Speculation: Starting 2013-14 Roster (Want the Fan's eye view/hope/goal))

[Bubba Thudd]

I'm curious to know why you feel Paul Stastny, who would be coming up to unrestricted free agency for the first time, would be more likely to take a $2m+ paycut AAV in your scenario than O'Reilly to sign long-term in the $5m AAV range.

If this free agency has shown anything, it is that teams will overpay for guys they feel can scrape by in certain roles. A guy who is barely a top 4 defenseman will be paid like a very good #2/#3. A second line center will be paid like a good first line center. If we feel Staz is still a first line center with the right situation(see USA in World Championships), then I have no reason to believe he would come down that far.

Stastny, as a UFA over these past 24 hours or whatever, would have gotten $7m AAV or something silly. No doubt in my mind.

I think we could move Stastny, along with a draft pick(2014 1st or 2nd depending on the player) and maybe an Elliott or something, for a damn good defenseman. That would also shed us of Paul's $6.6m salary and allow us to allocate that for extensions elsewhere.

Just my two cents. I'll be awaiting the comments by people saying I am simply biased against Staz.

Why U hate Staz so much?

Seriously, though, I don't think he'll sign with us for anything less than 6M. It would be nice if he signed for 5-5.5, but I don't expect it. He'll get 7M in the UFA market next year, as long as he doesn't have an atrocious year.

I still say the best bet is to sign him, and trade him. Add the 2014 first round pick, and maybe McGinn to get a top-pairing D. I don't want to trade Elliott yet -- I'd rather him play in LEM, getting top-pairing minutes with Siemens.

I would like to get Hainsey -- or some upgrade on D -- in the meantime, on a short term contract. We rush our D prospects into the NHL, and they lose confidence. And then the fans lose confidence in them.

Add Hainsey, trade an extended Staz + 2014 first round pick, and McGinn (or Sgarbossa, if he'll get the deal done) for a top-pairing D. Then if we need to look for a 3rd line C, it shouldn't be too terribly hard to find.

I don't think ROR will be content on the 3rd line -- he's shown he's better than that. I hope he'll be content -- and prosper -- on the Wing, but time will tell. If not, we'll likely have to trade him at the deadline. I'd expect picks/prospects, though, cuz we'd be trading him to a contender who won't want to give up a good defender going into a playoff run.

 

[Averick*]

They may not actively shop Staz but if teams are making offers for him during the season, or even now, they'll obviously listen and do what makes sense. But right now there are other moving pieces. Roy has laid out his vision and it likely includes players in the organization, not with other franchises. They'd like to allow him an opportunity to be successful. A team might come knocking with a deal that they can't pass on but with FA going on, it's not like it will happen at this point--not until teams see if they can add someone through FA.

 

[AslanRH]

So from what I understand, the most common themes on the board is
1) We want a top pairing Defenseman
----We do not have the player for that role next to EJ on our team.
----We dont want to give up too many of our young assets of value
----We don't want to overpay via FA signing
----We cant offersheet because we have RFAs coming up and it will ruin our chances of reasonably signing them or revenge sheets will be a coming.
2) our offensive players will improve with the new coaching staff but our defense will be just the same if not worse than last year.
3) we have cap issues to worry about in 2014-2015

The way I see it in 2014-2015

FORWARDS
Ryan O'Reilly ($6.000m) / Matt Duchene ($7.000m) / P-A Parenteau ($4.000m)
Alex Tanguay ($3.500m) / Paul Stastny ($6.000m) / Gabriel Landeskog ($5.000m)
____________ / Nate MacKinnon ($3.775m) / ____________
Cody McLeod ($1.150m) / Brad Malone ($0.900m) / Patrick Bordeleau ($1.000m)
___________ / _____________
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Wilson ($2.250m) / Erik Johnson ($3.750m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Tyson Barrie (2.250m)
Duncan Siemens (1.388m) / Stefan Elliott (1.750m)
____________
GOALTENDERS
Semyon Varlamov (4.000m)
Calvin Pickard (.870m)
OTHER
Buyout: Greg Zanon ($0.750m)

