TSN: Standings projection: Leafs ranked 4th in Atlantic

[The Apologist]

Hi guys -

I've been following hockey's new stats for years and years, and reading all of the research behind it, too. People like Gabriel Desjardins and Eric Tulsky are very bright guys, and they've published tons and tons of analysis which shows why this type of analysis has predictive value. I've had the benefit of being able to ask them questions and breakdown their work on my own and I firmly believe they're onto something with much of it.

It goes beyond simply possession statistics. It's not a matter of not believing the Leafs were "such a good team" - it's more that some of their success was very likely unsustainable given those areas tend to regress over a full 82-game season.

Last season the Leafs were on pace for 97 points over a full year; my prediction has them at 89 and just outside of the postseason. That difference is directly related to their extremely high shooting percentage, poor possession, etc. and the tendency of teams that have won that way in the past to be unable to sustain that.

I don't think that eight-point difference is that significant a decline; other analytics guys are predicting the Leafs to be one of the worst teams in the NHL, which is far too extreme given they should improve in some areas, like on the blueline.

As always with sports, not everything is predictable - the Leafs could always surprise again.

Where do you have Ottawa? I would assume based on Anderson's insane save percentage near the bottom?

 

[Garbs]

Why do people treat hockey like baseball?

 

[Gobias Industries]

Why do people treat hockey like baseball?

Hear, hear...

 

[Duffman955]

Hi guys -

I've been following hockey's new stats for years and years, and reading all of the research behind it, too. People like Gabriel Desjardins and Eric Tulsky are very bright guys, and they've published tons and tons of analysis which shows why this type of analysis has predictive value. I've had the benefit of being able to ask them questions and breakdown their work on my own and I firmly believe they're onto something with much of it.

It goes beyond simply possession statistics. It's not a matter of not believing the Leafs were "such a good team" - it's more that some of their success was very likely unsustainable given those areas tend to regress over a full 82-game season.

Last season the Leafs were on pace for 97 points over a full year; my prediction has them at 89 and just outside of the postseason. That difference is directly related to their extremely high shooting percentage, poor possession, etc. and the tendency of teams that have won that way in the past to be unable to sustain that.

I don't think that eight-point difference is that significant a decline; other analytics guys are predicting the Leafs to be one of the worst teams in the NHL, which is far too extreme given they should improve in some areas, like on the blueline.

As always with sports, not everything is predictable - the Leafs could always surprise again.

We have high shooting percentage, maybe because we have great goal scorers who dont just shoot the puck at the net from absurd angles. Your logic makes no sense

Will the Sens have a huge drop in points because of Anderson's once in a lifetime, insane SV%?

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Why do people treat hockey like baseball?

Why are people so allergic to stats?

If ~gut feeling~ is a superior predictive method to simple stats or advanced stats, let's see some evidence for it.

We have high shooting percentage, maybe because we have great goal scorers who dont just shoot the puck at the net from absurd angles. Your logic makes no sense

Will the Sens have a huge drop in points because of Anderson's once in a lifetime, insane SV%?

You're right, no other team in the league has goal-scorers even remotely comparable to the Leafs. You'd think if the Leafs system was so effective that other teams would be emulating it to keep such high sh%, no?

As for Anderson:

2010-11 Ottawa Senators NHL 18 0 0 1055 36 1 2 2.05 11 5 1 553 0.939 -
2012-13 Ottawa Senators NHL 24 0 0 1421 40 0 3 1.69 12 9 2 637 0.941

Wow, there's no way he could reproduce his once-in-a-lifetime, insane save % other than in a similar stretch of games 2 years ago. But you're right in one sense - the chances of him maintaining such a sv% over 60+ games are low. Not impossible, since Thomas managed it, but unlikely. Just like the Leafs are unlikely to maintain such a high sh% over 82 games.

 

[Garbs]

Why are people so allergic to stats?

If ~gut feeling~ is a superior predictive method to simple stats or advanced stats, let's see some evidence for it.

I'll get back to you at the end of the season.

 

[Duffman955]

Why are people so allergic to stats?

If ~gut feeling~ is a superior predictive method to simple stats or advanced stats, let's see some evidence for it.

Leafs making playoffs last year. Bam there's your proof. Need more?

 

[Kibago]

sounds about right. us/Sens/Habs will be close to each other = all 3 could get in if Bruins or Wings falter or only 1 if Tampa has a good year, but we'll be close to Ottawa and Montreal either way. hopefully ahead of them!

 

[achtungbaby]

Hi guys -

I've been following hockey's new stats for years and years, and reading all of the research behind it, too. People like Gabriel Desjardins and Eric Tulsky are very bright guys, and they've published tons and tons of analysis which shows why this type of analysis has predictive value. I've had the benefit of being able to ask them questions and breakdown their work on my own and I firmly believe they're onto something with much of it.

