Stamkos vs Tavares

[authentic]

I’m not a huge fan of +/-, but Stamkos is the only minus player on a Lightning team that is +84. His underlying numbers are meh as a whole and flat out bad when you separate him from Kucherov and he’s getting heavy offensive usage against 2nd tier competition. His 5V5 scoring rate has declined from last season.

Outside of some improved numbers on a deadly PP that doesn’t run through him, how is this a Renaissance year for him?

It's not. People just look at points.

 

[authentic]

Tavares is just as good offensively, better at ES and better defensively, not really sure how Stamkos is winning this so easily.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

It's not. People just look at points.

Even if you just look at points, he finished 12th last season in points and and 11th in points per game. This season, he currently ranks 13th in points and 16th in points per game.

In the same vein that the NHL transitioning to a higher scoring league does not make this a career year for Tavares, it does not make it a renaissance year for Stamkos. Although I do think it is actually a renaissance year for Tavares based on his underlying numbers and his production at even strength.

Anyhow, I’m taking Tavares. Either guy is going to be San Jose’s best forward immediately and Tavares has actually had success in that role in the past. Stamkos was always an elite shooter riding shotgun with one of Kucherov or MSL, but he was never really a truly dominant, play driving #1 center. On top of that, Tavares is a better defensive player who brings comparable offense and has far the far better track record in the playoffs. $2.5M is splitting hairs when it comes to picking your #1 center.

 

[authentic]

Even if you just look at points, he finished 12th last season in points and and 11th in points per game. This season, he currently ranks 13th in points and 16th in points per game.

In the same vein that the NHL transitioning to a higher scoring league does not make this a career year for Tavares, it does not make it a renaissance year for Stamkos. Although I do think it is actually a renaissance year for Tavares based on his underlying numbers and his production at even strength.

Anyhow, I’m taking Tavares. Either guy is going to be San Jose’s best forward immediately and Tavares has actually had success in that role in the past. Stamkos was always an elite shooter riding shotgun with one of Kucherov or MSL, but he was never really a truly dominant, play driving #1 center. On top of that, Tavares is a better defensive player who brings comparable offense and has far the far better track record in the playoffs. $2.5M is splitting hairs when it comes to picking your #1 center.

Yeah when I said points I meant not even relative to the league. People see the higher point total and assume he's better. If Kucherov isn't even on McDavid's level because he plays for Tampa then how is Stamkos clearly better than Tavares?

 

[Regal]

I’m not a huge fan of +/-, but Stamkos is the only minus player on a Lightning team that is +84. His underlying numbers are meh as a whole and flat out bad when you separate him from Kucherov and he’s getting heavy offensive usage against 2nd tier competition. His 5V5 scoring rate has declined from last season.

Outside of some improved numbers on a deadly PP that doesn’t run through him, how is this a Renaissance year for him?

As others have said, something seemed to click in him after that terrible Nashville game on November 1st. Since then, hes's put up 32 goals and 71 points in 56 games, and is playing like the shooter he needs to be to be an elite player. Last year, he was overpassing the puck, which has never been his strong suit, but he picked up points due to team and playing with Kucherov, with a ton of secondary assists. This year's stretch has come while being the go-to guy on his line, with Palat and Gourde. Good players, but no Kucherov or Marner, who Tavares gets to play with. I wouldn't say he's been better than his 60 goal year but he's probably been comparable to his other pre-injury years, especially when you keep in mind he's not playing with a player like St. Louis.

Of course this means cutting off part of the year, which I'm never a fan of. But it does seem like there was a specific change in his play rather than simply a hot streak, and he is a player who has shown he can do it before.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

As others have said, something seemed to click in him after that terrible Nashville game on November 1st. Since then, hes's put up 32 goals and 71 points in 56 games, and is playing like the shooter he needs to be to be an elite player. Last year, he was overpassing the puck, which has never been his strong suit, but he picked up points due to team and playing with Kucherov, with a ton of secondary assists. This year's stretch has come while being the go-to guy on his line, with Palat and Gourde. Good players, but no Kucherov or Marner, who Tavares gets to play with.

66% of Stamkos’ points this season have come with Kucherov on the ice.

He may only spend just over 30% of his 5V5 minutes with Kucherov on the ice (which is still plenty) but his production is still heavily reliant on Kucherov. And in the minutes he spends away from Kucherov at 5V5, he doesnt take on defensive usage or top competition, and his results are still very poor.

Even if you just look at numbers from your sample size of November 2 through today, all at 5-on-5, separating with and without Kucherov. He doesn’t do very well without him at all.

It might feel like he has become the go-to-guy or whatever and has turned into an elite player again, or he is having a renaissance year, because commentators, analysts and fans love to push that kind of narrative. But there is no evidence to suggest that. And I’m shocked to see somebody like DBF saying otherwise since he generally tends to be objective about his players and he doesn’t tend to fall for the cliches.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

they're pretty close

 

[JoVel]

Stamkos is about a billion times better now than he's been for the last ~5 years. As said previously I'd have easily taken Tavares even last season but Stamkos has improved so much it's him right now, especially with being 2.5 million cheaper.

 

[JoVel]

Yeah when I said points I meant not even relative to the league. People see the higher point total and assume he's better. If Kucherov isn't even on McDavid's level because he plays for Tampa then how is Stamkos clearly better than Tavares?

Watch a few games and maybe you'll understand. Stamkos scored 43 goals in 2014-15, most Tampa fand said he sucked. 86 points last season, he was still pretty bad. We've been watching Stamkos being a ghost of his former self since 2014 so we know when he's playing good.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Pretty even talent/production-wise but with the weapons we have on the PP (Kucherov, Point, Hedman) he's the perfect complement with his one of a kind one-timer from the left side. Factor in their contracts and it's easily Stamkos.

