The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Hi guys -
I've been following hockey's new stats for years and years, and reading all of the research behind it, too. People like Gabriel Desjardins and Eric Tulsky are very bright guys, and they've published tons and tons of analysis which shows why this type of analysis has predictive value. I've had the benefit of being able to ask them questions and breakdown their work on my own and I firmly believe they're onto something with much of it.
It goes beyond simply possession statistics. It's not a matter of not believing the Leafs were "such a good team" - it's more that some of their success was very likely unsustainable given those areas tend to regress over a full 82-game season.
Last season the Leafs were on pace for 97 points over a full year; my prediction has them at 89 and just outside of the postseason. That difference is directly related to their extremely high shooting percentage, poor possession, etc. and the tendency of teams that have won that way in the past to be unable to sustain that.
I don't think that eight-point difference is that significant a decline; other analytics guys are predicting the Leafs to be one of the worst teams in the NHL, which is far too extreme given they should improve in some areas, like on the blueline.
As always with sports, not everything is predictable - the Leafs could always surprise again.
Where do you have Ottawa? I would assume based on Anderson's insane save percentage near the bottom?
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