Staples Breaks Down Why Leon + Lucic Doesn't Work

[Drivesaitl]

In my view the issues with Lucic are 80% mental and 20% physical.



Somewhat personal... but he had some very tragic family issues in the not too distant past and that takes time to get through mentally as well. When you lose a family member, it's not as simple as just flipping a switch and getting on with life and everything is 100% mentally again. Without getting into too much psychology, I think that obviously may have an effect on a person's focus and drive as well... and only time can help a person get through that healing process which takes a toll on everyone differently. Obviously "tough" people feel things just as hard or harder than anyone else and even though hockey players are professionals... they are obviously human as well and what affects them off the ice often affects their performance on it as well.

I wonder how this will effect Larsson this season as well. He's a classic "his fathers boy" who was very close and his hockey career was tied in to his dad. Something becomes missing when you like to make your father proud and then one day your father is gone.

Agreed with all of your post.

Good place for this article on how physical players age. Basically just confirming what everyone already thought/saw, physical players go down hill much faster than less physical players

Big Deals for Big Hitters: How Physical Players Age

Based on his 2 seasons here, and the 2 season before he came here, Lucic isnt bouncing back. Hes off the cliff and falling fast. The only thing that will make this better is if he somehow finds a parachute and reduces his rate of decline. Hes a 3rd liner now, hopefully he can stay a suitable third liner for the next 2-3 years before his game is completely gone

I've been talking about this effect since we attained Lucic. Its not a new thought, its often been theorized that physical players that take on a lot of toll on their body age quicker in terms of pro play. Good to see some substantiation for this but in the study they should have looked at production declining as well as games played. In anycase it seems clear that NHL teams should be less inclined to give heavy hitters huge golden years handshakes. This was always going to be a risk with Lucic. The term was NEVER good for the Oilers.

 

[Aceboogie]

I've been talking about this effect since we attained Lucic. Its not a new thought, its often been theorized that physical players that take on a lot of toll on their body age quicker in terms of pro play. Good to see some substantiation for this but in the study they should have looked at production declining as well as games played. In anycase it seems clear that NHL teams should be less inclined to give heavy hitters huge golden years handshakes. This was always going to be a risk with Lucic. The term was NEVER good for the Oilers.

There has been production analysis too and showed, basically every metric used (Points, Goals, Goals above replacement) showed the decline starting at 25 and decreasing pretty hard at age 28-30. Again, that is nothing new and many people have discussed before, I guess this just confirms that with additional back up. Although its weird that GMs still give away big contracts to 28+ YO powerfowards. Summer 2015 will go down as the weirdest offseason ever in this regard because mutliple lengthy contracts were handed out to PWFs/older forwards (Ladd, Lucic, Backes, Okposo, Eriksson, Brouwer). Something went terribly wrong with the judgement of multiple GMs this offseason, maybe it was herd mentality or something to explain why so many went irrational

As an aside, my other thinking is that the UFA age of 28 is outdated for todays NHL. The UFA age of 28 and RFA regime made sense in the 80s and 90s when players developed at older ages and didnt hit their full potential till 28. But in todays game, players aged 20-25 are contributing the majority of production to a team. Yet they are often "underpaid" (IE would get more on the open market and dont get paid as much as an older player does for the same production) because they are RFAs. Its really disjointed that players aged 28 and over get massive paydays when they come to UFA status, because it is almost always the case teams are paying for past play and not future performance

 

[Drivesaitl]

There has been production analysis too and showed, basically every metric used (Points, Goals, Goals above replacement) showed the decline starting at 25 and decreasing pretty hard at age 28-30. Again, that is nothing new and many people have discussed before, I guess this just confirms that with additional back up. Although its weird that GMs still give away big contracts to 28+ YO powerfowards. Summer 2015 will go down as the weirdest offseason ever in this regard because mutliple lengthy contracts were handed out to PWFs/older forwards (Ladd, Lucic, Backes, Okposo, Eriksson, Brouwer). Something went terribly wrong with the judgement of multiple GMs this offseason, maybe it was herd mentality or something to explain why so many went irrational

As an aside, my other thinking is that the UFA age of 28 is outdated for todays NHL. The UFA age of 28 and RFA regime made sense in the 80s and 90s when players developed at older ages and didnt hit their full potential till 28. But in todays game, players aged 20-25 are contributing the majority of production to a team. Yet they are often "underpaid" (IE would get more on the open market and dont get paid as much as an older player does for the same production) because they are RFAs. Its really disjointed that players aged 28 and over get massive paydays when they come to UFA status, because it is almost always the case teams are paying for past play and not future performance

I know that there is general age related metric that has been studied. I've quoted those studies for years. I know when the general drop off in production occurs. What I meant was having it done specifically for heavy hitters as they age. See what their production was like as they age. See if they are even MORE impacted by aging as many have theorized.

I agree with you however that many GM's often go wrong with judgement. Its weird, its like they just think its a comfort zone to sign up a known player, even assuming that known will not deviate in what they are able to produce. These are usually groaner contracts to me.

In fairness though NHL play making a move to more of a speed youth direction has exacerbated the decline of older turtles. I see Lucic glancing at the speed of the game today and it seems like mentally he's sometimes just waving a white flag.

One of the things that rarely got listened to when this contract was signed was that Hall and Lucic were not close to the same age. So that any gap between the two in production terms was only going to increase dramatically through Lucic contract. Which is why Chia's assertion about Lucic replacing Hall production was always a harmful distortion.

 

[Aceboogie]

theorized.

I agree with you however that many GM's often go wrong with judgement. Its weird, its like they just think its a comfort zone to sign up a known player, even assuming that known will not deviate in what they are able to produce. These are usually groaner contracts to me.

I think alot of it has to do with the fact that GMs have significant incentives for short term planning and less for long term considerations. If you sign a big name UFA like Lucic/Ladd/Backes etc, you win in the short run because you get a player with whom your fanbase wants. So you have better short term job security in that outcome. I dont think alot of GMs plan long term (longer than 5-7 years) because the average lifespan of an NHL GM is probably that 5-7 year mark. Signing a big name UFA is a great short term fix, even though it can have big implications on the long term outcome of the team. So Chiarelli can get the glory of the Lucic signing, then when Lucic goes to ****, hell be long gone

GMs who have long term tenures often dont make these moves because theyve bene around for a long time and know theyll be around in the future to deal with the outcomes of their decisions. To me its why a guy like Poille rarely dips into the UFA market