of 10) 20 PP signed vs 13 pitchers
Total AA: PPD: 128 - PD: 147 >>> PPS: 99 round PS: 96

2016: 16 out 40 (5 out of 10) 11 PP signed vs 17 pitchers
2017: 19 out 41 (7 out of 10) 14 PP signed vs 17 pitchers
Total Shapiro: PPD: 35 - PD: 46 >>> PPS: 25 PS: 34

Average Round Position in the Jays drafts from 2010 -2017:
2010: PP Drafted: 27 round - P Drafted: 23 round >>> PP Signed: 24 round P Signed: 17
2011: PPD: 27 round - PD: 22 round >>> PPS: 26 round PS: 24
2012: PPD: 21 round - PD: 17 round >>> PPS: 19 round PS: 13
2013: PPD: 24 round - PD: 17 round >>> PPS: 20 round PS: 14
2014: PPD: 20 round - PD: 20 round >>> PPS: 18 round PS: 20
2015: PPD: 23 round - PD: 18 round >>> PPS: 23 round PS: 14
Average AA: PPD: 24 round - PD: 20 round >>> PPS: 22 round PS: 17

2016: PPD: 20 round - PD: 20 round >>> PPS: 18 round PS: 20
2017: PPD: 17 round - PD: 29 round >>> PPS: 14 round PS: 22
Average Shapiro: PPD: 19 round - PD: 25 round >>> PPS: 16 round PS: 21

I dont have time to break this down further but here are some notes.

Shapiro and AA's regime seem to draft more pitchers than position players. AA had a more balanced approach with signing his draftees. Whereas so far Shapiro has signed more pitchers.

However, this is the key difference. AA's regime used much higher picks on pitchers and looked like he signed more of his higher drafted pitchers. Whereas Shapiro's regime had a more balanced 2016 and then his 2017 draft showed that he used higher picks on position players by a large margin but the funny thing is they once again signed more pitchers than position players.

In otherwords i did all this work to show you very little pattern. Though i think we can come away with the idea that AA's regime either had an emphasis on pitchers (pick them or setting their draft board). Early in Shapiro's regime it appears he might have a high emphasis on position players.

Probably speaks to when they took over. When AA took over they needed pitching in the worst of ways and its the other way around for Shapiro as AA dealt 12 pitchers at the deadline.

I would have done this by average overall pick vs average round but my excel sheet was being difficult.
 

TheTotalPackage

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Sep 14, 2006
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Wasn't AA's philosophy to draft as many quality pitchers as possible because they were the best kind of currency in trades? Every team wants to get their hands on pitchers, and it's easier to trade them for positional players than the other way around.
 

The Nemesis

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Apr 11, 2005
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Wasn't AA's philosophy to draft as many quality pitchers as possible because they were the best kind of currency in trades? Every team wants to get their hands on pitchers, and it's easier to trade them for positional players than the other way around.

It was. It was also noted that the attrition rate on pitching prospects is generally believed to be much much higher than position players (I strongly suspect that this belief is accurate, but I don't want to make that kind of statement without proof), so if you want a stable of prospects to trade you're gonna need to start with a larger pool of candidates so that by the time you get to the point of trading them you still have some left with value who haven't imploded or wrecked their arms or whatnot.
 

canucksfan

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Thought I would do this if anyone is interested.

Trade deadline is coming up. Predictions on who from the Jays will be traded.

I think Estrada and Smith will be the only players traded. Estrada will go to the Brewers. Smith will go to Minnesota.
 

SeaOfBlue

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Aug 1, 2013
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Thought I would do this if anyone is interested.

Trade deadline is coming up. Predictions on who from the Jays will be traded.

I think Estrada and Smith will be the only players traded. Estrada will go to the Brewers. Smith will go to Minnesota.

I see Bautista getting moved as well, plus more guys if we retain money like the Padres did with Upton last year.

Maybe a few other minor pieces. If they aren't important and bring back something decent, there really is no reason to keep any one on this roster. Next year, you are probably starting to replace them internally or through Free Agency anyways.
 

hoc123

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Feb 23, 2014
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Thought I would do this if anyone is interested.

Trade deadline is coming up. Predictions on who from the Jays will be traded.

I think Estrada and Smith will be the only players traded. Estrada will go to the Brewers. Smith will go to Minnesota.