It goes beyond simply possession statistics. It's not a matter of not believing the Leafs were "such a good team" - it's more that some of their success was very likely unsustainable given those areas tend to regress over a full 82-game season.

Last season the Leafs were on pace for 97 points over a full year; my prediction has them at 89 and just outside of the postseason. That difference is directly related to their extremely high shooting percentage, poor possession, etc. and the tendency of teams that have won that way in the past to be unable to sustain that.

I don't think that eight-point difference is that significant a decline; other analytics guys are predicting the Leafs to be one of the worst teams in the NHL, which is far too extreme given they should improve in some areas, like on the blueline.

As always with sports, not everything is predictable - the Leafs could always surprise again.

I'm hoping for the best but I can't disagree here. I've picked the Leafs to either sneak into the playoffs or to finish anywhere in the bottom 10. It's not a popular opinion, but so much has to go right this year for any hope of repeating last years surprise success.

 

[achtungbaby]

Leafs making playoffs last year. Bam there's your proof. Need more?

Yes.

 

[Duffman955]

Yes.

Ducks made the playoffs last year.

 

[Duffman955]

Why are people so allergic to stats?

If ~gut feeling~ is a superior predictive method to simple stats or advanced stats, let's see some evidence for it.



You're right, no other team in the league has goal-scorers even remotely comparable to the Leafs. You'd think if the Leafs system was so effective that other teams would be emulating it to keep such high sh%, no?

As for Anderson:

2010-11 Ottawa Senators NHL 18 0 0 1055 36 1 2 2.05 11 5 1 553 0.939 -
2012-13 Ottawa Senators NHL 24 0 0 1421 40 0 3 1.69 12 9 2 637 0.941

Wow, there's no way he could reproduce his once-in-a-lifetime, insane save % other than in a similar stretch of games 2 years ago. But you're right in one sense - the chances of him maintaining such a sv% over 60+ games are low. Not impossible, since Thomas managed it, but unlikely. Just like the Leafs are unlikely to maintain such a high sh% over 82 games.

OOH, you are showing an 18 game stretch of his play. That isnt even a quarter of a season. while leafs played at a 97 point rate for more than half a season.

 

[Ari91]

Detroit was 10-2-0 against the former NE Division in the last 3 years, with Toronto, Boston, Ottawa and Buffalo not putting up much of a fight.

I'm assuming you mean in the last 4 years since Detroit didn't play any Eastern teams due to the lockout last season.

If Detroit does in fact have a 10-2-0 record against the former NE Division over the past 4 years, how can you say the Leafs didn't put up much of a fight when they were responsible for the only 2 regulation losses that the Red Wings had (assuming that your numbers are correct)?

2011-2012 - Leafs (4) vs Red Wings (3)
2010-2011 - Red Wings (4) vs Leafs (2)
2009-2010 - Leafs (5) vs Red Wings (1)

 

[Canada4Gold]

my prediction

Boston
Ottawa
Toronto
Detroit (W)
Montreal (W)
Tampa Bay
Florida
Buffalo

Pittsburgh
Washington
Columbus
Rangers
Islanders
Jersey
Carolina
Philly

St. Louis
Chicago
Dallas
Minnesota
Winnipeg
Nashville
Colorado

Los Angeles
Anaheim
Phoenix
San Jose (W)
Edmonton (W)
Vancouver
Calgary

Boston d. Detroit in 5
Toronto d. Ottawa in 6

Pittsburgh d. Montreal in 7
Columbus d. Washington in 7

St. Louis d. San Jose in 6
Chicago d. Dallas in 5

Los Angeles d. Edmonton in 6
Phoenix d. Anaheim in 7

Toronto d. Boston in 6

Pittsburgh d. Columbus in 4

St. Louis d. Chicago in 7

Los Angeles d. Phoenix in 5

Pittsburgh d. Toronot in 6

St. Louis d. Los Angeles in 7

St. Louis d. Pittsburgh in 6

 

[Leaf Rocket]

MacArthur, Grabo, and Frattin were crappy third liners on the crappy leafs, and now they're all key second liners on "true contenders".

Raymond and Bolland were 2nd liners on "true contenders", and now they're just crappy thjrd liners on the crappy leafs.

This is hilarious true and funny. Bravo Zeke

 

[SprDaVE]

Hi guys -

I've been following hockey's new stats for years and years, and reading all of the research behind it, too. People like Gabriel Desjardins and Eric Tulsky are very bright guys, and they've published tons and tons of analysis which shows why this type of analysis has predictive value. I've had the benefit of being able to ask them questions and breakdown their work on my own and I firmly believe they're onto something with much of it.