 

[Newsworthy]

I took Tavares but it's close. Stamkos is a faster player so that to me closes the gap yet they seem similar talent wise. JT might be better defensively but it's because of effort which Steve could give if he desired.

 

[tony d]

Still Stamkos for me.

 

[Sky04]

I’m not a huge fan of +/-, but Stamkos is the only minus player on a Lightning team that is +84. His underlying numbers are meh as a whole and flat out bad when you separate him from Kucherov and he’s getting heavy offensive usage against 2nd tier competition. His 5V5 scoring rate has declined from last season.

Outside of some improved numbers on a deadly PP that doesn’t run through him, how is this a Renaissance year for him?

The eye test.......? Stamkos is a much more impactful player this year and not even playing with Kucherov. Tavares is glued to Marner who is the driver on that line.

You're starting to sound like DominicBoltsFan.

 

[BruinsBtn]

I'd take Tavares as a player easily but that's a lot of cap space.

 

[Sky04]

Tavares is just as good offensively, better at ES and better defensively, not really sure how Stamkos is winning this so easily.

Tavares better defensively? hahah that's funny.

Stamkos is out producing him also.

Of course it doesn't make sense if you're a leafs fan.

 

[Sky04]

Even if you just look at points, he finished 12th last season in points and and 11th in points per game. This season, he currently ranks 13th in points and 16th in points per game.

In the same vein that the NHL transitioning to a higher scoring league does not make this a career year for Tavares, it does not make it a renaissance year for Stamkos. Although I do think it is actually a renaissance year for Tavares based on his underlying numbers and his production at even strength.

Anyhow, I’m taking Tavares. Either guy is going to be San Jose’s best forward immediately and Tavares has actually had success in that role in the past. Stamkos was always an elite shooter riding shotgun with one of Kucherov or MSL, but he was never really a truly dominant, play driving #1 center. On top of that, Tavares is a better defensive player who brings comparable offense and has far the far better track record in the playoffs. $2.5M is splitting hairs when it comes to picking your #1 center.

Stamkos scored 60 goals and 97 points outscoring MSL by 23 points that season - Tavares has never sniffed a season that dominant. He's riding shotgun to Marner and is sitting 17th in league scoring.

I'll take the better center for cheaper.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The eye test.......? Stamkos is a much more impactful player this year and not even playing with Kucherov. Tavares is glued to Marner who is the driver on that line.

You're starting to sound like DominicBoltsFan.

52 of Stamkos’ 79 points have come with Kucherov on the ice. (66%)

Your eye test is so useless that it leads you to come to conclusions like “Stamkos is not even playing with Kucherov” and then you try and condescend me by comparing me to DBF because I use stats.

Yikes.

 

[I am not exposed]

If the caps were the same, I would take Tavares as I believe he is the better player. But due to the caps, I'll give this one to Stamkos.

 

[ESH]

yeah, he is faster than JT, just seems weird to me for stammer to be considered fast lol

Did you start watching hockey 3 years ago?

I realize Stamkos has lost a step, but he’s still a pretty good skater. He was very fast in his prime.

 

[JoVel]

52 of Stamkos’ 79 points have come with Kucherov on the ice. (66%)

Your eye test is so useless that it leads you to come to conclusions like “Stamkos is not even playing with Kucherov” and then you try and condescend me by comparing me to DBF because I use stats.

Yikes.

This is one of the instances where one can say "just watch the games". Anyone who knows anything about hockey can see that the difference between this year's and last year's Stamkos is night and day. You can give me all the fancy stats you want but that won't change the facts.

 

[WillTheThrill]

Too close to call for me.

 

[authentic]

Stamkos is about a billion times better now than he's been for the last ~5 years. As said previously I'd have easily taken Tavares even last season but Stamkos has improved so much it's him right now, especially with being 2.5 million cheaper.

Why isn't it showing up in the stats that he's any better then?

 

[JoVel]

Why isn't it showing up in the stats that he's any better then?

He's on pace to score most points since 2012 but ok.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Why isn't it showing up in the stats that he's any better then?

Being on pace for almost 100 points for the first time since he hit 95 or whatever his career high is isn't "showing up in the stats"?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

This is one of the instances where one can say "just watch the games". Anyone who knows anything about hockey can see that the difference between this year's and last year's Stamkos is night and day. You can give me all the fancy stats you want but that won't change the facts.

Okay then. Next time somebody tells me Sidney Crosby is better than Micheal Haley, I can say “just watch the games” and I will automatically win the argument. I don’t even need to provide any kind of reasoning why the eye test tells me that - I can say “just watch the games” and win every time. I can even add in a sly personal attack used to attack somebody’s credibility.

“Anyone who knows anything about hockey can see the difference between Micheal Haley and Sidney Crosby is night and day.”

But seriously, you do realize the stats are the facts, right? It’s a fact that Stamkos is the only minus player on a TB team that is +84 on the season. It’s a fact that Stamkos scores 66% of his points with Kucherov on the ice. And neither of those are fancy stats at all. The more fancy stats that do exist just further justify my initial line of thinking that Stamkos’ “renaissance year” doesn’t exist.

Being on pace for almost 100 points for the first time since he hit 95 or whatever his career high is isn't "showing up in the stats"?

It’s a higher scoring year in which he ranks lower in league-wide scoring than he did last year and he’s accumulating most of his points on an absolutely deadly PP where he isn’t the key cog. And all of the other stats suggest he is a marginally less effective 3-zone player than he was in previous years.