I'll say Estrada is traded to the Royals, Smith is traded to the Brewers, and the Jays trade for Dee Gordan for a prospect with with minimal value "think a prospect like Zach Jackson.
 

Leafin

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Apr 2, 2009
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Would've been nice if a few of our starters didn't completely implode closer to the deadline.

I think we trade Estrada for a marginal prospect at this point. Smith is likely gone.

I'd be shocked if Bautista is traded. I think it should be done as i find he's gotten a bit stale here. Maybe a new team will rejuvenate him a bit heading to the playoffs. Cleveland?

If we aren't resigning Donaldson i'd move him too. Though i think they keep him until next deadline to keep the appearance that they are "competing". I hope it doesn't backfire and we lose him for nothing(if he were to get injured next season).
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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Would've been nice if a few of our starters didn't completely implode closer to the deadline.

I think we trade Estrada for a marginal prospect at this point. Smith is likely gone.

I'd be shocked if Bautista is traded. I think it should be done as i find he's gotten a bit stale here. Maybe a new team will rejuvenate him a bit heading to the playoffs. Cleveland?

If we aren't resigning Donaldson i'd move him too. Though i think they keep him until next deadline to keep the appearance that they are "competing". I hope it doesn't backfire and we lose him for nothing(if he were to get injured next season).

Seems like a sound strategy to me.
 

Leafin

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Apr 2, 2009
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Seems like a sound strategy to me.

Donaldson is a stud. Do we resign him and hope he can continue his near MVP level play? Or are these small injuries going to take a further toll on his ability?

Tough call.

It doesn't seem to be in Shatkins MO to resign an aging star player to long term money. With an upcoming $250+ renovation coming to the Dome you got to feel Shatkins want to stay competitive to recoup some of that money.

On the opposite end they rebuild and lower the payroll for a few seasons to offset that reno cost.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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Donaldson is a stud. Do we resign him and hope he can continue his near MVP level play? Or are these small injuries going to take a further toll on his ability?

Tough call.

It doesn't seem to be in Shatkins MO to resign an aging star player to long term money. With an upcoming $250+ renovation coming to the Dome you got to feel Shatkins want to stay competitive to recoup some of that money.

On the opposite end they rebuild and lower the payroll for a few seasons to offset that reno cost.

Depends what you can get for him.

Has literally nothing to do with "pretending to compete" or stadium renovations though. Much more with supply and demand, and the current market for third basemen.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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Oh I assumed he was talking about Estrada.

I think he's speaking generally. It also hinges on what one considers "scraps".

As an example, I consider Harold Ramirez a "scrap". Dawel Lugo, despite what some would have you think, is a borderline "scrap".

I understand getting something for a pending free agent, but there's no point in simply grabbing filler. That's, of course, if you don't simply re-sign Marco.
 

hoc123

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Feb 23, 2014
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I think he's speaking generally. It also hinges on what one considers "scraps".

As an example, I consider Harold Ramirez a "scrap". Dawel Lugo, despite what some would have you think, is a borderline "scrap".

I understand getting something for a pending free agent, but there's no point in simply grabbing filler. That's, of course, if you don't simply re-sign Marco.

Players who are "scraps" can progress to a point where they become good players. Corey Kluber was at one point a "scrap" used in a trade. Even the Diamondbacks were able to get one of the best rentals because they got a "scrap" for Cliff Pennington. Now obviously most of the time they won't become even a good prospect much less a good player, but it's better having a small chance then no chance at all. The only reasons you would want to keep Estrada should be if you A) believe the Jays have a decent chance at making the playoffs, or B) You want to make sure he returns next year as a Jay so you sign him to an extension right now. If you don't believe either of these things you might as well trade him. Unless the team you trade him to re-signs him before free agency you have just as just as good a chance of signing him if you trade him as if you kept him for the rest of the year.
 

Leafin

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Apr 2, 2009
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Depends what you can get for him.

Has literally nothing to do with "pretending to compete" or stadium renovations though. Much more with supply and demand, and the current market for third basemen.

Depends on if we want to resign him. If not then you auction him off to the highest bidder. As a seller you take the most you can get in that scenario before you're left with nothing(Donaldson leaving as FA).

