TSN: Standings projection: Leafs ranked 4th in Atlantic

[Budsfan]

I don't know how much this will change statistics and how people use them but it is an interesting article, Brian Burke's take on it is almost the same as mine, good or bad and maybe only even as a we dinosaurs may view it.....LOL

More NHL teams turning to advanced stats

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/more-nhl-teams-turning-to-advanced-analytics/

The article cites Calgary Flames president of hockey operations Brian Burke’s declaration that, “Statistics are like a lamp post to a drunk-useful for support, but not for illumination.”

Burke’s brand of thinking may still represent the majority of the league, but there are signs of change.

 

[Pyrophorus]

stupid, isles will finish 2nd in the metropolitan

I had them at 3rd (last playoff spot in the Met), but the NYR aren't strong.

 

[zeke]

So wins and losses record directly verses an opponent is skewing the results, but points per game scored is a much more accurate way to measure wins and losses and success when predicting future results.

Interesting

yes, the amount of points per game (i.e. 2pts for a win, 1pts for an OTL/SOL) a team accumulates is the only way to compare wins/losses between two different sample sizes.

 

[Eyedea]

thank god New Jersey is out of our division. They are far and away the most boring team

They never were in our division?

 

[Vexed]

yes, the amount of points per game (i.e. 2pts for a win, 1pts for an OTL/SOL) a team accumulates is the only way to compare wins/losses between two different sample sizes.

Blanket win/loss arguments only hold minimal weight anyways since teams face different competition.

 

[Mr Scarface*]

I rank us before that soft Ottawa club clearly.

 

[Leafs87]

They never were in our division?

I know but there was a good chance they could have ended up in our division with NYI and NYR, since Buff is with us, and make Florida and TB with the other teams in the other division. Geographically it actually would have made more sense.

 

[Mess]

Blanket win/loss arguments only hold minimal weight anyways since teams face different competition.

Detroit was 10-2-0 against the former NE Division in the last 3 years, with Toronto, Boston, Ottawa and Buffalo not putting up much of a fight.

 

[Duffman955]

Boston and Ottawa are. Ottawa upgraded their scoring, re-signed all their important players, didn't lose anything that would cost them, and will have Karlsson and Spezza for the full season. Boston lost a step but still have better goaltending and a better forward corp then Toronto does.

Detroit is arguably better then Toronto and Montreal is a close contender. 4th is going to be a tight race. You can blame Bozak, goons, and a lack of a 1st pairing defender or an all star goalie for that.

Leafs were neck and neck with Boston last year. We improved, they didn't. Ottawa was a 7th place team and even with karlsson and spezza, were completely destroyed by Pitts.

I don't see how any of these teams are clearly better than us.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Leafs were neck and neck with Boston last year. We improved, they didn't. Ottawa was a 7th place team and even with karlsson and spezza, were completely destroyed by Pitts.

I don't see how any of these teams are clearly better than us.

Easy - because we're Toronto, God forbid we get any kind of credit.

Sens made lateral changes (Alfreddson/Ryan for goals)
Detroit picked up some more PP help (Alfreddson) and added Weiss.
Boston lost a huge chunk of players.
We added experience and a better goalie as a backup (no offense to scrivens).

I said it this summer. I don't see anyone in this division simply "running away with it." nor would I "give" anything away. Bruins/Leafs/Habs/Wings/Habs/Sens (outside chance, Tampa) have a legit chance of winning the division.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Detroit was 10-2-0 against the former NE Division in the last 3 years, with Toronto, Boston, Ottawa and Buffalo not putting up much of a fight.

You know those 2 losses are from us right? We've beaten them twice the last three times we've played them. I'd say we've put up a pretty good fight.

Every other NE team lost every time they played Detroit, except Montreal who won once against them in 3 tries.

 

[SprDaVE]

Leafs were neck and neck with Boston last year. We improved, they didn't. Ottawa was a 7th place team and even with karlsson and spezza, were completely destroyed by Pitts.