As it stands above, the roster is @ roughly 57M +/- (depending on actual contracts that are resigned) and 5 open roster spots. I figure at least 3 of the forward spots and the #7 defenseman can be filled from our system (@ an avg <1m per player).

that would still leave around 7.25-7.5m to put towards the top pairing defensman (5m +2.25 of Wilson's contract since he'd likely get traded) if that is the direction Sakic/Roy choose to go and if the cap only increases to 68m. [does not account for bonus cushion either]

players not accounted for who may come back, and their potential replacements in our system:
McGinn (RFA) (Sgarbossa/Hishon)
Downie (UFA)
Benoit (UFA) (Brigas/Beaupre/Laurdisen)

I will admit that I see Wilson being a suitable partner for EJ for the time being if he can stay healthy, but I do not think he is ideal for that role, but have hopes he can still develop as he is only 26. I only put him there due to still being under contract and not wanting him as the #7.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Interesting analysis Aslan, here's my quips. Landeskog will be closer to 3.5-4, but Varly around 4.5-5 imo. I also expect the cap to jump back to around 70mil.

Ship out Wilson + McGinn + Whatever towards a #2/3 defender, re-sign Downie around 4mil per and we'll be fine as far as the cap is concerned.

 

[droughs]

I just don't see Duchene making 1.5M more then Tavares.

 

[Boulder Avalanche]

Tavres took a heavy discount. Look at the deal Giroux just got. Duchene would most likely take a discount through since he would be playing for the Avs. Something like this is what I would want. 6 years x 6.5 million

 

[Averick*]

Tavres took a heavy discount. Look at the deal Giroux just got. Duchene would most likely take a discount through since he would be playing for the Avs. Something like this is what I would want. 6 years x 6.5 million

It will likely depend on the cap increase though.

 

[Averick*]

I just don't see Duchene making 1.5M more then Tavares.

If the cap goes up to 80 m like it has been speculated, it could. 60 to 80 is a 33% increase...roughly. The cap is actually mid 60s now.

 

[droughs]

If the cap goes up to 80 m like it has been speculated, it could. 60 to 80 is a 33% increase...roughly. The cap is actually mid 60s now.

I see duchene getting signed before the season even starts or mid point.

 

[Tralfamadore]

The Sens had a prospects development camp today here in Ottawa. Are the Avs doing anything like that soon?

 

[AslanRH]

Interesting analysis Aslan, here's my quips. Landeskog will be closer to 3.5-4, but Varly around 4.5-5 imo. I also expect the cap to jump back to around 70mil.

Ship out Wilson + McGinn + Whatever towards a #2/3 defender, re-sign Downie around 4mil per and we'll be fine as far as the cap is concerned.

I'll wait to see what Downie can do this year. I personally fear he'll be perpetually hurt with his style of play, somewhat like Wilson.

Contract wise, I actually figured Varly + Lando would be around 9M.
-I think the Avs may try and buy up some UFA years with Landeskog on his next deal and overpay a bit figuring on the back half of his deal he'll be at a bargain price so I bumped him.
-Varly will need to show he can consistently be a goalie the team can rely on even when they struggle. Looking at who our new coach is, I think if Varly can't be seen as a goalie who can steal 10or so games a year when the defense lets him down, he wont be offered a raise that large.

 

[Mr Serious]

The Sens had a prospects development camp today here in Ottawa. Are the Avs doing anything like that soon?

The prospects will be in Denver, I believe in the coming weeks, but everything will be off-ice and closed to the public.

 

[shadow1]

Hoping Roy gives Erik Johnson a good look in 2013-2014. The Avs will have to rely on him in a big way next season.

Jan Hejda and Tyson Barrie will log big minutes too, but this is Johnson's chance to show the Avs he can be the go to guy on defense.