I think there is definitely a want for a guy like Donaldson. I just hope we don't make a Halladay trade where we end up with a collection of prospects that never worked out.
 

trellaine201

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Feb 10, 2010
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Thought I would do this if anyone is interested.

Trade deadline is coming up. Predictions on who from the Jays will be traded.

I think Estrada and Smith will be the only players traded. Estrada will go to the Brewers. Smith will go to Minnesota.

Very little in my opinion. Haven't seen the Jays in any trade talk. At least from reliable sources. It's all good . They can retool in winter
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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Players who are "scraps" can progress to a point where they become good players. Corey Kluber was at one point a "scrap" used in a trade. Even the Diamondbacks were able to get one of the best rentals because they got a "scrap" for Cliff Pennington. Now obviously most of the time they won't become even a good prospect much less a good player, but it's better having a small chance then no chance at all. The only reasons you would want to keep Estrada should be if you A) believe the Jays have a decent chance at making the playoffs, or B) You want to make sure he returns next year as a Jay so you sign him to an extension right now. If you don't believe either of these things you might as well trade him. Unless the team you trade him to re-signs him before free agency you have just as just as good a chance of signing him if you trade him as if you kept him for the rest of the year.

To a certain degree sure. But there needs to be something there, usually that manifests itself after a tweak here or there.

Kluber, as an example, would not be traded in such a trade in 2017. What clubs know now about advanced statistics. I would argue, even then, the Indians knew what they were doing (don't shoot me, Shapiro haters) and identified Kluber for that trade. The Padres may have thought he was a scrap, but the Indians did not.

If a 24 year old in Double-A with a 2.94 FIP and a 95 mph cutter was traded to the Jays in the Estrada deal, I would not consider that a "scrap".
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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Depends on if we want to resign him. If not then you auction him off to the highest bidder. As a seller you take the most you can get in that scenario before you're left with nothing(Donaldson leaving as FA).

I think there is definitely a want for a guy like Donaldson. I just hope we don't make a Halladay trade where we end up with a collection of prospects that never worked out.

Its hard to quantify just how high the likelihood of that happening is.
 

hockeywiz542

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May 26, 2008
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toronto blue jays

- it would be difficult for the jays to trade their stars while the team remains so popular again in toronto (they are again among league leaders in attendance). and gm ross atkins said to the toronto papers that a complete rebuild wasn’t in the cards.

- sources say that at some points in the past the jays have tried for rougned odor, though it’s possible those efforts came before the famous punch-out incident of blue jays icon jose bautista. Anyway, the jays are in the market for a second baseman now, so it would be interesting to see if they’d try to revisit that at some point. it isn’t certain when all the inquiries were made, and odor isn’t the most popular fellow in toronto now. but as one jays connected person pointed out, “bautista’s probably a short timer there.†one interesting connection: Jays president mark shapiro employed rougned’s uncle rouglas odor with the indians for two decades so there is a connection there (rouglas was a player for seven years in the indians system, then a coach/manager for another 14). So there’s a link there. And while rougned is beloved by rangers people, one might wonder how he’d do in a jays clubhouse that included bautista (and still does).

- bautista could hit the block, but as many point out he has 10-and-5 right. And he loves toronto.

- there seems to be a lot of concern about whether devon travis can stay healthy, so they are looking at second baseman again. Dee gordon is a consideration, as was mentioned here first.
 

hoc123

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Feb 23, 2014
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Very little in my opinion. Haven't seen the Jays in any trade talk. At least from reliable sources. It's all good . They can retool in winter

This is a pretty good place to check for all the deadline rumors

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/7/18/15989724/2017-mlb-trade-deadline-rumor-tracker

Pretty much the Royals have been interested in Estrada, and the Jays wanted a major league player as part of a deal with the Cubs for Marcus Stroman "actually didn't see this one until now".
 

ryno23

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Feb 5, 2010
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I was reading somewhere can't remember who but will post the link once I find it. The Indians were in the running for JD Martinez looking to add another bat to their lineup.

Maybe Atkins can talk to their former team about Jose. I am sure EE would put a good word in and Jose would probably waive his 10-5 rights, Atkins and Shapiro know the Indians farm system as they drafted most of those players. They might be able to score a decent return of lower level prospects who can turn into solid players at the big league level.

They won't get a top prospects for Jose but might be able to find a decent one
 
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