I don't see how any of these teams are clearly better than us.

Most analysts believe we were very fortunate to finish where we finished. Basically they are saying we were lucky, not good. Our advanced stats were among the lowest (Corsi, Fenwick, etc).

This is why people like Mirtle and Pronman places us so low, because they value the input of advanced stats so high in their methods of ranking.

Mirtle especially has been moaning and *****ing about them for over a year now. He couldn't believe the Leafs were such a good team because of their poor advanced stats. I guess he still doesn't see them improving.

 

[Pi]

Most analysts believe we were very fortunate to finish where we finished. Basically they are saying we were lucky, not good. Our advanced stats were among the lowest (Corsi, Fenwick, etc).

This is why people like Mirtle and Pronman places us so low, because they value the input of advanced stats so high in their methods of ranking.

Mirtle especially has been moaning and *****ing about them for over a year now. He couldn't believe the Leafs were such a good team because of their poor advanced stats. I guess he still doesn't see them improving.

Those two go above and beyond in using advanced stats.

I don't think we were lucky at all last year. We didn't have a goalie that was playing .940SV (Anderson), we did have a high SH% but we have traditionally shot at high percentages for the last 5 years, we were average defensively and above average offensively.

If anything, we were unlucky last year.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

Detroit was 10-2-0 against the former NE Division in the last 3 years, with Toronto, Boston, Ottawa and Buffalo not putting up much of a fight.

C'mon Mess..Way to lump Toronto in that group. Leafs were 2-1-0 against Detroit in the last 3 years. Meaning Detroit was 9-0-0 against the Boston, Ottawa, Buffalo.

 

[Pi]

You know those 2 losses are from us right? We've beaten them twice the last three times we've played them. I'd say we've put up a pretty good fight.

Every other NE team lost every time they played Detroit, except Montreal who won once against them in 3 tries.

Detroit v. Toronto will always be a toss up...no matter where the teams are in the standings. The all time record, the all time playoff record suggest the same thing.

Both teams are about ~.500 against each other, give or take a few wins/losses.

 

[Duffman955]

Most analysts believe we were very fortunate to finish where we finished. Basically they are saying we were lucky, not good. Our advanced stats were among the lowest (Corsi, Fenwick, etc).

This is why people like Mirtle and Pronman places us so low, because they value the input of advanced stats so high in their methods of ranking.

Mirtle especially has been moaning and *****ing about them for over a year now. He couldn't believe the Leafs were such a good team because of their poor advanced stats. I guess he still doesn't see them improving.

So you are saying these "experts" think we had 48+7 games of luck and skill had nothing to do with it.

Maybe we should flip a coin for the cup next time.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Most analysts believe we were very fortunate to finish where we finished. Basically they are saying we were lucky, not good. Our advanced stats were among the lowest (Corsi, Fenwick, etc).

This is why people like Mirtle and Pronman places us so low, because they value the input of advanced stats so high in their methods of ranking.

Mirtle especially has been moaning and *****ing about them for over a year now. He couldn't believe the Leafs were such a good team because of their poor advanced stats. I guess he still doesn't see them improving.

that explains a lot, if everything is being ranked on advanced stats.
Toronto Maple Leafs, first stanley cup winner to totally screw up Corsi/Fenwick.

 

[Quares27]

Leafs were neck and neck with Boston last year. We improved, they didn't. Ottawa was a 7th place team and even with karlsson and spezza, were completely destroyed by Pitts.

I don't see how any of these teams are clearly better than us.

Ottawa also had a crazy high save percentage. I think their team SV% was around .935 or something. Compare that to us who everyone said got very good goaltending last season and we were under .920. Their scoring will go up but that SV% will drop by quite a bit and that's going to bring them down way more than people think. And on top of that Anderson has only been great in half seasons.