It goes beyond simply possession statistics. It's not a matter of not believing the Leafs were "such a good team" - it's more that some of their success was very likely unsustainable given those areas tend to regress over a full 82-game season.

Last season the Leafs were on pace for 97 points over a full year; my prediction has them at 89 and just outside of the postseason. That difference is directly related to their extremely high shooting percentage, poor possession, etc. and the tendency of teams that have won that way in the past to be unable to sustain that.

I don't think that eight-point difference is that significant a decline; other analytics guys are predicting the Leafs to be one of the worst teams in the NHL, which is far too extreme given they should improve in some areas, like on the blueline.

As always with sports, not everything is predictable - the Leafs could always surprise again.

Thanks for the reply. I had a feeling you'd be reading.

While I do enjoy reading advanced stats like possession stats and other stats in the same nature, the main concern with them is that they can change so much from one season to another. Using the stats from a season ago can be misleading as the new season can be the bipolar opposite of the season before. With the Leafs being the worst in that category, I think it's safe to say that the chances of them repeating such poor possession stats seems rather unlikely, no? Just like it seems unlikely the Leafs will be such a good shooting team again? Surely losing Grabovski can't be the epitome of our success here?

I do not have the data in front of me to be able to give an accurate statement on this but I do know that the Leafs were very good in terms of their possession and other advanced stats in [most of] the years where they were a terrible team. Their PK was abysmal and their shooting percentages were among the lowest. I don't think many analysts were rushing to tell us poor Leaf fans how unlucky we were in those seasons and that we should be better than what the season reflected. They didn't because we just sucked, period. But for some reason, we were simply lucky this past season... weird how that works.

I can admit that the Leafs need to prove a lot of doubters wrong because they haven't earned the respect. A good year in a short season won't earn you much respect. They definitely WILL need to improve on their puck possession and cutting down shots, which is just an obvious statement. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that having the puck instead of the the other team is better.

I think everyone can agree though that they took BIG steps in the right direction this past season, improving in a lot of areas where they were terrible in previous years. They added some good veterans in order to hopefully keep trending upwards.

Cheers.

 

[Binary Code]

I think Toronto and Ottawa battle for the division. Both have a good mix of scoring and defense and goaltending should not be an issue for either.
Boston and Detroit are next. I think too many people have bought into the 'inferior' east crap and Detroit is in for a shock. Their goaltending (to me) is still suspect an they have yet to even adequately replace Lidstrom. They're not getting any younger and with the crash and bang of the Atlantic, those bodies may not hold up. They also have Alfie now, which is a recipe for underachieving. Boston's offence seems suspect to me. I hope Iggy has something left in the tank. I guess we'll see if the Loui Ericksson hype train is legit. I think the Habs are a step behind the top four. They have some top guys (PK, Pac, Galchenyuk) but they just seem so streaky. You never know which Carey Price will show up, and what's plan B?
Tampa could finish anywhere in this division, but there are just too many holes, goaltending chief among them.
Florida is another team that you just never seem to know what you're getting. If Thomas can still play they may surprise people.
Buffalo? Well, at least they got Clarkson and Kessel suspended. That's something right?

Therefor,
1. Ottawa
2. Toronto
3. Detroit
4. Boston
5. Montreal
6. Tampa
7. Florida
8. Buffalo

Your ranking is a joke.

1. Boston
2. Detroit
3/4. Toronto
3/4. Montreal
5. Ottawa

 

[Gobias Industries]

I think Toronto and Ottawa battle for the division. Both have a good mix of scoring and defense and goaltending should not be an issue for either.
Boston and Detroit are next. I think too many people have bought into the 'inferior' east crap and Detroit is in for a shock. Their goaltending (to me) is still suspect an they have yet to even adequately replace Lidstrom. They're not getting any younger and with the crash and bang of the Atlantic, those bodies may not hold up. They also have Alfie now, which is a recipe for underachieving. Boston's offence seems suspect to me. I hope Iggy has something left in the tank. I guess we'll see if the Loui Ericksson hype train is legit. I think the Habs are a step behind the top four. They have some top guys (PK, Pac, Galchenyuk) but they just seem so streaky. You never know which Carey Price will show up, and what's plan B?
Tampa could finish anywhere in this division, but there are just too many holes, goaltending chief among them.
Florida is another team that you just never seem to know what you're getting. If Thomas can still play they may surprise people.
Buffalo? Well, at least they got Clarkson and Kessel suspended. That's something right?

Therefor,
1. Ottawa
2. Toronto
3. Detroit
4. Boston
5. Montreal
6. Tampa
7. Florida
8. Buffalo

Four seasons in a row of over 25 goals, and he's played 500 career games...

I can't imagine how skeptical you are of Clarkson...