 

[AvroArrow]

Why is Ottawa up at no.3 ? Craig Anderson single handedly took that team to the post season. They had the might smurfs in round 1, and then got manhandled in the 2nd. They do have Spezza/Karllsson/Ryan, but we annihilated that team last year. I have the leafs at no.2 and possibly no.1 in our division.

 

[Penalty Kill Icing*]

You guys believe what Mess says thru stats?

He is ideal example of using selective stats. His latest one of Leafs being part of the group against whom Detroit is 10-2-0 is an ideal example. Even if Leafs were the better team in that matchup.

 

[cyris]

You guys believe what Mess says thru stats?

He is ideal example of using selective stats. His latest one of Leafs being part of the group against whom Detroit is 10-2-0 is an ideal example. Even if Leafs were the better team in that matchup.

And also fails to mention Detroit had one of the greatest Dmen and players in NHL history in their lineup for all those games in Nick Lidstrom.

Someone they didn't have last year when they struggled to make the playoffs and someone they wont have this year. The Wings and the former NE teams haven't played since 2 seasons ago and thy aren't the same teams now they were then. Teams like Toronto and Ottawa have greatly improved and Detroit has taken a step back.

 

[Tak7]

I feel ottawa is being overrated. I know they're healthy now, but I dunno. I just can't see it. Maybe it's the bias kicking in but I try not to

I feel the same way about Ottawa as well, but I'm also having problems trying to figure out what it is I don't like about them - maybe it is my bias also.

I don't like their depth scoring.

I also feel as though Detroit are being badly overrated as well - I don't like their D-core at all, and for some reason feel as though they could be in the dog-fight all season for the wildcard spot.

 

[James Mirtle]

This is why people like Mirtle and Pronman places us so low, because they value the input of advanced stats so high in their methods of ranking.

Mirtle especially has been moaning and *****ing about them for over a year now. He couldn't believe the Leafs were such a good team because of their poor advanced stats. I guess he still doesn't see them improving.

Hi guys -

I've been following hockey's new stats for years and years, and reading all of the research behind it, too. People like Gabriel Desjardins and Eric Tulsky are very bright guys, and they've published tons and tons of analysis which shows why this type of analysis has predictive value. I've had the benefit of being able to ask them questions and breakdown their work on my own and I firmly believe they're onto something with much of it.

It goes beyond simply possession statistics. It's not a matter of not believing the Leafs were "such a good team" - it's more that some of their success was very likely unsustainable given those areas tend to regress over a full 82-game season.

Last season the Leafs were on pace for 97 points over a full year; my prediction has them at 89 and just outside of the postseason. That difference is directly related to their extremely high shooting percentage, poor possession, etc. and the tendency of teams that have won that way in the past to be unable to sustain that.

I don't think that eight-point difference is that significant a decline; other analytics guys are predicting the Leafs to be one of the worst teams in the NHL, which is far too extreme given they should improve in some areas, like on the blueline.

As always with sports, not everything is predictable - the Leafs could always surprise again.

 

[Pi]

I feel the same way about Ottawa as well, but I'm also having problems trying to figure out what it is I don't like about them - maybe it is my bias also.

I don't like their depth scoring.

I also feel as though Detroit are being badly overrated as well - I don't like their D-core at all, and for some reason feel as though they could be in the dog-fight all season for the wildcard spot.

I think the reason people have them so high is because they have the three most positions locked down.

#1, #1D and a #1G.

I don't get what is so special about Ottawa but they don't need to be special to make the playoffs if they have Spezza, Karlsson and Anderson playing the way they have.

They are FAR from being real contenders though.

 

[Mimico]

I think the reason people have them so high is because they have the three most positions locked down.

#1, #1D and a #1G.

I don't get what is so special about Ottawa but they don't need to be special to make the playoffs if they have Spezza, Karlsson and Anderson playing the way they have.

They are FAR from being real contenders though.

People are just used to slotting the wing in a playoff spot. Their lineup lacks depth and their core players are on the downswing.