 

[Damisoph]

I would love to see how the great teams in the 70s, 80s and 90s (Habs, Flyers, Bruins, Islanders, Oilers, Penguins, Red Wings) fared in Corsi/Fenwick. I suppose that's impossible now though?

 

[Renegade]

I think the Leafs will compete for 1st. Detroit doesn't impress me most nights and Boston isn't the same team as 2 years ago.

ALSO: if the Atlantic is more competitive than the Metropolitan, 5 teams can make the playoffs while the other conference only has 3. I love that rule. No more crappy divisions.

 

[Benttheknee]

People are just used to slotting the wing in a playoff spot. Their (Ottawa) lineup lacks depth and their core players are on the downswing.

Ottawa is one of the deeper teams in the league, and their core is young.

IMO Toronto is a wildcard team, Ottawa is in the top 3.

Detroit - Solid team, coach, easier schedule
Boston - Built for the playoffs, not for the regula season
Ottawa - Strong deep team
Toronto - High scoring, Solid goalies, messy defense
Tampa Bay - High scoing, ok goalies, messy defense
Montreal - Good team, but I think they struggle being to small
Buffalo - Blah team, some good young pieces
Florida - Picked up solid vets to insulate the kids

 

[Mess]

Boston's offence seems suspect to me. I hope Iggy has something left in the tank. I guess we'll see if the Loui Eriksson hype train is legit.
Therefor,

Loui Eriksson hype?

2008-2009 - Dallas Stars - 82 games 36-27-63 points
2009-2010 - Dallas Stars - 82 games 29-42-71 points
2010-2011 - Dallas Stars - 79 games 27-46-73 points
2011-2012 - Dallas Stars - 82 games 26-45-71 points
2012-2013 - Dallas Stars - 48 games 12-17-29 points

This guy is as consistent as they come and missed only 3 games over the last 5 years scoring between 25-30 goals and 70 points.

 

[Damisoph]

I'd like one of the people touting Ottawa as a strong contender this year to spare the hyperbole and actually tell me why they're going to be so good. I'm not trying to hate, I just don't see why, on paper, they're a contender. Sure they have one of, if not the best, D in the league, and a good top line. Where is the depth everyone talks about? Maybe it's just me.

 

[Mess]

I'd like one of the people touting Ottawa as a strong contender this year to spare the hyperbole and actually tell me why they're going to be so good. I'm not trying to hate, I just don't see why, on paper, they're a contender. Sure they have one of, if not the best, D in the league, and a good top line. Where is the depth everyone talks about? Maybe it's just me.

Well Leafs and Sens finished 1 single point (OTL) difference last year and they did it missing their #1 C Spezza, #1 D Karlsson for nearly entire season and #1 G for 1/2 most of the season. Paul Maclean their coach won the Jack Adams.

In comparison

Ottawa Advantage
Coach: Maclean (Jack Adams) >> Carlyle
#1 C : Spezza >> Bozak/Kadri
#1 D : Karlsson >> Phaneuf
#1 G : Anderson >> Reimer/Bernier
2012 GA: Ottawa (104 #2 overall) >> Leafs (133 #18 overall)
PK% : Ottawa (#1) >> Toronto (#2)

Leafs Advantage:
2012 GF: Toronto (145 #6th overall) >> Ottawa (116 #26 overall) ** But missing Spezza and Karlsson their top 2 offensive players.

In which categories are the Leafs better then the Sens?.

If the Leafs were missing the equivalent of Spezza (Kessel), Karlsson (Phaneuf) and Anderson (Reimer) for most of last year would they have registered just one less point than they did?

 

[Gobias Industries]

Well Leafs and Sens finished 1 single point (OTL) difference last year and they did it missing their #1 C Spezza, #1 D Karlsson for nearly entire season and #1 G for 1/2 most of the season. Paul Maclean their coach won the Jack Adams.

In comparison

Ottawa Advantage
Coach: Maclean (Jack Adams) >> Carlyle
#1 C : Spezza >> Bozak/Kadri
#1 D : Karlsson >> Phaneuf
#1 G : Anderson >> Reimer/Bernier
2012 GA: Ottawa (104 #2 overall) >> Leafs (133 #18 overall)
PK% : Ottawa (#1) >> Toronto (#2)

Leafs Advantage:
2012 GF: Toronto (145 #6th overall) >> Ottawa (116 #26 overall) ** But missing Spezza and Karlsson their top 2 offensive players.

In which categories are the Leafs better then the Sens?.

If the Leafs were missing the equivalent of Spezza (Kessel), Karlsson (Phaneuf) and Anderson (Reimer) for most of last year would they have registered just one less point than they did?

I don't think it's as one sided as you're suggesting, but to pile on, 30 goal scorer Milan Michalek missed most of last season too.